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Prof. DavidGreenwood
Professor, Advanced PropulsionSystems
WMG, The University of Warwick
Sponsors
Accelerating the UK Battery IndustryAutomotive needs and the Faraday Challenge
LCV17, September 2017
www.automotivecouncil.co.uk
Professor David GreenwoodAdvanced Propulsion SystemsWMG, The University of Warwick [email protected]
Battery is the defining component of an electrified vehicle
PowerPowerRangeRange
CostCost
LifeLife
Ride andHandlingRide andHandling
PackagePackage
Batteries are a major commercial opportunity for UK
Conventional VehicleOne third of conventional vehicle cost is powertrainUK manufactures 1.7M cars per year, EU makes 18M per yearAssuming constant volumes and average battery pack cost of £6000 car, and 50% EV/PHEV share by 2035
This represents a UK supply chain opportunity of >£5bn/year by 2035EU supply chain opportunity of over £50bn/yr at 2035Rate of EV/PHEV market growth determined by customer uptake
Uptake will be determined by vehicle cost, range, charging infrastructure and fiscal regime
Electric Vehicle
Motor and power electronics cost around60% of conventional powertrain
Battery costs around 3-5x currentpowertrain
Rest of vehicle costs similar as before –increased costs for HVAC, brakes andsuspension systems
Battery is >50% of overall vehicle value
£
Report Ref: p.1; p.9
Lithium Ion batteries are improving rapidlyCosts have fallen dramatically due totechnology, production volume andmarket dynamicsPack cost fallen from $1,000/kWh to$250/kWh in less than 8 years
Nykvist et al 2014
Volumetric energy density is increasingdue to better materials and cell structureDoubled in 15 yearsRequires continuous chemistry andmaterials innovation to continue
Industry structure for automotive batteries
Raw Materials Materials andElectrochemistry
Electrode,electrolyte,
separator, etc.Cell Manufacture Module,
Pack and BMS Vehicle Application 2nd life /Recycling
High Vol OEM
Tier 1 Low Vol OEM
Materials supplier (e.g. JM)
Cell Supplier (e.g. Panasonic)
Recycler
2nd User ?Industrial Chemists (e.g. 3M)
Mining/refining
Possible UK Industry Engagement for Automotive Batteries
Raw Materials Materials andElectrochemistry
Electrode,electrolyte,
separator, etc.Cell Manufacture Module,
Pack and BMS Vehicle Application 2nd life /Recycling
UK does not havemineral resources tosupport mining andrefinement of rawmaterials.
No import challenges.
Abundance of rawmaterials is not a majorconcern.
Infrastructure to mineand refine may notgrow fast enough.
Contribution of recycledmaterials in the future
UK academia and spin-outcompanies developmaterials for future.
Industrial chemicalscompanies (e.g. JM, BASF,3M) could produce powdermaterials in the UK fromimported raw materials.
Latent capability identifiedin adjacent sectors, e.g.paints, water treatment.
Alternatively, could beimported without difficulty.
Large companies (e.g. JM,Nissan) could producecoated electrodes,electrolytes andseparators in the UK
JV’s between OEMs andexisting overseasmanufacturers possible
Manufacturing processequipment can bedeveloped in the UK.
Comprises 50% of cell costand significant IP value.Best co-developed withcells
Alternatively, could beimported but have shelflife and transport issues.
Large scale cell assemblycompanies located inthe UK.Fastest achievedthrough foreign directinvestment/capability ?
Will be driven by UKdemand, and commoncell formats would easebusiness case
Possible route throughcollaborations betweenUK OEMs?
UK manufactured cellscould be export to EU.
Cells could be importedfrom Asia but with longlead time and transportissues, and maybe notlatest technology
Passenger car OEMs inUK could manufacturemodules and packs line-side to support vehiclesassembled in the UK.
UK based Tier 1 supplychain required tosupport lower volumeapplications (CV, OHV,taxi, etc.)
Alternatively modulesand/or packs can beimported but withsignificant logistics andcost impact.
Would increaselikelihood of cellassembly in UK.
High volume: vehicle andpack assembly highlylikely to be co-located.
Keep batteries, keepvehicle assembly. Losebatteries, possibly losevehicle assembly. Cellassembly investmentlikely to pivot on moduleand pack assemblylocations.
Manufacturing scale uprepresents a technicaland commercial risk.
End of life batterydisposal recognised assignificant economic andenvironmental concern.
2nd Life applicationsdemonstrated technicallybut commercial modelsuncertain.
Technologies lacking forlarge scale recycling andmaterials recovery.
Scarce and valuablematerials in particularrequire attention (rareearths, cobalt, etc.)
Report Ref: p.9-10
Significant improvements are necessary and possible in 20 year horizon
Cost
Now $130/kWh (cell)$280/kWh (pack)
2035 $50/kWh (cell)$100/kWh (pack)
Energy Density
Now 700Wh/l,250Wh/kg (cell)
2035 1400Wh/l, 500Wh/kg(cell)
Power Density
Now 3 kW/kg (pack)
2035 12 kW/kg (pack)
Safety
2035 eliminate thermalrunaway at pack level toreduce pack complexity
1st Life
Now 8 years (pack)
2035 15 years (pack)
Temperature
Now -20° to +60°C (cell)
2035 -40° to +80°C (cell)
Predictability
2035 full predictive modelsfor performance and aging
of battery
Recyclability
Now 10-50% (pack)
2035 95% (pack)
Research Challenges exist at all TRLs, for all parts of the supply chain
Disc
over
yTR
L 1-
3Ap
plic
atio
nTR
L 4-
6M
anuf
actu
reTR
L 7-
9
Materials andElectrochemistry
Electrode, electrolyte,separator, binder Cell Module,
Pack and BMSVehicle
Application2nd Life /Recycling
New knowledge /modelling of chemistrybehaviour
Materials discovery
Functional materials
Material synthesis /evaluation
Ageing / degradation
New knowledge /modelling of materialbehaviour
Rheology & mixing
Coating & structures
Additives
Ageing / degradation
New knowledge /modelling of cellbehaviour
Measurement andtesting techniques
Mechanical and thermaldesign / form
Ageing / degradation
New knowledge /modelling tools fordesign and reliabilityPrognostics anddiagnosticsMechanical and thermaldesign, BMS electronics.BMS algorithms /architecture
New knowledge /modelling of in-usebehaviour
Real world applicationsimulation
Duty cycle / key life tests
Physical and chemicalprocesses for materialrecovery
Material re-use options
Value modelling /circular economy
Synthesis at scale /manufacturingtechnologies
Electrodes flexible forpower and energy
Industrial validation andprocess control
Cell evaluation
Monitoring andmanaging degradation
Assembly
Configuration andmanufacture
Measurement andtesting
Joining / electricalcontacts
Pack scale thermalmanagement solutions
Field data analysis
Test & developmentprocesses
Vehicle integration,safety and control
Charging capability>200kW
Design for disassembly
BMS and diagnostics for2nd life use
Requirement forremanufacture
Volume manufacturingprocess
Industrial metrology
Supply chain integrationand logistics
Manufacturing Processand quality control
Industrial trial andvalidation
Design of manufacturingplants and qualitycontrol
EOL logistics anddismantling techniques
Full scale plant designand economics
Manufacture andassembly methods
Real world testing
Supply chain
Assembly methods
Manufacturing processand quality control
In-process testing
Optimisation
Synthesis at scale
Evaluation methods
Industrial validation
Report Ref: p.12-13
Automotive Industry Battery Challenge
Automotive Industry Battery Challenge Board(quarterly meetings; common governance with I-UK and APC activities)
Chair: Leading Senior Industrialist; Members: equal numbers senior industry (inc. Auto Council / battery industry) + academic / government. Definechallenges, provide market insight, review Institute & portfolio progress vs remit, escalation route in case of conflict
RESEARCH
DEVELOPMENT Innovate UK Dedicated I-UK CR&D Platform.Catapult investment to support facilities.
£30M/yr+match
SCALE-UP Advanced Propulsion Centre Dedicated Calls for manufacturer-led scale-upprojects.
£50M/yr+£25M/yr
INDUSTRIALISATION BEIS Existing mechanisms for infrastructure and co-ordination (RGF, LEPs…)
£20-40M/yr
Challenges set and renewedby Automotive IndustryBattery Challenge Board
BA
TT
ER
Y C
HA
LLE
NG
ES
Institution Management: ‘COO’ Programme Manager + admin supportOperational Board inc. partner universities + industry
UK BATTERY RESEARCH INSTITUTIONIntegrated research programmes (5-8 partner institutions)
Materials andElectrochemistry
Electrode,electrolyte,separator,
binder
Cell Module,Pack & BMS
VehicleApplication
2nd Life /Recycling
Automotive Council
£25M/yr+match
• Research networks: ESRN, Supergen, Midlands ERA, STFC• Catapult investments – HVMC (WMG, MTC, CPI, NCC)• APC Spoke network (WMG led) and EPSRC Energy Storage CDT
(Sheffield / Southampton)• National cell scale-up facility at WMG• Module and pack manufacturing pilot at WMG• Diamond synchrotron, Archer computing facility
UK has much of the critical research infrastructure required to succeed
• Innovate UK mechanisms exist to support this• Dedicated electrification theme within/alongside IDP programme could cover
both product and manufacturing technologies at TRL 3-6• Key themes
• Development of materials and manufacturing techniques for cell components andcells
• Development of module and pack designs and systems, including advanced BMSalgorithms
• Vehicle electrification concepts – including off-highway, bus and commercialvehicles
• Technology likely to be Li-ion based for next 8-10 years – short term focusshould be here
• For battery system future, can be used to build supply chain competencies• Skills development (design and manufacturing engineering) are a critical
output• HVM Catapult network can be used to develop manufacturing technologies
and opportunities for SMEs
Industry Strategy ChallengeFunds (ISFC)
Provide opportunity for projects inthis area. Energy Storage understoodto be a priority area, but mechanismto access not yet clear
CR&D develops promising technologies and new supply chains
Report Ref: p.4; p.7
• Design and manufacturing technologies for modules and packs areimmature with much potential for cost and performance improvement
• Techniques such as cell handling and testing, cell to bus-bar welding, inprocess testing, and end of line testing require development
• Centralised scale-up facilities such as WMG allow for sharing of capital costand acceleration of manufacturing learning
• Prior to full plant investment, pilot plants will be required by individualOEM’s to trial and develop high volume manufacturing processes,demonstrating “run-at-rate” with flexibility to cell and module format.Allows development of manufacturing KPIs and plant “blueprints”
• Advanced Propulsion Centre / Catapult mechanisms can be leveraged forsupport
• Process and skills (manufacturing engineering) development are a criticaloutput. Currently no clear mechanism for their delivery. Suggest APC remitcould be extended for apprentice / practitioner level training
Industrial scale-up delivers manufacturing competitiveness
Report Ref: p.4; p.7
• Low volume module and pack manufacture can be delivered with modestinvestment <£10M
• High volume cell, module and pack manufacturing plants cost £X00M to £XBn• Requires land, power, infrastructure, planning approval and local skills
(manufacturing)• Regional, high value investments via RGFs, LEPs, etc.
• Once investment made, easier to increase capacity than build new plant (locks inbenefit)
• Strong incentives present in many countries have influenced large scaleinvestment decisions. Cost of capital is critical
• Tesla/Panasonic “Gigafactory” claims 50GWh/year, $3.5bn, 500,000 cars/yr, 6,500 jobs
• Nissan Sunderland 2GWh/year, £250M, 60,000 cars/yr capacity, 350 jobs
• LG Chem to manufacture in Wroclaw, Poland, £300M, 100,000 cars
• Samsung to manufacture in Goed, Hungary, 2.5GWh/yr £300M, 50,000 vehicles
• A123 to build factory in Ostrava, Czech Republic for 12V and 48V Li-Ion systems
Significant investment required to build high volume battery factories
Report Ref: p.5; p.8
• Rapid growth of industry leaves skills shortage at all levels• Focus on skills and resources as well as technologies and facilities
• Undergraduate and postgraduate courses and intake needs to grow• Supported by STEM acceleration in primary and secondary education
• PhD/EngDs needed from academia for research and development• Mechanisms exist but volume needs to increase
• More design engineers required to support product development• Innovate UK projects assist this. Aligned EngDs would increase impact
• Manufacturing engineers required with experience in relevant processes• APC projects can help develop manufacturing design skills• Pilot plant investments could be aligned to apprenticeship training to increase
manufacturing skills
• Aftersales skills (servicing, repair and recovery) required to support growing fleet• Apprenticeships for new staff and re-skilling of existing staff
Skills
Report Ref: p.7-8
Linkage to other Sectors
• Many longer term electrochemistry developments (e.g. Li-Air) mayhave higher potential in grid storage applications than automotive
• Energy industry currently lags automotive with regard to mobilisingindustrial actors
• Same / similar academic actors will be relevant butdifferent industrial actors required (including digital)
• No desire to build parallel structure for this in future• Suggest future action to extend this mechanism to grid scale
storage as industrial actors emerge• Create parallel governance structure with required actors
• Similar situation exists for rail, marine and aerospace• Propose to extend remit of this activity once established and
new “customer base” emerges• Same challenge mechanism could be used to take research from other
sectors into UK battery research institution model
Report Ref: p.11
Thank you
www.automotivecouncil.co.uk
Professor David GreenwoodAdvanced Propulsion SystemsWMG, The University of Warwick [email protected]
