Project ERFEN on El NiñoProject ERFEN on El Niño

Mr. VILLANUEVA Rogelio

International Affairs Director

Peruvian Marine Research Institute

First of all, I would like to express my thanks to the organizers of this SECOND APEC - OMISAR WORKSHOP ON OCEAN MODELS, specially to the State Oceanic Administration of the People’s Republic of China; please accept my gratitude for giving me the opportunity to be here in this wonderful city of Beijing.

My short statement has two main objectives; the first, is to use this important technical scientific Workshop to say a few words about the next Marine Resource Conservation Working Group Meeting. As you may know, during the 12th Meeting of the APEC Marine Resource Conservation Working Group, held in Cairns

Australia, my Institution THE PERUVIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTE, on behalf of Peru, offered to host the 13th

Meeting of the APEC Marine Resource Conservation Working Group, next year.

In accordance with official information provided by the APEC Secretariat, The APEC Senior Officials agreed that the MRC and APEC Fisheries Working Group (FWG) should further pursue efforts to coordinate their activities, in order to avoid duplication of efforts. This statement has, in fact, excluded the possibility of amalgamating MRC and FWG as proposed earlier.

This decision was further endorsed by the APEC Ministers during their meeting in Auckland, last September; ”so in light of the above-mentioned decision”, I am very glad to inform here that we are already starting the preliminary internal arrangements for the 13th MRC, to be held in Peru in 2000.

Of course, I am very proud to be here to invite all of you, representatives of the APEC economies members, to attend that fore coming meeting.

I should mention that; although, the week connecting May and June 2000 has been proposed for the meeting, we have been notified that the date may need to be adjusted a little bit.

The second objective of my statement is to present an special Peruvian effort to monitor and forecast “El Niño” phenomenon, with the financial support of the World Bank. This is a multisectorial Project, which in some way has been made a reality due to the fact that, framed by the CPPS - South Pacific Permanent Commission, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are engaged in a Regional Project named ERFEN (Spanish acronym for “El Niño” phenomenon regional study).

The following constitutes part of my presentation, based on that of Vice-Admiral (r) Luis A. Giampietri (President of the Board of Directors of IMARPE), before the Multisectorial Committee in charge of the Study of “El Niño” Phenomenon - ENFEN, last September.

Luis Giampietri RojasLuis Giampietri Rojas

Viceadmiral (r)Viceadmiral (r)

President of the Executive CouncilPresident of the Executive Council

Instituto del Mar del PeruInstituto del Mar del Peru

President of the Multisectorial Committee in charge of President of the Multisectorial Committee in charge of

the National Study of “El Niño” Phenomenon - ENFENthe National Study of “El Niño” Phenomenon - ENFEN

ENHANCEMENT OF THE CAPABILITY OF ENHANCEMENT OF THE CAPABILITY OF FORECASTING AND EVALUATING “EL NIÑO” FORECASTING AND EVALUATING “EL NIÑO” PHENOMENON TO PREVENT DISASTERS IN PHENOMENON TO PREVENT DISASTERS IN

PERUPERU

Mulisectorial National CommitteeMulisectorial National Committee is conformed by:

Instituto del Mar del Perú - IMARPE (The Peruvian Marine Research Institute)

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología - SENAMHI (National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology)

Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación - DHN (Navy’s Hydrographic and Navigation Office)

WORLD BANK PROJECT WORLD BANK PROJECT - ENFEN- ENFEN

Mulisectorial National Committee - ENFENMulisectorial National Committee - ENFEN

The committee is conformed by:

Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil - INDECI (National Institute of Civil Defense)

Instituto Geofísico del Perú - IGP (Peruvian Geophysic Research Institute)

Instituto Nacional de Recursos Naturales - INRENA (National Natural Resources Institute)

Mulisectorial National Committee - ENFENMulisectorial National Committee - ENFEN

OBJECTIVESOBJECTIVES

The study of “El Niño” phenomenon to understand its origins, its development in a short term basis (three months) and forecast its possible consequences (sea temperature, and rains and droughts in the Continent, mainly).

Coordinate, recommend and advise in relation with the activities linked to the phenomenon, locally (national institutions) and also abroad (ERFEN/CPPS Program).

• Loan agreement with the World Bank• Development of a Project which includes and

harmonized with the requirements of equipment and training of:- IMARPE, SENAMHI, HIDRONAV and IGP

• Agreement of Granting Resources for the Execution of the Project signed by the ENFEN’s Investment Office, ENFEN and the four institutions.

• Weaknesses;• Requirements to enhance the capability of Forecast and Evaluation;

OBJECTIVEOBJECTIVE• Enhance the capability of

forecast and evaluation of "El Niño” recurrent event through the implementation of a modern system of prevention of oceanic-atmospheric disasters.

• ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENTATMOSPHERIC COMPONENT

- Atmospheric Numeric Modeling

- Hydrology Numeric Modeling

• OCEANOGRAPHIC COMPONENTOCEANOGRAPHIC COMPONENT

- Oceanographic Numeric Modeling

• BIOLOGICAL-FISHERY COMPONENTBIOLOGICAL-FISHERY COMPONENT

- Biological Modeling

- Biological-Fishery Studies

METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

ORGANIZATIONAL CHART OF THE PROJECT’s SUB-SYSTEMS

IMARPE

BUOYS

OCEANOGRAPHICOBSERVATIONS

D H N

OCENOAGRAPHICOBSERVATIONS(LEVEL)

METEOROLOGICALSTATIONS

I G P

RADARS(WINDS)

SENAMHI

METEOR. STAT.

HYDROL. STAT.

Radio Wind Sound DIFFUSION

ENFEN

TECHNICAL DIRECTION OF COORDINATION

IMARPE I G P DHN

I G PSENAMHI

SATELLITE

OBSERVATIONSUB-SYSTEM

COMMUNICATION’sSUB-SYSTEM SATELLITE’s

RECEPTIVESTATIONS

DATA DISTRIBUTION

MODELINGSUB-SYSTEM

SENAMHI

• OBSERVATION SUB-SYSTEMOBSERVATION SUB-SYSTEMActivities oriented to the installation, operation and maintenance of new automatic data collection stations.

• COMMUNICATIONS SUB-SYSTEMCOMMUNICATIONS SUB-SYSTEM

Activities related to the transmission, reception and distribution of data observed.

• MANAGEMENT OF DATA SUB-SYSTEMMANAGEMENT OF DATA SUB-SYSTEM

Activities related to the management of the data: acquisition, storage, distribution, processing and analysis.

INFORMATION FLOW AMONG THE INSTITUTIONS WITHIN THE PROJECT

IMARPEIMARPE

IMARPESENAMHI IGPIGPSENAMHI

DHN

DHN LEYEND

BUOYS

STATIONS + RVS

SATELLITERECEPTIVESTATIONS

SATELLITE

INSTITUTIONS

RADAR

OBSERV. SYSTEM

RECEPTIVE STAT.

DATA DISTRIB. STAT.

• NUMERIC MODELING SUB-SYSTEMNUMERIC MODELING SUB-SYSTEM

Activities related to the development, implementation and operation of numeric oceanic, biological, hydro-meteorological and climatic models.

• TRAINING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TRAINING AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE SUB-SYSTEMSSUB-SYSTEMS

Activities oriented to the education and training of professionals and technicians.

• PRODUCTS AND DIFFUSION SUB-SYSTEMSPRODUCTS AND DIFFUSION SUB-SYSTEMS

Activities oriented to the elaboration of products that contribute to the process of prevention of disasters.

FINALITYFINALITY

Prevention and mitigation of material and economic damages, reduction of human losses and take advantage of the benefits which come along with the recurrent event “El Niño“.

IMARPE’s PRODUCTS

Public Service1. Monthly Oceanographic bulleting.2. Weekly bulleting informing about

oceanographic conditions and their forecasts.3. Weekly report of the surface temperature of

the sea at the Peruvian coast.4. Daily bulleting of the Peruvian sea useful for

the fishery activity.5. Weekly forecast of the coastal blooms.

PROJECT’s PRODUCTS

Studies

1. Report of the status of the fishery resources in the Peruvian sea.

2. Report about the evolution of the environmental conditions, evidencing “El Niño”.

3. Report of fish captive studies. 4. Report about the behavior of fishes living in

floating rafts.5. Report on the biological indicators of

oceanographic changes.

..................

SENAMHI’s PRODUCTS

Public Service1. Meteorologic Forecast, with a projection of 72

hours (daily);2. Synoptic Observance of South America

(monthly);3. Bulleting “El Niño” and “Niña”;4. Bulletins about the behavior of rains; 5. Climatic Observance of Peru (monthly); 6. Monitoring and Evaluating ENSO (monthly);7. Seasonal Forecasts;8. Climatic Forecasts for Lima;9. Bulleting “The Weather for Tourists” (in

English and Spanish - daily).

Public Service

10. Bulleting about iciness;11. Impact of the Meteorological Conditions in

Agriculture (daily);12. Agro-climatic bulleting of Peer;13. Hydrologic Forecast;14. Hydrologic Observance by Importance of

Basins.

Studies

1. Study of the atmospheric mechanisms of the Teleconnection during “El Niño event (strong and extreme).

2. Study about the influence of the Andes in the atmospheric circulation at meso and macroscale.

3. Study of the local circulation in zones of importance in events “El Niño/La Niña” (strong and extreme).

4. Evaluation of numeric modeling, with the objective of applying them in geographic specific zones.

5. Studies of the atmospheric behavior during “El Niño/La Niña events in relevant agriculture basins.

Studies

6. Study of the atmospheric mechanism for the occurrence of iciness in Peru.

7. Evaluation of the performance of models for the Prediction of summers in Peru.

8. Study about the maximum flows in the central-coast river of Peru.

9. Hydro balance of the Peruvian Amazonian Basin during “El Niño”1997-1998

10.Mathematic model of the basin of Chillón River.11.Simulation of the volume of the Rímac River.12.Study of storms in the Rímac River basin: area,

intensity and duration.

IGP’s PRODUCTS

Studies1. Methods of assimilation of the data to the wind

profiles in regional models. 2. Daily forecast of the weather; even, three days

in advance. 3. Daily follow-up of the weather conditions. 4. Climatic forecasts, with some months of

anticipation.5. Monthly follow-up of the weather conditions

and El Niño”.6. Monthly weather and climatic bulletins.

Studies

7. Improvement of weather forecasts, increasing the resolution of models MM5, using faster workstations.

8. Study of the behavior of the winds in the atmosphere.

9. Study of the behavior of the oceanic currents.10.Evaluation of numeric models, for the climatic

and weather forecasts and their implementation in Peru.

11.Statistical seasonal forecasts of rains in the northern coast, during “El Niño”strong events.

DHN’s PRODUCTSPublic Service1. Daily bulleting of the weather conditions in the

Peruvian sea. 2. Daily forecasts of wave status, with a

projection from three to four days. 3. Monthly bulletins of the ocean-atmosphere

conditions in the Peruvian coast. 4. Weekly reports of the surface temperature of

the sea, salinity and sea level of the coastal stations.

5. Weekly bulletins about wave conditions in the Peruvian coast.

Study1. Quarterly evaluation of the ocean-atmosphere

conditions in the coast and Peruvian sea.

ENFEN COMMITTEE’s PRODUCTS

1. Reports preventing the possible occurrence of “El Niño” event, with permanent and close coordination with the Fishery Ministry and Ministry of the Presidency.

IMARPE’s RESPONSIBILITY

1. Perform studies about oceanic and biological modeling to carried out a forecast of the oceanographic conditions inside the Peruvian sea and their relation with the distribution of the fishery resources; as well as, studies to do biological researches in order to find indicators of water volume to identify oceanographic anomalies and of the biological resources, as preventers of “El Niño” phenomenon.

INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSIBILITYINSTITUTIONAL RESPONSIBILITY

Is committed to:

The implementation of a system of a continued oceanic observers, in real time, through research cruisers and other information obtained from the study of the sea.

• To carried out diagnostics and forecasts of daily oceanic and climatic conditions of the Peruvian sea.

• To do a regional numeric modeling of coastal blooms and the oceanic dynamic of the Peruvian sea.

• To perform studies of the marine resources at the Peruvian sea, with the objective to determine indicators of the presence of “El Niño” Phenomenon.

• Establish working groups for the study of the physical processes in the ocean and the atmosphere.

• Form working groups, upon the dynamic of the resource and the environment.

SENAMHI’s RESPONSIBILITY

To improve the permanent monitoring, in space and time, of the meteorological and hydrological conditions (at national level), with the objective to benefit public service. To develop researches, with automatic techniques, for climate and weather forecasting; using, interalia, meteorological prediction models, climatic and hydrologic and applications in different activities which contribute with the social-economic development of the Country.

SENAMHI’s RESPONSIBILITY

• Install, operate and maintain the net of hydrometeorologic and automatic stations.

• Operate numeric models, atmospheric and hydrologics.

• Reception and distribution of hydrometeorologic data toward the participant institutions of the Project.

• Development of numeric modeling courses (basic and advanced courses) in Peru, with national and international cooperation.

SENAMHI’s RESPONSIBILITY

• Coordinate the training, on modeling and atmospheric observing (in a foreign institution) with international cooperation.

• Prepare hydrometeorological products, of researches, as well as of public service.

• Constitute working groups to investigate the physical processes in the ocean and the atmosphere.

IGP’s RESPONSIBILITY

• Improve weather forecasting, increasing the resolution of MM5 model and using a faster workstation.

• Develop and implement a regional numeric model for climatic forecast.

• Establish working groups to investigate the physical processes in the ocean and the atmosphere. Data provided by the oceanic and continental net will be complemented with the information of a radar of the limited shallow installed together with the wind profile of the Universidad de Piura, ........

IGP’s RESPONSIBILITY

and a radar for the measurement of the oceanic currents and a wind profile installed in an adequate place of the Peruvian coast.

• Develop investigations in models of numeric and statistics climate forecasts, model of the weather and a model of the ocean through Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima.

DHN’s RESPONSIBILITY• Improve the observance continued system, in

real time, of the main processes that modeled the marine dynamic and interaction with the ocean-atmosphere, improving the diagnostic and forecast of the climatic and oceanic conditions.

• Operate and maintain the automatic ocean-meteorological buoys net, in charge of DHN.

• Operate and maintain the net of automatic ocean-meteorological stations, in charge of DHN.

• Establish an oceanic observance continued system, in real time.

DHN’s RESPONSIBILITY

• Perform the diagnostic and forecast of the oceanic and climatic conditions of irregular waves, on a daily basis.

• Make regional numeric modeling of prediction of wave and the conceptual model of the environmental dynamic of the coast.

• Establish working groups for the investigation of the physical processes in the ocean.

BUDGETBUDGET $

World Bank 5’629,340.00Contribution four institutions 3’958,373.00(National counter-part)TOTAL 9’587,713.00

DISTRIBUTED AS FOLLOWS:

$IMARPE 2,656,456.00SENAMHI 2,333,084.00IGP 533,050.00DHN 106,750.00TOTAL 5,629,340.00

$Equipment 5,144,340.00Training 375,000.00Technical assistance 110,000.00TOTAL 5,629,340.00

THE INVESTMENT FOR EXTERNAL DEBT IS EXPRESSED IN U.S. DOLLARS

PROJECTION AT A LOCAL PROJECTION AT A LOCAL UNIVERSITARY LEVELUNIVERSITARY LEVEL

It is required that the Peruvian university participates enhancing the areas of development of Climatic Modules and Locations, in permanent exchange of information among the Institutions of ENFEN.

PROJECTION AT A LOCAL PROJECTION AT A LOCAL UNIVERSITARY LEVELUNIVERSITARY LEVEL

The development of the Project means the beginning, by Peru, of what will be in the future the implementation of the project to enhance the regional capability of observance, diagnostic and prediction of the climatic variability at diverse scales, temporal spaces, associated with processes of interaction ocean-atmosphere-earth in the countries of the Southeast Pacific and adjacent ocean, with special emphasis in the cycle “El Niño”/ “La Niña” southern oscillation.