Project:Vaccination Debate

Project: Your group will need to find an example of a vaccine that is currently available and explore the controversy surrounding this vaccine. You will then use that information to create a media piece to convince the public either to use or avoid the vaccine that your group has chosen to study.

Examples:• Create a flyer, video, or audio podcast convincing the public

why doctors require or recommend you get the vaccine and include some data comparing its efficacy to its side effects.

• Create a flyer, video, or audio podcast demonstrating why people refuse the vaccine, and whether or not there is scientific justification behind their arguments.

Why is there a debate?

• A virus that infects the respiratory system• Symptoms: fever, runny nose, cough, blotchy rash• More serious complications include ear infection,

diarrhea, pneumonia, encephalitis, and miscarriage• 1/1000 infected children will die• 200,000 deaths/year world wide• First described in 9th century AD• Has been endemic world wide for centuries

Did Vaccination Really Cause the Decline of Measles?

Prior to vaccine development, most people in endemic areas were infected by the age of 15Many documented outbreaks in naïve populations over past 500 years, some with up to 50% mortality

http://www.cdc.gov/measles/about/overview.htm

Post-Class Assessment

• You’ve had a chance to read the pre-class assignment, today in class we are going to do the assessment together, and then you can turn in your answers at the end of class today.

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Pre-Class Question #1-3:Anti-Vac Groups Claim:

• Measles was already declining when the vaccine was developed, and vaccination had no impact

Year # Cases1958 7630941977 573451978 268711979 135971980 135061981 31241982 17141983 14971984 25871985 28221986 62731987 36551988 34111989 178501990 277861991 96431992 22371993 3121994 9631995 3091996 5081997 <150

The Centers for Disease Control Says:• Measles was a constant problem before the

vaccine became available, and declined sharply afterward. (Questions 4-6)

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr (Reported cases)http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/6mishome.htm#Diseaseshadalready (Graph)

What’s the Difference?

• Anti-Vac Groups • CDC, WHO

Question #6: change to infection rate. Death rates were declining for all diseases due to advances in medicine, hygiene and nutrition. Measles cases were variable but persistent despite those improvements. Only after widespread vaccination did the number of measles cases decline permanently.

What’s the Difference?

• Anti-Vac Groups • CDC, WHO

SCALE- Over a longer time period, the change in death rate appears more dramatic. Looking at a shorter time period (after modern advancements in health) the impact of vaccination is clear.

Bloch, et al. Health impact of measles vaccination in the United States. 1985. Pediatrics 76(4): 524-532.

More data from the CDC

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr (Reported cases)http://datafinder.worldbank.org/node/547/chart (Vaccination rates)

Did Vaccination Really Cause the Decline of Measles?

YES!

Pre-Class Question #7:Autism and MMR

• Autism rates in the 1980s (when children received vaccinations against only 7 diseases) were about 0.47 per 1,000 children. Now children regularly receive vaccinations against 14 diseases, and the rate of autism has soared to 6.7 per 1,000 children.

1980s 1996 20021998

Pre-Class Question #7:Autism and MMR

• The CDC maintains statistics on disease prevalence, including autism rates. Jacquelyn Bertrand and colleagues report the following statistics for autism prevalence in 1998 along with later studies. Which of the last three studies had the least number of children with autism?

1984-1988 = 184,822 X 4/1000 = 739

Pre-Class Question #8-9:Autism and MMR

• Confidence Intervals: when we graph the mean, error bars are used to represent the overall distribution of the data and to describe researchers’ confidence that their data represents a true population value. The smaller the sample size, the larger the error bars, the larger the confidence interval (Brick Township).

1980s 1996 20021998

Pre-Class Question #10:Autism and MMR

Despite overwhelming evidence and study showing no link between vaccinations and autism, about 25% of Americans still believe there is a risk. Parents increasingly resist vaccination, and the result in 2008 was the largest U.S. outbreak of measles since 2000 when the native disease was declared to be eliminated.

Correlation and Causation• Google correlate: allows you to upload data on

actual events, and determine search terms typed into Google that correlate with those numbers over time. Google's stock price, correlated strongest with web search activity for "solitaire network", a site for those looking to play solo card games online:

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Correlation and Causation

• List some reasons why we can’t infer that just because two things are correlated, they are not necessarily causing each other?

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