Public Opinion

“Government for the people, by the people”

• Except….• We don’t have a balanced budget• The Equal Rights Amendment did not pass• School bussing programs continued.• No meaningful campaign finance reform• Lax gun control laws

All of these policies are supported by a majority of the people

Public Opinion vs. Public Policy

• The purpose of the United States Government was not to have “popular rule.”

• The founders looked for substantive goals and public opinion was just one of the options to get there

• Federalism and a large republic contains many “publics” that don’t reach the needed consensus.

What is Public Opinion?

Although the definition is simple understanding how it works and what goes into

it is often overlooked.

Qualities of Public Opinion

• Intensity/Saliency– Most public opinion polls do a bad job at

measuring how strongly somebody feels about an issue.

What do you think the percentage of people who believe abortion should

be available in some form in the United States?

Saliency can influence perception of public opinion by making it appear one side has a stronger numerical

base. In addition a smaller, intense group may have a better chance of

influencing policy than a larger non-intense group

Qualities of Public Opinion?

• Stability and Fluidity–The rate at which public opinion shifts

over time. Any opinion that stays around the same over a long period of time is said to be stable. Any opinion that dramatically changes over a long (or short) period of time is said to be fluid

Stable Opinion:Abortion

Fluid Opinion:War In Iraq

Qualities of Public Opinion

• Distribution–The typical American public opinion is

distributed over many different positions (most issues do not have just two sides to it). Distribution can tell politicians how much compromise is possible on a particular issue

Reliance on Polling

Public Opinion Polling

• Qualities of a valid public opinion poll• Random Sample• A sample in which every element in a population has an

equal chance of being selected

• Questions must be comprehensible• People make up answers to questions they cannot

understand

• Questions must be fair• Cannot contain loaded language (push polling) that can

influence responses

Public Opinion Polling

• Keep In Mind– Sampling Error: In particular in close races» For a population over 500,000 pollsters need to

make about 15,000 calls to reach 1,065 respondents to get a poll with a +/- error of 3%

– Lack of responses hurts accuracy• Impact of Polls– Bandwagon Effect– Donations to Candidates– Voter Turnout