Prometheus, you are glad that you have outwitted me and stolen fire...but I will give men as the price for fire an evil thing in which they may all be glad of heart while they embrace their own destruction.

-- Zeus to Prometheus, Hesiod, Works and Days 55

Energy Transitions: An Overview Cutler J. Cleveland

Dept. of Geography and EnvironmentPardee Center for the Study of the Longer Range Future

Boston University

Energy Transition

A particularly significant set of changes to the patterns of energy use in a society

Changes in sources (wood to coal)

Changes in society (rural to urban; affluence)

Changes in environment (deforestation to climate change)

Changes in convertors (lamps and candles to light bulb)

U.S. Energy Transitions

0

25

50

75

100

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

wood

animal feed

coal

oil

gas

electricity

Per

cen

t o

f to

tal

ener

gy

use

OutlineOutline1. Energy transitions are social transitions.

a. Energy and economic well-being go hand-in-hand.

b. These transitions take a long time

1. Energy transitions are social transitions.

a. Energy and economic well-being go hand-in-hand.

b. These transitions take a long time

3. Energy is a fundamental driver of environmental change and human health at local, regional, and global scales.3. Energy is a fundamental driver of environmental change and human health at local, regional, and global scales.

5. We must engineer and manage the next energy transition.5. We must engineer and manage the next energy transition.

4. The transition from oil and carbon is unlike all previous transitions.4. The transition from oil and carbon is unlike all previous transitions.

Energy & Economic Growth

Energy & Economic GrowthEnergy & Economic Growth

U.S. Electricity Generation by Source

Energy and Climate

© 2003 Cutler J. Cleveland

The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation(after Hubbert, 1969)

0-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5

Iron inMiddleEast

StonehengeBuilt

Parthenoncompleted

Pyramidsconstructed

Mayanculture

Inquisition

BlackDeath

Magellan'sCircumnavigation

Steam Engine

100

200

300

Tri

llio

n k

wh

per

yea

r

Conditions for the Next Transition

1. The environmental frontier is closed.

2. Scale of transition is large.

3. Quality of alternatives is generally lower.

4. Energy markets drive decisions.

5. Practical and ethical imperative to reduce poverty.