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STEPS Centre Annual Symposium 2013 – Credibility Across Cultures: expertise, uncertainty and the global politics of scientific advice, 6-7 February 2013. Professor Anne Glover CBE, Chief Scientific Adviser to the President of the European Commission keynote lecture.
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STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
What is the right balance between respecting evidence and living in the real world?
Professor Anne Glover CBE Chief Scientific Adviser
to the President of the European Commission
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
European leaders will discuss tomorrow whether to spend 80 billion Euro for research
and innovation
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Science and technology are part of everybody’s life
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
We accept the benefits – do we accept the risks?
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Estimated deaths per Terawatt hour
Percentage of world energy production
Source: www.susannahertrich.com
Risk perception and evidence are two different things
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Risk perception influences public opinion and, hence,
behaviour of politicians
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Societal perception of GMOs
Society A: GMOs are safe unless proven unsafe
Society B: GMOs are unsafe unless proven safe
Society C: GMOs are unsafe even if proven safe
Society D: GMOs are unsafe especially if proven safe
Society E: GMOs are safe even if proven unsafe
(taken from A. Golikov)
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
“GMO-free” municipalities in Flanders, Belgium
Source: Guy van den Eede
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Member States voting on EFSA scientific opinion
GMO approval
Source: EuropaBio, Approvals of GMOs in the European Union, Oct. 2011
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Salient points of EU GMO policy
• A rigorous safety assessment by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) based on the best possible science
• Post-market monitoring
• Labelling of GMOs and derived food and feed products at all stages (when present above 0.9%)
• Traceability from the point of production or import down to the table and vice versa
• Co-existence between organic, traditional and GM plant from the seed throughout the production chain
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Do we trust scientific evidence?
www.climatepedia.org
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Source: Eurobarometer, Special Edition 340 “Science and Technology” (2010)
Public support for science is decreasing
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
“Because of their knowledge, scientists have a power that makes them dangerous”
Source: Eurobarometer, Special Edition 340 “Science and Technology” (2010)
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Scientific evidence is sound and peer-
reviewed.
It evolves over time, but it doesn’t change from one government
to the next.
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
• The world has become much more complex (and, hence, confusing)
• The pace of technological change has increased
• People believe that "unwanted" new
technologies can be somehow de-invented
• Lack of information about the benefits of new technologies vis-à-vis the risks
So what’s the problem then?
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Why do we always discuss risk assessments - Why not discuss reward assessments?
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
As a society we need to take risks to make progress
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Source: European Commission
If we don't take the risk, others will take it!
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
The risk: Spending billions of pounds for a machine that smashes particles
Large Hadron Collider, Geneva
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
The reward: an unplanned "collateral" invention
that has changed our lives
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
We need to put risk in relation to reward to be able to take
informed decisions
© N
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phic
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Communication is the key
• Scientists need to show empathy for public concerns
• Scientists need to be honest about the facts they have and those they don't have
• Scientists need to communicate much more proactively – otherwise lobby groups will fill the void
• Scientists need to speak a language everybody understands
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
But you always need two to tango: We also need politicians who…
• are open to listen to the scientific evidence
• don’t cherry-pick just the science that suits their view of the world
• are transparent about their motivation when – for whatever good reason – they choose to ignore the evidence
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
All fine, but:
Scientists love uncertainty, while politicians hate it
© W
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ied G
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inger
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
What can science do about it?
• Reduce uncertainty as far as possible
• Communicate uncertainty by using illustrative examples
• Offer options for action rather than claiming to have the ultimate solution
• Flag where there is strong consensus in the scientific community, without ignoring minority opinions
Old style of communicating
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Scientific consensus is a powerful tool
Banning Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
Banning Dichlorodiphenyl- trichloroethane (DDT)
Banning Asbestos
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Example: Revision of the Biofuels Directive in the light of scientific evidence
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
The science-policy interface needs translators who are respected
on both sides to advise on what is consensus and what not
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
Wouldn't it be nice if each EU Member State had a Chief Scientific Adviser or its equivalent?
Government Chief Scientific Advisers in the EU / EU Member States
STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
It costs a lot of efforts to generate scientific evidence.
We shouldn't waste it.
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STEPS Centre Annual Symposium, University of Sussex, 6 Feb 2013
E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: EU_ScienceChief
Thank you for your attention!
