PROJECTIONS OF DEMENTIA PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE IN ... · Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Qld are shown in Chart 1.1 and Chart 1.2. Chart 1.1: Prevalence of dementia

PROJECTIONS OF DEMENTIA PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE IN QUEENSLAND2011-2050

SEPTEMBER 2011

ALZHEIMER’S AUSTRALIA QLD

Glossary iExecutive Summary i1 Background 12 Modelling metholodgy 13.1 Detailed modelling results 13.2 Dementia prevalence and incidence by Federal Electoral Divisions 13.3 Dementia prevalence and incidence by State Electoral Districts 13.4 Dementia Prevalence and incidence by Health Service Districts 14.1 Mapping of dementia prevalence 14.2 Federal Electoral Divisions 14.3 State Electoral Districts 14.4 Health Service Districts 1Appendix A 1References 1Limitation of our work 1

CHARTSChart 1.1 : Prevalence of dementia in Qld iChart 1.2 : Incidence of dementia in Qld iChart 2.1 : Estimated dementia prevalence rates in Qld 2011 1Chart 2.2 : Estimated age structure of the Qld population, age groups by percentage portion of total population, 2011 and 2050 1Chart 3.1 : Dementia prevalence in Qld 1Chart 3.2 : Dementia prevalence in 2011, by top 10 HSDs 1Chart 3.3 : Dementia prevalence in 2030, by top 10 HSDs 1Chart 3.4 : Dementia prevalence in 2050, by top 10 HSDs 1

TABLESTable 2.2 : Relative risk of mortality associated with dementia 1Table 3.2 : Percentage change in dementia prevalence and Queensland population per decade 1Table 3.3 : Dementia prevalence in 2011, by top ten FEDs 1Table 3.4 : Dementia prevalence in 2030, by top ten FEDs 1Table 3.5 : Dementia prevalence in 2050, by top ten FEDs 1Table 3.6 : Dementia Prevalence in Federal Electoral Divisions 1Table 3.7 : Dementia Incidence in Federal Electoral Divisions 1Table 3.8 : Dementia prevalence in 2011, by top ten SEDs 1Table 3.9 : Dementia prevalence in 2030, by top ten SEDs 1Table 3.10 : Dementia prevalence in 2050, by top ten SEDs 1Table 3.11 : Dementia Prevalence in State Electoral Districts 1Table 3.12 : Dementia Incidence in State Electoral Districts 1Table 3.13 : Dementia Prevalence in Health Service Districts 1Table 3.14 : Dementia Incidence in Health Districts 1Table 4.1 : Federal Electoral Divisions 1Table 4.2 : State Electoral Districts 1Table 4.3 : Health Service Districts

FIGURESFigure 2.1 : Simple disease model used to estimate dementia incidence 1Figure 4.1 : Dementia prevalence in Federal Electoral Divisions 2011 1Figure 4.2 : Dementia prevalence in Federal Electoral Divisions 2030 1Figure 4.3 : Dementia prevalence in Federal Electoral Divisions 2050 1Figure 4.4 : Dementia prevalence in State Electoral Districts 2011 1Figure 4.5 : Dementia prevalence in State Electoral Districts 2030 1Figure 4.6 : Dementia prevalence in State Electoral Districts 2050 1Figure 4.7 : Dementia prevalence in Health Service Districts 2011 1Figure 4.8 : Dementia prevalence in Health Service Districts 2030 1Figure 4.9 : Dementia prevalence in Health Service Districts 2050 1

C0NTENTS

Projections of dementia prevalence and indecision in Queensland 2011 - 2050

Deloitte Access Economics | Commercial-in-Confidence

Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Queensland 2011 – 2050

Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/au/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. © 2011 Deloitte Access Economics Pty Ltd

GLOSSARY DOHA Department of Health and Ageing

FED Federal Electoral Division

HSD Health Service District

QLD Queensland

SED State Electoral District

SLA Statistical Local Area




i Deloitte Access Economics Commercial-‐in-‐confidence

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Deloitte Access Economics was commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia (Qld) to provide the latest estimates and projections of prevalence for people with dementia in Australia. The report is set out as follows: • Chapter 1 presents the background to dementia estimation in relation to

Queensland (Qld). • Chapter 2 presents the modelling methodology for dementia prevalence and

incidence. • Chapter 3 presents dementia prevalence and incidence projections, from 2011

to 2050, for Queensland, by Federal Electoral Division (FED), State Electoral District (SED) and Health Service District (HSD).

• Chapter 4 presents the mapping of dementia prevalence by FED, SED and HSD by 2011, 2030 and 2050.

Summary of results

It is estimated that in 2011 around 48,674 people will have dementia in Qld. If this estimate is projected to 2050 215,272 people will have dementia. This represents a 342% increase in the prevalence of dementia between 2011 and 2050. New cases of dementia are expected to increase from 18,691 in 2011 to 109,817 in 2050. This represents a 488% increase in the incidence of dementia between 2011 and 2050. Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Qld are shown in Chart 1.1 and Chart 1.2.

Chart 1.1: Prevalence of dementia in Qld

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Males Females Persons

Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.




ii Deloitte Access Economics Commercial-‐in-‐confidence

Chart 1.2: Incidence of dementia in Qld

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Males Females Persons


The prevalence and incidence of dementia across Qld is not uniform and tends to be concentrated where there is the greatest ageing population and by how each region was defined. For the purpose of this report dementia prevalence and incidence have been separated into differing geographical jurisdictions, Federal Electoral Divisions (FEDs), State Electoral Districts (SEDs) and Health Service Districts (HSDs) to better enable understanding of how dementia will affect each area. In 2011 dementia prevalence is greatest in Moncrieff (FED), Surfers Paradise (SED) and Metro South (HSD), but by 2050 dementia prevalence is greatest in Hinkler (FED), Hervey Bay (SED) and Metro South (HSD). Further information and mapping of dementia prevalence by geographical jurisdiction is provided in the respective chapters of this report.

Deloitte Access Economics




1 Deloitte Access Economics

Commercial-‐in-‐confidence

1 BACKGROUND Deloitte Access Economics has worked in the past with Alzheimer’s Australia (Qld), as well as with Alzheimer’s Australia, in the projection of incidence and prevalence of dementia up to 2050. The prevalence of dementia is expected to increase from 266,574 Australians in 2011 to 942,624 by 2050 (Deloitte Access Economics 2011). Deficits in aged care supply will first start to emerge in 2012 as demand outstrips current planned growth in supply under the current policies (Access Economics 2011). This growth will primarily be driven by increased population numbers and demographic ageing.

For Queensland, when comparing the 2007 report with the 2004 results, Access Economics found a high sensitivity of projections to relatively minor parameter changes. This indicated that any delay in the onset of dementia (i.e. from results of dementia research) would have a dramatic impact on the future number of cases and on the real costs of dementia in Queensland (Access Economics 2007). Our modelling also found that on the basis of current policy settings, there will be shortages in the supply of care for people with dementia (Access Economics 2009). Policy implications are profound for Queensland, as the State will experience a fivefold increase of dementia between 2000 and 2050 -‐ considerably faster growth than Australia as a whole (Access Economics 2007). This will accelerate post 2030 due to the baby boomer generation aging (Access Economics 2011).

The year 2010 was significant in Queensland’s demographic ageing. It represents the first year that the baby boomers start turning 65 years of age. The baby boomer bulge is on the cusp of working its way through those age brackets that are at greater risk of dementia. This is the main driving factor in the expected increase in dementia prevalence and incidence. However, there will be an uneven ageing distribution across regions within Queensland, with younger people generally located in Brisbane and other metropolitan regions and older people located outside these areas. Older adults also represent a growing proportion of the population outside the Brisbane metro region.

Dementia remains a growing concern for health and aged care service provision. Combined with Australia’s and Queensland’s ageing populations, modifiable dementia risk factors continue to increase in Australia. For example, diabetes mellitus is known to increase the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and vascular dementia. Obesity is a risk factor for vascular dementia through its effect on coronary heart disease and stroke. Physical inactivity has also been linked to an increase in dementia through its impact on cardiovascular disease, stroke, and Type 2 diabetes (Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) 2006, Dementia Collaborative Research Centre 2007). The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has noted significant increases in these risk factors over the past decade, which are likely to continue into the near future (AIHW 2008).

This report identifies the key areas in Queensland that are expected to experience the greatest increase in dementia cases. This research can then be used to assist government agencies in planning the provision of future dementia services, with the aim of improving the quality of life for all people in Queensland living with dementia, including their families and carers.






2 MODELLING METHODOLOGY Age and gender specific prevalence rates were derived from a recent study for Alzheimer’s Australia (Deloitte Access Economics 2011). The methodology used therein to estimate and project dementia prevalence and incidence in Queensland was based on population growth and demographic ageing assuming dementia prevalence rates remain constant throughout the projection period. It was noted in Deloitte Access Economics (2011) that no significant studies warranting a change in dementia prevalence rates have been undertaken since the report by Access Economics (2009).In that study, dementia prevalence rates were estimated by age and gender using a combination of published international epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. The studies used for each age bracket are outlined below. • Age brackets 0 to 59 years: a weighted average for the entire population

was calculated using five year age bracket prevalence rates derived from Harvey et al (2003) and Australian population estimates.

• Age brackets between 60 and 79 years: previous prevalence rates used in Access Economics (2005, 2006) were used.

• Age brackets between 80 and 89 years: a weighted average of prevalence rates found in Access Economics (2005, 2006) and Lucca et al (2009) were used, with the former receiving three times as much weight as the latter.

• Age brackets 90 years and above: a weighted average of prevalence rates was calculated using rates found in Access Economics (2005, 2006), Lucca et al (2009), and Corrada et al (2008). An average prevalence rate was calculated using the latter two studies and this average was given an equal weighting with the prevalence rates from Access Economics (2005, 2006).

Estimated prevalence rates are shown in Chart 2.3. Dementia prevalence rates follow an exponential growth rate with age. Dementia prevalence rates are relatively low until the age of 70 years and over, then start to increase rapidly, indicating the increased risk of developing dementia due to age. For example in 2011 for Qld, prevalence rates for males and females aged 70-74 years are around 3.6% and 3.4% respectively. This then increases to 21.6% and 24.8% for those aged 85-89. Finally, over a third (39.2%) of men and almost a half (49.3%) of women over the age of 95 years will have dementia.






Chart 2.3: Estimated dementia prevalence rates in Qld 2011

05101520253035404550

<60 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+

Males Females


The underlying population data used to calculate the number of people with dementia in Australia in 2011 to 2050 was estimated using the AE-DEM model, which is an in-house demographic model based on the 2006 national census undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Building up from the demographic ‘first principles’ of births, deaths, migration and household formation, the model projects population by age and gender for each State and Territory.

The number of incident cases in Qld was calculated in previous Access Economics reports by using a simple disease model (DISMOD II) similar to that used by the World Health Organization (Figure 2.1).

Figure 2.1: Simple disease model used to estimate dementia incidence

!

Susceptibles

Cases

Deaths from general mortality

Cause-specific deaths

i r

m

f

m

Susceptibles

Cases

Deaths from general mortality

Cause-specific deaths

i r

m

f

m






where: i -‐ incidence rate (new cases of dementia); r -‐ remission rate (which equals zero is this case); m -‐ natural mortality rate in the population; f -‐ case fatality rate, or mortality as a direct result of dementia; cases -‐ existing people with dementia; and susceptible -‐ people in the population that do not have dementia. Source: Barendregt (2004).

The natural mortality rates used in the model were taken from the Access Economics in-house demographic model (AE-Dem). The number of people susceptible to dementia was calculated as the current population less prevalent cases (by age group and gender), while case fatality rates were calculated from the relative risk of mortality for people with dementia (Table 2.1).

Table 2.1: Relative risk of mortality associated with dementia

Males Females

0-59 158.9 309.2 60-64 9.8 25.5 65-69 3.6 12.0 70-74 6.2 10.7 75-79 5.8 8.9 80-84 3.8 5.3 85-89 2.6 2.9 90-94 2.2 2.2

95+ 2.0 1.7

Source: Access Economics (from modelling for the evaluation of the National Dementia Priority Initiative and DISMOD II).

The incidence rate of dementia from 2011 to 2050 was based on the base case incidence rates for Queensland calculated in the previous Access Economics report for Alzheimer’s Australia (Access Economics 2009).

The estimated and projected age distributions of males and females in 2011 and 2050 are presented in Chart 2.4 (next page). It shows that the proportion of people greater than 65 years and older is expected to increase from 13% to 20% between 2011 and 2050. The exponential increase in prevalence rates means that as people start to live longer and the Queensland population becomes older, dementia prevalence and incidence is also expected to increase exponentially.

Three concordances were used to split prevalence and incidence by FEDs, SEDs and HSDs. For FEDs a concordance was supplied by the Commonwealth Parliamentary Library. For SEDs a concordance was supplied by Queensland Treasury. For HSDs a concordance was supplied by Queensland Health.






Chart 2.4: Estimated age structure of the Qld population, age groups by percentage portion of total population, 2011 and 2050

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-100100+

!"##

Female Male

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-100100+

Female Male







3 DETAILED MODELLING RESULTS Our prevalence estimate shows that there are around 48,674 people with dementia in Qld in 2011. If this estimate is projected to 2050, the number of cases of dementia will approach 215,272 people. This represents an increase of around 342% (Chart 3.5 ). These prevalence estimates for Queensland are different than those of a previous study (Access Economics 2007) for two reasons. Firstly, as is the case in other reports done by Access Economics since 2009, this report takes into account attributable factors that increase prevalence of dementia (i.e. physical inactivity). Secondly demographic projections change each year. This factor is clearly shown in comparing the estimates of the Access Economics (2009) report and the subsequent reports Access Economics (2010) and Deloitte Access Economics (2011) (all of which include Queensland projections ). This was due to the ABS making changes to population parameters, revising mortality upwards and lowering annual migration figures, which correspondingly decreased dementia projections. Even when the attributable factors were taken out of the modelling so that it could be compared directly with the 2007 report (Access Economics 2007), it was found that dementia prevalence has decreased due to demographic changes.

Chart 3.5: Dementia prevalence in Qld

020406080100120140160180200220

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050


For each decade between 2011 and 2050, the prevalence of dementia is expected to increase at a faster rate than population growth in Qld. The most rapid growth in dementia prevalence is expected during the current decade (58%) and the following decade (56%), see Table 3.2.






Table 3.2: Percentage change in dementia prevalence and Queensland population per decade

2010-20 2020-30 2030-2040 2040-2050 Dementia prevalence 58% 56% 45% 30% Qld population 21% 20% 16% 14%


A breakdown of dementia prevalence and incidence projections between 2011 and 2050 by FED, SED and HSD is presented in Section 3.2, Section 3.3 and Section 3.4 respectively. Mapping of dementia prevalence projections in 2011, 2030 and 2050 by FED, SED, and HSD is presented in Section 4.1, Section 4.2 and Section 4.3 respectively.

3.2 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE BY FEDERAL ELECTORAL DIVISIONS

The prevalence and incidence of dementia is expected to grow substantially throughout each Federal Electoral Division (FED). In 2011, Moncrieff is estimated to have around 2,478 people with dementia, ranking first in terms of dementia prevalence, while Rankin is estimated to have the lowest estimated number of people with dementia, with around 963 cases. In 2050, it is expected that Hinkler will have the highest number of people with dementia with around 12,023 cases, while Griffith will have the least number of people with dementia with around 4,011 cases. The average growth in prevalence, across all SEDs between 2011 and 2050, is estimated at around 348%, with the most rapid growth expected in Wright, at almost 525%, with Lilley experiencing the least growth, at around 152% (which is still more than doubling). Table 3.3 to Table 3.5 show dementia prevalence by the top 10 FEDs in 2010, 2030 and 2050 respectively. Detailed dementia prevalence and incidence projections can be found in Table 3.6 and Table 3.7.

Table 3.3: Dementia prevalence in 2011, by top ten FEDs

Rank FED Dementia Prevalence 1 Moncrieff 2,478 2 Hinkler 2,317 3 Fisher 2,107 4 Lilley 2,066 5 Fairfax 2,051 6 McPherson 2,040 7 Wide Bay 2,004 8 Groom 1,876 9 Maranoa 1,868 10 Petrie 1,828 Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.







Rank FED Dementia Prevalence 1 Hinkler 6,138 2 Fisher 5,855 3 Fairfax 5,805 4 Moncrieff 5,567 5 Petrie 4,673 6 Wide Bay 4,617 7 McPherson 4,526 8 Longman 4,470 9 Bowman 4,323 10 Fadden 4,233 Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.


Rank FED Dementia Prevalence 1 Hinkler 12,023 2 Fairfax 11,912 3 Fisher 11,633 4 Moncrieff 10,783 5 Petrie 8,850 6 Longman 8,586 7 Wide Bay 8,571 8 McPherson 8,187 9 Bowman 8,105 10 Wright 7,926 Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.




11

Table 3.6: Dementia Prevalence in Federal Electoral Divisions

Division Gender 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 change

Blair Male 576 610 646 681 721 769 821 869 919 975 1,677 2,474 3,259 465%

Female 792 821 854 895 938 981 1,031 1,084 1,142 1,208 2,083 3,223 4,363 451%

Persons 1,368 1,432 1,500 1,576 1,660 1,750 1,852 1,953 2,061 2,182 3,760 5,697 7,622 457%

Bonner Male 642 668 695 723 753 784 820 845 880 914 1,302 1,749 2,181 240%

Female 1,046 1,068 1,099 1,131 1,160 1,190 1,214 1,243 1,279 1,321 1,819 2,562 3,228 209%

Persons 1,688 1,737 1,794 1,854 1,913 1,974 2,034 2,088 2,159 2,236 3,121 4,310 5,409 221%

Bowman Male 739 788 836 881 933 987 1,043 1,100 1,151 1,212 1,884 2,657 3,407 361%

Female 1,066 1,123 1,180 1,236 1,292 1,350 1,410 1,467 1,528 1,588 2,439 3,602 4,698 341%

Persons 1,805 1,911 2,016 2,117 2,225 2,337 2,453 2,567 2,680 2,800 4,323 6,259 8,105 349%

Brisbane Male 481 493 502 514 530 548 566 586 608 629 939 1,284 1,621 237%

Female 907 916 923 934 951 963 974 990 1,014 1,033 1,449 2,042 2,552 181%

Persons 1,388 1,409 1,425 1,448 1,481 1,511 1,540 1,576 1,622 1,662 2,388 3,326 4,173 201%

Capricornia Male 633 662 694 730 765 803 841 880 923 969 1,474 2,033 2,615 313%

Female 872 901 928 960 997 1,032 1,072 1,113 1,154 1,206 1,841 2,661 3,467 298%

Persons 1,505 1,563 1,622 1,690 1,762 1,836 1,913 1,993 2,077 2,175 3,315 4,695 6,081 304%

Dawson Male 641 678 712 749 788 829 876 921 966 1,013 1,604 2,291 2,963 363%

Female 871 908 947 986 1,038 1,089 1,135 1,187 1,238 1,301 2,040 2,985 3,892 347%

Persons 1,512 1,587 1,659 1,735 1,825 1,918 2,011 2,108 2,204 2,313 3,644 5,276 6,855 354%

Dickson Male 414 445 477 508 540 576 614 655 696 741 1,276 1,826 2,364 471%

Female 560 596 634 671 716 759 799 850 898 951 1,651 2,494 3,274 485%

Persons 974 1,041 1,110 1,179 1,256 1,334 1,413 1,505 1,595 1,693 2,927 4,320 5,638 479%

Fadden Male 746 789 829 870 918 971 1,026 1,077 1,128 1,184 1,906 2,720 3,503 370%

Female 940 992 1,047 1,106 1,162 1,226 1,286 1,347 1,412 1,480 2,327 3,410 4,385 367%

Persons 1,686 1,781 1,876 1,976 2,080 2,197 2,312 2,424 2,540 2,664 4,233 6,130 7,888 368%




12

Fairfax Male 857 916 973 1,037 1,106 1,177 1,253 1,327 1,405 1,493 2,509 3,749 5,064 491%

Female 1,194 1,271 1,350 1,429 1,512 1,597 1,694 1,788 1,883 1,988 3,297 5,049 6,848 474%

Persons 2,051 2,187 2,323 2,466 2,617 2,774 2,946 3,115 3,288 3,481 5,805 8,798 11,912 481%

Fisher Male 898 961 1,023 1,089 1,160 1,237 1,313 1,391 1,471 1,555 2,544 3,745 4,978 454%

Female 1,209 1,288 1,372 1,455 1,548 1,640 1,734 1,824 1,921 2,033 3,312 4,999 6,655 451%

Persons 2,107 2,248 2,395 2,544 2,708 2,878 3,047 3,215 3,392 3,588 5,855 8,744 11,633 452%

Flynn Male 562 587 617 644 675 705 740 777 810 848 1,323 1,847 2,355 319%

Female 649 687 721 756 797 839 883 924 961 1,007 1,616 2,379 3,078 374%

Persons 1,211 1,274 1,339 1,400 1,472 1,543 1,623 1,702 1,771 1,855 2,939 4,225 5,433 349%

Forde Male 489 525 560 600 641 684 730 778 829 881 1,515 2,131 2,718 456%

Female 655 705 755 805 861 918 978 1,038 1,100 1,165 2,018 3,033 3,923 499%

Persons 1,143 1,230 1,315 1,405 1,502 1,602 1,709 1,816 1,929 2,046 3,532 5,164 6,640 481%

Griffith Male 533 546 556 569 585 601 618 629 646 665 953 1,297 1,638 207%

Female 936 943 942 943 951 968 979 987 998 1,018 1,375 1,916 2,374 154%

Persons 1,469 1,489 1,498 1,512 1,536 1,569 1,596 1,616 1,644 1,682 2,328 3,213 4,011 173%

Groom Male 734 776 817 859 908 957 1,010 1,055 1,104 1,154 1,794 2,544 3,318 352%

Female 1,142 1,182 1,227 1,277 1,335 1,391 1,450 1,503 1,565 1,628 2,394 3,446 4,433 288%

Persons 1,876 1,958 2,044 2,136 2,243 2,348 2,459 2,558 2,669 2,783 4,188 5,990 7,751 313%

Herbert Male 529 555 581 608 641 674 710 743 779 820 1,337 1,866 2,374 349%

Female 761 798 838 879 922 964 1,017 1,062 1,108 1,160 1,847 2,705 3,476 357%

Persons 1,290 1,353 1,419 1,487 1,563 1,637 1,727 1,805 1,887 1,980 3,184 4,571 5,850 353%

Hinkler Male 1,010 1,073 1,138 1,207 1,280 1,355 1,433 1,512 1,589 1,675 2,667 3,851 5,069 402%

Female 1,307 1,387 1,465 1,547 1,637 1,733 1,838 1,930 2,030 2,143 3,471 5,194 6,954 432%

Persons 2,317 2,460 2,604 2,755 2,917 3,088 3,271 3,441 3,619 3,818 6,138 9,046 12,023 419%

Kennedy Male 766 806 842 878 914 950 999 1,042 1,090 1,138 1,657 2,253 2,877 275%

Female 905 944 982 1,026 1,072 1,118 1,166 1,214 1,264 1,318 1,991 2,864 3,655 304%

Persons 1,671 1,750 1,824 1,904 1,986 2,068 2,165 2,256 2,354 2,456 3,648 5,117 6,532 291%

Leichhardt Male 565 599 631 670 711 753 800 846 895 949 1,592 2,318 3,151 458%




13

Female 701 732 769 810 855 899 945 994 1,045 1,098 1,823 2,705 3,475 396%

Persons 1,266 1,331 1,401 1,480 1,566 1,652 1,746 1,840 1,940 2,047 3,415 5,023 6,626 423%

Lilley Male 731 745 759 773 792 816 835 857 878 898 1,238 1,682 2,080 184%

Female 1,335 1,351 1,368 1,384 1,409 1,428 1,445 1,468 1,485 1,506 1,908 2,558 3,122 134%

Persons 2,066 2,097 2,127 2,158 2,201 2,244 2,280 2,325 2,363 2,404 3,147 4,239 5,202 152%

Longman Male 730 786 837 890 944 1,004 1,065 1,127 1,189 1,254 2,023 2,935 3,825 424%

Female 887 947 1,011 1,075 1,145 1,209 1,280 1,353 1,431 1,509 2,447 3,649 4,761 437%

Persons 1,617 1,733 1,848 1,965 2,089 2,214 2,345 2,480 2,620 2,764 4,470 6,584 8,586 431%

Maranoa Male 797 823 847 882 914 949 986 1,016 1,058 1,101 1,544 2,069 2,574 223%

Female 1,071 1,111 1,139 1,174 1,214 1,254 1,300 1,340 1,376 1,425 2,033 2,871 3,628 239%

Persons 1,868 1,933 1,986 2,056 2,127 2,204 2,287 2,356 2,434 2,526 3,576 4,940 6,202 232%

McPherson Male 873 919 964 1,014 1,061 1,110 1,162 1,214 1,270 1,322 1,993 2,782 3,532 305%

Female 1,167 1,227 1,287 1,342 1,400 1,462 1,518 1,580 1,644 1,703 2,532 3,632 4,655 299%

Persons 2,040 2,145 2,252 2,356 2,461 2,572 2,680 2,794 2,914 3,025 4,526 6,414 8,187 301%

Moncrieff Male 1,037 1,087 1,131 1,190 1,252 1,317 1,384 1,448 1,519 1,593 2,469 3,592 4,781 361%

Female 1,441 1,496 1,550 1,609 1,685 1,756 1,824 1,886 1,960 2,038 3,098 4,595 6,002 316%

Persons 2,478 2,583 2,681 2,799 2,937 3,073 3,208 3,334 3,480 3,631 5,567 8,187 10,783 335%

Moreton Male 648 668 690 712 738 764 797 824 854 881 1,259 1,754 2,222 243%

Female 1,053 1,072 1,092 1,113 1,134 1,158 1,186 1,219 1,250 1,288 1,780 2,466 3,077 192%

Persons 1,701 1,740 1,781 1,825 1,872 1,922 1,983 2,043 2,104 2,168 3,038 4,220 5,299 212%

Oxley Male 449 479 508 542 576 612 651 690 732 775 1,321 1,908 2,484 453%

Female 665 699 734 771 815 864 911 955 1,002 1,052 1,703 2,513 3,253 389%

Persons 1,114 1,178 1,242 1,313 1,391 1,476 1,562 1,645 1,735 1,828 3,024 4,421 5,736 415%

Petrie Male 724 770 819 864 915 970 1,029 1,088 1,145 1,204 1,973 2,806 3,600 397%

Female 1,104 1,157 1,212 1,275 1,342 1,409 1,476 1,543 1,616 1,696 2,700 4,048 5,250 375%

Persons 1,828 1,927 2,031 2,139 2,257 2,379 2,504 2,631 2,761 2,900 4,673 6,855 8,850 384%

Rankin Male 411 437 463 491 518 551 585 619 655 694 1,137 1,565 1,996 386%

Female 552 581 609 639 668 705 746 784 825 865 1,473 2,151 2,797 407%




14

Persons 963 1,018 1,072 1,130 1,185 1,256 1,331 1,403 1,480 1,559 2,610 3,715 4,793 398%

Ryan Male 542 568 591 613 641 671 700 726 757 784 1,183 1,685 2,174 301%

Female 857 879 900 925 951 978 1,013 1,041 1,079 1,111 1,615 2,233 2,781 224%

Persons 1,399 1,447 1,491 1,538 1,592 1,649 1,713 1,767 1,836 1,896 2,799 3,919 4,955 254%

Wide Bay Male 897 940 987 1,036 1,088 1,140 1,192 1,250 1,308 1,366 2,062 2,873 3,666 309%

Female 1,108 1,156 1,207 1,261 1,321 1,385 1,448 1,508 1,574 1,643 2,555 3,749 4,905 343%

Persons 2,004 2,096 2,194 2,297 2,409 2,524 2,640 2,758 2,881 3,009 4,617 6,622 8,571 328%

Wright Male 565 611 655 702 751 804 861 914 969 1,031 1,765 2,568 3,360 494%

Female 704 757 811 863 924 987 1,059 1,127 1,193 1,268 2,246 3,443 4,567 549%

Persons 1,269 1,368 1,466 1,565 1,674 1,791 1,919 2,041 2,162 2,299 4,011 6,011 7,926 525% Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.




15

Table 3.7: Dementia Incidence in Federal Electoral Divisions

Division Gender 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 change

Blair Male 204 217 230 245 263 284 306 323 345 371 695 1124 1554 662%

Female 322 334 349 369 394 415 437 461 488 522 949 1614 2334 626%

Persons 526 551 579 614 657 700 743 784 834 893 1644 2738 3889 640%

Bonner Male 232 244 255 268 284 302 320 330 349 367 569 824 1075 364%

Female 435 447 466 485 508 527 541 558 580 609 887 1337 1760 305%

Persons 667 690 721 753 793 829 861 888 928 976 1456 2161 2835 325%

Bowman Male 271 292 311 331 357 385 412 437 461 492 832 1278 1723 535%

Female 440 465 494 523 559 592 621 650 682 718 1166 1868 2565 483%

Persons 711 757 805 854 916 977 1033 1087 1143 1210 1998 3147 4288 503%

Brisbane Male 173 178 181 186 193 202 209 216 225 233 370 543 715 314%

Female 390 396 406 415 432 442 448 458 473 486 696 1030 1329 241%

Persons 562 574 587 601 625 644 656 674 698 719 1066 1574 2044 264%

Capricornia Male 222 235 248 265 283 301 319 334 355 377 616 930 1268 471%

Female 355 370 385 403 427 448 468 490 510 542 863 1344 1854 422%

Persons 577 605 633 668 710 750 787 824 865 919 1480 2274 3122 441%

Dawson Male 218 233 244 259 278 296 316 333 352 372 645 1012 1378 533%

Female 349 366 385 405 436 464 485 510 535 572 938 1486 2049 487%

Persons 567 599 629 665 714 759 800 843 887 944 1583 2499 3427 505%

Dickson Male 132 142 152 164 176 190 205 219 234 253 496 798 1099 730%

Female 218 233 248 264 287 306 322 344 366 391 723 1207 1682 670%

Persons 351 375 400 427 462 496 527 564 600 644 1218 2004 2781 693%

Fadden Male 268 285 299 317 340 364 388 406 427 453 779 1205 1621 506%

Female 368 391 415 443 475 507 534 561 591 627 1032 1634 2199 497%




16

Persons 636 675 714 760 815 871 922 967 1019 1079 1811 2839 3820 501%

Fairfax Male 317 342 364 395 430 464 499 531 569 615 1138 1870 2691 749%

Female 491 526 565 605 655 703 749 797 847 908 1607 2697 3900 694%

Persons 808 868 929 1000 1085 1167 1249 1328 1416 1523 2744 4568 6591 716%

Fisher Male 329 356 380 411 446 485 521 555 593 636 1135 1829 2574 681%

Female 485 520 562 602 656 704 750 793 843 907 1573 2597 3665 655%

Persons 815 876 942 1013 1103 1190 1271 1347 1436 1543 2708 4425 6239 666%

Flynn Male 180 189 200 211 223 235 250 263 276 292 501 763 1022 467%

Female 245 260 275 291 313 332 352 370 386 410 699 1120 1522 521%

Persons 425 450 475 502 536 568 601 634 662 702 1199 1883 2544 498%

Forde Male 155 166 176 189 202 217 233 248 266 284 533 799 1055 583%

Female 248 267 287 308 333 356 380 404 430 459 839 1362 1839 641%

Persons 403 433 463 497 535 573 613 652 696 743 1371 2161 2894 619%

Griffith Male 200 207 211 219 228 238 245 249 258 267 403 583 769 284%

Female 400 408 414 419 433 447 453 460 469 484 671 976 1240 210%

Persons 601 614 626 638 661 685 698 710 727 751 1074 1559 2009 234%

Groom Male 266 283 300 320 345 371 397 415 439 465 794 1238 1725 548%

Female 469 487 511 538 576 608 639 666 701 740 1146 1771 2392 410%

Persons 735 770 811 858 922 979 1035 1081 1139 1205 1940 3009 4117 460%

Herbert Male 178 188 197 208 221 234 248 258 272 288 505 756 1002 462%

Female 296 310 328 346 368 388 410 430 452 477 806 1253 1677 467%

Persons 474 498 524 554 589 622 658 688 724 765 1311 2009 2679 465%

Hinkler Male 361 388 413 445 482 519 557 589 626 669 1168 1849 2574 614%

Female 524 558 595 636 689 739 791 835 886 952 1656 2719 3885 642%

Persons 884 946 1008 1081 1171 1258 1347 1424 1512 1622 2824 4567 6459 630%

Kennedy Male 261 278 292 309 326 344 368 385 408 432 692 1036 1414 443%

Female 354 371 389 410 437 461 484 506 531 561 896 1399 1875 429%

Persons 615 649 682 719 763 805 852 891 939 993 1588 2434 3289 435%




17

Leichhardt Male 195 207 218 235 254 272 293 311 333 359 671 1092 1615 730%

Female 272 283 299 316 339 358 376 396 417 441 763 1213 1618 495%

Persons 466 491 517 551 593 630 669 707 750 799 1434 2305 3233 593%

Lilley Male 277 285 291 300 313 328 337 347 358 369 551 790 1009 264%

Female 577 591 609 626 656 676 688 707 723 745 994 1406 1775 208%

Persons 854 876 901 926 969 1004 1025 1054 1081 1114 1545 2196 2784 226%

Longman Male 258 282 301 324 351 380 409 434 463 494 869 1385 1895 636%

Female 344 368 396 425 462 493 524 558 594 636 1097 1779 2438 608%

Persons 602 650 697 749 812 874 933 992 1057 1130 1966 3164 4333 620%

Maranoa Male 277 288 297 314 329 347 366 377 396 417 640 932 1215 338%

Female 427 446 461 480 506 529 553 572 593 621 945 1436 1899 344%

Persons 705 734 757 793 835 877 919 949 989 1039 1586 2368 3114 342%

McPherson Male 327 347 366 392 416 441 466 488 515 540 876 1305 1725 427%

Female 467 496 528 557 595 631 657 689 724 759 1189 1832 2465 428%

Persons 794 844 894 949 1011 1072 1124 1176 1238 1299 2064 3138 4190 428%

Moncrieff Male 405 430 447 479 516 551 585 614 653 695 1180 1898 2690 564%

Female 609 635 666 699 751 793 827 859 900 948 1522 2454 3369 453%

Persons 1014 1065 1113 1178 1267 1344 1411 1473 1553 1643 2702 4351 6059 497%

Moreton Male 244 253 263 273 289 304 321 333 349 362 571 869 1156 375%

Female 445 456 472 487 507 525 539 560 578 603 881 1305 1698 281%

Persons 689 709 734 761 796 829 860 893 927 965 1452 2174 2855 314%

Oxley Male 153 163 173 187 201 217 233 247 264 283 527 834 1140 647%

Female 266 279 295 311 336 360 381 401 422 449 760 1211 1641 517%

Persons 419 443 468 498 537 577 615 648 687 731 1286 2045 2781 564%

Petrie Male 258 276 293 312 336 361 388 411 436 462 821 1265 1697 558%

Female 444 468 493 523 562 596 626 660 696 741 1244 2002 2705 509%

Persons 703 744 786 835 897 957 1014 1071 1132 1203 2065 3267 4402 527%

Rankin Male 123 132 140 149 158 170 184 196 210 226 420 634 859 598%




18

Female 208 219 230 242 256 272 289 303 320 338 616 992 1380 563%

Persons 331 351 370 391 414 443 473 499 530 563 1036 1626 2239 576%

Ryan Male 191 201 210 220 233 248 261 272 287 300 504 801 1099 477%

Female 353 364 376 389 408 425 442 455 476 495 748 1106 1438 307%

Persons 544 565 586 609 641 673 704 727 762 796 1252 1907 2536 366%

Wide Bay Male 312 330 348 370 396 420 445 468 495 522 870 1332 1803 477%

Female 444 465 491 517 554 588 617 645 678 718 1186 1905 2650 497%

Persons 756 795 838 887 950 1008 1062 1113 1172 1240 2056 3237 4453 489%

Wright Male 184 200 214 232 250 272 295 314 334 361 682 1084 1499 715%

Female 272 291 313 335 365 393 424 452 480 516 973 1641 2311 749%

Persons 456 491 527 567 615 665 718 766 815 877 1655 2725 3810 735% Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.






3.3 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE BY STATE ELECTORAL DISTRICTS

The prevalence and incidence of dementia is expected to grow substantially throughout each State Electoral District (SED). In 2011, Surfers paradise is estimated to have around 946 people with dementia, ranking first in terms of dementia prevalence, while Mount Isa is estimated to have the lowest estimated number of people with dementia, with around 189 cases. In 2050, it is expected that Hervey Bay will have the highest number of people with dementia with around 5,101 cases, while Mount Isa will remain with the least number of people with dementia with around 570 cases. The average growth in prevalence, across all SEDs between 2011 and 2050, is estimated at around 351%, with the most rapid growth expected in Bundamba, at almost 783% (which is nearly nine-fold). Stafford will experience the least growth, at around 106%. Table 3.8 to Table 3.10 show dementia prevalence by the top 10 SEDs in 2010, 2030 and 2050 respectively. Detailed dementia prevalence and incidence projections can be found in Table 3.11 and Table 3.12.

Table 3.8: Dementia prevalence in 2011, by top ten SEDs

Rank SED Dementia Prevalence 1 Surfers Paradise 946 2 Broadwater 941 3 Bundaberg 882 4 Pumicestone 876 5 Kawana 874 6 Hervey Bay 869 7 Redcliffe 836 8 Mermaid Beach 835 9 Caloundra 810 10 Toowoomba South 800 Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.







Rank SED Dementia Prevalence 1 Hervey Bay 2,525 2 Caloundra 2,385 3 Kawana 2,270 4 Buderim 2,267 5 Pumicestone 2,154 6 Murrumba 2,146 7 Surfers Paradise 2,131 8 Bundaberg 2,027 9 Maroochydore 1,992 10 Broadwater 1,930 Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.


Rank SED Dementia Prevalence 1 Hervey Bay 5,101 2 Caloundra 4,916 3 Buderim 4,875 4 Kawana 4,505 5 Murrumba 4,382 6 Surfers Paradise 4,132 7 Maroochydore 4,060 8 Pumicestone 4,032 9 Bundaberg 3,904 10 Broadwater 3,530 Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.




22

Table 3.11: Dementia Prevalence in State Electoral Districts

Division Gender 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 change Albert Male 158 172 187 203 221 239 258 281 303 326 619 887 1154 632%

Female 189 207 226 246 268 291 316 341 368 396 776 1211 1594 745%

Persons 346 378 413 449 488 530 575 622 671 722 1396 2099 2748 693%

Algester Male 138 150 160 170 181 194 207 219 231 244 406 575 735 433%

Female 202 217 231 245 259 275 292 309 325 342 564 841 1119 453%

Persons 340 366 391 415 441 469 499 527 556 586 970 1416 1854 445%

Ashgrove Male 179 185 192 198 203 210 216 225 234 242 368 553 742 315%

Female 306 314 319 330 337 342 353 361 374 379 523 728 921 201%

Persons 485 500 512 527 540 552 569 585 608 621 891 1281 1663 243%

Aspley Male 233 245 257 268 280 293 305 319 331 341 497 672 829 256%

Female 405 424 439 457 476 494 513 531 548 566 780 1093 1381 240%

Persons 638 669 696 725 755 787 817 850 879 907 1277 1766 2209 246%

Barron River Male 185 199 214 230 246 262 282 301 321 342 587 854 1171 532%

Female 219 233 250 266 284 302 321 342 362 384 681 1037 1355 520%

Persons 404 432 464 496 530 565 604 643 683 726 1268 1891 2526 525%

Beaudesert Male 239 256 274 292 312 332 355 376 397 424 727 1077 1440 504%

Female 294 313 333 353 374 400 429 455 481 508 886 1367 1832 523%

Persons 532 570 607 645 686 732 784 831 879 932 1613 2444 3272 515%

Brisbane Central Male 153 157 162 167 175 182 192 201 211 221 355 489 620 305%

Female 273 280 288 294 302 311 318 328 341 355 546 801 1030 277%

Persons 426 437 450 461 476 494 510 529 552 575 901 1289 1650 287%

Broadwater Male 409 429 442 459 480 501 523 542 560 582 840 1183 1511 269%

Female 532 556 581 607 631 658 684 706 733 760 1090 1569 2020 280%

Persons 941 984 1023 1066 1111 1160 1207 1248 1294 1343 1930 2752 3530 275%

Buderim Male 314 336 358 382 410 437 465 494 523 557 946 1446 1999 536%




23

Female 467 499 532 564 599 635 673 711 747 790 1321 2075 2877 516% Persons 781 835 890 946 1009 1071 1138 1205 1270 1347 2267 3521 4875 524%

Bulimba Male 169 174 178 182 186 193 199 201 207 213 321 447 565 233% Female 269 274 277 280 285 294 299 302 306 313 441 613 757 182% Persons 438 447 455 462 471 486 498 504 513 526 762 1061 1322 202%

Bundaberg Male 348 371 391 415 438 463 490 515 539 568 856 1213 1614 363% Female 533 558 580 606 635 668 702 727 755 789 1171 1724 2290 329% Persons 882 929 972 1021 1074 1131 1192 1242 1294 1357 2027 2937 3904 343%

Bundamba Male 143 156 170 185 202 222 242 263 285 310 627 989 1357 846% Female 173 186 201 216 233 252 273 295 318 343 678 1073 1442 731% Persons 317 343 372 401 435 474 515 558 603 653 1305 2062 2799 783%

Burdekin Male 230 240 248 256 264 273 285 296 307 319 459 608 747 225% Female 294 307 318 327 339 354 364 375 389 403 579 800 984 234% Persons 524 547 566 584 603 627 649 672 696 722 1038 1408 1731 230%

Burleigh Male 335 348 359 376 391 406 423 438 456 472 680 938 1207 261% Female 462 478 494 511 529 548 564 579 602 617 873 1204 1503 226%

Persons 796 827 854 888 920 954 987 1017 1058 1090 1553 2143 2710 240%

Burnett Male 257 272 287 302 319 336 354 373 390 412 663 926 1184 361% Female 256 272 290 308 328 349 370 391 414 439 762 1149 1528 498% Persons 512 544 577 610 647 685 724 764 804 850 1424 2076 2712 430%

Cairns Male 240 251 261 275 290 305 320 336 354 372 593 862 1169 388% Female 338 348 360 374 391 405 420 436 452 471 717 1040 1317 290% Persons 577 599 621 649 681 710 740 772 806 842 1309 1902 2486 331%

Callide Male 254 261 270 278 289 299 310 320 332 343 481 631 769 203% Female 303 314 324 335 347 361 375 389 399 414 593 828 1035 241% Persons 557 575 594 613 637 659 685 709 730 757 1074 1459 1804 224%

Caloundra Male 349 374 400 429 457 489 521 555 589 626 1061 1593 2169 521% Female 461 488 520 552 586 623 661 698 739 786 1324 2042 2748 496%




24

Persons 810 863 920 981 1043 1112 1182 1253 1328 1412 2385 3635 4916 507%

Capalaba Male 190 201 213 223 235 248 260 274 285 300 443 600 749 294% Female 273 287 300 313 326 340 353 364 377 388 570 816 1049 284% Persons 463 488 513 536 562 588 613 638 662 688 1013 1417 1798 288%

Chatsworth Male 193 205 216 228 243 258 272 283 296 312 492 691 900 367% Female 290 304 318 331 345 360 372 383 397 415 619 891 1128 289% Persons 483 509 533 560 588 618 644 665 693 727 1111 1582 2028 320%

Clayfield Male 199 204 209 214 219 225 232 240 246 253 363 497 626 215% Female 376 378 384 387 397 404 406 413 420 426 567 758 913 143% Persons 575 582 593 601 616 629 638 652 666 679 930 1255 1538 168%

Cleveland Male 290 307 324 342 363 384 406 427 447 469 717 998 1283 342% Female 448 469 489 508 526 546 565 584 605 626 927 1354 1738 288% Persons 738 776 814 850 889 930 970 1010 1051 1094 1644 2353 3021 309%

Condamine Male 227 238 250 263 278 292 307 321 337 351 517 694 868 283% Female 294 305 315 328 341 355 368 382 398 415 629 903 1150 291% Persons 521 543 565 592 619 647 675 704 735 766 1146 1597 2018 288%

Cook Male 175 185 193 201 211 221 235 245 255 270 427 610 811 364% Female 172 179 187 196 205 216 226 239 253 264 436 635 810 370% Persons 347 363 380 398 416 437 461 484 508 534 864 1245 1622 367%

Coomera Male 236 255 274 291 311 334 358 380 403 428 741 1085 1409 497% Female 277 299 322 346 369 396 422 451 479 508 869 1313 1695 512% Persons 513 554 596 638 681 731 780 831 882 935 1610 2398 3104 505%

Currumbin Male 322 336 349 361 374 386 399 413 428 441 621 833 1029 219% Female 449 467 484 500 514 534 549 567 583 599 841 1195 1526 240% Persons 771 803 833 860 888 919 949 980 1011 1040 1461 2028 2555 231%

Dalrymple Male 249 259 269 280 291 304 318 330 344 360 523 700 869 249% Female 310 324 338 351 366 384 400 415 431 451 660 931 1181 281% Persons 559 583 606 631 658 688 718 745 775 811 1183 1631 2049 267%




25

Everton Male 165 175 185 193 203 214 225 236 246 258 395 549 694 320% Female 268 280 295 307 322 334 347 361 372 388 586 865 1110 315% Persons 433 455 480 500 526 549 572 596 619 646 981 1413 1804 317%

Ferny Grove Male 147 157 166 175 184 196 207 218 230 242 411 590 775 426% Female 197 208 218 229 241 253 265 279 291 306 511 758 980 397% Persons 345 364 384 404 425 449 473 497 521 548 922 1349 1755 409%

Gaven Male 244 263 283 304 328 355 380 405 432 462 809 1212 1629 569% Female 324 346 367 391 416 442 469 495 524 554 942 1438 1892 483% Persons 568 608 650 695 744 797 849 901 956 1017 1751 2650 3521 520%

Gladstone Male 165 175 188 198 209 220 234 250 262 276 463 690 917 454% Female 199 213 225 239 253 269 283 299 313 328 552 839 1115 460% Persons 364 388 413 437 462 490 517 549 574 604 1015 1529 2032 458%

Glass House Male 240 258 275 293 311 332 353 374 395 417 701 1024 1326 452% Female 279 300 320 342 364 388 413 439 465 495 858 1316 1748 526% Persons 520 558 595 635 675 721 766 813 860 912 1559 2340 3074 492%

Greenslopes Male 181 185 189 193 199 204 208 212 217 222 294 377 458 153% Female 340 344 350 355 359 365 368 372 377 386 472 628 755 122% Persons 521 529 538 548 557 569 576 584 594 608 767 1004 1213 133%

Gregory Male 123 127 131 136 141 146 150 155 160 168 234 292 355 188% Female 141 149 155 158 165 171 180 185 190 197 299 418 525 271% Persons 265 277 286 293 306 317 330 340 351 365 533 710 879 232%

Gympie Male 282 300 317 338 356 378 399 419 440 462 734 1053 1348 378% Female 343 363 386 407 430 453 480 506 532 562 927 1408 1884 449% Persons 625 663 703 745 786 831 879 925 973 1024 1661 2460 3232 417%

Hervey Bay Male 391 415 443 470 501 532 564 598 632 667 1107 1640 2170 455% Female 478 511 544 578 614 651 695 735 780 829 1418 2166 2931 513% Persons 869 926 986 1047 1115 1183 1259 1333 1412 1496 2525 3806 5101 487%

Hinchinbrook Male 244 258 270 282 294 306 322 336 351 366 526 696 851 249%




26

Female 294 307 320 337 354 367 385 403 421 438 660 977 1274 333%

Persons 539 566 590 619 648 673 707 739 771 805 1186 1673 2125 295%

Inala Male 181 191 200 210 221 232 244 257 270 283 444 627 805 344%

Female 273 289 302 316 332 348 365 379 396 413 632 914 1165 326%

Persons 455 480 502 525 553 580 609 635 666 696 1077 1541 1970 333%

Indooroopilly Male 149 153 157 160 165 169 177 182 190 196 284 383 473 217%

Female 282 285 291 294 298 304 310 316 323 328 459 629 770 173%

Persons 432 438 448 454 463 473 487 499 513 523 742 1011 1244 188%

Ipswich Male 223 235 248 260 274 290 308 324 341 361 600 889 1175 427%

Female 341 350 362 377 391 406 421 440 461 483 775 1180 1601 369%

Persons 564 586 609 636 665 696 729 765 803 844 1375 2069 2776 392%

Ipswich West Male 204 216 229 240 254 270 287 304 321 339 578 845 1109 442%

Female 272 283 295 310 324 338 356 373 392 415 718 1114 1511 456%

Persons 476 499 524 550 578 608 643 677 713 753 1296 1959 2620 450%

Kallangur Male 142 152 162 172 184 196 208 222 236 252 438 646 848 497%

Female 193 206 215 226 240 251 265 283 300 319 561 861 1155 497%

Persons 335 358 377 398 423 447 473 505 536 571 999 1507 2003 497%

Kawana Male 353 375 396 420 448 477 504 531 561 592 952 1407 1872 431%

Female 521 554 589 621 658 692 728 761 798 838 1317 1974 2633 405%

Persons 874 929 985 1041 1106 1169 1233 1292 1359 1430 2270 3381 4505 415%

Keppel Male 260 276 290 308 325 342 361 379 397 418 645 897 1155 345%

Female 351 367 381 396 414 431 452 473 492 516 824 1236 1660 373%

Persons 611 642 671 704 739 774 813 851 889 934 1469 2133 2815 361%

Lockyer Male 200 215 228 243 260 278 297 314 333 353 598 855 1099 449%

Female 262 279 298 313 337 358 383 407 431 463 851 1354 1820 596%

Persons 462 494 526 557 597 636 680 721 764 816 1449 2209 2920 532%

Logan Male 119 130 141 153 166 180 194 209 225 242 460 675 884 641%

Female 132 144 157 170 185 199 217 235 254 273 545 850 1143 767%




27

Persons 251 274 298 323 350 379 411 444 479 515 1005 1525 2027 707%

Lytton Male 240 248 257 266 274 282 293 304 317 328 447 578 698 191%

Female 422 427 434 440 449 458 465 472 481 493 665 922 1170 177%

Persons 662 676 691 707 723 740 758 776 798 821 1112 1500 1868 182%

Mackay Male 205 218 231 246 263 279 296 314 331 349 575 847 1117 445%

Female 301 316 332 349 368 387 406 427 448 471 755 1130 1515 403%

Persons 506 534 563 595 631 666 702 741 779 821 1330 1977 2632 420%

Mansfield Male 201 209 216 225 235 244 255 262 272 281 388 520 650 224%

Female 344 351 362 375 386 396 406 420 434 449 601 825 1014 195%

Persons 544 559 578 599 620 640 661 682 706 730 989 1345 1663 206%

Maroochydore Male 305 327 348 371 396 419 447 474 502 533 885 1317 1784 485%

Female 414 442 466 492 521 548 580 610 640 676 1106 1686 2276 449%

Persons 719 769 814 863 917 967 1026 1084 1142 1209 1992 3004 4060 464%

Maryborough Male 325 340 357 374 393 409 428 450 471 493 743 1028 1306 301%

Female 414 431 446 462 484 505 529 547 570 595 911 1306 1694 310%

Persons 739 771 804 836 877 914 957 997 1041 1088 1654 2334 3000 306%

Mermaid Beach Male 367 385 402 421 443 464 487 509 529 551 828 1158 1473 301%

Female 468 490 512 531 558 579 602 627 653 679 1016 1477 1904 307%

Persons 835 875 914 952 1001 1043 1089 1136 1183 1230 1845 2635 3378 305%

Mirani Male 187 195 205 216 227 239 251 264 278 292 459 640 819 339%

Female 206 215 225 237 248 260 273 286 298 314 522 754 962 366%

Persons 393 410 431 453 475 499 524 550 576 606 980 1394 1782 353%

Moggill Male 187 198 207 219 232 246 259 269 281 291 437 609 776 315%

Female 269 280 290 303 317 328 343 355 372 388 571 767 936 249%

Persons 456 479 497 521 549 574 602 624 653 679 1008 1377 1712 276%

Morayfield Male 187 205 221 237 254 273 292 311 330 351 597 889 1177 529%

Female 202 218 235 252 271 290 311 330 354 377 657 1004 1326 555%

Persons 389 423 455 489 524 562 603 641 683 728 1254 1894 2503 543%




28

Mount Coot-Tha Male 126 132 135 139 146 152 158 163 169 177 271 374 472 274%

Female 216 218 221 225 229 233 242 248 255 263 390 549 686 218%

Persons 342 350 356 364 375 386 400 411 425 439 661 924 1158 239%

Mount Isa Male 94 96 101 103 106 108 113 117 124 127 179 220 270 188%

Female 95 98 101 105 106 110 114 116 120 124 193 252 300 216%

Persons 189 194 201 208 211 218 227 233 244 252 371 472 570 202%

Mount Ommaney Male 201 210 219 230 241 251 263 273 286 297 446 606 757 276%

Female 342 346 353 363 374 388 400 411 423 437 619 867 1096 221%

Persons 543 556 572 593 615 639 663 685 709 734 1065 1473 1853 241%

Mudgeeraba Male 214 233 252 273 291 313 336 357 382 405 692 1019 1347 529%

Female 240 262 282 303 325 349 373 396 418 443 748 1109 1432 496%

Persons 455 495 534 575 616 662 708 753 800 848 1439 2128 2779 511%

Mulgrave Male 198 213 226 241 255 270 288 305 323 341 569 847 1164 488%

Female 232 244 256 270 288 303 319 335 354 372 624 943 1229 430%

Persons 430 457 483 511 543 573 606 640 677 713 1193 1790 2393 457%

Mundingburra Male 171 179 188 196 206 216 225 235 246 256 395 550 703 311%

Female 286 296 306 316 328 341 357 370 383 399 577 787 972 240%

Persons 457 475 494 512 534 557 582 605 629 655 972 1337 1675 267%

Murrumba Male 246 268 292 317 342 371 401 433 465 499 929 1365 1787 627%

Female 329 358 388 422 456 493 531 568 609 652 1217 1951 2595 688%

Persons 575 626 681 739 799 865 932 1001 1074 1151 2146 3316 4382 662%

Nanango Male 285 300 314 329 344 361 379 395 415 434 671 936 1184 315%

Female 325 339 354 371 388 407 426 447 466 488 777 1154 1496 361%

Persons 610 639 667 700 733 768 804 842 881 922 1449 2091 2681 339%

Nicklin Male 257 271 284 299 315 334 352 369 389 411 660 944 1207 370%

Female 326 340 357 375 392 412 434 456 479 501 813 1203 1572 382%

Persons 583 611 641 674 707 746 786 825 868 912 1473 2147 2779 376%

Noosa Male 328 344 361 378 396 416 435 456 476 497 751 1058 1380 321%




29

Female 387 404 421 441 462 485 506 526 549 573 881 1297 1695 338%

Persons 715 748 782 819 859 901 940 982 1024 1070 1632 2354 3075 330%

Nudgee Male 242 247 251 256 262 268 275 282 289 296 418 585 735 204%

Female 424 431 438 440 448 455 460 471 478 483 624 825 988 133%

Persons 666 678 689 696 710 722 735 753 767 780 1042 1411 1723 159%

Pine Rivers Male 137 146 156 166 175 186 197 211 224 237 402 556 702 413%

Female 190 199 210 223 236 251 262 276 292 309 525 783 1020 438%

Persons 327 345 366 388 411 436 459 487 516 546 927 1339 1722 427%

Pumicestone Male 385 409 431 455 480 507 534 563 591 620 953 1357 1749 354%

Female 490 517 547 578 610 641 672 706 743 778 1201 1760 2283 366%

Persons 876 926 979 1033 1090 1147 1206 1270 1334 1398 2154 3117 4032 361%

Redcliffe Male 318 332 346 358 374 390 409 425 439 455 662 926 1182 272%

Female 518 529 540 553 570 586 601 617 635 655 899 1248 1564 202%

Persons 836 861 887 911 944 976 1009 1042 1073 1111 1561 2174 2746 228%

Redlands Male 266 286 305 322 341 361 385 408 429 454 749 1101 1432 439%

Female 356 378 401 427 452 479 508 537 567 596 988 1508 2014 465%

Persons 622 664 706 748 793 841 894 945 996 1051 1737 2609 3446 454%

Rockhampton Male 217 225 235 245 256 267 278 289 302 317 464 632 815 275%

Female 369 379 389 400 412 424 437 450 464 482 670 933 1184 220%

Persons 587 604 625 645 668 691 715 739 766 798 1135 1565 1999 241%

Sandgate Male 213 221 229 237 245 256 266 277 289 300 459 631 784 268%

Female 370 380 388 403 414 428 439 450 462 476 685 972 1229 232%

Persons 583 600 617 639 659 683 705 727 751 775 1144 1603 2013 245%

South Brisbane Male 184 190 196 201 208 214 222 228 236 243 350 474 589 221%

Female 313 317 316 318 322 327 334 340 347 355 509 722 907 190%

Persons 497 507 512 519 530 541 555 568 583 598 859 1196 1497 201%

Southern Downs Male 290 299 309 323 336 353 367 379 396 413 597 827 1048 262%

Female 414 430 445 459 476 492 512 528 545 567 804 1125 1431 246%




30

Persons 704 729 754 782 813 845 879 908 942 980 1402 1952 2479 252%

Southport Male 252 262 275 288 301 315 330 346 362 378 587 833 1073 326%

Female 401 412 423 437 455 473 489 503 521 540 815 1184 1546 285%

Persons 653 674 698 725 757 788 818 849 883 918 1402 2017 2619 301%

Springwood Male 135 141 147 155 162 169 179 187 196 207 331 458 578 329%

Female 201 208 215 221 227 237 245 252 263 274 446 640 817 306%

Persons 336 348 361 376 389 406 423 439 459 480 777 1098 1395 315%

Stafford Male 195 200 202 206 212 218 221 226 232 236 293 371 448 130%

Female 382 385 387 392 398 402 404 407 410 414 495 630 741 94%

Persons 577 585 589 597 610 620 625 634 641 650 788 1001 1190 106%

Stretton Male 154 165 175 187 200 214 229 244 259 275 470 685 885 476%

Female 258 271 288 304 319 338 359 376 397 416 708 1092 1450 463%

Persons 411 437 463 491 519 552 588 620 656 691 1178 1777 2335 468%

Sunnybank Male 236 246 256 266 275 287 299 311 323 333 465 637 801 239%

Female 349 360 368 379 391 405 416 430 443 459 627 860 1070 206%

Persons 586 606 624 645 667 692 716 741 765 792 1091 1497 1871 219%

Surfers Paradise Male 403 423 440 464 487 512 537 561 590 617 953 1391 1853 360%

Female 542 564 587 610 640 669 697 719 746 775 1178 1746 2279 320%

Persons 946 987 1027 1074 1127 1181 1234 1280 1336 1393 2131 3138 4132 337%

Thuringowa Male 137 147 159 172 185 199 213 229 244 261 466 669 865 532%

Female 178 194 209 227 243 261 281 299 320 341 610 949 1271 616%

Persons 314 341 368 398 429 460 495 528 564 602 1076 1619 2136 579%

Toowoomba North Male 262 276 289 302 317 333 350 366 383 401 627 895 1144 337%

Female 407 422 439 456 477 498 519 538 560 585 860 1237 1571 286%

Persons 669 698 728 758 794 831 869 904 943 986 1486 2132 2716 306%

Toowoomba South Male 287 303 319 335 354 374 395 412 431 451 696 1002 1351 371%

Female 514 529 547 567 591 613 638 658 682 706 1006 1437 1871 264%

Persons 800 832 866 903 945 987 1032 1070 1113 1156 1703 2438 3222 303%




31

Townsville Male 213 218 222 227 234 241 251 256 264 274 411 553 684 222%

Female 304 310 319 329 339 347 359 369 379 390 590 848 1058 248%

Persons 516 529 541 556 573 588 610 626 643 664 1002 1401 1742 237%

Warrego Male 186 192 198 206 211 217 226 232 240 248 328 419 507 172%

Female 258 268 272 282 290 300 310 319 327 337 469 650 806 212%

Persons 445 460 470 488 502 517 536 552 567 584 797 1069 1312 195%

Waterford Male 201 212 221 232 243 255 269 282 297 313 492 664 827 312%

Female 287 303 318 331 348 363 381 399 416 435 688 1000 1268 341%

Persons 488 515 538 563 592 619 650 681 713 748 1180 1664 2095 329%

Whitsunday Male 200 213 225 237 251 265 282 298 313 329 541 789 1035 418%

Female 251 262 273 286 304 319 335 352 368 389 645 965 1276 408%

Persons 451 475 498 523 555 585 617 650 681 718 1186 1755 2312 412%

Woodridge Male 138 145 153 161 169 179 189 199 211 222 344 457 583 322%

Female 158 164 170 178 186 195 205 216 226 237 393 554 712 351%

Persons 296 309 323 339 355 373 394 415 437 459 737 1011 1295 338%

Yeerongpilly Male 216 219 223 227 231 236 241 246 251 254 330 433 533 147%

Female 344 348 350 354 357 360 365 370 374 380 477 606 703 104%





32

Table 3.12: Dementia Incidence in State Electoral Districts

Division Gender 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 change Albert Male 46 50 54 59 64 70 76 83 89 97 199 296 394 758%

Female 67 74 81 89 98 107 117 126 137 148 308 515 702 947%

Persons 113 123 135 148 162 177 193 209 227 245 507 811 1096 870%

Algester Male 45 49 53 57 61 66 72 76 81 86 158 242 323 617%

Female 80 87 94 100 109 117 125 133 141 150 263 429 608 657%

Persons 126 136 147 157 170 183 197 209 222 236 421 671 932 642%

Ashgrove Male 66 69 72 74 76 80 83 87 91 96 164 283 407 515%

Female 129 133 136 143 149 153 159 163 171 175 253 383 510 295%

Persons 195 202 208 217 225 233 242 250 263 270 418 666 917 369%

Aspley Male 85 90 96 101 107 114 119 126 132 137 217 313 401 372%

Female 172 181 189 200 213 224 234 246 256 268 392 587 776 351%

Persons 257 272 285 301 320 338 354 372 388 405 609 900 1177 358%

Barron River Male 62 67 73 80 87 94 102 110 118 129 247 396 593 853%

Female 82 88 95 102 111 119 126 135 143 153 286 471 641 683%

Persons 144 155 167 181 197 212 229 244 262 282 533 867 1234 756%

Beaudesert Male 81 88 95 103 111 120 130 138 147 160 304 492 702 761%

Female 118 125 134 144 155 169 183 194 207 221 409 689 979 732%

Persons 199 214 229 247 266 288 312 333 354 381 713 1181 1680 744%

Brisbane Central Male 51 52 53 55 58 61 64 67 70 74 128 189 249 389%

Female 116 118 123 126 131 137 140 145 151 158 246 385 518 346%

Persons 167 170 176 181 189 198 204 211 221 231 374 574 766 359%

Broadwater Male 160 170 175 183 197 209 220 228 238 250 390 605 815 409%

Female 216 228 242 257 273 291 304 315 330 348 530 835 1136 427%

Persons 376 397 416 440 470 499 524 543 568 598 919 1440 1950 419%




33

Buderim Male 124 134 143 156 172 186 201 214 229 249 463 778 1146 827%

Female 198 214 232 249 272 294 314 335 355 382 686 1180 1744 783% Persons 321 347 375 405 445 480 514 549 584 631 1149 1958 2889 800%

Bulimba Male 62 64 65 67 69 72 74 74 77 79 124 182 236 278% Female 107 109 111 113 116 122 123 124 126 130 188 275 349 227% Persons 169 173 177 180 186 194 198 199 203 209 312 458 585 246%

Bundaberg Male 134 145 153 166 180 194 209 221 234 252 420 660 942 605% Female 225 237 249 264 285 304 323 337 354 377 604 971 1371 509% Persons 359 382 402 431 465 499 533 558 588 629 1024 1630 2313 544%

Bundamba Male 47 51 56 62 69 78 86 94 103 115 259 456 659 1300% Female 65 70 76 82 89 98 107 116 125 137 287 496 700 981% Persons 112 121 132 143 158 176 193 210 229 252 546 951 1359 1115%

Burdekin Male 75 79 81 84 87 91 96 100 104 108 169 240 307 308% Female 113 119 125 129 135 143 147 152 159 167 248 365 465 309% Persons 189 198 206 213 222 234 243 252 262 275 416 604 772 309%

Burleigh Male 133 140 145 154 164 173 182 188 198 207 317 469 637 380% Female 187 196 206 216 229 241 249 257 270 280 413 602 782 319%

Persons 319 336 350 370 393 414 431 445 468 487 729 1071 1419 344%

Burnett Male 77 83 88 94 100 107 114 120 126 135 240 359 478 518% Female 93 100 107 115 125 134 143 152 162 174 327 540 767 724% Persons 170 183 195 209 225 241 257 272 288 309 567 899 1246 631%

Cairns Male 88 93 96 102 111 118 125 132 141 150 267 435 640 627% Female 137 141 147 153 163 170 176 183 191 200 317 489 638 365% Persons 225 233 242 255 274 288 301 316 332 350 584 924 1278 468%

Callide Male 85 87 90 94 99 103 108 111 116 121 188 268 342 303% Female 118 123 127 133 140 147 154 160 165 174 263 398 518 338% Persons 203 210 218 227 239 250 262 271 281 295 451 666 860 323%

Caloundra Male 131 143 153 167 182 199 214 230 247 266 491 807 1169 791%




34

Female 189 202 218 234 254 274 292 310 332 359 642 1077 1528 707% Persons 321 345 371 402 436 473 506 540 578 625 1133 1884 2697 741%

Capalaba Male 67 72 76 81 87 93 98 104 110 117 191 287 379 462% Female 111 117 124 131 140 148 155 159 165 172 268 417 565 409% Persons 178 189 200 211 226 241 252 263 275 289 460 704 944 429%

Chatsworth Male 68 74 78 84 92 99 105 109 115 123 213 326 453 562% Female 116 122 130 137 144 153 157 162 169 180 280 431 566 387% Persons 185 196 208 220 236 252 263 271 284 303 493 757 1019 452%

Clayfield Male 73 75 77 79 82 85 88 90 93 96 147 219 290 297% Female 156 157 162 164 171 175 175 179 183 187 256 359 448 187% Persons 229 233 239 243 253 260 262 269 276 283 403 579 738 222%

Cleveland Male 111 119 126 135 146 158 168 178 188 200 330 499 678 510% Female 188 198 209 219 232 243 252 262 273 286 443 701 940 400% Persons 299 317 335 354 378 401 420 439 461 486 772 1200 1618 441%

Condamine Male 77 81 85 91 98 104 111 116 123 129 204 292 383 396% Female 115 120 124 131 138 146 152 158 165 174 274 419 557 384% Persons 192 201 210 222 236 250 263 274 288 304 477 712 940 389%

Cook Male 56 60 63 66 70 75 81 85 89 97 171 276 401 618% Female 62 64 68 72 75 79 84 89 94 99 176 275 366 491% Persons 118 124 130 138 146 154 165 174 184 196 347 552 766 551%

Coomera Male 78 85 92 98 106 115 125 132 141 151 288 452 609 684% Female 104 113 122 133 143 155 165 179 190 204 368 592 787 654% Persons 182 198 214 231 249 270 290 311 331 355 657 1044 1396 666%

Currumbin Male 122 129 134 140 147 153 160 166 173 179 269 385 492 302% Female 186 196 206 215 226 239 246 255 264 275 405 622 838 351% Persons 309 324 340 355 373 392 406 421 437 454 673 1007 1330 331%

Dalrymple Male 86 90 94 98 103 109 115 120 126 134 210 304 394 357% Female 124 130 137 144 152 162 170 177 184 197 301 458 610 393%




35

Persons 210 221 230 242 255 271 285 297 311 330 511 761 1004 378%

Everton Male 58 62 66 69 74 79 84 88 93 98 164 249 331 470% Female 109 114 122 128 138 145 150 158 163 172 275 442 594 445% Persons 167 176 188 198 212 224 235 245 256 270 438 691 925 454%

Ferny Grove Male 47 51 54 57 61 66 71 75 79 85 167 277 392 726% Female 77 81 85 90 96 102 107 113 118 126 224 368 504 558% Persons 124 132 139 147 157 168 178 188 198 211 391 644 896 622%

Gaven Male 89 97 104 114 126 138 149 159 172 187 356 584 831 832% Female 133 142 152 163 176 189 201 213 227 242 431 713 979 638% Persons 222 238 256 276 302 327 350 373 399 429 787 1297 1810 716%

Gladstone Male 56 59 65 69 74 79 84 91 96 102 188 315 443 697% Female 77 84 89 96 104 113 119 127 133 141 250 416 584 659% Persons 133 143 154 165 178 191 203 218 228 243 439 730 1027 675%

Glass House Male 80 87 93 100 107 116 125 133 141 151 281 446 602 652% Female 107 116 124 134 146 158 169 180 192 207 384 644 903 740% Persons 188 203 217 235 253 274 294 313 334 358 666 1090 1506 703%

Greenslopes Male 69 70 72 74 77 81 83 84 87 89 125 170 218 217% Female 145 148 152 156 161 167 168 171 175 182 229 323 402 177% Persons 214 218 224 230 238 248 251 256 262 271 354 494 620 190%

Gregory Male 36 37 38 40 42 44 46 47 49 52 77 99 125 245% Female 51 54 57 58 62 65 70 72 74 78 126 189 247 383% Persons 87 92 96 98 104 109 116 119 123 130 203 288 371 326%

Gympie Male 94 101 108 117 124 135 144 152 161 171 300 472 636 574% Female 137 145 156 166 180 191 204 217 230 246 436 731 1044 664% Persons 231 246 264 283 304 326 348 368 391 417 736 1203 1680 627%

Hervey Bay Male 141 152 162 174 190 205 220 235 250 267 481 780 1081 666% Female 192 207 223 239 261 279 302 321 344 372 679 1133 1633 752% Persons 333 358 385 414 451 485 522 555 594 639 1160 1913 2714 715%




36

Hinchinbrook Male 81 87 92 97 102 107 114 119 126 133 207 293 373 360% Female 117 122 128 137 147 154 163 172 181 192 309 504 697 496%

Persons 198 210 220 234 249 261 277 291 307 325 516 796 1069 440%

Inala Male 63 66 70 74 79 84 89 94 99 105 179 274 368 489%

Female 109 116 122 129 139 148 157 163 172 182 290 451 598 449%

Persons 172 182 192 203 218 232 246 257 271 287 469 725 967 463%

Indooroopilly Male 53 54 55 56 58 60 63 65 68 71 112 161 206 288%

Female 121 122 125 127 132 135 138 141 145 147 212 308 389 223%

Persons 174 176 181 183 190 195 202 206 213 218 323 468 595 243%

Ipswich Male 82 88 93 98 106 113 122 128 136 146 265 429 594 620%

Female 142 146 151 159 169 177 184 194 205 218 371 622 903 536%

Persons 224 233 244 258 275 291 306 322 341 364 636 1051 1497 567%

Ipswich West Male 72 76 80 85 91 98 106 112 119 127 236 378 519 626%

Female 110 115 120 128 136 143 150 158 167 179 328 560 811 636%

Persons 182 191 201 213 227 241 256 270 286 306 564 938 1330 632%

Kallangur Male 47 51 54 57 62 67 72 77 83 89 173 283 391 736%

Female 77 83 87 92 99 104 110 119 126 136 254 427 610 687%

Persons 124 134 141 149 161 171 182 196 209 226 427 710 1000 705%

Kawana Male 135 146 154 166 182 198 211 223 239 256 444 719 1010 646%

Female 217 234 253 271 296 316 335 352 373 399 662 1075 1517 598%

Persons 353 379 407 437 478 514 547 576 612 655 1106 1794 2527 616%

Keppel Male 91 99 104 113 121 130 139 146 154 164 273 416 567 522%

Female 144 151 158 166 178 187 197 208 217 232 394 648 934 550%

Persons 235 250 262 279 299 317 336 354 372 397 668 1064 1500 539%

Lockyer Male 63 68 72 78 84 92 99 105 112 120 221 341 456 624%

Female 101 108 116 122 134 143 155 165 175 191 379 665 944 831%

Persons 164 176 188 200 219 235 254 270 287 311 600 1006 1400 752%

Logan Male 35 39 42 46 50 55 60 65 70 77 160 254 344 885%




37

Female 47 51 56 61 68 74 81 88 96 103 220 378 544 1059%

Persons 82 90 98 107 118 129 141 153 166 180 380 632 888 985%

Lytton Male 90 93 97 101 105 109 115 119 126 132 192 265 331 269%

Female 180 183 187 192 200 206 209 213 218 227 323 485 654 264%

Persons 270 276 284 292 304 315 324 332 344 360 515 750 985 266%

Mackay Male 74 79 83 90 99 106 114 121 129 137 246 398 551 650%

Female 125 131 140 149 162 173 181 193 204 219 367 597 850 583%

Persons 198 210 223 239 261 279 295 314 333 356 613 994 1402 608%

Mansfield Male 71 74 77 81 87 92 98 101 106 111 168 247 327 360%

Female 142 145 152 159 167 173 178 186 195 205 290 428 547 284%

Persons 213 220 229 240 253 265 276 286 301 316 458 675 873 309%

Maroochydore Male 114 124 133 144 157 169 183 195 209 226 413 675 976 759%

Female 170 183 195 209 228 243 258 273 290 311 544 905 1298 665%

Persons 283 307 328 353 385 412 441 468 499 538 957 1580 2274 703%

Maryborough Male 113 120 126 133 142 149 157 166 176 186 305 463 621 447%

Female 167 174 182 190 204 215 226 233 245 259 417 646 890 435%

Persons 280 294 309 324 346 364 384 400 421 445 722 1109 1511 440%

Mermaid Beach Male 140 148 154 165 177 188 199 209 219 230 373 565 756 439%

Female 191 201 214 224 242 253 264 277 291 306 482 765 1038 445%

Persons 331 349 368 389 419 441 463 486 510 536 855 1329 1794 442%

Mirani Male 60 63 67 71 76 81 85 90 96 102 176 270 364 505%

Female 76 80 84 89 95 101 106 111 117 125 216 332 443 479%

Persons 137 143 151 161 171 182 192 202 212 226 392 603 807 490%

Moggill Male 64 69 72 77 84 90 97 100 106 110 184 286 387 505%

Female 108 113 118 123 131 137 144 149 158 166 255 359 454 322%

Persons 172 182 189 200 215 228 241 249 264 277 439 645 841 390%

Morayfield Male 66 73 80 87 94 103 111 119 128 138 254 412 570 769%

Female 77 83 91 98 108 118 127 135 146 158 291 487 675 775%




38

Persons 143 157 170 185 202 221 239 254 274 296 544 899 1245 772%

Mount Coot-Tha Male 44 46 47 48 52 55 57 58 61 64 108 163 217 396%

Female 88 89 90 92 95 97 101 103 107 111 169 256 334 279%

Persons 132 135 136 140 146 151 158 161 168 175 276 420 551 318%

Mount Isa Male 28 29 30 31 32 33 36 37 41 42 64 84 111 298%

Female 33 35 36 37 38 40 42 43 44 46 74 101 124 271%

Persons 61 63 66 68 70 73 78 80 85 88 138 185 234 283%

Mount Ommaney Male 75 79 83 88 94 99 105 109 115 120 196 289 379 402%

Female 148 149 153 159 166 175 180 186 192 201 299 450 596 303%

Persons 223 228 236 247 260 274 284 295 307 321 495 739 975 337%

Mudgeeraba Male 73 80 87 96 104 114 124 132 144 154 294 474 666 818%

Female 91 99 107 117 128 139 149 160 170 182 326 519 698 671%

Persons 163 179 194 213 232 253 273 292 313 336 620 993 1363 736%

Mulgrave Male 69 76 82 88 95 102 111 118 127 136 252 420 622 796%

Female 89 94 99 105 115 122 128 136 144 153 270 439 596 568%

Persons 159 170 181 193 210 224 239 254 271 289 523 859 1218 668%

Mundingburra Male 59 62 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 94 157 242 329 461%

Female 113 117 123 127 134 140 147 153 160 168 257 368 470 315%

Persons 172 179 188 195 207 217 228 238 248 262 414 610 799 365%

Murrumba Male 83 91 99 109 119 132 144 156 169 183 374 589 803 871%

Female 125 137 151 165 182 198 215 232 251 272 547 940 1293 931%

Persons 208 228 250 274 301 330 359 388 420 455 921 1529 2096 907%

Nanango Male 97 103 107 113 119 127 134 140 149 157 270 410 543 462%

Female 124 130 136 143 152 160 168 177 186 196 335 540 736 496%

Persons 220 232 242 257 272 288 303 318 335 353 604 950 1279 481%

Nicklin Male 89 94 98 104 111 120 126 133 141 150 265 407 540 507%

Female 133 139 147 155 166 177 187 198 210 222 374 599 824 520%

Persons 222 233 245 260 276 296 314 331 351 372 639 1006 1364 515%




39

Noosa Male 121 128 134 143 153 164 173 182 192 203 339 524 732 506%

Female 156 164 172 183 196 209 218 228 240 254 415 669 926 493%

Persons 277 292 306 326 349 372 391 410 431 457 754 1194 1659 498%

Nudgee Male 91 93 94 96 99 103 105 109 112 115 177 269 353 287%

Female 178 182 188 190 198 203 205 212 217 221 298 416 514 188%

Persons 269 275 282 286 297 305 310 321 329 336 475 685 867 222%

Pine Rivers Male 44 47 50 54 57 61 65 70 75 80 151 227 300 580%

Female 75 79 84 89 96 103 108 114 122 130 233 377 516 592%

Persons 119 126 134 143 153 164 173 184 197 210 384 604 815 587%

Pumicestone Male 140 151 160 172 185 200 214 227 241 256 428 668 904 545%

Female 195 207 222 238 257 273 288 306 324 346 566 894 1214 522%

Persons 335 358 382 409 442 473 502 533 566 602 993 1561 2118 532%

Redcliffe Male 119 126 131 137 147 156 166 173 180 188 295 454 610 410%

Female 218 223 229 237 251 261 269 278 289 303 433 645 844 288%

Persons 337 348 361 374 398 417 434 451 469 492 728 1099 1454 331%

Redlands Male 97 106 114 121 130 140 152 161 171 183 325 513 694 614%

Female 148 158 169 182 198 212 227 242 258 275 481 795 1120 657%

Persons 245 264 283 303 328 352 379 404 428 458 806 1309 1814 640%

Rockhampton Male 79 82 87 91 97 103 108 112 119 127 198 292 404 411%

Female 155 160 166 173 182 190 197 204 212 224 324 483 645 315%

Persons 234 243 253 264 280 293 305 317 331 350 522 776 1049 348%

Sandgate Male 77 80 83 86 90 94 99 102 107 112 188 277 357 365%

Female 154 159 164 172 180 188 193 199 205 214 320 486 643 317%

Persons 231 239 247 258 270 283 292 301 313 325 507 763 1001 333%

South Brisbane Male 65 68 70 73 76 79 82 84 88 91 140 204 265 305%

Female 133 136 136 137 140 143 146 149 153 157 233 351 457 242%

Persons 199 203 206 209 216 222 228 233 240 248 373 555 722 263%

Southern Downs Male 104 108 111 118 124 133 140 144 152 161 255 388 518 397%




40

Female 170 178 185 193 205 214 225 233 242 256 385 581 780 359%

Persons 274 286 296 311 330 347 365 377 394 416 640 969 1299 373%

Southport Male 92 96 101 107 114 120 127 134 141 148 248 387 524 471%

Female 170 175 182 190 203 214 221 228 238 249 395 621 858 403%

Persons 262 271 283 297 317 334 348 362 379 398 643 1008 1382 427%

Springwood Male 40 42 44 47 49 52 56 59 62 67 128 199 266 558%

Female 79 82 85 88 91 95 98 101 105 110 192 307 415 423%

Persons 120 124 129 135 140 147 153 159 167 176 320 506 681 469%

Stafford Male 73 75 75 77 81 85 86 89 91 94 122 163 203 177%

Female 164 166 170 174 181 185 186 189 192 196 244 328 400 143%

Persons 237 242 245 251 263 270 272 278 283 289 366 491 602 154%

Stretton Male 51 55 58 63 68 74 80 86 93 99 190 299 402 692%

Female 107 113 121 128 137 146 156 164 174 184 333 560 781 626%

Persons 158 168 179 191 205 221 237 250 267 283 524 858 1183 648%

Sunnybank Male 86 90 94 99 104 111 117 122 129 134 209 317 422 390%

Female 141 146 150 156 165 173 178 186 193 203 295 442 579 312%

Persons 227 236 244 255 269 284 296 308 322 337 504 759 1001 342%

Surfers Paradise Male 159 169 176 189 202 215 228 239 255 271 462 747 1062 566%

Female 228 238 251 263 284 300 314 325 340 358 578 933 1283 463%

Persons 387 407 427 452 486 516 542 565 596 630 1039 1680 2344 506%

Thuringowa Male 44 47 51 56 61 67 72 77 83 90 174 266 354 711%

Female 68 75 82 90 99 107 117 125 135 146 274 462 651 853%

Persons 112 123 133 146 160 174 189 202 218 235 448 728 1004 797%

Toowoomba North Male 95 101 107 112 120 128 136 142 150 159 273 423 569 498%

Female 167 174 183 191 204 216 226 236 248 263 406 625 826 395%

Persons 262 275 289 304 324 344 362 378 398 422 679 1049 1396 432%

Toowoomba South Male 110 117 124 133 144 156 167 174 184 196 334 537 785 613%

Female 219 226 237 249 268 282 296 307 322 339 509 789 1091 398%




41

Persons 329 343 361 382 412 437 462 481 507 535 843 1326 1876 470%

Townsville Male 74 76 76 78 81 84 88 89 91 95 151 217 278 278%

Female 115 117 122 126 131 134 139 143 148 152 244 363 463 301%

Persons 189 193 198 205 212 218 227 232 239 247 395 580 741 292%

Warrego Male 63 65 67 71 74 77 82 84 87 91 130 181 230 266%

Female 102 106 108 112 118 123 129 133 137 142 213 319 414 307%

Persons 164 171 175 183 192 200 210 217 225 234 343 501 644 291%

Waterford Male 64 67 70 74 78 83 88 92 98 104 179 258 334 424%

Female 111 118 125 131 140 147 155 163 171 181 300 467 613 451%

Persons 175 186 195 206 218 230 243 255 269 285 480 725 947 441%

Whitsunday Male 67 73 77 82 89 95 102 108 115 122 221 356 493 637%

Female 101 105 110 117 128 136 143 151 158 171 296 481 673 570%

Persons 167 178 187 199 216 231 245 259 273 293 517 837 1166 597%

Woodridge Male 41 44 46 49 52 55 60 64 69 74 128 185 256 520%

Female 56 58 60 63 67 70 74 79 83 88 157 244 340 507%

Persons 97 102 106 112 119 125 134 142 151 161 285 429 596 512%

Yeerongpilly Male 82 84 86 87 90 93 95 97 99 100 138 197 256 211%

Female 141 143 146 149 153 155 157 160 163 167 218 286 341 142%







3.4 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE BY HEALTH SERVICE DISTRICTS

The prevalence and incidence of dementia is expected to grow substantially throughout each Health Service District (HSD). In 2011, Metro South is estimated to have around 9,905 people with dementia, ranking first in terms of dementia prevalence, while Torres Strait – Northern Peninsula is estimated to have the lowest estimated number of people with dementia, with around 40 cases. In 2050, it is expected that Metro South will continue to have the highest number of people with dementia with around 39,198 cases, while Torres Strait – Northern Peninsula will continue to have the least number of people with dementia with around 130 cases. The average growth in prevalence, across all HSDs between 2011 and 2050, is estimated at around 312%, with the most rapid growth expected in West Moreton, at almost 498%, with Central West experiencing the least growth, at around 121%. Chart 3.6 to Chart 3.8 shows dementia prevalence by the top 10 HSDs in 2010, 2030 and 2050 respectively. Detailed dementia prevalence and incidence projections can be found in Table 3.13 and Table 3.14.

Chart 3.6: Dementia prevalence in 2011, by top 10 HSDs

0510152025303540








0510152025303540



0510152025303540





45

Table 3.13: Dementia Prevalence in Health Service Districts

Division Gender 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 Change Metro South Male 3914 4113 4305 4508 4730 4962 5212 5445 5697 5961 9173 12733 16192 314%

Female 5991 6212 6431 6657 6900 7167 7433 7697 7981 8286 12480 17981 23005 284%

Persons 9905 10325 10736 11165 11630 12129 12645 13142 13678 14247 21653 30714 39198 296%

Metro North Male 3639 3827 4007 4188 4390 4614 4839 5073 5307 5547 8681 12279 15736 332%

Female 5685 5889 6099 6323 6579 6821 7070 7335 7618 7908 11908 17177 21899 285%

Persons 9324 9717 10106 10512 10968 11435 11910 12407 12925 13455 20589 29456 37635 304%

Children’s Health Services Male 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Female 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gold Coast Male 2891 3053 3208 3383 3564 3759 3964 4159 4368 4583 7235 10336 13417 364%

Female 3836 4027 4222 4424 4646 4876 5098 5319 5557 5799 9036 13296 17216 349%

Persons 6727 7080 7430 7806 8210 8635 9062 9477 9925 10382 16271 23632 30633 355%

Darling Downs Male 1475 1543 1610 1687 1767 1851 1941 2020 2113 2203 3290 4560 5823 295%

Female 2135 2212 2289 2374 2473 2571 2674 2770 2870 2986 4368 6240 7969 273%

Persons 3610 3755 3898 4061 4240 4422 4615 4790 4984 5190 7658 10800 13791 282%

Sunshine Coast Male 2373 2526 2676 2841 3015 3204 3393 3585 3783 3999 6521 9574 12723 436%

Female 3122 3307 3503 3699 3914 4132 4363 4591 4828 5092 8337 12674 17000 444%

Persons 5496 5832 6179 6540 6929 7336 7756 8176 8611 9091 14858 22249 29723 441%

Wide Bay Male 1408 1487 1568 1653 1745 1837 1936 2037 2135 2247 3524 5031 6556 366%

Female 1776 1869 1962 2057 2168 2282 2410 2519 2639 2774 4431 6583 8746 392%

Persons 3184 3356 3530 3710 3913 4120 4346 4555 4774 5021 7955 11613 15302 381%

Central Queensland Male 765 802 845 888 934 979 1029 1081 1131 1188 1843 2578 3336 336%

Female 1051 1098 1142 1189 1240 1293 1350 1408 1463 1529 2386 3504 4597 337%

Persons 1816 1900 1987 2077 2174 2272 2378 2489 2594 2717 4229 6082 7932 337%

Townsville Male 938 983 1026 1069 1118 1167 1225 1278 1335 1397 2135 2902 3625 286%




46

Female 1318 1375 1433 1495 1560 1625 1699 1767 1841 1920 2925 4228 5396 310% Persons 2256 2358 2459 2564 2677 2792 2924 3046 3176 3316 5060 7130 9021 300%

Mackay Male 632 668 703 742 783 826 873 921 969 1018 1647 2371 3087 388% Female 791 825 861 901 951 998 1043 1094 1144 1205 1958 2889 3791 379% Persons 1424 1493 1564 1643 1733 1824 1916 2015 2113 2224 3605 5260 6879 383%

Cairns and Hinterland Male 988 1047 1104 1168 1233 1299 1376 1449 1529 1613 2587 3725 5004 407% Female 1196 1253 1315 1379 1454 1526 1601 1678 1757 1843 2977 4398 5659 373% Persons 2184 2301 2419 2546 2687 2825 2977 3127 3286 3456 5564 8123 10663 388%

Torres Strait - Northern Peninsula Male 17 18 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 31 43 57 228% Female 23 23 24 24 24 26 26 27 29 28 43 60 74 221% Persons 40 41 41 42 42 45 45 48 49 50 73 103 130 224%

Cape York Male 29 31 31 32 34 35 37 37 38 41 70 92 114 288% Female 22 21 21 22 24 26 28 29 31 34 55 72 88 303% Persons 51 52 53 55 58 60 64 66 70 75 124 164 201 295%

Mount Isa Male 66 68 70 71 73 74 77 81 85 88 122 150 187 181% Female 74 76 79 82 83 86 89 91 93 96 148 196 236 218%

Persons 140 144 148 153 156 160 167 172 178 185 270 347 422 201%

Central West Male 59 60 61 62 64 66 69 69 70 73 90 103 119 102% Female 68 71 72 71 73 76 80 80 80 82 108 138 161 137% Persons 127 131 133 133 137 142 148 149 150 155 198 240 280 121%

South West Male 108 112 115 120 124 126 131 134 138 142 183 231 278 157% Female 160 168 172 179 184 190 196 202 207 212 286 397 494 208% Persons 269 281 287 299 308 316 327 336 345 354 469 628 772 187%

West Moreton Male 914 973 1035 1096 1168 1250 1336 1418 1503 1599 2787 4147 5493 501% Female 1207 1266 1331 1400 1478 1558 1649 1743 1841 1954 3436 5345 7196 496% Persons 2121 2239 2366 2497 2647 2808 2986 3161 3344 3554 6223 9492 12689 498% Source: Deloitte Access Economic calculations.




47

Table 3.14: Dementia Incidence in Health Districts

Division Gender 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 Change Metro South Male 1380 1460 1530 1616 1718 1827 1939 2028 2140 2261 3785 5690 7598 450%

Female 2447 2544 2658 2774 2928 3072 3193 3320 3461 3635 5742 8922 11986 390%

Persons 3828 4003 4188 4389 4645 4899 5132 5348 5601 5896 9527 14612 19583 412%

Metro North Male 1292 1368 1432 1509 1604 1713 1812 1905 2007 2115 3617 5594 7531 483%

Female 2329 2421 2530 2645 2808 2940 3052 3185 3331 3497 5503 8525 11354 387%

Persons 3621 3789 3962 4154 4412 4653 4865 5090 5338 5612 9120 14119 18885 422%

Children’s Health Services Male 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Female 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Persons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

Gold Coast Male 1074 1144 1202 1284 1376 1471 1565 1643 1741 1845 3141 4878 6666 521%

Female 1558 1645 1744 1847 1984 2110 2212 2318 2439 2574 4207 6685 9074 483%

Persons 2632 2789 2945 3132 3360 3581 3777 3961 4180 4419 7349 11563 15741 498%

Darling Downs Male 525 552 577 614 653 696 738 769 813 857 1405 2133 2892 451%

Female 870 905 944 989 1054 1109 1162 1207 1262 1332 2050 3153 4226 386%

Persons 1395 1456 1521 1603 1707 1805 1900 1977 2075 2190 3455 5286 7118 410%

Sunshine Coast Male 867 932 991 1070 1159 1254 1342 1425 1521 1630 2917 4693 6618 664%

Female 1275 1361 1460 1562 1693 1814 1928 2041 2167 2323 4043 6711 9552 649%

Persons 2142 2293 2452 2632 2853 3067 3270 3466 3687 3952 6960 11404 16170 655%

Wide Bay Male 497 531 563 602 648 692 739 780 826 880 1514 2369 3265 557%

Female 714 755 802 851 917 978 1042 1093 1154 1233 2104 3412 4824 575%

Persons 1212 1287 1364 1452 1565 1670 1780 1872 1980 2114 3618 5781 8088 568%

Central Queensland Male 262 277 294 313 335 356 378 399 421 448 750 1152 1581 505%

Female 424 445 467 492 525 553 581 610 637 676 1111 1771 2462 481%

Persons 685 722 761 805 860 909 959 1009 1058 1123 1861 2922 4043 490%

Townsville Male 312 329 343 360 379 399 422 440 462 487 807 1174 1526 389%




48

Female 514 538 566 596 631 663 697 728 765 807 1298 2013 2690 423% Persons 826 867 908 956 1010 1062 1119 1168 1227 1294 2105 3187 4215 410%

Mackay Male 216 230 242 260 279 298 318 336 357 378 669 1062 1455 575% Female 313 328 345 365 395 420 441 465 489 524 890 1418 1969 529% Persons 529 558 587 625 674 719 758 801 845 902 1559 2480 3424 548%

Cairns and Hinterland Male 345 369 391 419 451 482 518 548 585 627 1114 1785 2594 653% Female 467 491 518 546 587 621 654 688 723 766 1298 2057 2751 489% Persons 812 860 908 966 1038 1104 1172 1235 1308 1393 2411 3842 5345 558% Torres Strait - Northern Peninsula Male 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 11 19 28 414% Female 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 17 24 29 283% Persons 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 28 43 57 337%

Cape York Male 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 21 31 40 429% Female 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 18 23 29 320% Persons 15 15 15 15 16 17 19 19 21 22 39 54 69 377%

Mount Isa Male 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 29 30 44 58 79 299% Female 27 28 29 31 31 33 34 35 36 37 59 82 100 270%

Persons 47 48 50 52 54 56 59 61 64 67 103 140 179 282%

Central West Male 18 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 23 24 31 37 46 154% Female 24 25 26 25 27 28 30 30 30 31 43 58 69 187% Persons 42 44 45 44 46 49 52 52 53 55 74 95 115 173%

South West Male 36 38 39 41 44 45 48 48 50 53 73 100 126 246% Female 62 65 67 70 74 77 80 83 86 89 129 195 255 313% Persons 98 104 106 112 118 122 128 132 137 141 202 295 381 288%

West Moreton Male 315 337 359 384 417 453 491 521 557 601 1150 1883 2619 732% Female 481 504 532 564 607 645 685 728 772 831 1552 2649 3783 687% Persons 795 841 891 949 1023 1098 1176 1248 1329 1431 2702 4531 6402 705%







4 MAPPING OF DEMENTIA PREVALENCE 4.1 FEDERAL ELECTORAL DIVISIONS

Figure 4.2: Dementia prevalence in Federal Electoral Divisions 2011

2011 Dementia Prevalence

> 10,000

8,000 to 10,000

6,000 to 8,000

4,000 to 6,000

2,000 to 4,000

0 to 2,000

Source: Deloitte Access Economics.








> 10,000

8,000 to 10,000

6,000 to 8,000

4,000 to 6,000

2,000 to 4,000

0 to 2,000









> 10,000

8,000 to 10,000

6,000 to 8,000

4,000 to 6,000

2,000 to 4,000

0 to 2,000







4.2 STATE ELECTORAL DISTRICTS

Figure 4.5: Dementia prevalence in State Electoral Districts 2011


> 4,500

3,500 to 4,500

2,500 to 3,500

1,500 to 2,500

500 to 1,500

0 to 500









> 4,500

3,500 to 4,500

2,500 to 3,500

1,500 to 2,500

500 to 1,500

0 to 500









> 4,500

3,500 to 4,500

2,500 to 3,500

1,500 to 2,500

500 to 1,500

0 to 500







4.3 HEALTH SERVICE DISTRICTS

Figure 4.8: Dementia prevalence in Health Service Districts 2011


> 30,000

25,000 to 30,000

20,000 to 25,000

15,000 to 20,000

10,000 to 15,000

5,000 to 10,000

0 to 5,000









> 30,000

25,000 to 30,000

20,000 to 25,000

15,000 to 20,000

10,000 to 15,000

5,000 to 10,000

0 to 5,000









> 30,000

25,000 to 30,000

20,000 to 25,000

15,000 to 20,000

10,000 to 15,000

5,000 to 10,000

0 to 5,000







APPENDIX A Table 4.15: Federal Electoral Divisions

Blair Flynn Maranoa Bonner Forde McPherson Bowman Griffith Moncrieff Brisbane Groom Moreton Capricornia Herbert Oxley Dawson Hinkler Petrie Dickson Kennedy Rankin Fadden Leichhardt Ryan Fairfax Lilley Wide Bay Fisher Longman Wright Source: Australian Electoral Commission.

Table 4.16: State Electoral Districts

Albert Cook Lytton Redlands Algester Coomera Mackay Rockhampton Ashgrove Currumbin Mansfield Sandgate Aspley Dalrymple Maroochydore South Brisbane Barron River Everton Maryborough Southern Downs Beaudesert Ferny Grove Mermaid Beach Southport Brisbane Central Gaven Mirani Springwood Broadwater Gladstone Moggill Stafford Buderim Glass House Morayfield Stretton Bulimba Greenslopes Mount Coot-Tha Sunnybank Bundaberg Gregory Mount Isa Surfers Paradise Bundamba Gympie Mount Ommaney Thuringowa Burdekin Hervey Bay Mudgeeraba Toowoomba North Burleigh Hinchinbrook Mulgrave Toowoomba South Burnett Inala Mundingburra Townsville Cairns Indooroopilly Murrumba Warrego Callide Ipswich Nanango Waterford Caloundra Ipswich West Nicklin Whitsunday Capalaba Kallangur Noosa Woodridge Chatsworth Kawana Nudgee Yeerongpilly Clayfield Keppel Pine Rivers Cleveland Lockyer Pumicestone Condamine Logan Redcliffe

Source: Electoral Commission Queensland.






Table 4.17: Health Service Districts

Metro South Wide Bay Cape York Metro North Central Queensland Mount Isa Children’s Health Services Townsville Central West Gold Coast Mackay South West Darling Downs Cairns and Hinterland West Moreton Sunshine Coast Torres Strait - Northern

Peninsula

Source: Queensland Health.






REFERENCES Access Economics 2011, ‘Caring Places: planning for aged care and dementia 2010-

2050 Volume 2’, Report for Alzheimer’s Australia, http://www.alzheimers.org.au/common/files/NAT/20110225_Nat_AE_CaringPlacesV2.pdf, accessed 21 June 2011.

- 2009, ‘Keeping dementia front of mind: incidence and prevalence 2009-2050’, http://www.alzheimers.org.au/content.cfm?infopageid=6012, accessed 03 March 2010.

- 2007, ‘Dementia Estimates and Projections: Queensland and its Regions’, Report for Alzheimer’s Australia Qld, available at http://www.accesseconomics.com.au/publicationsreports/getreport.php?report=171&id=218, accessed 21 June 2011.

- 2006, ‘Dementia prevalence and incidence among Australians who do not speak English at home’, http://www.accesseconomics.com.au/, accessed 03 March 2010.

- 2005, ‘Dementia estimates and projections: Australian states and territories’, http://www.accesseconomics.com.au/, accessed 03 March 2010.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) 2008, ‘Australia’s health 2008’, Cat. no. AUS 99, Canberra.

Barendregt, J, 2004, ‘DISMOD Workshop on practical aspects of conducting a burden of disease and injury study’, Brisbane, November-December 2004.

Corrada, MM, Brookmeyer, R, Berlau, D, Paganini-Hill, A, Kawas, CH 2008, ‘Prevalence of dementia after age 90. Results from the 90+ study’, Neurology, 71: 337-343.

Dementia Collaborative Research Centres 2007, ‘Dementia risk reduction: The evidence’, Alzheimer’s Australia Paper No. 13, http://www.alzheimers.org.au/upload/RiskReductionSept07.pdf, accessed 04 March 2010.

Department of Health and Ageing 2006, ‘Dementia – A national health priority’ Dementia research mapping project, Australian Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra.

Deloitte Access Economics, ‘Updated dementia prevalence estimates’, Report for Alzheimer’s Australia.

Harvey, RJ, Skelton-Robinson, M, and Rossor, MN 2003, ‘The prevalence and causes of dementia in people under the age of 65 years’, Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry, 74: 1206-1209

Lucca, U, Garri, M, Nobili, A, Pasina, L, Gandini, F, Riva, E, Tettamanti, M 2009, ‘Risk of dementia continues to rise in the oldest old: The Monzino 80-plus study’, Alzheimer’s & Dementia, 5: 381.



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Documents

PROJECTIONS OF DEMENTIA PREVALENCE AND INCIDENCE IN ... · Projections of dementia prevalence and incidence in Qld are shown in Chart 1.1 and Chart 1.2. Chart 1.1: Prevalence of dementia