Project Cash Flow Estimation

Financial Management

Project Cash Estimation

Significance of Cash Flows and Cash Flow Estimation

The concept of “relevant” versus “irrelevant” cash flows

Points to watch in estimating cash flowsHow to estimate project operating cash

flows?How to estimate project total cash flows?

Cash Flows

To be consistent with wealth maximization principle, an evaluation of a project must be based on cash flows and not on accounting profits

To be able to use NPV technique or any other technique of capital budgeting analysis successfully and accurately, we must have – an unbiased estimate of the expected future cash flows of

the project – including time to completion and estimate initial

investment/cost– extremely important and most difficult task

Projects have failed or succeeded due to incorrect or correct estimates of the cash flows of the project.

If cash flow estimates are incorrect, it doesn’t matter which technique we use, the project is doomed to fail

“Relevant” versus “Irrelevant” Cash Flows

The results of an acceptance of a project is to change the cash flows of a firm.

Cash flows of a firm that change because of the project are called “relevant” cash flows;

Any cash flows that does not change irrespective of the acceptance/rejection of the project is “irrelevant” to decision making and should not be considered.

Points of Consider

Sunk CostsOpportunity CostsProject ExternalitiesChange in Net Working Capital

Sunk Costs

Sunk Costs—A cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered irrespective of the decision to accept or reject the project.

R&D, Market Research, Consultant’s FeesIs it relevant or irrelevant?

Opportunity Costs

Opportunity Costs--The cash flow foregone by using your resources in a particular way.

Resources have multiple usesYou can use them in one way to the exclusion of

other uses and this gives rise to opportunity costsBy using your own building for your business,

you forego the rent that you could have earned by renting it to some one else.

Is it relevant or irrelevant to decision making?

Project Externalities

Project Externalities--the effect of a new project (positive or negative) on an existing project or division of a firm.

For instance, introduction of a new model of a car on other existing models produced by the same firm.

Is it relevant or irrelevant to decision making?

Net Working Capital

Change in Net Working Capital--Net working capital is defined as current assets minus current liabilities.

Investment in working capital is a cash outflow during the year in which investment takes place

Any investment in working capital is a cash inflow during the last year of the project and must be treated accordingly

Estimating Project Cash Flows

Total Cash Flows of a Project in year t, where t ranges from year 0 to year n.= Project Operating Cash Flows for that

particular year – change in Net Working Capital – initial investment

There is no project operating cash flows for year 0

Estimating Project Operating Cash Flows

Cash flows from operations for any year– Estimated Sales Revenue *****– Total Costs *****

– Variable Costs ***– Fixed Costs per year ***– Depreciation ***

Sales Revenue minus Total Costs = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)

– Deduct Taxes from EBIT ***– Net Income ***

Operating Cash Flows = Net Income + Depreciation OR

Operating Cash Flows= EBIT – Taxes + Depreciation