Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected] 3 Overview 1. Some Facts

ICT and Sustainability –

Issues beyond Climate Change

–

Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. HiltyTechnology and Society Lab

Empa Materials Science and Technology St.Gallen, Switzerland

2Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected]


Overview

1.

Some Facts about ICT

1.

A Life Cycle Perspective

2.

Towards a Conceptual Framework

3.

Conclusion



The ICT sector is responsible for 2 % of global GHG emissions.

ICT is an enabler to improve the energy efficiency of all other sectors and thus to reduce the remaining 98 %.The energy consumption of ICT is growing much faster than that of other sectors:2005-2020 in EU-27: +84 % (ICT) as compared to +15 % (all sectors)

Energy demand ofData centers in Germany

Progress in computing powerper electric powerSource: Mattern 2005

Source: Borderstep Institut 2009

?



ICT is a driver of development:Digital infrastructure overtakes other infrastructures.

ICT is the first technology which depends on more than half of the periodic table.

“We

are

too

poor

not

to invest

in ICT.”Meles Zenawi Asres, Prime Minister of Ethiopia

Source: AFP



Source: Behrendt et al. (2007) and Empa

Input to hardware

production: 12 57 metals in 25 years

Financed civilwar in Kongo

We may need itfor photvoltaics

In future

Welcome to the Club!

Backyard recycling (urban mining)

in poor countries



»

Manual Recycling in Poor

Countries

Hardware Recycling in South Africa

Source: Empa



»


Countries

Source: Empa

Source: Empa Source: Empa

Source: EmpaSource: Empa

Har

dwar

e re

cycl

ing

in G

uiyu

(Chi

na)



»


CountriesH

ardw

are

recy

clin

gin

Del

hi, I

ndia

Source: Empa Source: Empa

Source: EmpaSource: Empa



»


Countries

Manual extraction of copper from printed wiring boards in a typicalbackyard company with 12 workers in Delhi, India. Yield: 1-2 tons/month

Source: Empa



»


Countries

Manual extraction of gold from electronic waste


Overview

1.


1.


2.


3.

Conclusion


A

Life Cycle Perspective


A


»

PC Example

Example:Environmental Impacts over the life cycle of a desktop PCCalculated in Eco-Indicator Points (EIP) with Life CycleAssessment (LCA) methodology

Source: Eugster, M., Hischier, R., Huabo, D.: Key Environmental Impacts of the Chinese EEE-Industry – A Life Cycle Assessment Study. Empa and Tsinghua University, St.Gallen and Bejing (2007)

-30-20-10

01020304050

P ro d u c tio n T ra n sp o rta tio n U se C H (3 ye a rs) R e c yc lin g C H A v o id e d b u rd e n

Eco-

Indi

cato

r Po

ints

Production

Transport Use

Industrial Avoided(3 years)

recycling

burden

China Switzerland


A


»

How

to Integrate

Effects

of ICT Application?

Terminology from research on impactsof ICT on traffic:

Optimization effect:ICT optimizes traffic processes.

Substitution effect:ICT-based processes replace traffic(e.g. virtual meetings).

Induction effect:ICT creates traffic demand.

Generalize this terminology to otherapplication fields of ICT


A


»

Linked

Life Cycle Approach

Optimization

1

Substitution (demand

▼)Induction

(demand

▲)Optimization

2Optimization

3

Optimization

4

Second-order Effects of ICT

(Effects of ICT Application)

First-order Effects of ICT (ICT Hardware Life Cycle)


Overview

1.


1.


2.


3.

Conclusion


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework

ICT as part of the solution

Technology

Application

Societal change

Optimization effects

Substitution effects

Making more from less

Deep structural change toward a

dematerialized economy

3rdorder

effects

[systemic]

2ndorder

effects

[indirect]

1storder

effects

[direct]

enables

enables

Production

Use

End-of-life treatment

Life cycle of ICT hardware

ICT as part of the problem

Induction effects

Rebound effects

New critical infrastructure


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework


Technology

Application

Societal change






3rdorder

effects

[systemic]

2ndorder

effects

[indirect]

1storder

effects

[direct]

enables

enables

Production

Use




Induction effects

Rebound effects



Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Structural

Change

yesterday (before the industrial

revolution)

today

Resource

flow per capita

Labour demandper capita


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Structural

Change

Source: Marina Fischer-Kowalski, R‘09 Congress and World Resources Forum Davos 2009, www.worldresourcesforum.org

Metabolic

rates

of agrarian

vs. industrial

societies


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Structural

Change

Labourper capita

Information flow per capita

Resource

flowper capita

tomorrow

yesterday

today ?

SustainableInformation

Society

UnsustainableInformation

Society


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Structural

Change »

Statistics

Global trend in the use ofMetal oresFossile energy carriersBiomassNon-metallic minerals

Source: OECD, Measuring Material Flows and Resource Productivity. Synthesis Report, 2008, p. 37


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Structural

Change »

Statistics

Global materials

and energy

use

per capita


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Rebound Effects


Technology

Application

Societal change






3rdorder

effects

[systemic]

2ndorder

effects

[indirect]

1storder

effects

[direct]

enables

enables

Production

Use




Induction effects

Rebound effects



Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Rebound Effects

Resource

efficiency

does

not

always

lead

to less

resource

use(also known

as the

Jeavons

paradox)

activity 12

3

45 6

7

… n

cost of

activity [€]

resource intensityof activity [t/€]

incometotal resource use for the set of

activities 1…n [t]


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Rebound Effects

Resource

efficiency

does

not

always

lead

to less

resource

use(also known

as the

Jevons

paradox)

activity 1 23

45 6

7

… n

cost of

activity [€]




case 1: less resource intensive and not cheaper

no rebound effect


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Rebound Effects

Resource

efficiency

does

not

always

lead

to less

resource

use(also known

as the

Jevons

paradox)

activity 12

3

45 6

7

… n

cost of

activity [€]




case 2: price of activity decreases proportionalto resource demand (constant resource intensity)

direct rebound effect: saved money spent for more of activity 2OR

indirect rebound effect: saved money spent for any other activity


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Rebound Effects

Resource

efficiency

does

not

always

lead

to less

resource

use(also known

as the

Jevons

paradox)

activity 12

3

4 45 6

7

… n

cost of

activity [€]




if more money is spent for an activity with a relatively low resourceintensity, total resource use will decrase.


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework »

Rebound Effects

This works at any level (household or whole economy, in the lattercase replace income by GDP)The time needed to consume an activity should be integrated in itscost (opportunity cost of time).

Result:The safest way to reduce total resource use is not to increase resource efficiency, but to bring people to spend more time or money on relatively resource efficient activities, e.g. by making these more attractive, more useful (but not cheaper).

This is the most viable way to create sustainable ICT applications.

Example:

Car sharing companies boomed after Web-based booking was introduced – this just made car-sharing more attractive.

In addition to Material Flow Analysis (MFA), we need Payment Flow Analysis (PFA) to identify sustainable applications of ICT.


Towards

a Conceptual

Framework


Technology

Application

Societal change






3rdorder

effects

[systemic]

2ndorder

effects

[indirect]

1storder

effects

[direct]

enables

enables

Production

Use




Induction effects

Rebound effects



Conclusions

We need more than a low-carbon economy: a deep structuralchange towards a dematerialized information society

We need ICT as an enabling technology for this transition.

The transition will not happen by itself – we need policies thatmaximize the positive and minimize the negative effects of ICT, accounting for all types of ICT effects (including rebound effects.).

Techno-optimism

Techno-pessimismTechno-realism

Thank

you

for

your

[email protected]/TSL

ISBN: 978-3-8370-1970-4http://www.amazon.de/dp/3837019705

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.empa.ch/TSL

Documents

Prof. Dr. Lorenz M. Hilty Technology and Society Lab Empa ...€¦ · Lorenz M. Hilty, Informatik 2009, Lübeck, September 28, 2009, [email protected] 3 Overview 1. Some Facts