PROJECT PROPOSALPREDICTION FOR WHETHER BALLOT MEASURES GET APPROVED

BASED ON THE GLOBAL MARKET

TOPIC

-VOTING IS A PRIVILEDGE THAT WE ALL HAVE.-MONEY IS A KEY COMPONENT THAT HELPS DICTATE OUR LIVES.

QUESTION: HOW DOES A CHANGE IN THE ECONOMY AFFECT ELECTION BALLOTS?

IDEA:

• TIME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT COMPONENT TO THIS QUESTION.

• USING A CERTAIN TIME FRAME (EX. 2007 TO 2011), WE WANT TO ANALYZE HOW BALLOT SUCCESS RATE CHANGES. THE YEARS 2007 TO 2011 IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THAT IS THE “TIMEFRAME” KNOWN AS “THE GREAT RECESSION”

• WE WANT TO CORRELATE HOW THE MARKET INFLUENCES THE WAY PEOPLE VOTE.

• WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A BOND, MEASURES, STATUTES, ETC WILL GET APPROVED IN THIS TIME FRAME?

KEYS TO MEASURE SUCCESS:

• USING TEXT MINING TO IDENTIFY KEY WORDS AND VALUES THAT CAN POTENTIALLY SWAY A VOTE.

• YEAR OVER YEAR SUCCESSRATE OF DIFFERENT BALLOT MEASURES

• KEY TIME FRAME MEASUREMENTS:

• THE GREAT RECESSION

• “DOT COM” CRASH

• BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER A DISASTEROUS MARKET TIMEFRAME

DATA

• KEY COMPONENTS:

• CSV OF BALLOT MEASURES (PASS/FAIL) FROM CSUS INSTUTITE OF SOCIAL RESEARCH

• DATA STRETCHES BACK TO NOV 1995

• DATA IS BROKEN DOWN INTO DIMENSIONS THAT WE WILL USE TO ANSWER OUR QUESTION

• STAR SCHEMA MODEL WILL BE USED:

• YEAR (TIME) DIMENSION

• COUNTY DIMENSION

• INSURANCE DIMENSION

• BOND DIMENSION

• STATUTE DIMENSION

• FACT TABLE