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Programmatic Futures: Global trends & the
opportunity for GreeceAthens, 5 April 2019
Dr. Daniel KnappChief Economist, IAB Europe
Market update
2
Assuming slowdown of overall digital growth to ~7% yoy, programmatic in Europe to grow 2.5x between 2017-23
3
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Europe: Programmatic Ad Spend
Programmatic Traditional
+ €17.7bn
€m
Sources: IAB Europe, own calculations
Programmatic is the new ‘digital’: an increasingly unnecessary pre-fix
4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f
Europe: Programmatic share of total digital advertising
programmatic share traditional share
Sources: IAB Europe, own calculations
5
Greece: excavating the programmatic future
Scope for digital ad growth in Greece
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Greece: Digital Ad Spend per Capita
Low Middle High
Scenarios based on:
• GDP forecasts
• Ad budget migration
• Ad industry development index
+€12.6
+€7.6
+€7.6
Programmatic traction around the corner?
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Greece: Programmatic share of digital today & growth scenario
State of leading programmatic markets 2013-2014
Acceleration of growth 3x*
Sources: Own estimates. Spend estimates based on DSP/SSP data April 2018-March 2019, and benchmark with markets where share is known. Extrapolated to full year. Includes platform companies. May include some traffic from Greece on sites outside Greece.
*Assumption based on typical growth trajectory in previously emerging programmatic markets once critical mass is reached.
Video expands programmatic opportunity
8
How should we define ‘video programmatic’?
9
Prog
ram
mat
ic
Onl
ine
Vide
o
Conn
ecte
d TV
Addr
essa
ble
TV/H
bbTV
Prog
ram
mat
icLi
near
TV
Subs
titut
iona
l Lin
ear
Targ
etin
g
mature emerging theoretical
€4bn today (Europe)
€20bn potential market (Europe)
Video is gaining share of programmatic
10
2013
video banner
2017
video banner
2023
video banner
Sources: IAB Europe historicals, own forecasts
Europe: Video vs. Banner share of programmatic spend
CTV advertising is connector between internet video and living room
11
84
3345
27
7.2
180
144
8166 58.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
UK France Germany Spain Italy
Gross Spend on CTV advertising (€m)
2018 2023
Sources: own calculations, SpotX/MTM, company data
Now that the programmatic pipes have been laid: let the real value creation begin
12
AI: fine line between hype & reality
13
55.8%
44.2%
Europe: AI Start-Ups
found to use AI no evidence of using AI
Source: MMC Ventures, n = 2830
CMOs must deliver business results, not just hit marketing KPIs
14%
9%
45%
33%
“Does your marketing organization have its own P&L
to capture revenue?”
No, but plan to in the next 24 monthsNo, and no plans to add within next 24 monthsYes, has own P&LYes, but shares P&L with other business units
Source: Gartner, n = 348
Execution requires the combination of programmatic & custom KPIs
• KPIs: brands increasingly define custom business success metrics
• Orchestration: always-on orchestration, not just buying, across channels is required
• Business integration: adaptive feedback loops between programmatic execution and business needs close CMO/CFO gap
14
Opportunities for Greece
15
Chance for Greece
• Greece has a 2nd mover advantage• Potential & pitfalls of
programmatic have been defined• Chance to build a
sustainable ecosystem• Success will not come
automatically - do’s & don’ts important
16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Recap: Programmatic share of digital in Greece
Dos & Don’ts
17
Brands
• Ask tough questions• Build in-house expertise• Treat programmatic with the
same care as the rest of your supply chain
• FOFO (Fear of finding out)• Outsource all responsibility
Agencies
• Invest in talent• Cut out bad actors• Embrace transparent models
• Oversell your technology• Hidden arbitrage models
Publishers
• Scrutinize SSPs• Optimize selling paths • Build in-house expertise
• Follow static waterfall models• Undersell for short-term gains