Pulse Asia January 2010 Survey on Trust and Endorsement

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MEDIA RELEASE (February 24, 2010)

FROM: Dr. Ana Maria L. TabundaChief Research FellowPulse Asia, Inc.

RE: Pulse Asias January 2010 Pre-election Survey:Trust Ratings of Selected Public Figures and Groupsand Electoral Endorsements for President in the May 2010 Elections

In keeping with our academic nature, Pulse Asia disseminates to the public some findingsfrom the January 2010 Pre-Election national survey.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from January 22 to 26, 2010 using face-to-faceinterviews. In the period prior to and during the conduct of the survey, the following were someof the key political developments and issues that dominated the news headlines: (1) themagnitude 7.0 earthquake that hit Haiti on 12 January 2010 and the international effort to helpthe country; (2) the impending retirement of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno andArmed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado and the issue of whetherPresident Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo should appoint their replacements or leave the task to the

next president; (3) the report of the Senate Committee of the Whole seeking the censure of Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. over the C-5 road extension project and the alleged attempt by thelatters Senate allies to unseat Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who chairs the said committee;(4) the Commission on Election (COMELEC) decision clearing the way for the candidacies of President Arroyo and former President Joseph Estrada in the May 2010 elections; (5) thereinstatement of a few presidential and senatorial candidates and the inclusion of several party-list groups in the final list of candidates bringing the total number of candidates to ten for thepresidency, eight for the vice-presidency, 62 for the Senate, and 150 for the party-list; (6)


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Pulse Asias January 2010 Pre-Election Survey:Media Release on Trust Ratings of Selected Public Figures and Groups

and Electoral Endorsements for President in the May 2010 ElectionsFebruary 24, 2010

Public distrust in President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo remains the predominant sentimenttoward her in January 2010

Nearly seven in ten Filipinos (68%) distrust President Arroyo while only about one in ten(11%) expresses trust in her. Meanwhile, 20% cannot say if they trust or distrust the President.The Presidents current overall trust rating is the same as that recorded in December 2009 andthe lowest she has attained since March 2001. On the other hand, the present overall distrustrating of President Arroyo practically the same as the December 2009 figure (67%) is herhighest distrust rating since March 2001. (See Table 1)

Table 1 AWARENESS & TRUST RATINGS OF

PRESIDENT GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYOJanuary 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines

(Row Percent)

(Estimated

Population Big Small /Demographic variables Percentage) Trust Undecided No trust DK/RA*

Total Philippines (100%) 100 11 20 68 1

NCR (12%) 100 7 15 77 1Balance Luzon (44%) 100 12 22 65 1

Northern/Central Luzon (22%) 100 18 26 56 0Southern Luzon (22%) 100 7 18 73 3

Visayas (20%) 100 16 18 65 0Western Visayas (8%) 100 8 9 82 0Central Visayas (8%) 100 23 21 56 0Eastern Visayas (5%) 100 17 27 54 2

Mindanao (24%) 100 7 22 71 1Regions 9,12 and ARMM (11%) 100 5 18 77 0Regions 10 and CARAGA (7%) 100 5 33 60 2Region 11 (5%) 100 13 13 75 0

Class ABC (8%) 100 9 16 76 0TOTAL D (60%) 100 12 21 66 1E (32%) 100 11 19 69 1

*DK/RA (Don't Know/Refused) = Those who say that they simply have no basis for assessing the entity, whether of trust, indecision or distrust.

Q63. NAIS SANA NAMING TANUNGIN KAYO TUNGKOL SA PAGTITIWALA NINYO SA ILANG MGA TAO SA ATING LIPUNAN. Sa pamamagitan po ng board na ito (SHOW RATING BOARD), maaari bang pakisabi ninyo kung gaano kalaki o kaliit ang inyong pagtitiwala kay [PERSONALITY]?

Masasabi ba ninyo na ito ay MALAKING-MALAKI, MALAKI, MAAARING MALAKI AT MAAARING MALIIT, MALIIT, o MALIIT NA MALIIT/WALA? Notes: (1) % Big Trust = % Very Big Trust plus % Big Trust ; % Small Trust = % Small Trust plus Very Small Trust

(2) *Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding off.

Base : Aware

Aware

The President scores majority distrust ratings in every geographic area (i.e., includingsub-regions) and socio-economic class ranging from 54% in Eastern Visayas to 82% in WesternVisayas. On the other hand, Eastern Visayans (17%), residents of Northern/Central Luzon(18%), and Central Visayans (23%) grant the President her highest trust ratings while single-digittrust scores are registered in Mindanao, particularly in all areas in Mindanao except Region 11


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(5% to 7%), Metro Manila (7%), Southern Luzon (7%), Western Visayas (8%), and Class ABC(9%). Public ambivalence as regards the trustworthiness of President Arroyo is most pronouncedamong those in Northern/Central Luzon (26%), Eastern Visayans (27%), and residents of Region10 and CARAGA (33%) while it is least manifest in Western Visayas (9%), Region 11 (13%),and Metro Manila (15%). (See Table 1)

Filipinos assessment of the trustworthiness of President Arroyo hardly changes betweenDecember 2009 and January 2010 at the national level and across geographic areas and socio-economic groupings. The only notable changes during this period are recorded in the Visayaswhere there is a 10-percentage drop in indecision level and an 8-percentage point increase inPresident Arroyos distrust rating. (See Table 2)

Table 2COMPARATIVE TRUST RATINGS OF

PRESIDENT GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYODecember 2009 and January 2010 / Philippines

(In Percent)

Demographic variables Change* Change* DISTRUST Change*Dec Jan Jan09 - Dec Jan Jan09 - Dec Jan Jan09 -09 10 Dec09 09 10 Dec09 09 10 Dec09

Total Philippines 11 11 0 22 20 - 2 67 68 + 1

NCR 9 7 - 2 13 15 + 2 76 77 + 1Balance Luzon 10 12 + 2 24 22 - 2 66 65 - 1Visayas 15 16 + 1 28 18 - 10 57 65 + 8Mindanao 8 7 - 1 19 22 + 3 72 71 - 1

Class ABC 12 9 - 3 14 16 + 2 73 76 + 3TOTAL D 11 12 + 1 23 21 - 2 66 66 0E 10 11 + 1 22 19 - 3 67 69 + 2

* Change = Figures of January 2010 minus Figures of December 2009.

UNDECIDED TRUST

Public trust is the predominant sentiment only toward two presidential candidates and twovice-presidential bets running in the May 2010 elections

Among those seeking to become the countrys next president, only Senators Manuel B.Villar, Jr. and Benigno C. Aquino III enjoy majority trust ratings (70% and 64%, respectively).

Former President Joseph Estrada registers practically the same trust and distrust ratings (33%versus 37%) while public assessment of the trustworthiness of former Department of NationalDefense (DND) Secretary Gilberto C. Teodoro, Jr. is divided, with 36% of Filipinos ambivalenton the matter, 32% trusting him, and 31% distrusting him. In contrast, the other presidentialcandidates for the coming elections record near to small majority distrust ratings among thoseaware of them Senator Jamby Madrigal (47%), Olongapo City Councilor JC de los Reyes(50%), Mr. Vetallano S. Acosta (51%), Jesus is Lord (JIL) Movement Founder Eduardo


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Villanueva (53%), and Center for Alternative Development Initiatives (CADI) President JesusNicanor Perlas (54%). (See Table 3)

In the case of those running for vice-president, only Senators Manuel A. Roxas II andLoren Legarda are trusted by most Filipinos (73% and 61%, respectively). As for Makati City

Mayor Jejomar C. Binay, a big plurality of Filipinos trusts him (44%). On the other hand, bigpluralities to small majorities of those aware of them distrust the other vice-presidentialcandidates in the May 2010 elections former Optical Media Board (OMB) ChairpersonEduardo Manzano (45%), former Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA)Chairperson Bayani Fernando (46%), St. John Colleges, Inc. Director Dominador F. Chipeco, Jr.(52%), Mr. Jay Y. Sonza (57%), and former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)Chairperson Perfecto Yasay, Jr. (58%). (See Table 3)

Big Small / Trust Undecided No trust DK/RA*

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo 100 11 20 68 1

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATESSenator Manuel "Manny" Villar, Jr. 100 70 18 12 0Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III 100 64 23 12 1Former President Joseph "Erap" Estrada 99 33 29 37 1Former DND Sec. Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro 96 32 36 31 1Senator Richard "Dick" Gordon 96 26 38 34 2JIL Founder Eduardo "Bro. Eddie" Villanueva 92 15 29 53 3Senator Jamby Madrigal 95 14 37 47 2

Financial Consultant Vetallano S. Acosta 29 5 22 51 23Olongapo City Councilor JC De Los Reyes 31 4 27 50 19CADI President Jesus Nicanor Nick Perlas 36 4 22 54 20

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATESSenator Manuel "Mar" Roxas II 100 73 16 10 1Senator Loren Legarda 100 61 22 17 0Makati City Mayor Jejomar "Jojo" Binay 98 44 28 26 2Former OMB Chairman Eduardo Manzano 99 20 33 45 1Former MMDA Chairman Bayani BF Fernando 95 18 34 46 3TV Personality Jose "Jay Sonza" Y. Sonza 69 10 25 57 9Former SEC Chairman Perfecto "Kidlat" Yasay 58 8 23 58 11St. John Colleges, Inc. Director

Dominador "Jun" F. Chipeco, Jr. 46 5 27 52 17

SELECTED GROUPS / INSTITUTIONSCommission on Elections 100 47 34 18 1Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting 97 43 36 19 1Smartmatic-TIM 95 34 41 22 3

*DK/RA (Don't Know/Refused) = Those who say that they simply have no basis for assessing the entity, whether of trust, indecision or distrust.

Q63-94. NAIS SANA NAMING TANUNGIN KAYO TUNGKOL SA PAGTITIWALA NINYO SA ILANG MGA TAO SA ATING LIPUNAN. Sa pamamagitan po ng board na ito (SHOW RATING BOARD), maaari bang pakisabi ninyo kung gaano kalaki o kaliit ang inyong pagtitiwala kay [PERSONALITY]? Masasabi ba ninyo na ito ay MALAKING-MALAKI, MALAKI, MAAARING MALAKI AT MAAARING MALIIT, MALIIT, o MALIIT NA MALIIT/WALA?

Notes: (1) % Big Trust = % Very Big Trust plus % Big T rust ; % Small Trust = % Small Trust plus Very Small Trust (2) *Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding off.

Table 3 AWARENESS AND TRUST RATINGS OF SELECTED PUBLIC FIGURES AND GROUPS

January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines(In Percent)

Base : Aware

Selected Public Figures and Groups Aware


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Not one of the 13 presidential and vice-presidential candidates trust-rated in Pulse AsiasDecember 2009 and January 2010 pre-election surveys experiences an improvement in his/heroverall trust rating. Instead, public trust in three candidates becomes less pronounced during thisperiod Senator Legarda (-6 percentage points), former OMB Chairperson Manzano (-7

percentage points), and Senator Aquino (-8 percentage points). Meanwhile, four candidatesrecord higher distrust ratings in January 2010 compared to the previous month Senator Legarda(17% versus 11%), Makati City Mayor Binay (26% versus 21%), former OMB ChairpersonManzano (45% versus 36%), and JIL Movement Founder Villanueva (53% versus 47%). Withrespect to public ambivalence, the only notable movements are the increase in the indecisionratings of Olongapo City Councilor de los Reyes (+5 percentage points) and Senator Aquino (+6percentage points). (See Table 4)

Table 4COMPARATIVE TRUST RATINGS OF SELECTED PUBLIC FIGURES & GROUPS

October 2009 to January 2010 / Philippines

(In Percent)Selected Public Figures & Groups TRUST Change* UNDECIDED Change* DISTRUST Change*

Oct Dec Jan Jan10 - Oct Dec Jan Jan10 - Oct Dec Jan Jan10 -

09 09 10 Dec09 09 09 10 Dec09 09 09 10 Dec09

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo 19 11 11 0 29 22 20 - 2 52 67 68 + 1

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATESSenator Manuel "Manny" Villar, Jr. 75 69 70 + 1 19 20 18 - 2 6 10 12 + 2Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III 78 72 64 - 8 17 17 23 + 6 5 10 12 + 2Former President Joseph "Erap" Estrada 44 37 33 - 4 28 26 29 + 3 28 36 37 + 1Former DND Sec. Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro 30 29 32 + 3 42 35 36 + 1 26 34 31 - 3Senator Richard "Dick" Gordon --- 27 26 - 1 --- 34 38 + 4 --- 37 34 - 3JIL Founder Eduardo "Bro. Eddie" Villanueva --- 18 15 - 3 --- 33 29 - 4 --- 47 53 + 6

Senator Jamby Madrigal --- --- 14 -- --- --- 37 -- --- --- 47 --Financial Consultant Vetallano S. Acosta --- --- 5 -- --- --- 22 -- --- --- 51 --Olongapo City Councilor JC De Los Reyes --- 6 4 - 2 --- 22 27 + 5 --- 54 50 - 4CADI President Jesus Nicanor Nick Perlas --- 5 4 - 1 --- 25 22 - 3 --- 53 54 + 1

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATESSenator Manuel "Mar" Roxas II 76 72 73 + 1 18 18 16 - 2 5 9 10 + 1Senator Loren Legarda 64 67 61 - 6 26 21 22 + 1 10 11 17 + 6Makati City Mayor Jejomar "Jojo" Binay 57 46 44 - 2 29 31 28 - 3 13 21 26 + 5Former OMB Chairman Eduardo Manzano 38 27 20 - 7 38 37 33 - 4 23 36 45 + 9Former MMDA Chairman Bayani BF Fernando --- 20 18 - 2 --- 33 34 + 1 --- 44 46 + 2TV Personality Jose "Jay Sonza" Y. Sonza --- --- 10 -- --- --- 25 -- --- --- 57 --Former SEC Chairman Perfecto "Kidlat" Yasay --- --- 8 -- --- --- 23 -- --- --- 58 --St. John Colleges, Inc. Director --- --- 5 -- --- --- 27 -- --- --- 52 --

Dominador "Jun" F. Chipeco, Jr.

SELECTED GROUPS / INSTITUTIONSCommission on Election (COMELEC) 38 --- 47 -- 41 --- 34 -- 21 --- 18 --PPCRV --- --- 43 -- --- --- 36 -- --- --- 19 --Smartmatic-TIM 24 --- 34 -- 50 --- 41 -- 23 --- 22 --

* Change = Figures of January 2010 minus Figures of December 2009.


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Near to sizeable majorities across geographic areas (48% to 61%) and socio-economicclasses (49% to 59%) will surely not elect a presidential candidate endorsed by President Arroyo.A similar pattern may be observed in the case of former President Ramos with 40% to 53%across geographic areas and 35% to 51% in the different socio-economic groupings saying they

are certainly not voting for a presidential candidate endorsed by him. The only exception is inMindanao where nearly the same percentages will probably vote for such a candidate (26%),probably not elect a candidate endorsed by ex-President Ramos (27%) or certainly not supportsuch a candidate (32%). (See Table 6)

Table 6ELECTORAL ENDORSEMENTS FOR PRESIDENT

January 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines(In Percent)

Base: Registered Voters, 100%

If a PRESIDENTIAL candidate is supported by _________ WOULD YOU SURELY VOTE FOR, PROBABLY

VOTE FOR, PROBABLY NOT VOTE FOR,SURELY NOT VOTE FOR the candidateendorsed by ______________.

President Gloria Macapagal-ArroyoSurely vote for 4 4 3 9 3 4 4 5Probably vote for 12 10 11 14 12 10 11 13Probably not vote for 22 20 22 21 23 18 23 21Surely not vote for 52 61 52 51 48 59 53 49No effect 7 5 7 4 11 7 7 7Don't know / Refused 3 0 5 1 3 2 2 5

Former President Fidel V. RamosSurely vote for 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 5Probably vote for 21 17 20 21 26 14 21 22Probably not vote for 25 21 24 28 27 20 25 27Surely not vote for 40 53 40 40 32 51 41 35No effect 6 4 7 3 8 7 6 6Don't know / Refused 3 1 4 2 3 4 2 4

Q43 - 44. Kung sakali na ang isang kandidato sa pagka PRESIDENTE ay suportahan ni (read name), SIGURADONG IBOBOTO NINYO,MALAMANG NA IBOBOTO NINYO, MALAMANG NA HINDI NINYO IBOBOTO, SIGURADONG HINDI NINYO IBOBOTO ang kandidatong inindorso ni (read name)

ABC D E

LOCATION CLASSBAL

RP NCR LUZ VIS MIN

Cross-linking Filipinos opinion regarding the trustworthiness of President Arroyo andpublic reaction to electoral endorsement for a presidential candidate made by her reveals thatpublic distrust in her the majority sentiment (68%) associates with a higher level of certainnon-support for such a candidate (+12 percentage points) while public trust is linked to a higherlevel of certain support for any presidential bet she endorses (+15 percentage points). (See Table7) Moreover, comparative data for President Arroyo between October 2009 and January 2010show that while there is no change in the level of certain support for a presidential candidateendorsed by her (1% versus 4%), certain non-support for such a candidate becomes morepronounced during this period (+9 percentage points). (See Table 8)


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ELECTORAL ENDORSEMENT FOR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

rust Ratings of President ArroyoBig Small /

Electoral Endorsement Trust Undecided No Trustfor Presidential Candidates by: (11%) (20%) (68%)

PRESIDENT GLORIA ARROYOSurely vote for (4%) 19 4 2Probably vote for (12%) 30 18 7Probably not vote for (22%) 16 33 19Surely not vote for (52%) 24 29 64No effect (7%) 6 11 6Don't know/Refused* (3%) 5 4 2

*DK/RA (Dont Know/Refused) = Those who say that they simply have no basis in saying whether they will surely vote for, probably vote for,probably not vote for, surely not vote for a candidate endorsed by (name).

Notes: (1) % Big Trust = % Very Big Trust plus % Big Trust ; % Small Trust = % Small Trust plus Very Small Trust (2) Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding off or Don't Know Refused responses.

by TRUST RATINGS OF PRESIDENT GLORIA ARROYOJanuary 22 - 26, 2010 / Philippines

(Column Percent)

Table 7

Table 8ELECTORAL ENDORSEMENTS FOR PRESIDENT:

PRESIDENT GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYOOctober 2009 and January 2010 / Philippines

(In Percent)

Base: Registered Voters, 100% Surely Probably Probably Surely NOT No DK/

Demographic variables vote for vote for NOT vote for vote for Effect RA Oct Jan Oct Jan Oct Jan Oct Jan Oct Jan Oct Jan

09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10 09 10Total Philippines 1 4 14 12 36 22 43 52 3 7 3 3

NCR 1 4 9 10 33 20 52 61 3 5 2 0Balance Luzon 1 3 13 11 36 22 41 52 4 7 4 5Visayas 1 9 11 14 35 21 49 51 3 4 1 1Mindanao 1 3 19 12 38 23 37 48 2 11 2 3

Class ABC 4 4 9 10 26 18 57 59 2 7 2 2TOTAL D 1 4 13 11 38 23 42 53 4 7 3 2E 2 5 17 13 34 21 43 49 3 7 2 5

Kung sakali na ang isang kandidato sa pagka PRESIDENTE ay suportahan ni (read n ame), SIGURADONG IBOBOTO NINYO,

MALAMANG NA IBOBOTO NINYO, MALAMANG NA HINDI NINYO IBOBOTO, SIGURADONG HINDI NINYO IBOBOTO ang kandidatong inindorso ni (read name)

Q. Pangulong Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo

Documents

Pulse Asia January 2010 Survey on Trust and Endorsement