Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Ferrexpo GroupProgress through volatile times
Kostyantin Zhevago - CEO
Credit Suisse Global Metals & Mining Conference 23 September 2009
Disclaimer
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation or inducement to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in the Company or any other securities, nor shall any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. No information made available to you in connection with this document may be passed on, copied, reproduced, in whole or in part, or otherwise disseminated, directly or indirectly, to any other person.
Some of the information in this document is still in draft form and is subject to verification, finalisation and change. Neither the Company nor its affiliates nor advisers are under an obligation to correct, update or keep current the information contained in this document or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law.
No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the Company's directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company's members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or opinions otherwise arising in connection therewith.
This presentation and its contents are confidential. By reviewing and/or attending this presentation you are deemed to accept that you are under a duty of confidentiality in relation to the contents of this presentation. You agree that you will not at any time have any discussion, correspondence or contact concerning the information in this document with any of the directors or employees of the Company or its subsidiaries nor with any of their customers or suppliers, or any governmental or regulatory body without the prior written consent of the Company.
Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document and any materials distributed in connection with this document are forward-looking. The statements typically contain words such as "anticipate", "assume", "believe", "estimate", "expect", "plan", "intend" and words of similar substance. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risk, uncertainties and assumptions could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. Statements contained in the document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation or warranty (express or implied) that such trends or activities will continue in the future. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit forecast. You should not place reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document.
You should not base any behaviour in relation to financial instruments related to the Company's securities or any other securities and investments on information until after it is made publicly available by the Company or any of their respective advisers. Any dealing or encouraging others to deal on the basis of such information may amount to insider dealing under the Criminal Justice Act 1993 and to market abuse under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
2
GROWTH
INVESTMENT CASE
RECENT PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
Agenda
INTRODUCTION
Ferrexpo – a Snapshot
> UK-incorporated plc
> Full Main Board LSE listing since June 2007 - FTSE
250 member
> UK Corporate Governance in place - independent
Board
> Swiss headquarters (marketing & finance) – Swiss
tax domicile
> Ukrainian mining operations
Corporate outlineKey facts
> Produce exclusively iron ore pellets
> 44% of production is high-quality 65% Fe pellets –
remainder is 62% Fe pellets
> Produced 9.0mt in both 2007 & 2008
> Processing plant capacity of 12mtpa
> Approximately 6.5 billion tonnes of JORC resources
> Average ore grade c. 30% Fe
> Further c. 14 billion tonnes of resources classified
under Soviet GKZ Code
> Primarily an export business
> Supplies customers in Central and Eastern Europe
and Asia
> Operating for 30 years
> Very large iron ore resource – largest in Europe
> Location ‘on the doorstep of Europe’ - proximity to key
customers
– Continuous rail ‘just in time’ delivery service to
many customers
– Lowest cost of supply to key customers
> Very strong customer relationships in Traditional
(Europe) and Growth (Asia) markets
Competitive advantages Growth
> Major capital projects on hold due to downturn
> Plans to double then quadruple production remain
a priority
> Focus now on efficiency of existing operations and
product quality
3
World Class Resources
14,000
20,500
3,2034,178
11,968
15,202
6,583
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ferrexpo Vale Rio Tinto BHP
Billiton
Fortescue Kumba
JORC GKZ Unspecified
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Russia Ukraine Sweden Kazakhstan
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000Production Resources Column 4
U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2009 1) RioTinto, Fortescue & Kumba: Total attributable resources, Annual
Report 2007
2) BHPBilliton: Total resources, Annual Report 2008
3) Vale: Approximation based on information on company website
Iron ore mining companies – resource comparison Production and resources in and near Europe
mt mt mt
4
5
Ideal Location
Ferrexpo is beneficially situated close to its core markets
Canada
South
Africa
India
China
Europe &
Middle East
6
Flexible Marketing Strategy
3.0%
4.5%
11.8%
54.0%
26.8%Ukraine
Traditional Markets
Natural Markets
Growth Markets
India
Market Mix by Sales Volume
H1 2009
14.5%
67.1%
2.2%
16.2%
Ukraine
Traditional Markets
Natural Markets
Growth Markets
H1 2008
14.5%
67.1%
2.2%
16.2%
12.0%
Ukraine Europe/Traditional Markets Turkey China India
7
GROWTH
INVESTMENT CASE
RECENT PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
Agenda
INTRODUCTION
Strong Production and Sales Performance
2.3 2.3
2.5
1.9 1.9
2.22.1
2.3
1.9
1.7
2.52.5
45.8%
51.9%
42.0% 41.5%42.8%
52.9%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%Pellets Produced Pellets Sold % 65% Fe Pellets Produced
Production stable and quality improved
mt %
> Continuing operational improvement
– Record production in the first 10 months of 2008 – deliberate decrease thereafter
– 8.5% increase in production of 65% Fe pellets over 2008, 4.3% increase in H1 2009
> Record price settlements (in excess of the Benchmark) for the 2008/2009 contract year
> All 2008 and H1 2009 production sold
2008 2009
8
51.6
74.3
61.8
72.3
124.6
65.6
22.7
29.9 29.3
31.8
42.4
34.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Average Achieved Price (FOB) C1 Costs
Maintaining Margins
Achieved Prices vs Cash Production Costs (US$/t)
Ferrexpo is managing factors within its control to ensure continued positive margins
1) 2009 data are YTD averages weighted by sales volume to end August 2009
1
1
9
76
142 147
126
7759
c.71 c.71
12
186180
159
76 7569
95
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Sales Price (DAF/FOB) Implied 2009 Benchmark (DAF/FOB) MB CFR China Fines Spot
Achieved Prices – Likely Upside
Dollar per tonne average achieved prices (on a DAF/FOB basis) by quarter
US$/t
2008 2009
?
2008
Benchmark
Settlement
2009 Vale Pellet
Settlement – ‘Implied
Benchmark’
Ferrexpo achieved prices likely to trend upwards to the Vale ‘implied benchmark’ in H2 2009
(July + Aug average)
2
1. ‘Implied Benchmark’ calculated using Vale reduction of 48.3% applied to actual Ferrexpo contract average (i.e. adjusted for Fe content and quality)
2. Expressed as a quarterly average, except Q3 2009, which is the July 2009 average
1
10
40.9
0.5
1.70.21.2
0.9
2.3
0.0 0.5 34.5
H1 2
008
Die
sel F
uel
Ele
ctr
icity
Grindin
g M
edia
Spare
s &
Main
tenance
Labour
Natu
ral G
as
Oth
er
Costs
Explo
siv
es
H1 2
009
11
Costs Breakdown
1 C1 costs are total cash costs of production of pellets from produced concentrate, ex-works
C1 Costs1 by input ($/t) – H1 2009
Other
10%
Electricity
27%
Natural Gas
13%
Diesel Fuel
8%Explosives
3%
Labour
13%
Spares &
Maintenance
16%
Grinding Media
10%
Total: $34.5
C1 Costs waterfall H1 2008 – H1 2009 ($/t)
Energy-related costs comprise 51% of Ferrexpo’s cash costs of production
Ukrainian Economic Environment Improving
• IMF third tranche released
• IMF approval of economic conditions / policies
• Now over $10bn released
• Consumer confidence improving
• Steel industry capacity utilisation increasing
• Ferrexpo supplying IUD again
• Hyrvnia exchange rate broadly stable
12
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Jan-0
8
Feb-0
8
Mar-
08
Apr-
08
May-0
8
Jun-0
8
Jul-08
Aug-0
8
Sep-0
8
Oct-
08
Nov-0
8
Dec-0
8
Jan-0
9
Feb-0
9
Mar-
09
Apr-
09
May-0
9
Jun-0
9
Jul-09
China European Union Turkey CIS
Steel Restocking – A Positive Trend
Monthly Crude Steel Production (% YoY)
Steel restocking trend moving from China to Ferrexpo’s core markets
Source: World Steel Association
13
India – Starting to Realise Potential
Ferrexpo has started to supply north-western India
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
China - 2002 India - 2009
0.05
0.14
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
China - 2002 India - 2009
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Population
Apparent Steel Consumption
Per Capital Steel Consumption
Source: World Steel Association, Nationmaster.com, World Bank, Economist Intelligence Unit, Ferrexpo analysis
GDP in China in 2002 vs India in 2009 (US$bn) Steel Consumption – Significant Upside
mm t / capita
14
15
GROWTH
INVESTMENT CASE
RECENT PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
Agenda
INTRODUCTION
Substantial Potential for Brownfield Growth
Gorishne – Plavnikoe 2,718mt
Galeshchinskoe 325mt
Lavrikovskoe 986mt
Belanovskoe 1,664mt
Yeristovskoe 861mt
Brovarskoe
KharchenkovskoeVasilyvskoe
Manuylovskoe
Current mining
operations
c.14bnt
Source: Ferrexpo plc
Growth projects remain a priority
Dnieper River
50
km
35 36
12
1228
16
15
23
43
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
H1 2007 H1 2008 H1 2009
GPL Sustaining GPL Development
YBG Development Railcars & Logistics
Area Infrastucture & Utilities
53.443.2
131.2
• Pre-export financing facility with US$244 million
outstanding
• Net debt at 30 June 2009 was US$222 million –
in line with 2008 year-end
• Cash of US$75 million as at period end (Y/E
2008: US$87.8 million)
• Dividend decision in October
Capital Expenditure and Debt Position
16
Advanced Pipeline of Growth Projects
Indicative estimates only
Source: Ferrexpo plc
Growth projects largely on hold – but remain a priority
Dnieper River
50km
≤$250$250-$750
$750+
GPL Concentrator
Upgrade
GPL Mine
Expansion
North
Yeristovskoye
Mine
Yeristovskoye
Concentrator
Yeristovskoye
Pelletising Plant
Belanovskoye
Concentrator
Belanovskoye
Mine
Belanovskoye
Pelletising Plant
Mining
Beneficiation
Pelletising
Underway
Option under consideration
Licence maintenance
1-3 years 4-6 years 7-10 years
17
18
GROWTH
INVESTMENT CASE
RECENT PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK
Agenda
INTRODUCTION
Established and Producing for 30 Years
19
20
2010 and Beyond
Strategy
> Maintain full production
> Reduce costs
> Remain flexible
> Remain profitable
What’s next?
> Outlook for global iron ore remains uncertain, but is improving
> Returning to portfolio of long term contract customers
> Increasing market share in Traditional markets
> Opening new markets
> Refocusing on growth
Compelling investment case
The only pure play iron ore company in the FTSE UK indices
One of the largest iron ore resources in the world
Capacity to accelerate growth when prudent
Strong strategic marketing capability and customer relationships
Location, location, location
21