Public Opinion

The Role of Citizen Attitudes and Beliefs in Democracy

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• What is public opinion and what is its role in a democracy?

• What is ideology and its role in a democracy?

• What are the major modern ideologies?

• What are the differences between American liberals and American conservatives?

• Where do people get their ideologies and opinions?

Public Opinion• Public Opinion: The aggregate of citizen preferences and

judgments about the decisions and policies of government officials.

• Political Efficacy: the confidence that people have that their opinions and actions influence the government.

• Ideology: a set of organized and coherent beliefs and opinions usually related to politics, public policy and the economy that form a general philosophy.

• Specific Issues

Responsiveness: the extent to which governmental policy matches the preferred policies of the public.

Responsiveness

• Responsiveness: the extent to which governmental policy matches the preferred policies of the public.

• Which public?• democracy vs. republic• Pluralism• The case against responsiveness

Responsiveness, democracy and a republic

Some Major Modern Ideologies

• “Right-wing” Ideologies– Conservatism: – Fascism: – Libertarianism:

Some Major Modern Ideologies

• “Left-wing” Ideologies– Socialism:– Communism: – Anarchism:

Some Modern Ideologies

• Dominant American Ideology– Liberalism: highest good of society is to promote the

ability of its members to develop their own capacities to their full extent (property and amass wealth)• Democracy• Limited government• Market-based “laissez faire” economies• Suspicion of governmental power• Liberties, rights and private property

• American Conservatism and American Liberalism are both versions of Liberalism

American Liberalism vs. American Conservatism

1. Markets2. Social/ Individual Problems3. Government Activity4. Equality5. Rights vs. Order6. DifferencesBeware of Slippery Labels

• Political socialization: The process whereby citizens develop values, attitudes, beliefs, and opinions that enable them to support the political system

Agents of political socialization• Parents• School• College• Media• Historic Events• Policies• Social Class• Race• Gender

Polling and Measuring Public Opinion

• How do we measure public opinion?

• What is the difference between scientific polls and unscientific polls?

• When and how can you trust polls?

• What should the role of polls be in a democracy?

Brief History of Polling

• Straw Polls• Literary Digest Magazine• George Gallup and Scientific Polling

Elements of a Poll

• Population and Sample – Population—the people whose opinion you want

to draw conclusions about– Sample—the people you contact.

• Pollsters want a sample that is as similar to the population as possible.

Scientific Polling

• One of the simplest ways to draw an unbiased sample as close to the population of inference as possible is to use a simple random sample (SRS).

• Simple Random Sample: a technique where each member of the population has an equal probability of becoming part of the sample.

• Straw Polls are not SRS because each person is not equally as likely to be surveyed.

Elements of a Poll

• Sample Size and Accuracy– Margin of Error (+/-)– Larger samples reduce the margin of error

because there is less chance of a few unrepresentative responses altering the overall results.

– Larger samples are more expensive

McCain leads Obama

• A poll reports that McCain leads Obama 46% to 43% (11% no preference), does that mean that McCain is winning?

Elements of a Poll

• Sample Size and Accuracy– Margin of Error (+/-)– Larger samples reduce the margin of error

because there is less chance of a few unrepresentative responses altering the overall results.

– Larger samples are more expensive– Most national polls survey approximately 800-

1200 people

Elements of a Poll

• Survey instrument• Questions asked the respondents• Professional pollsters try to ask questions that

will not lead or confuse respondents

When and how can you trust polls?

• Source• Blurry Snapshots• Push Polls• Non-attitudes

Pros and Cons of Polling

• Good– – – – –

Pros and Cons of Polling

• Bad– – – – – – –

Pros and Cons of Polling

• Summary

Some thoughts

• Public opinion as the basis for democracy• Not sure what it means…• Has public and private purposes• Informed people know how far to trust it– Scientific polling and trusted sources

• For better or worse... it's inextricably part of democracy