Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON

Director

African CDM Training workshop and preparatory meeting for UNFCCC COP 9

20-21 October, 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Energy & Development Research CentreUniversity of Cape Town

Beyond Kyoto: Concerns for Africa

Global Trends in Climate Change DebateGlobal Trends in Climate Change Debate

Different developmental status –strongly linked to Different developmental status –strongly linked to cumulative/future GHG emissions, but CO2 is still the cumulative/future GHG emissions, but CO2 is still the problem problem

Sharing of climate change burdenSharing of climate change burden Who should pay and amount?Who should pay and amount? Who should receive the payment?Who should receive the payment?

Assessments of costs: Annex 1 and non Annex 1 Assessments of costs: Annex 1 and non Annex 1 differsdiffers MitigationMitigation AdaptationAdaptation In-actionIn-action Multiple dividendsMultiple dividends PenaltiesPenalties

North – South PerspectivesNorth – South Perspectives

North IssuesNorth Issues Emissions reductionEmissions reduction Cost –EffectivenessCost –Effectiveness Cost of MitigationCost of Mitigation R&D & Technology R&D & Technology

DiffusionDiffusion

North StrategiesNorth Strategies Emissions Emissions

Trading/JI/CDM/Trading/JI/CDM/ Carbon TaxCarbon Tax Corporate Sector Corporate Sector

participationparticipation Technology Technology

CooperationCooperation

South IssuesSouth Issues Development is Development is

PriorityPriority Precautionary Precautionary

PrinciplePrinciple Equity concernsEquity concerns

South StrategiesSouth Strategies Development-Development-

Climate change linksClimate change links Capacity buildingCapacity building Technology transferTechnology transfer Vulnerability& Vulnerability&

AdaptationAdaptation

Specific African Issues with link to CCSpecific African Issues with link to CC

Poverty reductionPoverty reduction

Worsening environmental problemsWorsening environmental problems

Lowest user of modern energy servicesLowest user of modern energy services

Extremely weak negotiating capacitiesExtremely weak negotiating capacities

Low GHG emitterLow GHG emitter

Poor and weak integration among institutionsPoor and weak integration among institutions

Links between analytical and decision making Links between analytical and decision making improving but needs attentionimproving but needs attention

Comparing AI and NAI emissionsComparing AI and NAI emissions

Annex I: 57%

ANNUAL EMISSIONS, 1998 CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS 1900- 1999

Data source: CDIAC, analysis by EDRC students

Annex I: 81%

Non-Annex I: 19%Non-Annex I: 43%

Total COTotal CO22 emission from fuel combustion, 2000 emission from fuel combustion, 2000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

USA

Germany

Russia

UK

China

India

Brazil

South Africa

Ghana

DR Congo

African total

MtCO2Source: IEA 2002Source: IEA 2002

Outlook for the future Outlook for the future

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

global

developed countries

developing countries

Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation)

Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000

Outlook for the future Outlook for the future

Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation)

0.0

1000.0

2000.0

3000.0

4000.0

5000.0

6000.0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

global

developed countries

developing countries

Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000

Key Elements in Designing Future CommitmentsKey Elements in Designing Future Commitments

Environmental IntegrityEnvironmental IntegrityOverall emissions cap – share of emissions by Overall emissions cap – share of emissions by

regionsregions

EquityEquityBurden sharing (linked to emissions per region-Burden sharing (linked to emissions per region-

country –capitacountry –capitaDevelopmental statusDevelopmental status

Economic /Technological Feasibility and EfficiencyEconomic /Technological Feasibility and EfficiencyTechnological developmentTechnological development

Linkage to the economic developmentLinkage to the economic developmentEmissions trading for efficiencyEmissions trading for efficiency

A variety of different approachesA variety of different approaches Some approaches are top-down, focus on long-term vision Some approaches are top-down, focus on long-term vision

and global by designand global by design Per capitaPer capita Brazilian proposalBrazilian proposal Full extension of KyotoFull extension of Kyoto

Others are bottom-up, focus on short-term stepsOthers are bottom-up, focus on short-term steps Emission intensity (starts from GDP) – could be Emission intensity (starts from GDP) – could be

global?global? Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive

sectorssectors used for EU and research on global extensionused for EU and research on global extension

Multi-stage approachesMulti-stage approaches Sectoral CDM / SD-PAMsSectoral CDM / SD-PAMs

The challenge: cThe challenge: can we find ‘a logical, top-down and long-an we find ‘a logical, top-down and long-term resolution that is expected to be practised in a bottom term resolution that is expected to be practised in a bottom up regime up regime

Per capita allocationsPer capita allocations Instead of grandfathering emissions and sharing Instead of grandfathering emissions and sharing

burden, start from burden, start from entitlemententitlement of each person of each person

Equal right of each person to use the Equal right of each person to use the atmosphere (global commons)atmosphere (global commons) Contraction & Convergence one example Contraction & Convergence one example

Contract to limit global Contract to limit global GHG emissionsGHG emissions

Converge on equal Converge on equal per capita emissionsper capita emissions

Linked to IET could giveLinked to IET could givemany DCs large allowancesmany DCs large allowances

National circumstances National circumstances resource endowmentresource endowment 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Em

issi

on

s p

er c

apit

a (t

CO

2eq

./p

erso

n) Annex I

Global total

Non-Annex I

Brazilian proposalBrazilian proposal

NEED MORE FROM THE OFFICAL PROPOSAL

Share emission reductions based on relative responsibility for global temperature increase (ΔT) Complex calculations back to concentrations and

emissions

Originally applied only to Annex I But since considered extension

Only approach officially proposed to UNFCCC Parties• Only energy CO2, no deforestation, other gases?

Emissions intensityEmissions intensity

Major part of GHG emissions is closely related to GDPMajor part of GHG emissions is closely related to GDP

Fixed emission targets generate risk:Fixed emission targets generate risk:

Hot air, in the case of lower-than-expected economic growth, Hot air, in the case of lower-than-expected economic growth, harms environmental effectivenessharms environmental effectiveness

Severe economic constraints, in the case of higher-than-Severe economic constraints, in the case of higher-than-expected economic growth, could result in non-complianceexpected economic growth, could result in non-compliance

Emissions intensity target: Reduction of ratio of GHG per unit GDP Emissions intensity target: Reduction of ratio of GHG per unit GDP (CO(CO22-eq / $)-eq / $)

Not the same emissions intensity for all DCsNot the same emissions intensity for all DCs But perhaps a uniform percentage decrease from each But perhaps a uniform percentage decrease from each

country’s own emissions intensity ?country’s own emissions intensity ?

Not inherently ‘softer’ or ‘harder’ than a top-down allocationNot inherently ‘softer’ or ‘harder’ than a top-down allocation Depends on stringency of bothDepends on stringency of both

Extending Kyoto (fixed targets)Extending Kyoto (fixed targets)

Form of target in Kyoto: average 5% reduction below Form of target in Kyoto: average 5% reduction below 1990 levels1990 levels Grandfathers emissions by countryGrandfathers emissions by country Sets absolute number of tons of GHG emissionsSets absolute number of tons of GHG emissions

Possibility to join Annex I by Possibility to join Annex I by 1.1. Notification by the Party (voluntary commitment)Notification by the Party (voluntary commitment)2.2. Decision by the COP to amend Annex IDecision by the COP to amend Annex I

Advantage: known QUELRO’s and framework of KPAdvantage: known QUELRO’s and framework of KP

Building on existing instrumentsBuilding on existing instruments Flexible mechanismsFlexible mechanisms Reporting and monitoring systemReporting and monitoring system

But is it conceivable to extend this to 150+ countries?But is it conceivable to extend this to 150+ countries?

SD-PAMsSD-PAMs Sustainable development policies and measuresSustainable development policies and measures

Commitment to implement a set of PAMs motivated primarily by Commitment to implement a set of PAMs motivated primarily by SD, but that also achieve some ERsSD, but that also achieve some ERs Outline development objectives and identify more Outline development objectives and identify more

sustainable path sustainable path Quantify both SD benefits and changes in GHG emissionsQuantify both SD benefits and changes in GHG emissions Report under National Communications or FCCC registryReport under National Communications or FCCC registry

Key issuesKey issues Funding: Build on existing commitments in Convention Funding: Build on existing commitments in Convention

Article 4.1b and Protocol Article 10Article 4.1b and Protocol Article 10 Establishing national baseline emissionsEstablishing national baseline emissions Agreeing on what qualifies as SD-PAM Agreeing on what qualifies as SD-PAM

Under FCCC, no new agreement neededUnder FCCC, no new agreement needed

Can happen in parallel and may be a useful transition processCan happen in parallel and may be a useful transition process

Possible corridors to stabilizationPossible corridors to stabilization

Source of stabilization paths: IPCC WGIII chapter 2, post SRES scenarios, CO2 only

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Glo

bal

an

thro

po

gen

ic C

O2 e

mis

sio

ns

(GtC

)

450

550

Multi-stage approachesMulti-stage approaches

Current strong division AI / NAI:Current strong division AI / NAI: Incentive to join Annex I – emissions tradingIncentive to join Annex I – emissions trading Disincentive: G77 solidarityDisincentive: G77 solidarity

C&C requires all DCs to join at onceC&C requires all DCs to join at once 49 LDCs 49 LDCs together addtogether add 0.5 % of annual global CO 0.5 % of annual global CO22

Multiple stagesMultiple stages Annex I countries continue with emission reduction Annex I countries continue with emission reduction

commitmentscommitments Non-annex I countries move through steps, e.g.Non-annex I countries move through steps, e.g.

No commitmentNo commitment Reduce emission intensityReduce emission intensity Stabilise emissionsStabilise emissions Share in emission reductions Share in emission reductions (den Elzen 2002)(den Elzen 2002)

TriggersTriggers Particular yearsParticular years ThresholdsThresholds

E.g. GDP / cap E.g. GDP / cap E.g. Emissions per capita E.g. Emissions per capita

Source: Hoehne presentation, EcofysSource: Hoehne presentation, Ecofys

Equity as a PrincipleEquity as a Principle

Fair allocation of costs of preventing further climate change Fair allocation of costs of preventing further climate change ((mitigation costsmitigation costs))

Fair allocation of costs of adapting to climate change (Fair allocation of costs of adapting to climate change (adaptation adaptation costscosts))

Fair Fair processprocess of agreeing internationally how to determine costs of agreeing internationally how to determine costs

Fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions in the Fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions in the long-termlong-term and and in a in a transitiontransition phase phase

Review of equity in IPCC TAR WG3Review of equity in IPCC TAR WG3 Context of ‘development, equity and sustainability’ Context of ‘development, equity and sustainability’ Multi-faceted: “allocation, outcome, process, rights, liability, Multi-faceted: “allocation, outcome, process, rights, liability,

poverty, and opportunity, reflecting the diverse expectations of poverty, and opportunity, reflecting the diverse expectations of fairness used to judge policy processes and the corresponding fairness used to judge policy processes and the corresponding outcomes” outcomes”

‘‘Quality of being fair or impartial’; ‘something that is fair or just”Quality of being fair or impartial’; ‘something that is fair or just”

World Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe)

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2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1971 1997 2010 2020

Mtoe

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other Renew ables

Source: WEO, 2001

0

100

200

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400

500

600

700

800

900

1000C

O2

Em

issi

on

s kg

CO

2/M

Wh

Co

al-f

ired

ste

amtu

rbin

e

Cle

an C

oal

fir

ed

Co

alg

asif

icat

ion

/ste

amtu

rbin

e

Co

al C

HP

Gas

Co

mb

ined

Cyc

le

Gas

CH

P

Comparison of CO2 Emissions in Fossil Fuel Plants

Series1

Efficiency and CO2 Emissions and Power Plants

0

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1400

30 40 50 60 70

Efficiency(%)

CO

2 em

issi

on

s, k

g/M

Wh

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Steam Turbine

PFBCIGCC

Fuel Cell

COAL

OIL

Diesel enfine

Diesel engine&Steam Turbine Fuel Cell

Gas Turbine

Gas Turbine & Steam Turbine

Gas engine

Fuel Cell

NATURAL GAS

PFBC -Pulverised Fuel CombustionIGCC - Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle

New Options

• Natural gas fired combined cycles are preffered because of low costs, high efficiency, low environmental impacts

• Co-generation is cost-effective especially when used in the form of gas turbines and combined cycles

• Fuel cells for small power generation• Coal gasification can lead to power production

integrated gasifier combined cycles (IGCC)• Use of Renewable Energy Technologies• Promotion of energy efficiency

Elements of Technology Protocol

• Technology transfer incentives – High quality energy technologies

• Agreement on reducing energy intensity – energy use per product – A converging range– Time allowance– Sector dependent

• Agreement on overall efficiency per sector (range)• Agreement on dematerialization trends (range)• Agreement on fuel efficiency

Critical Issues for Energy Development in AfricaCritical Issues for Energy Development in Africa

Linking global and local environmental issuesLinking global and local environmental issues SSearch for win-win solutionsearch for win-win solutions Search for trade-offsSearch for trade-offs

Substantial increase in energy accessSubstantial increase in energy access Abundant reservesAbundant reserves Search for technologiesSearch for technologies Search for investmentsSearch for investments

Energy securityEnergy security Control outside interestsControl outside interests Linking to environmental security Linking to environmental security

Energy & Development Research Centre

University of Cape Town,