Project 1.3.1

Natural and Technological

Hazards in Europe

Philipp Schmidt-Thomé

Contents

Summarizing final results of ESPON 1.3.1 ”Hazards”

• Examples of policy recommendations• Planning response towards natural and technological

hazards• Selected hazard maps• Aggregated hazard and risk maps• Climate change affecting natural hazards• European Regions with specific hazard typologies

Summary of selected policy recommendations

I. Guiding principles:

1. Employ risk management as an integral and explicit part of EU cohesion policy. Improve coordination of policy measures at all spatial scales

2. Integration of both substantial goals and procedural rules related to vulnerability reduction and risk mitigation into policies and programmes

Policy recommendations II

II. EU-level instruments

1. Coordination of the use of Structural Funds for risk management, by e.g. using criteria relevant to risk and vulnerability to guide and support funding through the Structural Fund objectives

2. Ensuring the effective implementation of the strategic environmental assessment (SEA) directive; integrating risk mitigation principles for planning into its implementation

Policy recommendations III

III. Meso-level (national, transnational co-operation, Interreg)

Recognition of the upgraded status of risk mitigation in the remodelled cohesion policy for the period 2007-2013, including principles of vulnerability reduction and risk mitigation in the programme guidelines.

Adoption of Strategic Environmental Assessment directive (2001/42/EC) by member states, preferably in a uniform fashion across Europe

Enhancing the use of the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) for integrating land use planning and water resources management in support of risk management (not only water quality) purposes

Planning response, example on risks

• Split up "risk" into the elements: hazard potential, damage potential and coping capacity

• Framework for monitoring not only on risk but also for monitoring the elements of risk

• Within this framework it is possible to monitor the hazards impact and the vulnerability (damage potential and coping capacity) of an area

• Risk monitoring thus has a major role in defining and deciding on actions like mitigation and reaction (preparedness, response, recovery)

Natural hazards

• Avalanches• Drought potential• Earthquakes• Extreme temperatures• Floods• Forest fires• Landslides • Storms • Storm surges • Tsunamis• Volcanic activities

Technological hazards

• Air traffic• Major accident hazards (chemical plants)• Nuclear Power plants• Oil transport, storage and handling

The making of the Forest fires map I

The making of the Forest fires map II

Resulting forest fire hazard map

Landslides

Tsunamis

Chemical production plants

Weighting of hazards – the Delphi method

Aggregated natural hazards

Aggregated technological hazards

Aggregated hazards map

Vulnerability concept

Vulnerability map

Aggregated risk map

Change of dry spell affecting drought potential

Change in precipitation affecting flood potential

Length of dry spell affecting forest fires

Hazard interactions (of highest hazard degrees)

Hazard clusters: flood and landslides

Hazard interactions in Interreg IIIB areas

1.3.1 indicators on NUTS 3 level covering the entire ESPON 27+2 area

• 11 Natural hazard indicators

• 4 Technological hazard indicators

• 3 Aggregated hazard indicators

• 3 Vulnerability indicators

• 3 Risk indicators

• 5 Climate change indicators (not available for

remote areas)

Thank you very much for your attention!

Thanks to the HAZARDS Consortium and to the

ESPON CU for the excellent cooperation!

philipp.schmidt-thome@gtk.fi

www.gtk.fi/projects/espon