Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress

Progress towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality

Bo Diczfalusy Senior Adviser, Nordic Energy Research

Staying on track for a low carbon energy future

CO2 emissions in NETP scenarios

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Historical Scenarios

Nordic

4DS

Global

4DS

CNS

2DS

Fig 1.1: Reduction pathways for energy-related CO2 by scenario (indexed to 1990)

The five Nordic countries have some of the most ambitious energy and climate policies in the world. Despite this, achieving the Paris Climate Agreement’s vision of maintaining the global temperature rise “well below two degrees” will require radical change.

Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP) presents a detailed scenario-based analysis of how the Nordic countries can achieve a near carbon neutral energy system by 2050. The report is a Nordic edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (ETP).

This publication evaluates the progress being made towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality and compares progress with the Carbon Neutral Scenario (CNS) in NETP 2016. The NETP publication and this publication deal with energy-related CO2 emissions, which account for just under two-thirds of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Nordic region.

Carbon-Neutral Scenario establishes minimum requirements for mitigating CO2 emissions

“The aim of the Nordic countries is to be carbon neutral and to demonstrate leadership in the fight against global warming.”

These were the words of the Nordic prime ministers in their declaration at a summit in Helsinki on 25 January 2019 as part of

active Nordic climate cooperation under the auspices of the Nordic Council of Ministers.

Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps

Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed

Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT

ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS

ENERGY STORAGE & CCS

TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY

GREEN MOBILITY

THE BIG PICTURE

Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress

THE BIG PICTURE

0%

50%

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250%

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350%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GDP

GDP (CNS)

Total PrimaryEnergyDemandTotal PrimaryEnergyDemand (CNS)CO2

CO2 (CNS)50%

70%

90%

110%

130%

150%

170%

190%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Current Progress

Higher GDP growth than expected, and lower emission growth. Emissions reductions have stalled recently.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GW

h

Solar Wind Geothermal

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2005 2010 2015

GW

h

Wind power generation is almost haft-way to

the CNS 2030 target of 75 TWh

Geothermal is 1 TWhfrom CNS 2050 target of

TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

Nordic renewable electricity generation (excl. hydro)

Solar already close to CNS 2030 target

of 1 TWh

6 TWh

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016 2007 2016

Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Sweden

MtC

O2

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70

2007

2016

CNS2030

CO2 emissions (MtCO2) from power and district heatTRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

25%

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

-1 000 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000

2013

2050

Net electricity import

Biomass and waste

Wind, geothermal and solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

→

in primary energy

consumption

Bioenergy production is increasing and is expected to be the single largest energy carrier in 2050.

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2016

PJ

Other RE

Bio-ethanol/-ETBE

Bio-diesel

RE electricity

Over 100% increase in RE

48

105

Requirements for renewable fuels begin to bite in the Nordics.

Renewable consumption in the transport sector (PJ)

> 80%Biofuels

Requirements for renewable fuels begin to bite in the Nordics.

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2016

PJ

Other RE

Bio-ethanol/-ETBE

Bio-diesel

RE electricity

Over 100% increase in RE

48

105

> 80%Biofuels

In 2050 the CNS expects biofuels for transport to

reach 470 PJ

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

Securing sustainable production of biofuels is still a challenge.

Renewable consumption in the transport sector (PJ)

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Electric Plug-in electric Fuel cell

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

3,5%

4,0%

4,5%

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Nordic statistics CNS

Light-duty vehicles are on track

Share of electric vehicles in light-duty vehicle stock (CNS) and “zoom in” on the actual Nordic share from 2010-2018 in relation to CNS targets

1%

4.1%

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Norway Iceland Sweden Finland Denmark

2018

Over 100.000 electric vehicles were sold in 2018

72,600

28,800

2,600

4,700

5,600

Battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles share of new passenger vehicle sales. Piechart: Number of new passenger vehicle sales (BEV and PHEV) in 2018

DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY

Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry

Fig 7.3: Final energy consumption (PJ) in industry

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PJ

Fossil fuels Biomass Waste Derived heat Electricity

in final energy consumption in industry from 2007-2016

1495 PJ in 2007

1342 PJ in 2017

→

24%

→

In fossil fuels from 2007-2016

We need to cut the energy

intensity of Nordic buildings

by more than half.kWh/m2 in 2016

213

kWh/m2 in 2050

89

Average energy intensity in Nordic buildings

Powerhouse Brattørkaia( -4,9 kWh/m2), Norway. Photo: Ivar Kvaal

ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS

ENERGY STORAGE & CCS

24%

→

Hydropower is the main source for energy storage, but new tech is emerging like thermal storage.

ENERGY STORAGE & CCS

Carbon Capture and Storage in Industry

24%

→

Nordic industrial emissions in 2050

Total20 Mt CO2

Captured7 Mt CO2

Red – Not on track / Insufficient steps

Yellow – Greater effort is required but critical steps are being addressed

Green – On track / Sufficiently promising efforts and impact

BOOSTING BIOENERGY

ELECTRIFICATION OF HEAT

ENERGY EFFICIENT & SMART BUILDINGS

ENERGY STORAGE & CCS

TRANSFORMING THE POWER SECTOR

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

DECARBONISATION OF INDUSTRY

GREEN MOBILITY

THE BIG PICTURE

Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress

Tracking Nordic Clean Energy Progress

Progress towards Nordic Carbon Neutrality

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Bo Diczfalusy Senior Adviser, Nordic Energy Research