Profile of heating and cooling demand ... - isi.fraunhofer.de · Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016). We also refer to this publication for a more detailed We also refer to this publication

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This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989.

Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015

D 3.1

2017

2 @HeatRoadmapEU www.heatroadmap.e

Authors: Tobias Fleiter, Rainer Elsland, Matthias Rehfeldt, Jan Steinbach (Fraunhofer ISI) Ulrich Reiter, Giacomo Catenazzi, Martin Jakob (TEP Energy GmbH) Cathelijne Rutten, Robert Harmsen (University Utrecht) Florian Dittmann, Philippe Rivière, Pascal Stabat (ARMINES) Contact: Tobias Fleiter Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research Breslauer Str. 48 76139 Karlsruhe Germany E-mail: [email protected] Heat Roadmap Europe website: www.heatroadmap.eu

Deliverable No. D 3.1: Report © 2017

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989. The sole responsibility for the content of this document lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the funding authorities. The funding authorities are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

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Table of Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................... 3

2. Method, definitions and data sources ........................................................ 6

2.1. Method ........................................................................................... 6

2.2. Definitions ...................................................................................... 9

2.3. Data sources ................................................................................. 13

3. Summary of main results ...................................................................... 14

4. References ......................................................................................... 16

2

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1. Introduction In Europe, there is a clear long-term objective to decarbonise the energy system, but it is currently unclear how this will be achieved in the heating and cooling sector. The Heat Roadmap Europe (HRE) project will enable new policies and prepare the ground for new investments by creating more certainty regarding the changes that are required. Heat Roadmap Europe is co-funded by the European Union, brings together 24 academic, industrial, governmental and civil society partners, and runs from 2016-2019.

The overall objective of the HRE project is to provide new capacity and skills for lead users in the heating and cooling sector including policymakers, industry, and researchers at local, national, and EU levels by developing the data, tools, and methodologies necessary to quantify the impact of implementing more energy efficiency measures on both the demand and supply sides of the sector.

This WP3 report presents a breakdown of both the demand and supply of heating and cooling energy for the year 2015 and thus provides the starting point for the scenario analyses up until 2050.

Conventional energy balances (both national and Eurostat) generally provide the final energy demand split by sector (residential, industry, tertiary and transport), energy carrier and also by sub-sector for industry. They do not usually provide information on end-uses such as heating, cooling, mechanical energy or useful energy (i.e. the heat that is used by the consumer, e.g. for heating a room). A recent review found that several EU countries provide end-use balances for the residential sector and some for the tertiary sector, but only three countries do so for the industry sector (United Kingdom, Germany and Austria) (Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016). However, the method and definitions used in the various countries deviate from one another and it is not possible to derive a consistent EU-wide end-use energy balance simply by combining national data (Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016).

As a consequence, the energy demand for heating and cooling (H/C) cannot be derived from the currently existing official energy balances in a consistent way for all EU countries. Neither is it possible to calculate the share of renewable energies in H/C without simplification as done, for example, in the SHARES project1, which excludes all electricity consumption from H/C energy use. This approach does not provide accurate results in many countries.

Therefore, this deliverable aims to profile the energy demand for H/C by calculating energy balances for all 28 EU countries that include H/C. However, the focus of the analysis and input-data quality checks is on the 14 EU countries with the highest H/C demand as in the other HRE deliverables. The remaining 14 countries were added so

1 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/de/web/energy/data/shares

4


that figures could be presented for the entire EU28. The balances are based on the same method applied across countries, which should make them comparable and consistent. The approach used combines empirical data, e.g. market shares, industrial production or technology stock with bottom-up model simulation to derive energy demands for 2015. The bottom-up model FORECAST2 is used for this purpose.

2015 was chosen as the start year for scenario development in the HRE4 project so the H/C profile is also developed for 2015. This poses a few challenges related to data availability. At the time of calculating the 2015 profiles, there was no final energy demand balance available from Eurostat, which is ideally used for calibration. Other input data are also only available for earlier years (e.g. industrial production statistics). As a consequence, we calculate the 2015 heating and cooling profiles based on model runs that begin in 2012.

SFH = Single-family house; MFH = Multi-family house, CHP = combined heat and power, RES= Renewable energy sources

Figure 1: Overview of disaggregation of H/C profiles by country (based on Fraunhofer ISI et al. 2016)

The H/C profiles comprise all the elements also included in the Eurostat final energy balances (e.g. energy carriers and sectors). They are then broken down by sub-sector, end-use technology and even by temperature level for the industry sector to provide a complete picture of energy demand for H/C in the various market segments.

Figure 1 provides an overview of the different dimensions considered. Two examples are given here of how the resulting H/C profiles can be used: to obtain the final energy demand for space heating in multi-family houses in Belgium that is provided by air-

2 http://www.forecast-model.eu/


source heat pumps; and to show the coal used to provide process heat in the iron and steel sector in Italy in the temperature range above 500°C.

The profiles include final energy demand as well as useful energy demand. We define useful energy demand as the heat provided by the combined system of a boiler plus storage.

In the following, the definitions and data sources are described, before an overview of the main results is provided. The annex gives a more detailed analysis of the H/C profiles in each sector (industry, residential and tertiary).

6


2. Method, definitions and data sources 2.1. Method The approach used combines empirical data with bottom-up modelling of energy demand. The empirical data are taken from official national statistics, surveys as well as various statistics provided e.g. by industrial organisations. An overview of the main data sources is provided in section 0. For the bottom-up modelling, we use the energy demand model FORECAST. A separate bottom-up model based on sales data is used only for space cooling as described below.

2.1.1. Deriving end-use energy balances using the bottom-up model FORECAST

The FORECAST model comprises three individual modules; each represents one sector in line with the Eurostat (or national) energy balances: industry, services/tertiary and residential. While all the sector modules follow a similar bottom-up methodology, they also consider the particularities of each sector like technology structure, actor heterogeneity and data availability. Energy demand is calculated based on technology structure and technology characteristics as well as economic drivers and prices.

In the short term, the most important determinants of energy demand are ambient temperature (affecting mainly space heating) and economic activity (affecting mainly industrial process H/C demand). While the FORECAST model includes a detailed simulation of technological change based on vintage stock models, these effects are more important in the longer term (e.g. towards 2030 and beyond) and less so in the short term.

FORECAST takes ambient temperature into account using the annual average heating/cooling degree days (HDDs/CDDs) as shown in Table 4. Industrial activity is reflected using the annual value added by sub-sector and the physical production per year for major energy-intensive bulk products (e.g. tonnes of oxygen steel produced). 2015 production data were not available for most of the around 60 products considered and forecasts were made based on past time series. Activities in the services sector are driven by the number of employees and the sub-sector-specific energy demand per employee and floor area.

As an example, Figure 2 shows how end-use energy balances are derived in FORECAST-Industry based on bottom-up data by process and end-use. This approach combines activity data such as production and employment with specific energy demand by process/end-use.


Source: Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016)

Figure 2: Schematic representation of an end-use balance model calculation for the industry sector (FORECAST-Industry)

Note that the calculation of H/C profiles is largely based on earlier work summarized in Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016). We also refer to this publication for a more detailed description of the methodology by sector. However, we extend the H/C profile here by including individual technologies such as heat pumps or industrial CHP units and information on the technology stock such as the number of units installed in certain market segments.

2.1.2. Space cooling Space cooling demand and supply are calculated using a bottom-up model developed by Armines. The demand is then split into sub-sectors according to the cooling shares calculated by the FORECAST model (Aebischer et al. 2007). This approach is used to update the cooling demand figures and is described in the following (for a more detailed description of the approach and the input data, we refer to the separate HRE deliverable on space cooling3).

Total space cooling demand and electricity consumption under standard conditions are estimated using equipment sales. These include all vapour compression technologies

3 D3.2: Cooling technology datasheets and accompanying report "Dittmann, Perret-Gentil, Riviere, Paardekooper, Connolly (2017): "Space Cooling in Europe: Technology Data and Demand Modelling, Mines ParisTech – ARMINES, Paris"

Processes (H/C)

Production [t/a]- by process

Employment [Pers./a]- by sub-sector and building type

FEDc,p, Floor areaC,S,BSEC m²/Person

Space heating

FEDc,p,H/CShare H/C

FEDc,p,H/C,TShare Temp

FEDc,p,H/C,TShare EC(Eurostat)

FED: Final energy demandSEC: Specific energy demandC: CountryP: ProcessH/C: Heating/CoolingT: TemperatureS: Sub-SectorB: Building typeE: End-useA: Air conditioning / cooling

FEDC,S,B,HSEC [kWh/m²]

Share Temp (gap)

FEDC,S,B,A

SEC[kWh/m²]

Share cooled

FEDC,S,B,H

Bottom-up FEDC,EC,E,T,S

FED (Gap)C,S,EC

FED C,S,EC,T,E

FED (Gap) C,S,EC,T,H

FED (Eurostat)C,S,EC

Bottom-up / top-down matching

Space cooling


available on the market, such as air-to-air split and VRF systems, ducted and rooftop installations, air-cooled and water-cooled chillers as well as portable and window units. The following steps apply to each sector in each country and each technology. Figure 3 shows the flow of information in detail. The total nominal cooling power installed is estimated by calculating the 2015 stock from the number of units sold over the preceding 24 years, the average power of the units sold and the average lifetime of the technology. Dividing the installed power by the average power installed per unit of indoor floor area (equipment sizing) yields the total cooled floor area. To estimate the total space cooling supplied in the base year, the cooled floor area is multiplied by the cooling energy demand per floor area (specific demand). The average SEER (seasonal energy efficiency ratio) of units installed can be derived by combining the average SEER of units sold with the stock model. Total electricity consumption under standard conditions was then obtained by dividing the total cooling supply by the average SEER. Actual electricity consumption is in fact higher due to suboptimal installation (over-sizing), maintenance and usage practices. However, there is no statistically significant information available to enable accurate corrections to the standard efficiencies.

Total cooling power installed 2011-2015

Units sold in sector by ranges of cooling power

Total cooling power sold

Units sold/y 1992-2015 (24y) by ranges of cooling power

Repartition of units sold over sectors

Distr ibution of units sold within cooling power ranges

Lifetime of technology

Total area of building

typesSizing (cooling power/area)

for building types

Building type distribution of

sector

Manufacturers Installation manuals

TECHNOLOGY STOCK

BUILDING STOCKINSTALLATION

Total cooling supply

Total area cooled

Total electricity consumption

SEER of units sold of Technology (each year)

EU Regulation

Eco-design studies

Certification data

EFFICIENCY

Comparison with other models/data



SEER of units installed

Total (seasonal) electricpower of units sold

Total (seasonal) electricpower of units installed

Specific demand (cooling

energy/area)

Building type demand models

Hour ly weather data (one year)

BUILDING DEMAND

DC SPECIFIC DEMAND MODELby building type

Figure 3: Overview of method for space cooling demand estimation


2.2. Definitions The following summarises the main definitions used for the H/C profiles.

Final energy, delivered heat and useful energy

We define final energy in line with Eurostat as the energy input to the heating unit at the final consumer. Like Eurostat, we also exclude ambient heat used in heat pumps. Only the electricity or gas consumption of heat pumps is included in the final energy.

The definition of useful energy is less standardized. Different studies use different definitions. We define useful energy as the energy distributed to the end-user, e.g. the heat to a room provided by a radiator. Thus, useful energy takes into account potential losses from local distribution, e.g. in the pipes in a building. Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016) use a similar definition for useful energy. However, our results are not based on useful energy but on delivered energy instead. This is defined at the conversion step from final energy to useful energy (see Figure 4). We define delivered energy as the heat or cold produced by the combined system of an onsite boiler and storage before it enters the distribution system. Possible losses in the distribution system (e.g. within a building) are not taken into account for delivered energy.

Figure 4: Definition of final, delivered and useful energy

Technologies and energy carriers

A major extension of this report compared to Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016) is the inclusion of technology information. In order to keep the amount of data to a manageable level, we use one combined dimension to represent energy carriers and technologies. While

Heating system

Heat storage

Losses

Losses

Local distribution

Losses

Energy input toboiler or plant

= Final energy

Heat or cold produced byboiler + storage

= Delivered energy

Transformation sector & network

Losses

Heat or cold distributed to end‐use

= Useful energy

10


some energy carriers are well defined by particular technologies (e.g. gas is mainly used in gas boilers), others are not (e.g. electricity). In the latter case, we split electricity use into individual technologies including air-source and ground-source heat pumps, direct electric resistance heating and compression cooling. Table 1 provides a complete overview.

Table 1: Definition of technologies/ energy carriers

Technology/ Energy carrier (final

energy)

Definition / comment

Total Sum of all energy technologies/energy carriers

Gas includes all gas technologies not listed separately below,

still mainly individual boilers

Oil see gas

Coal see gas

Electric heating Direct electric heating (resistance heating also for night storage)

District heating DH substations

Biomass Includes all biomass/biofuels/biogas technologies not listed separately below

Solar thermal Only solar thermal.

Heat pumps total (electric) Include only electricity in final energy demand; ambient heat not included; gas heat pumps not included

Heat pumps air‐source (electric) See heat pumps total; only heat pumps using air as heat source

Heat pumps ground‐source (electric) See heat pumps total; only heat pumps using the ground as heat source

Others (RES) Mainly RES waste and deep geothermal

Others (fossil) Mainly fuels used in industry including waste, stack gas, etc.

Compression cooling (electric) Aggregates all cooling technologies

Sectors and sub-sectors

In terms of sectors, we follow the Eurostat energy balance definition by including industry, tertiary/services and residential. For industry sub-sectors, we aggregate the Eurostat energy balances slightly in order to have fewer very small sub-sectors. This aggregation leads to a total of 8 sub-sectors (see Table 2). For the tertiary sector, we also include 8 sub-sectors (see Table 3). Note that Eurostat does not provide information for sub-sectors in the tertiary sector.


Table 2: Definition of sub-sectors in industry

Sub‐sectors NACE 2.0 Divisions

Iron and steel 24.1, 24.2, 24.3, 24.51, 24.52

Non‐ferrous metals 24,4, 24.53, 24.54

Paper, pulp and printing 17, 18

Non‐metallic mineral products 23

Chemical industry 20

Food, drink and tobacco 10, 11, 12

Engineering and other metal 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30

Other non‐classified 13, 14, 15, 16, etc

Table 3: Definition of sub-sectors in services

Economic subsector NACE (2.0) Description

Trade G Wholesale and retail trade

Hotel and restaurant I Hotels and restaurants, camping sites, mountain refuges, bars,

canteens, catering

Traffic and data transmission

H, J Transport (railway, road, water, air), storage and communication, cargo handling, post, telecommunications,

Finance K Finance and insurance

Health Q Health and social work, hospital activities, social work activities

with accommodation

Education P Primary and secondary education, higher education

Public administration O Public administration and defence, compulsory and social security

Other services L,M,N,R,S Other services (waste, sport, social services) + real estate and other services

Heating degree days (HDDs)

Heating degree days are used to correct space heating demand to the respective climate conditions of 2015. HDDs are taken from Eurostat as shown in Table 4. For most countries, 2015 has lower HDD values than the average annual values from 2010 to 2015. This means the demand for space heating was lower because 2015 was a relatively warm year.

12


Table 4: Heating degree days (HDDs) used (source: Eurostat)

Country 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average 2010‐2015

EU‐27/28 3,473 3,119 3,420 3,218 2,809 2,904 3,157

Austria 3,704 3,404 3,554 3,640 3,125 3,318 3,457

Belgium 3,174 2,399 2,772 3,024 2,315 2,633 2,719

Bulgaria 2,596 2,796 2,611 2,414 2,371 2,374 2,527

Croatia n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,301 1,895 2,256 n.a.

Cyprus 442 832 826 701 556 750 685

Czech Republic 3,832 3,234 3,399 3,512 2,918 3,090 3,331

Denmark 3,971 3,150 3,423 3,402 2,855 3,114 3,319

Estonia 4,818 4,083 4,579 4,152 4,142 3,791 4,261

Finland 6,058 5,251 5,857 5,278 5,242 5,031 5,453

France 2,707 2,053 2,441 2,636 2,085 2,257 2,363

Germany 3,611 2,868 3,126 3,288 2,661 2,908 3,077

Greece 1,343 1,790 1,655 1,451 1,393 1,578 1,535

Hungary 2,936 2,815 2,771 2,687 2,286 2,597 2,682

Ireland 3,125 2,754 2,858 2,835 2,631 2,913 2,853

Italy 1,992 1,861 1,968 1,933 1,632 1,810 1,866

Latvia 4,622 3,940 4,320 4,037 3,948 3,658 4,088

Lithuania 4,409 3,768 4,082 3,872 3,727 3,524 3,897

Luxembourg 3,358 2,624 2,917 3,229 2,500 2,853 2,913

Malta 385 549 662 460 374 544 496

Netherlands 3,300 2,512 2,814 3,010 2,285 2,625 2,758

Poland 3,881 3,317 3,552 3,505 3,095 3,113 3,410

Portugal 1,290 1,087 1,348 1,340 1,147 1,080 1,215

Romania 2,988 3,173 3,090 2,863 2,729 2,786 2,938

Slovak Republic 3,467 3,248 3,299 3,241 2,718 3,057 3,172

Slovenia 3,041 2,818 2,832 2,867 2,342 2,700 2,767

Spain 1,913 1,562 1,871 1,910 1,570 1,612 1,740

Sweden 5,874 4,927 5,504 5,186 4,887 4,910 5,214

United Kingdom 3,403 2,846 3,183 3,179 2,740 3,017 3,061


2.3. Data sources The following table provides an overview of the main data sources used.

Table 5: Selected data sources used

Sector Sub‐area Data sources used

Residential sector

Dwelling stock, living

area

Enerdata (2016b), Enerdata (2016c), Eurostat (2016)

Technology and

energy‐related data

Enerdata (2016b), Enerdata, TU Vienna, Fraunhofer ISI et al.

(2016), Fraunhofer ISI, Fraunhofer ISE, IREES et al. (2016)

Tertiary sector

Building and

technology data

EUROSTAT (number of employees), EU Building observatory, BPIE,

Odyssee database (general), FhG‐ISE survey data (district heat),

various EuP preparatory studies, IREES and ARMINES (cooling

technologies)

Industry sector

Industrial production Prodcom, UNFCCC, Eurostat, industrial organisations (VDP,

Cembureau, World Steel Association, Glassglobal) US geological

survey

Technology data PLATTs database, Eurostat CHP statistics, numerous individual

studies for individual sub‐sectors, e.g. Fleiter et al. (2011)

Cross‐cutting

Renewable energy

technologies

Eurostat energy balances, EHPA market reports, Observ´ER market

reports

Final and useful

energy demand

Eurostat and national end‐use energy balances such as DUKES for

the UK.

Space cooling

Space cooling sales: BSRIA WMI Market studies, Eurovent Market

intelligence

Specific demand (Service sector): District cooling deliveries

(Werner, 2015)

Specific demand (residential sector): Dynamic building demand

modelling (Rivière et al., 2008)

Standard SEER values of sales: EU studies (Adnot et al., 1999),

(Adnot et al., 2003), (Rivière et al., 2009), (Rivière et al., 2012),

current Eurovent Certification product directory, public

information and regulatory information from air conditioner labels

and MEPS (EC, 2002), (EU, 2011), (EU, 2012) and (EU, 2016);

14


3. Summary of main results The resulting heating and cooling profiles allow a very detailed insight into the pattern of H/C demand and supply by country, end-use, sector, sub-sector, energy carrier and temperature level.

A few selected main results are presented here. A more detailed analysis of the results is given in the annex to this report and allows deeper insights into the individual sectors.

Other heating = cooking in residential buildings

Figure 5: Heating and cooling demand in 2015 in the EU28 by end-use compared to total final energy (FED) demand

Further key results are:

• With a final energy demand (FED) of 6350 TWh in 2015, H&C is very important and accounts for ~50% of EU28 FED

• Space heating (53% of FED for H/C) is the most important individual end-use followed by process heating (32% of FED for H/C)

• Cooling accounts for ~2% of total FED for H&C and has low shares in most countries, but the potential to grow strongly in the future

• Space heating is important in almost every country, while space cooling is only relevant in southern countries.

Non-H/C50%

Process heating

16%

Space heating27%

Hot water4%

Other heating1%

Process cooling

1%

Space cooling

1%

Heating and cooling

50%


Figure 6: H&C final energy by energy carrier in 2015 (EU28)

The energy carrier mix for H/C shows the following pattern:

• Fossil fuels account for >65% in EU28 FED

• Electricity and district heating account for 21% (mainly based on fossil fuels)

• Renewable energy sources (RES) account for about 13%

• Gas is the most dominant fuel in EU28 (422%) and in most countries

• Of the available RES, only biomass is used substantially (12%); solar thermal, geothermal and heat pumps are still marginal in almost every country

• However, the composition of energy carriers for H&C supply is very diverse across countries.

42%

12%

12%

12%

9%

8%

4%

1%0%

0% Gas

Oil

Biomass

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Others (fossil)

Solar thermal

Heat pumps

Others (RES)

16


Other heating = cooking in residential buildings

Figure 7: H&C FED by sector and end-use (EU28, 2015)

Key results by sector:

• With about 2850 TWh, the residential sector has the highest FED for H/C followed by industry (2390 TWh) and the tertiary sector (1120 TWh)

• Process heat accounts for about 80% of H/C FED in the industry sector

• Industrial process heat >200°C accounts for ~50% of industrial H&C FED, and poses a challenge when switching to RES

• The end-use and energy carrier structure in industry vary strongly by sub-sector

• In residential space heating, SFHs are twice as important as MFHs as an EU28 average

• In the tertiary sector, all sub-sectors are dominated by space heating

• Space cooling is much more important in the tertiary sector than in the residential sector.

4. References

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Industry Residential Tertiary

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]

Space heating

Space cooling

Process heating

Process cooling

Hot water

Other heating


Adnot et al. (1999) Energy efficiency of room air-conditioners. Paris: Ecole des Mines de Paris (coord. J. Adnot) et al, for DGTREN, the Commission of the European Communities, SAVE contract DGXVII4.103/D/97.026, May.

Adnot et al. (2003): Efficiency and Certification of Central Air Conditioners (EECCAC). Paris: Ecole des Mines de Paris (coord. J. Adnot) et al, for DGTREN, the Commission of the European Communities, SAVE contract, April.

Aebischer B., Jakob M., Catenazzi The late G., Henderson (2007). Impact of climate change on thermal comfort, heating and cooling energy demand in Europe. Proceedings eceee Summer Study 2007, Colle sur Loup, France, June (ISBN 978-91-633-0899-4).Enerdata (2016a): Odyssee-Mure database, Grenoble, France.

Enerdata (2016b): Stock of single and multifamily dwellings (permanently occupied), Grenoble, France.

Enerdata (2016c): Living area of dwellings, Grenoble, France.

Enerdata, TU Vienna, Fraunhofer ISI, BPIE, Sofena, Seven 7, National Consumer Research Centre, Öko-Institut, Efficiency Research Group, CENER: ENTRANZE - Policies to ENforce the TRAnsition to Nearly Zero Energy buildings in the EU-27, Grenoble, France.

Eurostat (2016): Number of private households by household composition, Luxembourg.

EU (2011): COMMISSION DELEGATED REGULATION (EU) No 626/2011 of 4 May 2011 supplementing Directive 2010/30/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to energy labelling of air conditioners, OJ L 178, 6.7.2011, p. 1–72.

EU (2012): Commission Regulation (EU) No 206/2012 of 6 March 2012 implementing Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council with regard to ecodesign requirements for air conditioners and comfort fans, OJ L 72, 10.3.2012, p. 7–27.

EU (2016): Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2281 of 30 November 2016 implementing Directive 2009/125/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing a framework for the setting of ecodesign requirements for energy-related products, with regard to ecodesign requirements for air heating products, cooling products, high temperature process chillers and fan coil units, OJ L 346, 20.12.2016, p. 1–50.

Fleiter, Tobias; Schlomann, Barbara; Hirzel, Simon; Arens, Marlene; Hassan, Ali; Idrissova, Farikha et al. (Hg.) (2011): Where are the promising energy-efficient technologies? A comprehensive analysis of the German energy-intensive industries: eceee summer study 2011, June 6-11, Presqu’ile de Giens, France.

18


Fraunhofer ISI; Fraunhofer ISE; IREES; Observ’ER; TU Wien; TEP Energy (2016): Mapping and analyses of the current and future (2020 - 2030) heating/cooling fuel deployment (fossil/renewables). Karlsruhe, Freiburg, Paris, Wien, Zürich.

Rivière et al. (2008): Preparatory Study on the Environmental Performance of Residential Room Conditioning Appliances (Airco and Ventilation), Armines, Paris, France, 2008.

Werner (2015): Sven Werner, European space cooling demands, Energy, Volume 110, 1 September 2016, Pages 148-156, ISSN 0360-5442.


www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Profile of heating and cooling demand in 2015

D3.1 - Detailed results annex



Contents

• Overview• Industry sector• Residential sector• Tertiary sector• Cooling• Conclusions



OVERVIEW



Non-H/C50%

Process heating

16%

Space heating27%

Hot water4%

Other heating1%

Process cooling

1%

Space cooling

1%

Heating and cooling

50%

Total final energy demand (FED) in 2015 (EU28)

High relevance: H&C about 50% of FED!



H&C FED by end-use in 2015 (EU28)

2015:

High relevanceof space andprocess heating;

Lower relevanceof cooling

Process heating

32%

Space heating

53%

Hot water8%

Other heating3%

Process cooling

3%

Space cooling1%



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%Space cooling

Process cooling

Other heating

Process heating

Hot water

Space heating

H&C FED by end-use and country (EU28, 2015)

• Space heating and process heatingimportant in all countries

• Cooling importantin southern countries



Share of space heating in total FED for H&C

Space heating isalso relevant in southern countries!



H&C FED by energy carrier in 2015 (EU28)

2015 shares FED:

• Fossil: 66%

• RES: 13%

• El+DH: 21%42%

12%

12%

12%

9%

8%

4%

1%0%

0% Gas

Oil

Biomass

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Others (fossil)

Solar thermal

Heat pumps

Others (RES)



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ge

rma

nyF

ran

ceIt

aly

Uni

ted

…P

ola

nd

Sp

ain

Net

herl

and

sB

elg

ium

Sw

ede

nF

inla

nd

Au

stri

aR

oma

nia

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Hun

gar

yG

ree

ceS

lova

k…P

ort

uga

lD

enm

ark

Ire

lan

dB

ulg

aria

Cro

atia

Lith

ua

nia

Lat

via

Slo

ven

iaE

sto

nia

Lux

em

bou

rgC

ypru

sM

alta

To

tal

fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]

Others (RES)

Solar thermal

Heat pumps

Biomass

Electricity

District heating

Others (fossil)

Oil

Coal

Gas

Total

H&C FED by energy carrier and country(EU28, 2015)

• Energy carriermix verycountry specific

• Gas importantin mostcountries (lessin SE and FI)

• Solar and heatpumps still marginal almosteverywhere



H&C FED by energy carrier (2015, EU28)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Processheating

Processcooling

Hot water Otherheating

Spaceheating

Spacecooling

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]

Solar thermal

Others (RES)

Others (fossil)

Oil

Heat pumps

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

End‐uses use energycarriers differently:• Gas is important

in both processand spaceheating

• Coal is importantin processheating

• Biomass anddistrict heatingmore in spaceheating



H&C FED by sector and end-use (EU28, 2015)

End‐uses by sector:• Industry: >80%

for process heat• Residential:

>75% for spaceheating

• Tertiary: highestshare of coolingcompared toother sectors(~10%)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]

Space heating

Space cooling

Process heating

Process cooling

Hot water

Other heating



H&C FED by sector and energy carrier(EU28, 2015)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Solar thermal

Others (RES)

Others (fossil)

Oil

Heat pumps(electric)Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Energy carrier mix varies by sector:• Industry:

highest share ofcoal and otherfossil

• Residential: highest share ofbiomass

• Tertiary: highest share ofelectricity andgas



INDUSTRY SECTOR



Industry FED for H&C by end-use(EU28, 2015)

Process heating mostrelevant (andchallenging fordecarbonization)!

9%

21%

9%42%

14%

1%

1% 1%2%

Process heating <100 °C

Process heating 100-200 °C


Process heating >500 °C

Space heating

Space cooling

Process cooling <-30 °C

Process cooling-30-0 °C

Process cooling 0-15 °C



Industry sector by temperature and sub-sector (EU28, 2015)

Very diverse structure in sub‐sectors!

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]


Process cooling -30-0 °C


Space cooling

Space heating







Industry FED H&C by energy carrier(EU28, 2015)

9%

17%

8%

7%39%

8%

11%

1% 0%

Biomass

Coal

District heating

Electricity

Gas

Oil

Others (fossil)

Others (RES)

Solar thermal

Gas most importantenergy carrier, butalso high shares ofcoal.



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Fin

al E

ne

rgy

[TW

h]

Achsentitel

Solar thermal

Others (RES)

Others (fossil)

Oil

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Industry FED H&C by energy carrier andsub-sector (EU28, 2015)

Distribution ofenergy carriers variesby sub‐sector:

‐ high share ofbiomass in pulp & paper

‐ high share of coalin iron & steel

‐ other fossil fuels(e.g. waste) high shares in non‐metallic minerals(mainly cement)



Industry FED by end-use and energy carrier(EU28, 2015)

Patterns:

• Coal for hightemperatures

• Biomass forsteam

• DH for lowtemperatures

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Fin

al e

ne

rgy

[TW

h]

Solar thermal

Others (RES)

Others (fossil)

Oil

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass



Industry: FED for H&C by country and energy carrier (EU28, 2015)

Hugediversityacrosscountries!

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ge

rma

ny

Ital

y

Fra

nce

Uni

ted

Kin

gd

om

Sp

ain

Po

lan

d

Net

herl

and

s

Fin

lan

d

Be

lgiu

m

Sw

ede

n

Au

stri

a

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Rom

an

ia

Slo

vak

Re

pub

lic

Po

rtu

gal

Hun

gar

y

Bu

lga

ria

Gre

ece

Den

ma

rk

Ire

lan

d

Cro

atia

Lith

ua

nia

Slo

ven

ia

Lat

via

Lux

em

bou

rg

Est

on

ia

Cyp

rus

Ma

lta

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]

Solar thermal

Others (RES)

Others (fossil)

Oil

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Total



Share of biomass in industry FED

High share of biomass in Nordic countries



Industry: FED for H&C by country and end-use (EU28, 2015)

Less diversity than for energy carrier distribution: all countries have high shares of process heat > 100°C!

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ge

rma

nyIt

aly

Fra

nce

Uni

ted

Kin

gd

omS

pai

nP

ola

nd

Net

herl

and

sF

inla

nd

Be

lgiu

mS

wed

en

Au

stri

aC

zech

Re

pub

licR

oma

nia

Slo

vak

Re

pub

licP

ort

uga

lH

ung

ary

Bu

lga

riaG

ree

ceD

enm

ark

Ire

lan

dC

roa

tiaL

ithu

ani

aS

love

nia

Lat

via

Lux

em

bou

rgE

sto

nia

Cyp

rus

Ma

lta

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]


Process cooling -30-0 °C


Space cooling

Space heating





Total



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]

SolarthermalOthers(RES)Others(fossil)Oil

Gas

Electricity

DistrictheatingCoal

Biomass

Industry: Energy carriers and end-uses(EU28, 2015)

• Italy • SwedenLarge pulp & paperindustry

Broad mix ofindustries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

]

Solar thermal

Others (RES)

Others (fossil)

Oil

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass



Industry process heat <500°C:FED EU28 by technology

High share of CHP for steamand hot water generation; still almost 50% individual steam boilers

CHP gas turbine

CHP ICG

CHP steam turbine

Individual boiler

District heat



Industry process heat <500°C: FED EU28 by technology and energy carrier

Gas dominates steamgeneration in boilers,but biomass and coalare also important.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

FE

D fo

r h

ea

t <5

00

°C [T

Wh

] Others (fossil)

Oil

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass



Industry process heat <500°C: FED EU28 by technology and country

Share of CHP in steamand hot watergeneration in 14 HRE core countries rangesbetween 12% andalmost 60%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Hun

gar

y

Ital

y

Net

herl

and

s

Po

lan

d

Rom

an

ia

Sp

ain

Sw

ede

n

Uni

ted

Kin

gd

om

District heat

Individual boiler

CHP steam turbine

CHP ICG

CHP gas turbine



RESIDENTIAL SECTOR



Residential sector: FED for H&C by end-use(EU28, 2015)

7%

77%

15%

1%

Other heating

Space heating

Hot water

Space cooling

At almost 80%, spaceheating mostimportant



Residential sector: FED for H&C by end-useand country (EU28, 2015)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ge

rma

nyF

ran

ceIt

aly

Uni

ted

Kin

gd

omP

ola

nd

Net

herl

and

sB

elg

ium

Sp

ain

Rom

an

iaC

zech

Re

pub

licA

ust

ria

Fin

lan

dS

wed

en

Hun

gar

yD

enm

ark

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

dC

roa

tiaS

lova

k R

epu

blic

Bu

lga

riaL

ithu

ani

aL

atvi

aS

love

nia

Est

on

iaP

ort

uga

lL

uxe

mb

ourg

Cyp

rus

Ma

lta

Space cooling

Other heating

Hot water

Space heating

Space heatingdominant almosteverywhere

Cooling significantonly in southern countries

Hot waterrelatively similaracross countries* Other heating = cooking



Space heating as share of residentialsector’s FED for H&C

Space heating isalso relevant in southern countries!



Residential sector: FED for H&C by energycarrier (EU28, 2015)

43%

16%

14%

12%

9%

4%

1% 1%

Gas

Biomass

Oil

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Heat pumps

Solar thermal

• Natural gas mostimportant: >40%

• Biomass secondhighest share: 16%

• Heat pumps andsolar thermal still marginal (<2%)



Residential sector: FED for H&C by energycarrier and country (EU28, 2015)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ger

ma

ny

Fra

nce

Uni

ted

Kin

gdo

mIta

lyP

ola

nd

Spa

inN

eth

erla

nds

Bel

giu

mR

om

ani

aC

zech

Re

pub

licA

ustr

iaS

wed

en

Hun

gary

Fin

lan

dG

ree

ceD

enm

ark

Irel

and

Cro

atia

Por

tug

alS

lov

ak R

ep

ublic

Bu

lga

riaL

atvi

aLi

thua

nia

Slo

ven

iaE

sto

nia

Lux

embo

urg

Cyp

rus

Ma

lta

FED

H&

C [

TW

h]

Solar thermal

Oil

Heat pumps

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Total

Hugediversityacrosscountries



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Otherheating

Spacecooling

Hot waterSFH

Spaceheating

SFH

Hot waterMFH

Spaceheating

MFH

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

] Solar thermal

Oil

Heat pumps

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Residential sector: FED for H&C bysingle/multi-family house in 2015 (EU28)

SFH twice as relevant as multi‐family houses



Share of SFH in total space heatingdemand (2015)

Importance of SFH varies heavily by member state!



TERTIARY SECTOR



Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by end-use(EU28, 2015)

5%6%

4%

77%

8% Process heating

Process cooling

Space cooling

Space heating

Hot water

Space heating mostimportant



Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by sub-sectorand end-use in 2015 (EU28)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Fin

al

en

erg

y [T

Wh

] Process heating

Process cooling

Space cooling

Space heating

Hot water

Wholesale and retail mostimportant sub‐sector, but all relevant.



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fin

al

en

erg

y fo

r H

&C

[T

Wh

]

Process heating

Process cooling

Space cooling

Space heating

Hot water

Total heating andcooling

Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by end-useand country (EU28, 2015)

Space heating importantin all countriesSouthern countries havesubstantial share ofspace cooling



Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by energycarrier (EU28, 2015)

46%

19%

16%

10%

5%

2% 1%

1% 0%

0%

Gas

Electricity

Oil

District heating

Biomass

Solar thermal

Coal

Heat pumps

Others (fossil)

Others (RES)

Natural gas dominant at >45%

Share of electricitydriven by coolingand processheating



Tertiary sector: FED for H&C by energycarrier and country (EU28, 2015)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ge

rma

nyF

ran

ceIt

aly

Uni

ted

Kin

gd

omS

pai

nP

ola

nd

Net

herl

and

sB

elg

ium

Sw

ede

nA

ust

ria

Fin

lan

dC

zech

Re

pub

licH

ung

ary

Rom

an

iaD

enm

ark

Ire

lan

dS

lova

k R

epu

blic

Gre

ece

Po

rtu

gal

Bu

lga

riaL

atvi

aC

roa

tiaL

ithu

ani

aL

uxe

mb

ourg

Slo

ven

iaE

sto

nia

Cyp

rus

Ma

lta

Solar thermal

Heat pumps

Biomass

District heating

Electricity

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hugediversityacrosscountries



Share of district heating in tertiary sector’sFED for H&C

• Very high shares in Nordic countries

• Average shares in mosteastern countries

• Low shares in individual countries such as UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy



COOLING



FED for cooling by end-use and country(2015)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40It

aly

Sp

ain

Gre

ece

Fra

nce

Po

rtu

gal

Cyp

rus

Ge

rma

ny

Uni

ted

Kin

gd

om

Rom

an

ia

Bu

lga

ria

Ma

lta

Po

lan

d

Net

herl

and

s

Be

lgiu

m

Au

stri

a

Hun

gar

y

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Slo

vak

Re

pub

lic

Cro

atia

Fin

lan

d

Sw

ede

n

Slo

ven

ia

Den

ma

rk

Lux

em

bou

rg

Lith

ua

nia

Ire

lan

d

Lat

via

Est

on

ia

TW

h/y

ea

r

Process cooling Space cooling

• Space cooling relevant in southern countries and marginal in northern countries

• Process cooling more evenly distributed across climate regions



Share of total cooled floor area by country

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

80,0%

90,0%

100,0%

Residential sector Tertiary sector

• Southern countries have higher shares

• Service sector has higher shares than residential sector

• Residential buildings in northern European countries have negligible shares

• Huge future growth in demand expected



MAIN CONCLUSIONS



Main conclusions 2015

• H&C is very important with ~50% of EU28 FED• Very diverse composition of energy carriers for H&C supply

across countries. Still:• Gas is the most dominant fuel in EU28 and in most countries for

H&C.• Fossil fuels account for >65% in EU28 FED for H&C• Of RES, only biomass is used substantially; solar thermal,

geothermal and heat pumps are still marginal in almost everycountry



Main conclusions 2015

• Space heating and process heating most relevant end-uses.• Space heating: SFH twice as important as MFHs as an EU28 average• Process heating: Process heat >200°C accounts for ~50% of industrial

H&C FED, and represents a challenge when switching to RES• Cooling accounts for ~2% of total FED for H&C and currently has low

shares in most countries but the potential to grow strongly in future



ABBREVIATIONS



Abbreviations

• FED: Final energy demand• CHP: Combined heat and power• HRE: Heat Roadmap Europe• ICG: Internal combustion engine• EU: European Union• SFH: Single-family houses• MFH: Multi-family houses

Documents

Profile of heating and cooling demand ... - isi.fraunhofer.de · Fraunhofer ISI et al. (2016). We also refer to this publication for a more detailed We also refer to this publication