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Progress of HM & POP modelling from global to country scale
Ilya Ilyin, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Alexey Gusev
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Outline
Overview of the GLEMOS (Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System) model
Multi-model study of Hg processes and pollution levels
Research activities related to global POP transport
Country-scale modelling: HM case study for Belarus
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Anthropogenicemissions
Atmosphere
Land
Ocean
Human & environmentexposure (CCE)
Met
eoro
logy
,
ocea
n da
ta
Geophysics
Atm
osp
her
icd
epo
siti
on
Co
ncen
tration
in m
edia
Model development
Global EMEP Multi-media Modelling System (GLEMOS)
Main features:
• Multi-pollutant (heavy metals, POPs, aerosol, …)
• Multi-media formulation
• Multi-scale consistent approach (from global to local)
• Based on parameterisations of previous MSC-E models
GLEMOS – new generation EMEP model for HMs and POPs aimed at replacement of previously used MSCE-HM and MSCE-POP models
GLEMOS general scheme
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Multi-model study of mercury
Hg processes in the atmosphere
GLEMOS model development
EU GMOS Mercury Modelling Task Force
Model ensemble:
GLEMOS EMEP/MSC-E
ICHMERIT CNR-IIA (Italy)
GRAHM Environment Canada
GEOS-Chem MIT (USA)
CMAQ-Hg-Hem Lamar University (USA)
WRF-Chem CNR-IIA (Italy)
CMAQ-Hg HZG (Germany)
Objectives:
• Multi-model evaluation of Hg atmospheric processes
• Assessment of Hg intercontinental transport and future scenarios
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Evaluation of Hg atmospheric processes
RV Urania
Ground-based sites
Marine cruises
Aircraft measurements
0
2
4
6
88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110
DOY
No
rma
lize
d G
OM
co
nc. Observations
Run 3
Run 5
Run 9
Hg0 + O3
Hg0 + OHHg0 + Br
Observations
Effect of different Hg oxidation processes on Hg(II)gas concentration at Waldhof (DE2)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
-130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10
Longitude
TG
M,
ng
/m3
Frankfurt - Vancouver (23 Jul 2009)
Stratosphere
Troposphere
Effect of Hg0 depletion in the stratosphere during CARIBIC flights
GLEMOS model development
Multi-model study of mercury
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Industrial sources
Hg deposition from different emission sectors (2013)(UNEP/AMAP expert estimates)
Stationary combustion
Multi-model study of mercury
Intentional use and product waste
Speciation of global Hg emissions
0 300 600 900
Intentional use & product waste
Industrial sources
Stationary combustion
Hg emissions, t/y
Hg0
HgIIgas
HgIIpart
GLEMOS model development
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Assessment of future emission scenarios (2035)2035
Current policy
New policy
Maximum feasible reduction
Simulated Hg deposition in 2010 and 2035
2010
Emission data source: GMOS/AMAP estimates
GLEMOS model development
Multi-model study of mercury
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Investigation of global POP transport using GLEMOS
Research activities:
Investigation POP long-range transport and role of secondary sources
Assessment of intercontinental transport and source-receptor relationships (TF HTAP)
Multi-model study of global POP pollution
Verification of modelling results against UNEP SC GMP measurement data
Models:
GLEMOS (EMEP/MSC-E)
BETR-Research (ETH, Switzerland and SU, Sweden)
Substances:
PCBs, PCDD/Fs, HCB, …
GLEMOS model development
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Annual mean concentrations of PCB-153 for 2012 (one-year model run)
Investigation POP long-range transport and role of air-surface exchange
Air concentrations due to single-hop and multi-hop transport from non-
EMEP emissions sources (one-year model run)
Long-range transport of POPs
Single-hop
Continent B
Multi-hop
Continent A
0E+00
2E-03
4E-03
6E-03
8E-03
Single-hop Multi-hop
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, pg
/m3
GLEMOS model development
EMEP region
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Source-Receptor modeling experiments using new HTAP division sources/receptor (HTAP2)
Modeled annual mean PCB-153 air concentrations for 2012
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
PC
B-1
53 c
once
ntra
tion,
pg/
m3
Anthropogenic
Secondary sources
Intercontinental POP transport: Influence of secondary sources
EMEP
Source/receptor regions
GLEMOS model development
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg TEQ/m3
M
od
elle
d,
fg T
EQ
/m3 North America
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg TEQ/m3
M
od
elle
d,
fg T
EQ
/m3 Eastern Asia
Modelled vs. observed PCDD/F air concentrations
Comparison of modelled PCDD/F air concentrations against UNEP GMP measurements in South America in 2012 (Schuster et al., EST, 2015)
Modelling with experimental emission scenario based on UNEP SC dioxins inventory
Investigation of global transport and fate of PCDD/Fs
GLEMOS model development
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg TEQ/m 3
M
od
elle
d,
fg T
EQ
/m3 Europe
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100
Observed, fg TEQ/m3
Mo
de
lled
, fg
TE
Q/m
3
South America
Outcome of POP research activities will be presented to UNEP SC
(SC conference, Geneva, May 2015)
Measurements: Global Monitoring Plan of SC
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
From global to regional scale
Nested simulations on the new EMEP grid
Hg total deposition over the globe (1°×1°)
Hg deposition over the new EMEP grid (0.2°×0.2°)
National scale Case Studies
Belarus
GLEMOS model development
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Country-scale pollution assessment
Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries
Approach:
Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data
Requirements:
• Detailed emissions data (fine resolution, source categories, LPS)
• Additional measurements from national monitoring networks
• Participation of national experts in joint analysis of the results
Countries involved:
Country Czech Rep Croatia Netherlands Belarus Poland
Status complete complete complete in progress planned
Croatia
Netherlands
Czech Republic
EMEP HM case study
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Preparation of input dataemissionsmeasurementsmeteorology concentrations in soilsboundary concentrations
…..
Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) 50x50 km2
- EMEP countries: CEIP- Belarus: national experts
Data sources:
EMEP HM case study
10x10 km2
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
EMEP HM case study
Preparation of input dataemissionsmeasurementsmeteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations…..
Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012)
BY urban stations (national experts)Berezinskiy reserve (national experts)EMEP station (CCC)PL stations (AirBase)
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Preparation of input dataemissionsmeasurementsmeteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations…..
Modelling over for selected domain with fine (10x10 km) resolution
Analysis of the results (together with national experts)
EMEP HM case study
Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012)
BY urban stations (national experts)Berezinskiy reserve (national experts)EMEP station (CCC)PL stations (AirBase)
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Preparation of input dataemissionsmeasurementsmeteorology concentrations in soils boundary concentrations…..
Modelling over for selected domain with fine (10x10 km) resolution
Analysis of the results (together with national experts)
EMEP HM case study
Major steps of HM case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012)
BY urban stations (national experts)Berezinskiy reserve (national experts)EMEP station (CCC)PL stations (AirBase)
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Modelling of pollution levels in the EMEP domainPurpose: to generate boundary concentrations for country-scale modelling domain
ng/m3
- obs. sites
50x50 km2 10x10 km2
Pb in air, 2012
The model reasonably well reproduces Pb pollution in the EMEP region, keeping in mind existing uncertainties (EMEP/MSC-E status report 2014)
~ 40 stations
EMEP domain
Agreed domain
EMEP HM case study
Boundary conditions
0.1 1 10 50
0.1
1
10
50Pb air conc.
Mod
el, n
g/m
3
Observed, ng/m3
Bias = 7.9 %Rcorr = 0.9NRMSE = 0.57F2 = 69%F3 = 89%
Pb in air
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
PL0538Brz
PL5PL0531
PL0148
PL0507
PL0214
Country-scale modelling (Pb, 2012)
Total deposition Air concentration
ng/m3kg/m3/y
10x10 km2 10x10 km2
EMEP stationPL5, Poland
Background urban stations, Poland (AirBase)
EMEP HM case study
Background station Belarus (non-EMEP)
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
PL0538
Brz
PL5PL0531
PL0148
PL0507
PL0214
Modelled concentrations in air in 2012 with 10x10 km2 resolution
Modelled vs. observed air concentrations at station Berezinskiy reserve (non-EMEP station)
ng/m3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361
Day of year
Con
cent
ratio
n in
air,
ng/
m3 Observed
Modelled (10x10)Obs. mean: 2.3 ng/m3
Mod. mean: 0.8 ng/m3
Uncertainly of measurements can be estimated through participation of BY in intercalibration tests (is to be discussed with CCC)
EMEP HM case study
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361
Day of year
Con
cent
ratio
n in
air,
ng/
m3 Observed
Modelled (10x10)
04 - 08 Mar. 2012
Future work: application of inverse modelling approach and develop emission scenarios
Analysis of back trajectories (Berezinskiy reserve)
27 – 29 Apr. 2012
EMEP HM case study
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Modelled vs. observed air concentrations at Polish stations
PL0148A
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
in a
ir, n
g/m
3
Observed
Modelled
PL0538A
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
in a
ir, n
g/m
3
Observed
Modelled
PL0531A
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
in a
ir, n
g/m
3
Observed
Modelled
PL0214A
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
in a
ir, n
g/m
3
Observed
Modelled
PL0507A
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
in a
ir, n
g/m
3 Observed
Modelled
PL5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
in a
ir, n
g/m
3 Observed
Modelled
EMEP station
National experts from PL need to be involved into analysis
Reasonable agreement in warm period; underestimation in cold period No seasonal variability is officially reported in emission data
EMEP HM case study
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Poland
Czech
Rep
.
Germ
any
Spain
Belaru
s
Pb
air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3
Observed Pb air concentrations at urban stations
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Poland
Czech
Rep
.
Germ
any
Spain
Belaru
s
Me
an
em
iss
ion
flu
x, k
g/k
m2 /y Pb
emission flux
Observed conc.
Observed air conc. in BY and other countries are comparable
Discussion on emission and measurement issues with national experts (BY, RU…) and with EMEP centres (CEIP, CCC) is needed
EMEP HM case study
0
100
200
300
400
500
Poland
Czech
Rep
.
Germ
any
Spain
Belaru
s
Me
an
em
iss
ion
flu
x, k
g/k
m2 /y PM2.5
emission flux
16th TFMM Meeting, 5 – 8 May, 2015
Further steps on Case Study activity with Belarus
2. Application of inverse modelling approach. Construct emission scenarios.
3. Cooperation with national experts from other neighboring countries (PL, RU, UA…) and EMEP centres (CCC, CEIP) is needed. Possible extension of modeling domain to include neighboring countries.
4. Pay attention to other pollutants. Compare results for Pb with traditional pollutants (S, N, PM), involving MSC-W.
1. Case study for Belarus can be used to test approach of pollution level assessment in other countries of the EECCA region.
5. Prepare detailed country-specific information for Belarus with fine spatial resolution:
Maps of pollution levels Contributions of foreign and secondary sources Pollution levels in individual regions Contribution of emission source categories Background levels for cities
EMEP HM case study