Prospects of creating a CDM project pipeline in the

Philippines

3rd Asian Regional Workshop on CD4CDM

23rd March 2004Siem Reap, Cambodia

Contents

1. Emissions inventory2. Carbon mitigation potential3. Renewable energy plans4. LULUCF potential5. Potential projects starting to

enter the pipeline

1. Emissions inventory

1994 Greenhouse Gas Inventory

GHG Emissions from the Energy Sector

GHG Emissions from the Industrial Sector

GHG Emissions from the Agriculture Sector

GHG Emissions from the Waste Sector

GHG Emissions and Sinks in the LUCF Sector

2. Carbon mitigation potentials

Power Generation Mix

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

GW

h

Others

Biomass

Geothermal

Hydro

Natural Gas

Coal

Diesel

Fuel Oil

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Natural GasGeothermalOilCoal

CO2 Emissions from Energy Sector (PEP 2001 – 2011)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

DSM

Efficiency/EnergyLabelling

HRI

System LossReduction

Govt. ENERCONProgram

EnergyManagementServices

Potential CO2 Avoidance from Energy Efficiency Programs (PEP 2001 – 2011)

CDM POTENTIAL PROJECTSCDM POTENTIAL PROJECTS Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas

Abatement Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)Strategy (ALGAS) analyzed mitigation of 12 Asian countries, including the Philippines Philippine project priority areas:

energy transport agriculture wastes

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

0 3 6 9 12 15

Annual CO2 Reduction Potential (mill t CO2)

Aba

tem

ent Cos

t (U

S $

/ton

CO

2)

Source: ALGAS

PhilippineGHG Abatement Cost

and Potential

Abatement OptionAbatement Potential

(mill t CO2/year)Abatement Cost(US $ / ton CO2)

CFL 1.10 -26.3Industrial Boilers 0.37 -26.0System Loss Reduction 2.32 -17.2Industrial Motors 0.24 -13.7Eff Air Conditioning 1.47 -6.1Eff Refrigerators 0.37 -5.4Heat Rate Improvement 5.26 -5.1Eff Transport 1.34 -2.9Wind Power 0.24 -1.6Biomass Power 0.12 0.3Solar Power 0.12 1.4CC Natural Gas 1.83 2.4

MINDORO ISLAND-ORIENTAL13,500 kW

MARINDUQUE ISLAND 3,000 kW

CUYO ISLAND 330 kW

BUSUANGA ISLAND 330 kW

PALAWAN ISLAND 9,000 kW

LUBANG ISLAND 330 kW

SIQUIJOR ISLAND 1,000 kW

SPECIFIC WIND POTENTIAL POWER SITES

CATANDUANES 2,250 kW

TABLAS ISLAND 1,500 kW

ROMBLON ISLAND1,000 kW

MASBATE ISLAND 3,000 kW

DINAGAT ISLAND3,000 kW

POLILLO ISLAND 500 kW

CASIGURAN500 kWNORTHERN LUZON

120 MW

BATANES1,100 KW

POTENTIAL CAPACITY:

160,340 kW

Solar Energy Resource Potential

Average insolation of 5- 6 kWh/sq. m/day all throughout the country

1990-2025 Equivalent CO2 Emissions from

Municipal Solid Waste Generation (million tons)

5.45

18.97

24.15

30.78

10.499.19

7.335.86

12.1214.23

16.86

20.01

9.87

7.33

12.11

15.04

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

constantgenerationrates

changinggenerationrates

3. Renewable energy plans

Philippine Energy PlanDepartment of Energy

NPC Generation : 29,447.58 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 47%NPC Generation : 29,447.58 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 47%

OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SECTOR1st Nine Months Y-O-Y NPC Power Generation

NPC Generation : 27,917.41 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 45%NPC Generation : 27,917.41 GWhRenewable Power Mix: 45%

2002 2003

Increase RE-based capacity by 100% by 2012

Be the No.1 geothermal energy producer in the world

Be the No. 1 wind energy producer in SE Asia

Double hydro capacity by 2012

New contribution of biomass, solar and ocean by 131 MW

Become a regional solar manufacturing export hub

Increase non-power contribution of RE to the energy mix by 10 MMBFOE within the next ten years

RE POLICY FRAMEWORKLong – Term Objectives

2002 Target Add’l. 2013 Capacity

Geothermal 1,931 1,200 3,131

Hydro 2,518 2,950 5,468

Wind 0 417 417

Solar, Biomass, Ocean 0 131 131

TOTAL 4,449 4,698 9,147

RE POLICY FRAMEWORK10 – Year Targets, MW

4. LULUCF potential

Potential CDM forestry projects

1. Reforestation and tree plantations• could easily meet requirements for additionality

2. Agroforestry and community forestry• greatest socio-economic benefits• risks may be greater

3. Dendrothermal power plants• Ipil-ipil fed power plants

Forest land cover distribution in the Phillippines (total area= 15.9 M ha) (Source: Lasco and Pulhin, 2000; FMB, 1996)

Protection forest17%

Secondary forest18%

Grasslands 13%

Brushlands15%

Plantations3%

Upland farms34%

“CDM”able Forest Lands

CDM

CDM CDM

Potential forest lands for CDM

• those the need to be permanently forested: critical watersheds, forest reserves, IPAS sites (4.6 M ha)

• degraded land areas: 3.5 M ha

Present Land Cover of Upper Magat Watershed (in ha)Total Area= 227,919 ha

129,594 (57%)

57,133 (25%)

7,809 (3%)18,094 (8%)15,289 (7%)

Built-up/Open land

Forest

Grassland

Non-tree agriculture

Secondary forest/tree plantationn

Lasco and Pulhin, 2003

Example of Degraded Watershed

Imperata grasslands cover > 2 M ha

5. Potential projects starting to enter the pipeline

Potential projects

• Being considered by World Bank Prototype Carbon Fund

• Endorsed by the Philippine Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change

• Received “Letter of No Objection” from the Secretary of the Department of Environment & Natural Resources

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTSNorthwind Wind Power

Northwind Wind Power Project

Project site located in Bangui, Ilocos Norte

Total installed capacity of 25.5 MW

Estimated emission reduction potential of 76,218 tCO2e annually

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTSTalisay Cogeneration Plant

Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane

Host facility is First Farmers Holding Corporation (FFHC)

Consists of 2 x 85 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg and 480°C and a single condensing steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 30 MW

Estimated emission reduction potential 54,457 to 133,466 tCO2e annually

POTENTIAL CDM PROJECTSVictorias Bagasse Cogeneration

Proposed cogeneration plant to utilize waste product of sugar cane

To be located at the Victorias Milling facility

Consists of 2 x 160 t/h boilers delivering steam at 65 barg & 480°C & a single back pressure steam turbine generator unit with a rating of 50 MW

Emission reduction potential 71,329 to 182,896 tCO2e annually

Maraming salamat!!

• Roberto C. Yap, Ph.D.Environmental Economistklima – Climate Change CenterManila ObservatoryPhilippinesTel +63 2 426-6144Fax +63 2 426-6070rcyap@ateneo.edu