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Prospective Immigration to Israel Through Prospective Immigration to Israel Through 2030: Methodological Issues and 2030: Methodological Issues and
ChallengesChallenges
Nitzan Peri and Sofia PhrenCentral Bureau of Statistics, Israel
Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic ProjectionsLisbon, April 28-30, 2010
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Objectives
To estimate the number of immigrants expected to arrive in Israel during the next two decades. Identifying sources and motivations to
immigrate to Israel. Defining difficulties in projecting
immigration to Israel. Describing the implications of
immigration on the Israeli population.
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The Immigration to Israel
The majority of immigrants arriving in Israel are Jewish, also arriving are their non-Jewish family relatives, who immigrate under the Law of Return (1950).
The immigration to Israel also includes: Immigrating citizens – A person, born to an Israeli
citizen during his/her stay abroad, who enters Israel with an intention to settle.
Family reunification – A person who receives permanent resident status in Israel under the Law of Entry (1952). In most cases these are non-Jewish spouses or first kin of citizens or permanent residents of Israel.
Not included: foreign workers, students and refugees.
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Year of immigration
Abs
olut
e nu
mbe
rs
Not known Europe-AmericaAfrica **Asia
*Excluding immigrating citizens and Family Reunif ication.** As of 1995, "Asia" also includes immigrants born in the Asian republics of the FSU.
Immigrants* by Year of Immigration and Last Continent of Residence , 1948-2008
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The Share of Net Migration of the Total
Population Growth 1948-2008
35%
62%80%
94%
50%
82%
65%
38%20%
6%
50%
18%
1948-1960 1961-1971 1972-1982 1983-1989 1990-1999 2000-2008
Natural Increase Migration Balance
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Determinants of Immigration to Israel
A large share of the Jewish immigration to Israel was dominated by “push” factors, such as national and religious persecutions and economic crises.
“Pull” factors, such as religious and Zionistic ideology have also played an important role, especially among immigrants from Western Europe and North America.
In some cases, immigration is dependant on political factors, which are particularly hard to predict – For example the immigration of nearly one million people from the former Soviet Union in the 1990s.
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Actual and Projected Population of Israel, 1985-2005
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Main Sources of Immigration (2004-2008)
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Building Assumptions
The assumptions for the immigration projection were based on recent trends of immigration to Israel and estimates of the Jewish population outside Israel, which constitutes the main source of immigration to Israel.
Three different scenarios (high, medium and low) are specified for each major source of immigration.
The total prospective immigration to Israel is the sum of the high, medium and low scenarios of each source.
The projections are sub-divided into five years periods from 2006 through 2030.
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Prospective Immigration to Israel 2006-2030 Source of Immigration
ProjectionsAlternatives 2006-2010
First Period2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030
Last Period2006-2030
Total
Total Immigration
HighMediumLow
129,000125,000108,50093,000
122,000100,50083,000
123,00094,50074,000
124,00089,50065,000
623,000522,000444,000
Former Soviet Union
HighMediumLow
33,00030,00026,00021,000
27,00020,00015,000
24,00015,00010,000
21,00010,0005,000
135,000104,00084,000
United States and France
HighMediumLow
21,00023,00018,00016,000
25,00018,00015,000
27,00018,00014,000
29,00018,00013,000
125,00093,00079,000
EthiopiaHighMediumLow
15,0005,0003,000
-
1,0001,000
-
1,000--
1,000--
23,00019,00015,000
ArgentinaHighMediumLow
1,0006,0003,5001,000
6,0003,5001,000
6,0003,5001,000
6,0003,5001,000
25,00015,0005,000
Other Countries
HighMediumLow
16,00016,00016,00014,000
16,00016,00012,000
16,00016,00010,000
16,00016,0008,000
80,00080,00060,000
Immigrating Citizens
HighMediumLow
18,00019,00018,00018,000
20,00018,00018,000
21,00018,00018,000
22,00018,00018,000
100,00090,00090,000
Family Reunification
HighMediumLow
25,00026,00024,00023,000
27,00024,00022,000
28,00024,00021,000
29,00024,00020,000
135,000121,000111,000
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Total Immigration to Israel, 1981-2030
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Conclusions and Future Implications
The number of immigrants arriving in Israel will continue to decrease in the coming decades, both in absolute terms and in relation to the total population of Israel.
The share of net migration of total population growth will be reduced to the low levels that were recorded in the 1980s (only 6%).
Political and social factors might cause an unexpected change in the current trend, however, an event of mass immigration to Israel is not likely to repeat itself.
