Public Opinion/The Media. For Next Time Liberal Source O’Connor and Sabato 15, 12 Enduring Debate Sections 41,42,44-46 264 #1 293 1-3

Public Opinion/The Public Opinion/The MediaMedia

For Next TimeFor Next Time

Liberal SourceLiberal Source

O’Connor and Sabato 15, 12O’Connor and Sabato 15, 12

Enduring Debate Sections 41,42,44-46Enduring Debate Sections 41,42,44-46

264 #1264 #1

293 1-3293 1-3

The Ugly- Literary Digest PollThe Ugly- Literary Digest Poll

1936 Election1936 Election

Over 1 Million RespondentsOver 1 Million Respondents

Predicts Alf Landon WinPredicts Alf Landon Win

Problem- Selecting ParticipantsProblem- Selecting Participants

Problem- Low response rateProblem- Low response rate

Problem- Too far in advance of electionProblem- Too far in advance of election

Polling and DemocracyPolling and Democracy

Verba- Allows voices to be heard that Verba- Allows voices to be heard that would not otherwisewould not otherwise

Allows greater detail on wishes of public Allows greater detail on wishes of public than elections would. than elections would.

Dryzek- Empowers status quoDryzek- Empowers status quo

Does not allow spontaneous expression of Does not allow spontaneous expression of opinionopinion

The Uses Of PollsThe Uses Of Polls

The mediaThe media

Election ForecastingElection Forecasting

By the publicBy the public

By politiciansBy politicians To inform policyTo inform policy To sell policyTo sell policy

By Interest groupsBy Interest groups

Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation

Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policyLarge shifts in opinion -> changes in policy

District level Congruence in some policy District level Congruence in some policy domainsdomains Strongest in states with referendumStrongest in states with referendum

Public Opinion and Public Opinion and RepresentationRepresentation

Can reign in lobbyistsCan reign in lobbyists

When is public opinion influential?When is public opinion influential?

When it sends a clear messageWhen it sends a clear message

When it moves dramaticallyWhen it moves dramatically

When Issue is SalientWhen Issue is Salient

LimitsLimits Not all issues salientNot all issues salient Public opinion shiftsPublic opinion shifts

Public Opinion and ElectionsPublic Opinion and Elections

Surveys allow for forecastingSurveys allow for forecasting

Can enable strategic votingCan enable strategic voting

Large impact on fundraisingLarge impact on fundraising

Horse race coverageHorse race coverage

Presidential ApprovalPresidential Approval

““Do you generally approve of the way Do you generally approve of the way ________ is handling his job as ________ is handling his job as president?”president?”

Important resourceImportant resource

Increased Bargaining PowerIncreased Bargaining Power

More successful with congressMore successful with congress

Success brings successSuccess brings success

Sources of Approval (or lack Sources of Approval (or lack thereof)thereof)

The economyThe economy Both current performance and expectationsBoth current performance and expectations Economy as a whole more important than personalEconomy as a whole more important than personal

Presidential “drama”Presidential “drama”

War/foreign policyWar/foreign policy

Media CoverageMedia Coverage

PrimingPriming Focusing attention on particular areas Focusing attention on particular areas Can help or hurt overall approvalCan help or hurt overall approval

Political TrustPolitical Trust

Most of the time, can you trust government Most of the time, can you trust government to do the right thing?to do the right thing?Trend- Generally decreasingTrend- Generally decreasingSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSimilar trend for other institutions as wellSources?Sources?Policy DissatisfactionPolicy DissatisfactionIncreasing gap between promises/resultsIncreasing gap between promises/resultsPolitical Scandal/MediaPolitical Scandal/Media

Political TrustPolitical Trust

ConsequencesConsequences

Decreased Turnout?Decreased Turnout?

Electoral ChoiceElectoral Choice Benefits 3Benefits 3rdrd party candidates and challengers party candidates and challengers

Difficulty building policy supportDifficulty building policy support

ToleranceTolerance

A willingness to tolerate the presence of A willingness to tolerate the presence of ideas that you do not agree withideas that you do not agree withStouffer 1955Stouffer 195580-90% of respondents support abstract 80-90% of respondents support abstract libertiesliberties30-35% support applications of those 30-35% support applications of those libertieslibertiesThe more educated more likely to be The more educated more likely to be toleranttolerant

ToleranceTolerance

More recent workMore recent work

Gap between abstract and appliedGap between abstract and applied

Gap between educated and not?Gap between educated and not?

Different groups-> different resultsDifferent groups-> different results

When allowed to pick groups they don’t When allowed to pick groups they don’t like, more educated nearly as intolerantlike, more educated nearly as intolerant

Americans not much more tolerant than in Americans not much more tolerant than in the 50s?the 50s?

The MediaThe Media

Organizations that provide information to Organizations that provide information to the publicthe public

Information on politicsInformation on politics

Information on eventsInformation on events

Information on conditionsInformation on conditions

Past Media ResearchPast Media Research

Started in late 40s as a response to WWIIStarted in late 40s as a response to WWII

Authoritarian Personality- Authoritarian Personality- Personality and Personality and Supporting FascismSupporting Fascism

Early Media- Propaganda and support for Early Media- Propaganda and support for fascismfascism

Propaganda Propaganda


““Hypodermic Needle” modelHypodermic Needle” model

Still assumed in much of popular political Still assumed in much of popular political discoursediscourse

Generally not supported by researchGenerally not supported by research


Minimal Effects ModelMinimal Effects Model

50’s-80’s50’s-80’s

Media had very little impact on public Media had very little impact on public opinion.opinion. No evidence of direct persuasionNo evidence of direct persuasion In campaigns, Party ID was main factor In campaigns, Party ID was main factor

determining vote choicedetermining vote choice Limited volatilityLimited volatility


McClure and Patterson McClure and Patterson The Unseeing EyeThe Unseeing Eye

““Television’s Image making power is a myth.”Television’s Image making power is a myth.”

““The only noticeable effect of campaign news is The only noticeable effect of campaign news is an increased tendency among voters to view an increased tendency among voters to view politics in the same trivial terms that the politics in the same trivial terms that the newscasts depict it. Regular viewers of network newscasts depict it. Regular viewers of network news are likely to describe an election campaign news are likely to describe an election campaign as a lot of nonsense rather than a choice as a lot of nonsense rather than a choice between fundamental issues” between fundamental issues”

Modern Media and Public OpinionModern Media and Public Opinion

Iyengar and Kinder: Iyengar and Kinder: News That MattersNews That Matters

Subtle EffectsSubtle Effects

Agenda SettingAgenda Setting

PrimingPriming

FramingFraming


News not so great at telling what to think News not so great at telling what to think

But powerful at telling people what to think But powerful at telling people what to think aboutabout

Increased media attention to an issue Increased media attention to an issue increases importance placed on itincreases importance placed on it

Can trump personal experiencesCan trump personal experiences


Health care- in 90s-78% of people Health care- in 90s-78% of people satisfied with their care, but large satisfied with their care, but large majorities think there is a health care crisismajorities think there is a health care crisisCrime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime Crime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage increased, 50% of public thinks coverage increased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasingcrime is increasingFear of crime- Not related to victimhood, Fear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a crime victim, strongly related to knowing a crime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watchhow much TV you watch


Hypothesis- those problems receive Hypothesis- those problems receive prominent attention on the national news prominent attention on the national news become the problems the viewing public become the problems the viewing public regard as the nations most importantregard as the nations most important

Implicit- More coverage-> more Implicit- More coverage-> more importanceimportance

Other factors may make story prominent Other factors may make story prominent tootoo

Vivid CasesVivid Cases

Does telling of the story have an impact?Does telling of the story have an impact?

Presentation of vivid story (With human interest Presentation of vivid story (With human interest story) or pallid story (statistics)story) or pallid story (statistics)

Expectation- Vividness will be more likely to set Expectation- Vividness will be more likely to set the agendathe agenda

Mixed resultsMixed results

In most cases, vivid no more effective, if not lessIn most cases, vivid no more effective, if not less

In stories with race, strong negative impact on In stories with race, strong negative impact on agenda setting if person portrayed is blackagenda setting if person portrayed is black

Lead StoriesLead Stories

Another facet of presentationAnother facet of presentation

Expectation- First story will be viewed as Expectation- First story will be viewed as more important than later storiesmore important than later stories

We all have expectations about where We all have expectations about where stories go in broadcast/paperstories go in broadcast/paper

Mostly confirmedMostly confirmed

This varies by medium- E.G. On internet, This varies by medium- E.G. On internet, less of an agenda setting effectless of an agenda setting effect


Health careHealth care80%- My Doctor Usually Explains things to me80%- My Doctor Usually Explains things to me50%- Doctors Usually Explain things to their patients50%- Doctors Usually Explain things to their patients65%- Doctors are too interested in making money65%- Doctors are too interested in making money25%- My doctor is too interested in making money25%- My doctor is too interested in making moneyCrime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage Crime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage increased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasingincreased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasingFear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a Fear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a crime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watchcrime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watch

Agenda Setting-ImportanceAgenda Setting-Importance

Perceptions of national problems more Perceptions of national problems more politically important than perceptions of politically important than perceptions of personal problemspersonal problemsProblem- Media Coverage can lead to Problem- Media Coverage can lead to misperceptionsmisperceptionsProblem- Possible manipulationProblem- Possible manipulationUpside- Allow people to consider more Upside- Allow people to consider more than own experiencesthan own experiencesUpside- Can highlight significant problemsUpside- Can highlight significant problems

PrimingPriming

Def: The standards citizens use to judge a Def: The standards citizens use to judge a president [or other figure] may be substantially president [or other figure] may be substantially by which stores newscasts choose to cover, and by which stores newscasts choose to cover, and consequently, which considerations are made consequently, which considerations are made generally accessiblegenerally accessible

Coverage does not necessarily change overall Coverage does not necessarily change overall evaluation, changes criteria of evaluationevaluation, changes criteria of evaluation

Overall evaluation may go up or down Overall evaluation may go up or down depending on how president is viewed as doing depending on how president is viewed as doing on a specific domainon a specific domain

PrimingPriming

Example- George Bush and Gulf WarExample- George Bush and Gulf War

As war coverage increases, so does As war coverage increases, so does approvalapproval

As economic coverage increases, As economic coverage increases, decreasesdecreases

Irony- Economy not so bad as media Irony- Economy not so bad as media portrayalsportrayals

FramingFraming

Because frames permeate public Because frames permeate public discussions of politics, they in effect teach discussions of politics, they in effect teach ordinary citizens how to think about and ordinary citizens how to think about and understand complex social problems... understand complex social problems... Elites wage a war of frames because they Elites wage a war of frames because they know that if their frame becomes the know that if their frame becomes the dominant way of thinking about a problem, dominant way of thinking about a problem, then the battle of public opinion has been then the battle of public opinion has been won”- Nelson and Kinder 1996won”- Nelson and Kinder 1996

FramingFraming

Sniderman’s Value Pluralism Model- Sniderman’s Value Pluralism Model- People have a number of values that they People have a number of values that they hold strongly but that are incompatible with hold strongly but that are incompatible with one anotherone another

Issues can tap any of a number of these Issues can tap any of a number of these valuesvalues

Framing can determine which values are Framing can determine which values are deemed relevant for evaluating the issuedeemed relevant for evaluating the issue

Klan Rally ExperimentKlan Rally Experiment

Tolerance is a tricky issueTolerance is a tricky issue

Especially the issue of tolerating Especially the issue of tolerating intoleranceintolerance

Two sets of valuesTwo sets of values Free SpeechFree Speech Public SafetyPublic Safety

Which values applied make difference for Which values applied make difference for whether people support right to marchwhether people support right to march

Framing EffectsFraming Effects

Sexual PsychopathsSexual Psychopaths

Military in IraqMilitary in Iraq

Health CareHealth Care

AbortionAbortion

Who is Susceptible to Media Who is Susceptible to Media Effects?Effects?

Those who are exposedThose who are exposed Moderate exposureModerate exposure

Those who are moderately awareThose who are moderately aware

Those who are trusting of the mediaThose who are trusting of the media

Political moderates?Political moderates?

Media and ElectionsMedia and Elections

Intense CoverageIntense Coverage

Horse Race JournalismHorse Race Journalism

Public DissatisfactionPublic Dissatisfaction

Media BiasMedia Bias

The Problem- disconnect with realityThe Problem- disconnect with reality

Perception- Liberal biasPerception- Liberal bias

Racial Bias?Racial Bias?

Class bias?Class bias?

Audience biasAudience bias

News NormsNews Norms

ImpartialityImpartiality

Equal Time Equal Time

ConflictConflict

NoveltyNovelty

Media TypesMedia Types

NewspapersNewspapers

Broadcast MediaBroadcast Media

RadioRadio

Narrowcasting?Narrowcasting?

CableCable

InternetInternet

Internet And PoliticsInternet And Politics

Wide range of viewpointsWide range of viewpoints

InteractiveInteractive

Paradox- Loss of civil society?Paradox- Loss of civil society?

Reinforcement of viewsReinforcement of views

More of the Same?More of the Same?

Documents

Public Opinion/The Media. For Next Time Liberal Source O’Connor and Sabato 15, 12 Enduring Debate Sections 41,42,44-46 264 #1 293 1-3