Prospects for Food & Water Availability and Quality

A view based on Climate Change

Let's AvoidClimate Change

Climate Change is Happening

Mitigation Effects/Adaptation

Bruce A. McCarlDistinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University

mccarl@tamu.edu, http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl

Presented at a meeting on Megaregions + MetroProsperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle

During panel on Food & water: Are we secure? Houston, September 24, 2009

Coverage

Do we have a food issue now?

What will climate change do to food?

What will climate change due to water?FreshSea level

What are challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation

Do we have a food issue now?

The Texas Megaregion is Food Deficit and has no prospects of being any other way. We import.

As a state we are food surplus likely only in cotton ( 30%)

beef (16%)wheat (5-7%)Broilers (6%)

None of these are big enough in triangle area

201020082006200420022000199819960.3

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1997-2008

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-0.2

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Global Mean Tempererature

NCDC Global Land+OceanTemperature Anomaly Relative to 20th Century Avg

Date

Tem

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(°C

)Some say recent data shows this is over

Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)

19981996199419921990198819860.1

0.2

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1987-1996

201020082006200420022000199819960.3

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1997-2008

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0.8

Global Mean Tempererature

NCDC Global Land+OceanTemperature Anomaly Relative to 20th Century Avg

Date

Tem

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(°C

)

Ups and downs in global atmospheric temperatures over a decade are not easy to interpret

Global Average Climate Change

19901985198019750.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1977-1989

Easterling, D. R., and M. F. Wehner (2009),Is the climate warming or cooling?, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30 March 2009)

Precipitation is increasing but not here

Amount from wet days is increasing

Subtropics forecast to be drier

Degree of climate change Precipitation

• Less water

Degree of climate change - What is projected

Texas in relatively severely affected area

Nationally more crops – Texas 25% less acresCold limited acres CO2 effect

Source McCarl work for US National Assessment

Table 2 National crop sensitivity over all crops giving average yield change in percent to 2030 -- GCM behind Climate Scenario -- Hadley Canadian CSIRO REGCM Corn Belt 24.02 18.23 6.05 6.58 Great Plains 25.29 17.28 3.67 4.82 Lake States 43.75 53.03 9.34 11.84 Northeast 9.48 -2.07 2.13 4.45 Rocky Mountains 27.74 19.37 18.27 15.04 Pacific Southwest 17.76 21.44 15.58 15.05 Pacific Northwest 65.42 17.01 17.22 18.30 South Central 13.25 -6.06 -0.71 -0.79 Southeast 10.00 -3.16 3.84 2.40 South West 21.66 14.69 3.38 2.60National 25.14 16.51 6.02 6.46 Red signifies results below mean

http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/778.pdf

Live with it - Agriculture

IPCC 0.18-0.6 meters (no ice melt)Greenland 7 metersAntarctica 55 metersScenarios 1-5 meters

Houston 13 meters

Sea Level – Coastal

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html

http://www.glo.state.tx.us/coastal/erosion/reimbursement/pdf/Surfside_Beach_historic_shorelines.pdf

Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO2

1985 - 345 this is increase almost doubles2007 - 380+

Mitigation of climate change Why is this happening

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

Climate change mitigation – Texas and GHGs

0.0

100.0200.0

300.0400.0

500.0

600.0700.0

800.0

AL

AR

AZ

CA

CO

CT

DC

DE

FL

GA

HI

IA

ID

IL

IN

KS

KY

LA

MA

MD

ME

MI

MN

MO

MS

MT

NC

ND

NE

NH

NJ

NM

NV

NY

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TX

UT

VA

VT

WA

WI

WV

WY

US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins

US EPA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html

Most emissions from energy Emissions growing

Why Adapt - Inevitability

500

600

700

800

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

Global mean temp. increase

at equilibrium (ºC)

Year CO2 needs to peak

Year CO2 emissions back at

2000 level

Reduction in 2050 CO2 emissions compared to

2000

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60

710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85

855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140

Basic Resources

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, http://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007: Mitigation , http://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - The Scientific Basis, http://www.ipcc.ch/.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/.

National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview: 2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm

National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Foundation: 2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm

http://agecon.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl/papers.htm