Prognos-Report (Multi-Client-Study): Supply of …ashtrans.eu/onewebmedia/9 Prognos study Ashtrans_HAL...Prognos-Report (Multi-Client-Study): Supply of Gypsum to industry in the context

Prognos-Report (Multi-Client-Study):

Supply of Gypsum to industry in the context of

the “energy turnaround" in Europe

ASHTRANS EUROPE 2014, Berlin Holger Alwast Prognos AG 1th and 2th of september 2014

picture source: Fotolia

© 2014 Prognos AG 2

Agenda

01 Prognos in brief

02 Multi-client study approach (Prognos-report)

03 Status quo of the European energy markets

04 Prognos‘ power market model

05 First intermediate results for the Prognos´ “Gypsum study” – Forecast until 2030

06 Conclusions

07 Contact information for the Prognos-Report

© 2014 Prognos AG

Prognos - Developing the future for 55 years

Chronologicum

3

1959 1965 1979 1980 1997 1999 2003 2008 2009 2014

2009

50-year anniversary of Prognos with celebrations in Basel and Berlin

Book „Der Zukunft auf der Spur“ is published

2003

Christian Böllhoff is announced CEO

Transfer of the Cologne office to Düsseldorf

1997

First Prognos Homepage www.prognos.com online

1979

Foundation of the „Circle of Friends Prognos“

6. October 1959

Formation of Prognos AG in Basel by Prof. Dr. Edgar Salin and friends

2014

Expansion of portfolio „Mobility & Transport” (former ProgTrans AG)

2008

New offices in Munich and Stuttgart

1999

New offices in Brussels and Bremen

1980

New office in Cologne followed by a second German office in Berlin 1986

1965

First Prognos Germany Report is released

© 2014 Prognos AG

Prognos Consultancy Fields

4

Cities & Regions Fierce regional competition for businesses, investments and human capital requires strategies that help ensuring a sustainable future development.

Energy & Climate Protection Policy and business decisions determine the security, environmental effects and cost effectiveness of tomorrow’s energy supply.

Infrastructure & Transport Future-proof planning, development and successful communication of technical infrastructures, incl. power plants (energy markets)

Economy & Innovation Supporting innovation, the key determinant for the future competitiveness of our economy, scientific community and society.

Society & State Supporting individual freedom through stable societies and a sustainable configuration of social security systems.

Economy & Labour We help managing globalisation, demographic changes, labour markets and social security systems.

Reliable information has to be based on experience

and professional expertise

The energy market and raw material experts Experience in all energy markets in Europe

Experience for by-products from power plants and raw materials for recovery and disposal

© 2014 Prognos AG 5 5

2. Multi-client study approach (Prognos-Report)

Availability of raw materials for the European gypsum industry –

Need for a study?


© 2014 Prognos AG

Gypsum supply of the gypsum industry in Europe

6

calcium sulphate

Demand of gypsum – direction in which industry is moving?

dihydrate anhydrite

natural gypsum

FGD-gypsum

synthetic gypsum

natural anhydrite

floor screed plasterboard dry powder special gypsum

REACH registration

recycling-gypsum

What is the chance of recycling gypsum in the markets?

REACH registration?

FGD-gypsum

What is the perspective for the markets in the future?

REACH registration?

sources

products

© 2014 Prognos AG

Approach for a multi-client study on the gypsum markets

7

Basic modules:

Reports published by Prognos AG (e.g. German and World Report, Globalisation Report)

Models developed by Prognos AG (e.g. EU power plant model, energy simulation model)

Prognos-Report 2009: (Secondary-) raw material potentials in Europe

locations and main products of the

gypsum processing industry

markets for gypsum products until

2030 (e.g. plasterboard, cement)

gypsum supply (status quo)

natural gypsum deposits

FGD gypsum supply

other synthetic gypsum

gypsum recycling

changes in the European energy

markets until 2030

share of steam coal and lignite of

future energy supply until 2030

scenarios (e.g. without/ with CCS)

FGD gypsum supply within the

countries and in the survey area

until 2030

future supply scenarios for the

gypsum processing and cement

industry until 2030

shares between natural, FGD and

other kinds of synthetic gypsum

recycling of gypsum waste

interim storage of gypsum

scenarios of costs and benefits

Multi-client study

(EU 28 + Norway + Switzerland)

Module 1 Need for gypsum in the markets

Module 2 Impact of the "Energy transition"

Module 3 Need for resources 2030

Aggregation of module-related results

© 2014 Prognos AG 8 8

3. Energy markets in Europe

Status quo of the European energy markets

picture source: Fotolia picture source: Fotolia

© 2014 Prognos AG

Energy production in the analyzed 30 states in Europe (1)

9

Total energy production (power and heat) between 2006 and 2011

Source: Eurostat , analysis Prognos

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

hard coal lignite RES nuclear power gas

nuclear power is the lead production with 27.3% (2011): 922 GWh

renewable production have a market share of 25.4% (2011): 860 GWh

hard coal have a market share of 13.6% (2011): 460 GWh

lignite have a market share of 10.2% (2011): 344 GWh

data in GWh


© 2014 Prognos AG


10

nuclear power is the lead production with 27.3%: 922 GWh

renewable production have a market share of 25.4%: 860 GWh

hard coal have a market share of 13.6%: 460 GWh

lignite have a market share of 10.2%: 344 GWh

Total energy production: 3.383 GWh in 2011


27.3%

10.2%

13.6%

21.7%

1.3%0.5%

25.4%

nuklear power

lignite

hard coal

gas

fuel/ diesel

waste (not regenerative)

regenerative source (RES)


© 2014 Prognos AG


11

hydropower is the lead production with 58%: 500 GWh

windpower have a market share of 21%: 181 GWh

biomass have a market share of 12%: 102 GWh

photovoltaics have a market share of 5%: 45 GWh

Energy production from regenerative sources: 860 GWh in 2011


21%

5%

58%

12%

4%

wind

photovoltaics

hydropower

biomass

others


© 2014 Prognos AG

Region: EU 28 + Norway + Switzerland

States in Europe with different types of coal power plants

12

Source: Euracoal 2014, analysis Prognos

BG

RO

GR

FR

ES PT

IT

UK

IE

NO

SE

FI

DK

LV

LT

EE

DE

PL

HU

SK

CZ

AT

HR SL

CH

TR

BE

NL

LU

MT CY

■ States with lignite and steam coal power plants*

■ States only with steam coal power plants

States without coal power plants

States with lignite power plants:

10 (2013)

States with steam coal power plants:

19 (2013)

States without coal power plants:

7 (2013)

*: EE, GR, HU, SL: only lignite power plants

© 2014 Prognos AG


Lignite and steam coal consumption in states with production

13

Source: Euracoal 2014, estimations Prognos

BG

RO

GR

FR

ES PT

IT

UK

IE

NO

SE

FI

DK

LV

LT

EE*

DE

PL

HU

SK CZ

AT

HR SL

CH

TR

BE

NL

LU

MT CY

30,4

25,5

2,1 1,7

2012 2013

30,2

21,9

1,9 1,8

2012 2013

39,136,0

3,3 2,8

2012 2013

2,4 2,4

2012 2013

166 164

9,8 6,4

2012 2013

9,0

8,8

2012 2013

61,9

54,3

2012 2013

4,4

3,7

2012 2013

63,2 64,652,0 50,0

2012 2013

6,5

2,9

2012 2013

■ States with lignite production and power plants

■ States only with steam coal production and power plants


Lignite

Steam coal

Total consumption of lignite

in 10 states with lignite production:

381 Mt (2013); -6% ggü 2012

407 Mt (2012)

15,2

11,6

2012 2013

Total consumption of steam coal

in 7 states with coal production:

77 Mt (2013); -15% ggü 2012

91 Mt (2012)

*: For EE no data are available

© 2014 Prognos AG


Imports of steam coal to power plants in Europe

14

Source: Euracoal 2014, analysis Prognos

BG

RO

GR**

FR

ES PT

IT

UK

IE

NO

SE

FI

DK

LV

LT

EE**

DE

PL

HU**

SK

CZ

AT

HR SL**

CH

TR

BE

NL

LU

MT CY

■ States with lignite and hard coal power plants**

■ States only with hard coal power plants


**: EE, GR, HU, SL: only lignite power plants

2013 (Mt) 2012 (Mt)

Austria * 1,1 1,4

Belgium * 1,1 1,3

Bulgaria 1,7 2,3

Croatia * 1,0 1,0

Czech Republic 1,0 0,9

Denmark * 5,6 3,9

Finland 3,9 2,8

France * 7,0 7,0

Germany 39,9 35,3

Greece 0,1 0,1

Hungary 0,3 0,1

Ireland * 1,2 2,2

Italy 18,0 18,0

Netherlands 9,0 8,9

Poland 8,5 8,6

Portugal 4,2 5,0

Romania * 0,1 0,1

Slovakia * 0,7 0,4

Slovenia * 0,6 0,4

Spain 10,6 20,1

Sweden 1,0 0,7

United Kingdom 43,7 39,8

Others * 0,3 0,4

EU-30 160,6 160,7

Steam coal importsCOUNTRY

** estimations Prognos based on the data from Euracoal

© 2014 Prognos AG 15 15

4. Prognos‘ power market model

Basic for the modelling and the prognosis of FGD-gypsum until 2030


© 2014 Prognos AG

The development of electricity prices in Europe is affected by several

factors which are reflected in the model

16

Wholesale electricity

market

Electricity demand

CO2 and climate

protection

Phase-out of nuclear

power

Expansion of

renewable energy

Invest-ment cost

Load shift

European electricity

market

Fuel cost

Calculation of a reference development from our expert perspective or

Sensitivity calculations for individual parameters (prices, policy, demand etc.)

© 2014 Prognos AG

We derive the costs of fuel delivery for power plants from the price

development at the international level

17

Oil and hard coal prices depend on worldwide demand

and extraction costs in the relevant countries, as well as

future freight cost in overseas trade. For this aspect, we

analyse current studies, for example, by the IEA and

OPEC.

In the euro area, prices for oil and hard coal are

influenced by changes in exchange rates, for which we

rely on our own studies.

Scenarios of developments paths regarding prices free

at European border of crude oil and hard coal until the

year 2030.

Derivation of prices for natural gas and mineral oil

products through forward projection of relevant price

linkages taking into account changing import contracts

supply structures. We discuss how the oil-gas price

linkage is likely to develop in the future, considering

international gas market trends.

Calculation of fuel delivery costs free at power plant in

Europe under consideration of domestic freight costs,

processing costs and profit margins.

International price

development

Energy price model

Europe

Oil & coal price free at

states border

Natural gas free at

border

Price

relation ?

Domestic

transport

Delivery prices free at

power plant in Europe

© 2014 Prognos AG

With our European power plant model, we calculate electricity market

scenarios beyond the year 2030

18

Determination of future electricity demand through our energy

demand models

Modelling of the future load curve as well as hourly electricity feed-

in from renewable energy and combined heat and power

Calculation of resulting hourly load, which has to be met by

conventional power plants

Unit-wise adjustment of installed capacity by shutdown periods and

calculation of available power plant capacity

Verification whether the available power plant capacity is sufficient

to meet the hourly load, taking into account a 10% reserve capacity

In case of insufficient capacity, purely economic decision about the

new construction of plants or retrofit of old plants to be retired.

Modelling of hourly power plant utilisation (merit order) on the basis

of fuel costs, variable operating and start-up costs

Calculation of hourly electricity prices given the marginal cost of

the last utilised power plant.

Calculation of the Hourly Price Forward Curve (HPFC), electricity

prices for the commercial products Base and Peak, as well as prices

for CO2

Load curve

Hourly electricity

demand

Power plant model

Available capacity

New construction /

retrofit

Shortfall in

supply?

Hourly electricity

prices on the basis of

marginal costs

HFC, CO2 prices

Modelling the

merit order

© 2014 Prognos AG

We derive the annual gypsum production from the utilisation of power

plants, their efficiency and fuel gas scrubbing.

19

Modelling of the future annual plant utilisation with the

power market model.

The plant efficiency and the heating value define the

annual primary fuel demand of the power unit in metric

tons.

Together with the flue gas desulfurisation approach

and the primary fuel’s sulfur content, the future annual

gypsum production can be calculated.

The gas desulfurisation approach was gathered through

desk research for most of the large power plants in

Europe.

The average sulfur content for lignite was obtained from

the open cast mining sites in the 10 member states and

company information.

The average sulfur content of the steam coal plants per

country have been evaluated by modelling a country’s

coal portfolio used in power stations based on historic

data, imports of hard coal and company information.

Annual utilisation of

specific power plants

Combustion model

Plant type and

efficiency

Primary fuel

consumption

Heating

value

Flue gas

scrubbing

Annual gypsum

production

© 2014 Prognos AG 20 20

5. First intermediate results for the

Prognos´ “Gypsum Study”

Forecast for FGD-gypsum and other gypsum sources until 2030

- Final results exits end of the year 2014 -


© 2014 Prognos AG

Net electricity generation by fuel type in a number of selected

countries (just for example: 16 EU member states - intermediate)

Alle betrachteten Länder

21

782 778 776 764 771 756 711 670 653 620 563 540 501 445 411 366 325 278

255 257 252 243 230 220 216 200 201 204 202 199 192 184 182 178 175 168

516 531 513 471 456 424 432392 317 312 294 281 253

224 219 194 198 188

429 378 362 363 354 380 392 454485 487 529 533 568

594 596 631 631 656

863 904 945 1,013 1,053 1,096 1,140 1,185 1,256 1,300 1,345 1,389 1,435 1,510 1,556 1,602 1,649 1,694

2,901 2,900 2,901 2,907 2,915 2,926 2,938 2,950 2,961 2,971 2,981 2,989 2,996 3,003 3,010 3,016 3,022 3,028

Total RES Other conventional Oil Gas Coal Lignite Nuclear

Source: analysis and estimations Prognos

data in GWh/y


© 2014 Prognos AG

7,2 7,16,0 5,3

3,5

4,4 4,3

3,42,5

1,8

8,0 8,3

7,9

7,4

6,4

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

18,00

20,00

22,00

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Germany other EU 14 EU 13; NO, CH

FGD-Gypsum production from lignite and hard coal power plants

All countries, differentiated into olt (EU 15) and new member states (EU 13 +NO, +CH)

22


data in Mt/y

19,6 19,7

17,3

15,2

11,7


© 2014 Prognos AG

Domestic gypsum demand in the gypsum plasterboard plants


23


data in Mt/y

2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,1

8,4 8,7 9,1 9,6 10,2

2,22,3

2,32,4

2,6

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030


13,4 13,9 14,4

15,0 15,8


© 2014 Prognos AG

FDG-Gypsum consumption in the gypsum plasterboard plants


24


data in Mt/y

1,5 1,5 1,3 1,2 1,1

3,7 3,73,6

3,43,1

1,9 2,02,1

2,12,1

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030


7,1 7,2 7,0 6,7 6,3


© 2014 Prognos AG

Recycled gypsum for the gypsum industry per region


25


data in Mt/y

0,2 0,40,6

0,9 1,0

1,21,3

1,6

2,2

2,8

0,20,3

0,3

0,5

0,6

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030


1,6

1,9

2,5

3,6

4,4


© 2014 Prognos AG

Natural-Gypsum consumption in the gypsum plasterboard plants


26


data in Mt/y

1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0

4,8 4,9 4,9 4,6 4,4

0,8 0,7 0,60,5

0,5

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030


6,6 6,6 6,2

6,1 5,9


© 2014 Prognos AG 27 27

6. Conclusions


© 2014 Prognos AG

First conclusions for the gypsum markets until 2030

Volumes of FGD gypsum from coal-fired power plants

Until 2030 in Europe the volumes of FGD gypsum from coal-fired power plants will decline

by around 40%.

In Germany the FGD gypsum volume will halve by 2030.

For the other states in Western Europe, the decrease amounts to around 60%.

In Eastern Europe the volumes of FGD gypsum will fall by only 20%.

Needs of the gypsum-processing industry (plasterboard plants)

In Europe the gypsum volumes required by plasterboard plants will grow by 17%,

amounting to almost 16 million tons in 2030.

Within this process, the need for gypsum increases significantly especially in the gypsum

processing industry of Western Europe.

In 2012 the need for gypsum was with 7.2 million tons (about 64%) met by FGD gypsum.

By 2030 this share will be significantly reduced to 6.3 million tons (48%).

Opportunity for the recovery of gypsum from products (gypsum recycling)

For plasterboard plants the recycling of gypsum will increase substantially; from Europe-

wide approximately 1.7 million tons in 2012 to 4.5 million tons in 2030.

Therefore, up to the year 2030 the demand for natural gypsum will decrease slightly by 12%.

28

© 2014 Prognos AG

│ Goethestr. 85 │ D-10623 Berlin

Tel: +49 30 520059-234

mobil: +49160 882 90 234

E-Mail: [email protected]

Holger Alwast

Leader of the section

waste management & secondary raw materials

29

│ Goethestr. 85 │ D-10623 Berlin

Tel: +49 30 520059-237

mobil: +49170 91 968 97

E-Mail: [email protected]

Frank Peter

Senior project manager

7. Contact information for the Prognos-Report

© 2014 Prognos AG 30

www.prognos.com

30

We provide orientation. Prognos AG – European Center for Economic Research and Strategy Consulting

http://www.prognos.com/

Documents

Prognos-Report (Multi-Client-Study): Supply of …ashtrans.eu/onewebmedia/9 Prognos study Ashtrans_HAL...Prognos-Report (Multi-Client-Study): Supply of Gypsum to industry in the context