Pulse Asia November 2012 Survey on Senatorial Preferences

7/30/2019 Pulse Asia November 2012 Survey on Senatorial Preferences

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MEDIARELEASE(December 11, 2012)

FROM: Prof. Ronald D. Holmes

PresidentPulse Asia, Inc.

RE: Pulse Asias November 2012 Nationwide Survey on

Filipinos Senatorial Preferences for the May 2013 Elections

Pulse Asia is pleased to share with you some findings on Filipinos Senatorial

Preferences for the May 2013 Elections from the November 2012 Ulat ng Bayannational survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this

information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from November 23 to 29, 2012 using face-

to-face interviews. The key developments that preoccupied Filipinos in November 2012include the following: (1) the appointment of several government officials including that

of Atty. Marvic F. Leonen as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court; (2) the re-electionof United States President Barack Obama and the selection of Communist Party of China

General Secretary Xi Jinping as Chinas next president; (3) the moves of the Commission

on Elections (COMELEC) to clean the list of organizations and groups participating in


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dumping of toxic waste in Subic, Olongapo by American navy ships and submarines inOctober 2012 and the resulting Senate investigation into the matter; (8) the

commemoration of the third anniversary of the so-called Ampatuan massacre whichclaimed the lives of 58 individuals and (9) in the economic front, the 7.1% growth in thePhilippine economy in the third quarter of 2012, the continued appreciation of the local

currency vis--vis the US dollar, the record-breaking performance of the Philippine stock

market, increase in power rates and gas prices and the failure of the Bureau of InternalRevenue (BIR) to meet its October 2012 target.

As in our previous surveys, this nationwide survey is based on a sample of 1,200

representative adults 18 years old and above. It has a 3% error margin at the 95%confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the

survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a 6% error

margin, also at 95% confidence level. Those interested in further technical detailsconcerning the survey's questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia in

writing for fuller details, including copies of the pre-tested questions actually used.

Pulse Asias pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and

conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In

keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group

influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia undertakes Ulat ng Bayan surveys on itsown without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse AsiaPresident at 09189335497 or Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Pulse Asia Chief Research Fellow

at 09189436816.


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Pulse Asias November 2012 Ulat ng Bayan Survey:Media Release on Filipinos Senatorial Preferences

for the May 2013 Elections11 December 2012

Senators Chiz Escudero and Loren Legarda share the top spot in the comingsenatorial race; the rest of the list of probable winners is evenly split with 5candidates coming from the coalition led by the Liberal Party (LP) and fiveothers belonging to the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA)

Out of the 32 senatorial candidates included in this survey, twelve have astatistical chance of making it to the Senate if the May 2013 elections were heldduring the survey period.1 Virtually all of the probable winners are either formeror current members of Congress. Currently leading the senatorial race are two re-electionists Senator Chiz Escudero (74.1%) and Senator Loren Legarda (69.3%).Both lawmakers share 1st and 2nd places. (Please refer to Table 1.)

In 3rd to 4th places is Senator Alan Peter Cayetano (60.1%) while San Juan CityRepresentative JV Ejercito Estrada (57.0%) has a statistical ranking of 3rd to 6thplaces. Sharing 4th to 7th places are Cagayan Representative Juan Ponce Enrile, Jr.(53.2%) and former Las Pias Representative Cynthia Villar (52.2%). Meanwhile,Senator Aquilino Pimentel has an overall voter preference of 50.2% whichtranslates to a statistical ranking of 5th to 8th places while Senator GringoHonasan (44.9%) is ranked 7th to 12th. Completing the list of probable winners are

four candidates who share 8th to 12th places Senator Antonio Trillanes IV(43.2%), Ms. Nancy Binay (41.3%), Aurora Province Representative EdgardoAngara (40.8%) and former Senator Migz Zubiri (40.5%).

Less than one in ten Filipinos (4.2%) is not inclined to vote for any of the 32individuals included in this surveys senatorial probe.


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Table 1

2013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

November 23 - 29, 2012 / Philippines(Multiple Response, up to 12 names allowed)

Base: Total Interviews, 100%

Aware Voting For Rank

ESCUDERO, Chiz 92 74.1 1-2LEGARDA, Loren 94 69.3 1-2CAYETANO, Alan Peter 90 60.1 3-4

EJERCITO Estrada , JV 91 57.0 3-6ENRILE, Juan Ponce Jr. 88 53.2 4-7VILLAR, Cynthia "Hanepbuhay" 91 52.2 4-7

PIMENTEL, Aquilino "Koko" 88 50.2 5-8HONASAN, Gringo 91 44.9 7-12TRILLANES, Antonio IV 86 43.2 8-12BINAY, Nancy 72 41.3 8-12ANGARA, Edgardo "Sonny" 86 40.8 8-12

ZUBIRI, Migz 88 40.5 8-12MADRIGAL, Jamby A. S. 88 34.4 13-14GORDON, "Dick" 82 29.7 13-17MAGSAYSAY, Ramon "Jun", Jr. 74 28.8 14-17AQUINO, Benigno Bam 57 27.9 14-17POE, Grace 69 24.7 14-18HONTIVEROS, Risa 64 21.2 17-18

MACEDA, Manong Ernie 71 16.7 19-20COJUANGCO, Tingting 57 14.2 19-20HAGEDORN, Ed 51 8.8 21-22MAGSAYSAY, Mitos 41 7.7 21-23CASIO, Teddy 35 5.3 22-25ALCANTARA, Samson S. 12 4.0 23-27

MONTAO, Mon 16 3.3 23-29DAVID, Lito 10 2.8 24-29DE LOS REYES, JC 15 2.7 24-29

FALCONE, Bal 7 1.9 25-31PENSON, Ricardo "Dick" 12 1.8 25-31BELGICA, Greco 7 0.7 28-32

LLASOS, Marwil 5 0.7 28-32SEERES, Christian 8 0.5 30-32

N / R f d / U d id d 4 2

UNALPLP

IndependentAKBAYAN

UNAUNA

IndependentUNA

MAKABAYAN

RP-DPP

KAPATIRANDPP

SJS

IndependentKAPATIRANKAPATIRAN

DPPIndependent

UNALDP

UNALP

UNANPCNP

PDP LABANUNA

NPNPC

Independent

Party

LP-NP


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On average, Filipinos have nine favored senatorial candidates while themedian figure is 10; only about four in ten Filipinos (39%) have a complete

slate for the May 2013 elections

With about a half a year before the next midterm elections, Filipinos are alreadynaming nine preferred senatorial bets on average. Across survey sub-groupings,mean figures range from seven among those with at best an elementaryeducation to 10 among those in Mindanao, particularly urban Mindanao, as wellas those with some college education, government employees and Aglipayans.

On the other hand, the overall median figure is 10 while across survey sub-groupings, median figures vary from eight in the oldest age cohort and amongthose with the least exposure to formal schooling to 12 among Mindanaoans,vocational school graduates, those with some college units, governmentemployees, Aglipayans and Muslims.2(Please refer to Table 2.)

Less than four in ten Filipinos (39%) have a complete slate for the May 2013senatorial race (i.e., already have 12 preferred candidates for the Senate). Acrosssurvey sub-groupings, the only majority figures are recorded among vocationalschool graduates (51%), Mindanaoans (53%) and specifically rural Mindanaoans(54%), those with some college education (53%), government employees (56%),Muslims (56%) and Aglipayans (65%). In contrast, only about two in ten of thosewith at best an elementary education (21%) and Bicolanos (23%) have a completeslate for coming midterm elections. (Please refer to Table 3.)


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Table 22013 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES

November 23 - 29, 2012 / Philippines

(Estimated (Estimated

Population Population

Demographic variables Percentage) Mean Median Demographic variables Percentage) Mean Median

Total Philippines (100%) 9 10 Total Philippines (100%) 9 10

NCR (13%) 9 10 No formal educ/elem grad (22%) 7 8

Balance Luzon (44%) 8 9 Some HS (14%) 9 11Urban (21%) 8 9 Completed HS (35%) 9 10

Rural (23%) 8 9 Vocational (6%) 9 12Visayas (20%) 9 10 Some college (12%) 10 12

Urban (7%) 9 10 Completed coll/post coll (11%) 9 11Rural (13%) 8 10

Mindanao (23%) 10 12 Total Working (52%) 9 10Urban (7%) 10 12 Government (6%) 10 12Rural (16%) 9 12 Private (12%) 8 9

Self-employed (23%) 9 10Total Urban (49%) 9 10 Farmer/Fisherfolk (12%) 8 9

Total Rural (51%) 9 10 Not Working (48%) 9 10

Class ABC (10%) 8 9 Roman Catholic (88%) 9 10TOTAL D (61%) 9 10 Iglesia Ni Cristo (1%) 8 9

D1 (owns res'l lot) (42%) 9 10 Aglipayan (0.2%) 10 12D2 (does not own res'l lot) (19%) 9 10 Islam (3%) 9 12

E (29%) 9 10 Others (7%) 9 9

Male (50%) 9 10 Tagalog (39%) 9 9

Female (50%) 9 10 Ilocano (5%) 9 10Pangasinense (---) --- ---18-24 years old (15%) 9 11 Kapampangan (5%) 8 925-34 (25%) 9 10 Bicolano (6%) 8 935-44 (21%) 9 10 Ilonggo (7%) 9 1045-54 (18%) 8 10 Cebuano (23%) 9 1055-64 (12%) 8 9 Waray (3%) 9 1165 & up (8%) 8 8 Others (12%) 9 11

Base: Total Interviews, 100% Base: Total Interviews, 100%

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Table 32013 ELECTIONS:

NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCESNovember 23 - 29, 2012 / PhilippinesPage 1 of 2

(Estimated

Population

Demographic variables Percentage) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Total Philippines (100%) 4 2 2 4 5 5 6 5 7 8 8 6 39

NCR (13%) 4 1 2 2 6 5 6 9 6 8 7 4 41

Balance Luzon (44%) 6 4 1 5 5 5 6 5 7 9 9 8 31Urban (21%) 4 2 1 5 6 6 9 7 6 7 8 7 31Rural (23%) 7 5 1 4 3 4 4 3 8 11 9 8 31

Visayas (20%) 5 2 2 4 7 4 4 4 9 7 8 6 38Urban (7%) 2 2 3 9 2 5 4 7 6 4 8 3 46Rural (13%) 6 2 2 2 10 4 4 2 10 8 8 8 34

Mindanao (23%) 1 0 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 4 53

Urban (7%) 0 0 2 1 2 3 3 9 6 12 8 3 50Rural (16%) 2 0 2 3 4 6 6 3 6 4 5 4 54

Total Urban (49%) 3 1 2 4 5 5 6 8 6 8 8 5 39Total Rural (51%) 5 3 2 3 5 5 5 3 8 8 8 7 38

Class ABC (10%) 5 5 1 4 3 3 9 9 5 9 4 4 38TOTAL D (61%) 4 1 2 4 4 5 5 5 9 8 7 6 39

D1 (owns res'l lot) (42%) 5 2 3 3 4 6 5 5 8 8 7 6 38D2 (does not own res'l lot) (19%) 1 0 1 5 4 5 5 6 10 9 8 6 41

E (29%) 4 3 1 4 8 5 6 4 4 6 10 6 39

Male(50%)

6 2 2 4 4 4 5 5 8 8 8 5 38

Female (50%) 2 2 2 3 6 6 6 5 6 8 7 7 39

18-24 years old (15%) 0 2 1 5 3 4 7 6 6 9 5 6 4825-34 (25%) 2 2 1 5 4 4 5 5 12 9 5 3 42

35-44 (21%) 6 2 1 2 8 5 7 3 5 10 7 7 3745-54 (18%) 6 3 2 5 4 3 6 5 3 7 12 8 37

55-64 (12%) 5 4 3 1 5 9 3 6 11 5 8 6 3465 & up (8%) 7 1 6 3 7 9 5 8 5 2 11 8 29


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Table 32013 ELECTIONS:

NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCESNovember 23 - 29, 2012 / PhilippinesPage 2 of 2

(Estimated

Population

Demographic variables Percentage) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Total Philippines (100%) 4 2 2 4 5 5 6 5 7 8 8 6 39

No formal educ/elem grad (22%) 9 4 5 3 7 10 6 5 8 7 10 6 21

Some HS (14%) 5 0 0 4 5 6 6 2 8 3 9 3 49Completed HS (35%) 2 2 1 5 5 4 6 6 9 10 6 7 38Vocational (6%) 6 0 0 1 6 6 4 4 3 9 5 4 51Some college (12%) 2 1 1 4 2 2 4 5 3 6 11 4 53Completed coll/post coll (11%) 4 4 1 3 4 3 5 6 5 11 3 10 41

Total Working (52%) 6 2 1 4 5 5 5 4 8 8 9 5 39Government (6%) 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 3 2 8 10 5 56Private (12%) 6 2 1 4 3 6 5 3 13 10 8 4 34Self-employed

(23%) 62 1 4 5 4 7 4 5 6 8 6 40

Farmer/Fisherfolk (12%) 8 1 4 4 7 4 4 3 11 7 11 5 32Not Working (48%) 2 3 2 4 5 6 6 7 6 8 7 7 38

Roman Catholic (88%) 4 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 6 38Iglesia Ni Cristo (1%) 9 7 0 7 3 3 3 7 5 10 0 2 44Aglipayan (0.2%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 17 0 0 65Islam (3%) 7 0 0 3 8 0 6 4 6 3 4 3 56Others (7%) 1 0 2 1 9 5 14 9 5 9 9 3 33

Tagalog (39%) 2 2 2 4 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 5 36Ilocano (5%) 6 0 2 2 3 4 2 4 7 9 16 14 31Pangasinense (---) --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---Kapampangan (5%) 9 5 0 5 9 0 12 5 5 7 5 12 28Bicolano (6%) 9 9 0 9 0 4 0 4 9 13 13 9 23Ilonggo (7%) 4 0 2 7 2 3 7 5 10 6 7 6 41Cebuano (23%) 1 2 4 4 5 4 5 4 8 6 10 3 44Waray (3%) 8 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 17 1 16 43Others (12%) 10 2 0 1 5 9 4 4 5 6 4 3 48


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Pulse Asia November 2012 Survey on Senatorial Preferences