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Prof Santosh Kumar Director , SAARC Disaster Management Center
Afghanistan India Bhutan Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Maldives Sri Lanka
KATHMANDU MAPPED AS ZONE V HIGH SEISMIC RISK
CAN WE ENSURE THEIR SAFETY ???????
The profile
• It is estimated that the total urban population of South Asia will increase from 449 million in 2007 to 913 million in 2025 and 1.32 billion in 2050.
• In absolute numbers such growth will be most pronounced in large countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
• The relative rate of urban growth is expected to be higher in the smaller countries like Bhutan, Afghanistan and Maldives.
Profile contd…
• 65 cities in South Asia today have a population of more than 1 million each,
• of which 5 are 10 million plus cities, with another 4 cities closely following.
• Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Karachi are expected to reach the status of ‘20 million cities’ in a few years.
• No other region of the world has concentration of so many mega cities as in South Asia today.
Profile ….
• The scale of urbanization has far outpaced the provision of infrastructure facilities.
• Almost all the cities and towns of South Asia are facing serious shortages of power,water, sewerage, developed land, housing, transportation, communication and other facilities.
The Reality Check
Vulnerability
• The increases in land prices have virtually left the urban poor with no alternative except to seek informal solution to their housing problems, leading to the settlement in high risk areas- “SLUMS”
• About one third of the urban dwellers are living below poverty line under sub human conditions - without access to basic services like drinking water, sanitation, medical care and public hygiene.
•
vulnerability
• Compounding the problems of urban growth are the natural hazards of floods, earthquakes, cyclones, landslides etc, and layers of physical, social and economic vulnerabilities that are exposing the people of many South Asian cities to increasing risks of disasters.
• Climate change and its impact on rainfall, water and atmosphere is further dragging the cities into new vortex of risk
Economy
Figure: share of different sector on South Asian economy and their growth rate Source: ADB 2010
Potential Risks From Different Hazards
Source: IPCC AR4 and AR5 & South Asia Disaster Reports
Impacts Due to Natural Disaster in SAARC Countries (1990-2008)
Source: South Asia Disaster Reports, SDMC
Incidence of natural disaster
Disaster Preparedness level
Sharing risk with partners
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
HFA1
HFA2
HFA3
HFA4
HFA5
152
200
264 235
123
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
HFA coverage of regional initiatives in South Asia
HFA 1
HFA 2
HFA 3
HFA 4
HFA 5
HFA Priority for action 1: Ensure that
disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation
Priority for action 2: Identify,
assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning
Priority for action 3: Use
knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels
Priority for action 4: Reduce the
underlying risk factors
Priority for action 5: Strengthen
disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels
Actions for the future
• Risks that must be prevented at any cost
• ™ Risks that may be mitigated to reduce the impact of disasters
• ™ Risks that may be transferred to insurance or other mechanisms
• ™ Risks that can neither be prevented nor mitigated nor transferred and have to be accepted
Actions needed
• Development of a sound city-level information and data system on hazards and vulnerabilities
• quantification of total Risks, preparation of cost-benefit analysis of Prevention and Mitigation,
• And helps in determining the Accepted Risks of cities, which may form the basis of Disaster Preparedness Plansfor cities
Thank You
Afghanistan India Bhutan Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Maldives Sri Lanka