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Public spending pressures
Robert Chote
Carl Emmerson
Christine Frayne
Total Managed Expenditure (TME)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
96
–9
7
97
–9
8
98
–9
9
99
–0
0
00
–0
1
01
–0
2
02
–0
3
03
–0
4
04
–0
5
05
–0
6
06
–0
7
07
–0
8
08
–0
9
09
–1
0
10
–1
1
Financial year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
re
al i
ncr
ea
se
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of n
atio
na
l in
com
e
Level (RH axis)
Total Managed Expenditure (TME)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
96
–9
7
97
–9
8
98
–9
9
99
–0
0
00
–0
1
01
–0
2
02
–0
3
03
–0
4
04
–0
5
05
–0
6
06
–0
7
07
–0
8
08
–0
9
09
–1
0
10
–1
1
Financial year
Pe
rce
nta
ge
re
al i
ncr
ea
se
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of n
atio
na
l in
com
e
Real increase (LH axis)
Level (RH axis)
PBR projection (% of GDP,RHS)
Composition of total managed expenditure 2004-05
1%
13%
28%
17%
41%
Health
Education
Official DevelopmentAssistanceSocial security and taxcreditsOther
What increases might we have?
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
'Other'
Social security & tax credits
Official Development Assistance
Education
Health
Of which:
Total Managed Expenditure
Percentage real increase
CSR 2007TME
(real increase)
TME – (health + education +
ODA)
TME – (health + education +
ODA + SS and TC)
PBR
(2007-08 to 2010-11)
1.8 0.8 –0.1
11 Labour years
(1996-97 to 2007-08)
Labour under Tory plans
(1996-97 to 1998-99)
SR to date
(1998-99 to 2005-06)
Current plans
(2005-06 to 2007-08)
Source: HM Treasury
CSR 2007TME
(real increase)
TME – (health + education +
ODA)
TME – (health + education +
ODA + SS and TC)
PBR
(2007-08 to 2010-11)
1.8 0.8 –0.1
11 Labour years
(1996-97 to 2007-08)
3.2 2.3 2.4
Labour under Tory plans
(1996-97 to 1998-99)
SR to date
(1998-99 to 2005-06)
Current plans
(2005-06 to 2007-08)
Source: HM Treasury
CSR 2007TME
(real increase)
TME – (health + education +
ODA)
TME – (health + education +
ODA + SS and TC)
PBR
(2007-08 to 2010-11)
1.8 0.8 –0.1
11 Labour years
(1996-97 to 2007-08)
3.2 2.3 2.4
Labour under Tory plans
(1996-97 to 1998-99)
–0.2 –0.7 –0.2
SR to date
(1998-99 to 2005-06)
4.3 3.3 3.1
Current plans
(2005-06 to 2007-08)
3.0 1.9 2.6
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant
as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8
TME minus health, education, ODA
0.8
TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits
–0.1
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant
as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8 2.4
TME minus health, education, ODA
0.8 1.7
TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits
–0.1 1.3
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant
as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8 2.4 2.8
TME minus health, education, ODA
0.8 1.7 2.4
TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits
–0.1 1.3 2.4
Source: HM Treasury
Possible CSR 2007 allocations
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant
as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8 2.4 2.8 0.0
TME minus health, education, ODA
0.8 1.7 2.4 –2.0
TME minus health, education, ODA, social security and tax credits
–0.1 1.3 2.4 –4.9
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant
as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8
Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
–£8½ bn
Additional funding required
(2005–06 terms)
No change
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant
as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8 2.4
Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
–£8½ bn No change
Additional funding required
(2005–06 terms)
No change
+£8½ bn
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant
as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8 2.4 2.8
Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
–£8½ bn No change
+ £6½ bn
Additional funding required
(2005–06 terms)
No change
+£8½ bn +£15 bn
Source: HM Treasury
Annual cost of different illustrative alternative scenarios
TME as PBR
(1) TME constant as % GDP
(2) ‘Other’ spending constant
as % GDP
(3) TME constant
in real terms
TME 1.8 2.4 2.8 0.0
Spending cut/increase over 2007 CSR
(2005–06 terms)
–£8½ bn No change
+ £6½ bn –£35½bn
Additional funding required
(2005–06 terms)
No change
+£8½ bn +£15 bn –£27 bn
Source: HM Treasury
Public spending pressures
Robert Chote
Carl Emmerson
Christine Frayne
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