PURPOSE OF DINOKENG

“To create a space and language for open, fl ti d d t t i tireflective and reasoned strategic conversation

among South Africans about possible futures g pfor the country, and the opportunities, risks and h i th f t t ”choices these futures present.”

T H E D I N O K E N G P R O C E S S

WHAT INFORMED THE SCENARIO TEAM’S WORKv

The team is diverse:

v

What they do have in common is:Together, their diversity and shared intent is a core strength of The team is diverse:• It represents a broad spectrum of South African society.

• The members have different backgrounds, experiences and perspectives.

What they do have in common is:

• A deep concern that things are not what they should be in South Africa.

Together, their diversity and shared intent is a core strength of Dinokeng.

g , p p p

• They did not agree on everything!• A commitment to the values of the Constitution.

• A desire to contribute to the construction of a sustainable future.

Convenors (Members of the Scenario Team)

• An acknowledgement of the heritage of our past.

• Graça Machel • Rick Menell • Bob HeadMamphela Ramphele • Vincent Maphai • Njongonkulu Ndungane

Miriam Altman • Moemedi Kepadisa • Yogan Naidoo • Frans Baleni • Reuel Khoza • Maite Nkoana-Mashabane • Haniff Hoosen Ann Bernstein • Kallie Kriel • Thandi • Nkosinathi • Antjie • Thami ka Plaatjie

Scenario Team

Nontenja Biko j

Krog j

• Musa ZondiCheryl Carolus • Mary Malete

• Sonja Sebotsa • Angela Coetzee • Daniel Mminele • Raenette Taljaard

• Jay Naidoo Ryan Coetzee • Namhla Mniki

• Mathatha Tsedu • Paul Hanratty • Aaron Motsoaledi

• Sim Tshabalala

Sponsored by

DINOKENG PROCESS

PHASE IScenario Team

PHASE IICitizens and leadersScenario Team Citizens and leaders

Diverging Emerging Converging

Workshops, research and writingPrivate engagement with key stakeholders

Broad public engagement

08 / 2008 05 / 200908 / 2008 05 / 2009

SOUTH AFRICA IS AT A CROSSROADS

Since 1994 we have made great gains but also serious mistakes.Since 1994 we have made great gains but also serious mistakes.We face severe political, economic and social challenges,exacerbated by a global economic crisis.y gWe are at risk of disintegration and decline.

We are at a critical moment of choice: a crossroads.We are at a critical moment of choice: a crossroads.

Our state is too weak to address these challenges by itself.

We can address our critical challenges if and only if citizens and leadersWe can address our critical challenges if and only if citizens and leadersfrom all sectors (including the state) engage actively and collaboratively.

“Futures are never given They are created ”Futures are never given. They are created.

W H E R E A R E W E T O D A Y ?

OUR ACHIEVEMENTS

Respected ConstitutionEstablished parliamentary democracy

P liti l l li

POLITICAL

Political pluralism

Regular free and fair elections – 2009 elections a sign of a maturing democracy

“Our Constitution is heralded as one of the greatest in the world.”

Independent and vigilant media

Independent judiciaryCivilian control over army

f g

Independent and vigilant mediaCulture of human rights

Reconnected with rest of Africa

OUR ACHIEVEMENTS

POLITICAL

ECONOMICMacro-economic stabilityNet new jobs = 3.5 millionSustained economic growth rates

Fi l & t li d

Steady increase in expenditure onsocial servicesECONOMIC

Progressive economic reforms

Reduced unemployment (30% to 23%)

Fiscal & monetary policy prudencesocial services

p y

Improved credit ratingsReduced international debt

OUR ACHIEVEMENTS

Decrease in violent contact crimesPOLITICAL

ECONOMICIncreased access to services

ECONOMIC

SOCIAL Expanded Public Works ProgrammesIncreased social expenditure

Expanded public housing programmesPoverty alleviation - Social grants to 13 million

p p g p g

OUR ACHIEVEMENTS

POLITICAL

ECONOMIC

Increased Education budget

Increased access to schools and universitiesECONOMIC

SOCIAL

and universities

Increase in Matric pass rateIncreased allocation to no fee schools

EDUCATION

“A nation is built on its people, its skills, and its p p , ,education system.”

OUR ACHIEVEMENTS

Increased Health budgetIncreased access to primary health care

POLITICAL

ECONOMIC health careECONOMIC

SOCIALImproved child immunization – now 85%

EDUCATION

HEALTHHEALTH

OUR CHALLENGES

Single party dominance and

POLITICAL• Do we have the will to build one nation across racial and class divides?weak, fragmented opposition

Weak leadership in all sectors

across racial and class divides?• How do we manage race in a non-racial society?Wh t

Lack of state capacity and accountability

• What are our common characteristics?• What have been the unintended

f ?Weak sense of common nationhood and common destiny

consequences of AA and BEE?• Have we drawn on the skills and talents of all South Africans?

“Let’s stop the motorcades. It should be an honour to be

i th bli i ”

“There must be no compromise on mediocrity masquerading as

leadership ”in the public service.”leadership.”

OUR CHALLENGES

Global economic crisis & declining

ECONOMIC

domestic growth

“Our crossroads is locatedForeign investment expected to decline in emerging markets

High unemployment & skills crisis

High current account deficit

“Our crossroads is located within a global crossroads.”in emerging markets

High current account deficit- 8.1% of GDP in 2008

Currency volatility“We have never had the tough

economic conversations.”

Cost of failure to truly transform the economy

Failure of effective land reform

OUR CHALLENGES

• Within racial groupsA i l g

Persistent poverty 40% of households extremely poor

SOCIAL• High unemployment• High prevalence of HIV/Aids• Across racial groups• Between classes• Between genders

Gi i C ffi i bl k

- 40% of households extremely poor

Inequality and low inter-group trust

• High prevalence of HIV/Aids• Drug abuse• Domestic violence

Racism xenophobia and continued • Gini Coefficient among blackpeople risen from 0.55 (1994) to0.59 (2008)Issues facing our Youth

Racism, xenophobia and continued racial polarisation

Failure of government to ensure citizen safety

High levels of violence against women “You can’t participate in the “50% of 20 24 year oldsand children

Weakening social capital & social cohesion- exacerbated by unemployment and poverty

p peconomy or in politics if you are

concerned with survival.”

“50% of 20-24 year olds are unemployed.”- exacerbated by unemployment and poverty

OUR CHALLENGES

EDUCATIONLack of quality in many areas

“Number Last” in Maths & Science

Nearly half of schools still lack Nearly half of schools still lack critical

infrastructureAcute skills shortages and lack Acute skills shortages and lack of accountability

High school drop-out rates g p- only 29% leave with Matric Certificate

OUR CHALLENGES

Decreasing life expectancy

HEALTH• 56 infant deaths per 1,000 live

births in 2006 (45 in 1990)- from 63 in 1990 to 50 in 2007

4th highest prevalence of HIV/Aids

births in 2006 (45 in 1990)

• 400 maternal deaths per

100,000

Increase in infant and maternal

live births in 2005 (80 in 1997)4th highest prevalence of TB

Increase in infant and maternal mortality rates

Acute skills shortages and lack Acute skills shortages and lack of accountability “People don’t believe that

medicines will be in the clinics”

OUR MOST CRITICAL CHALLENGES

Unemployment and poverty

Education

Unemployment and poverty

Safety and security

Health

… and the building of a common sense of Nationhood.

If we don’t get things right in these areas, it will be hard for us to succeed at anythingfor us to succeed at anything.

WHAT UNDERLIES THESE CHALLENGES

Pre 1994 legacies:

• Inherited deep structural flaws in economic, social and political systems

• A citizenry that is disengaging and

Three inter-related trends that have

becoming increasingly dependent on the state.

• Inherited a culture of mediocrity and entitlement from the apartheid and

Three inter related trends that have manifested themselves since 1994:

entitlement from the apartheid and liberation cultures.

• Weak and diminishing state capacity and bl an unaccountable government.

• A leadership that reflects a culture of materialism and self-interest, and a lack of ethics and accountability.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

How can we address our critical challenges before they become time bombsthat destroy our achievements?

Three possible ways this question can be answered; three possible paths intoth f tthe future:

- Scenario 1:Walk Apart

- Scenario 2:Walk Behind

- Scenario 3:Walk Togetherg

S C E N A R I O S

WHAT ARE SCENARIOS?

Scenarios are not predictions; they describe possible pathways into aScenarios are not predictions; they describe possible pathways into afuture; our future will not necessarily be purely one or the other.

Scenarios must berelevant, challenging, plausible and clear.

The seeds of the future exist in the present - but our future is notThe seeds of the future exist in the present - but our future is not

pre-ordained; our future depends on the choices we make today.

SCENARIO 1

WALKSCENARIO 1

WALKAPARTAPART

SCENARIO 1: WALK APART

2015 - 2017T d

2009 - 2011TOMORROW IS

THE SHADOWS LENGTHEN

Today

2012 - 20142018 - 2020

TOMORROW IS THE SAME AS YESTERDAY

TINKERINGAROUND THE EDGES RULE OF THE

STRONGMAN

Ruling party retains majority.

S O G

Cronyism and corruption in government appointments and tenders.Crime increases: private security guards outnumber police 3 to 1.The cracks widen; budget deficit balloons; delivery worsens.

Global crisis leads to declining investment, growth and tax revenues.

C i i t b t g t l b d b i f il

Education and health care deteriorate.

Rift between government and citizens.

p y g p

Criminal justice system becomes more inefficient because of cronyism and corruption.

Unions lobby government to increase the minimum wage

; g ; y

Elites buy their way out and poor people lose patience.

Gangs, self-appointed mayors and taxi associations rule local areas.Crisis pact between government, labour and business fails.

Government expands the Public Works Programme to create jobs.

Citizens get restless and government increases social grants.

Government increases social grants and civil servant pay: social grant recipients now outnumber taxpayers.

Ruling party wins elections with reduced majority.

Unions lobby government to increase the minimum wage.

Investment shrinks further; unemployment grows.

Service delivery fails; alternative modes of delivery develop and shadowy

“Strongman” wins election, outcome contested.

Protests spiral and government declares state of emergency.2020Citizens get restless and government increases social grants.Ruling party wins elections with reduced majority.

forces become more powerful.

WALK APART: What the papers say

MESSAGE OF WALK APART

If we fail to address our critical economic and social

challenges and to strengthen the state, citizens will disengage further.

Pockets of alternative control and delivery by unaccountable groups outside the state delivery by unaccountable groups outside the state will develop.

Our country will decline and disintegrate rapidly.

SCENARIO 2

WALKWALKBEHINDBEHIND

SCENARIO 2: WALK BEHIND

2015 - 2017Today

2009 - 2011

2015 2017

ACCELERATING

STATE BACKS “WINNERS”

2012 - 2014 2018 - 2020DEVELOPMENT

DISPELLING DARK CLOUDS THE TIDE TURNS

Ruling party retains majority.

Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax

Job losses mount as global crisis bites harder; government spreads social welfare net.Government accelerates large-scale infrastructure programme to boost development.Prescribed asset laws alienate business: investment contracts and unemployment worsens.Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax revenues.

Government commits to continued investment in large infrastructure projects – debt rises.

Government increases tax rates, freezes civil service wages.

National Economic Summit results in Growth and Investment Accord.

Government feels skills shortage as it tries to develop key high-tech SOEs – “winners”.

Improvement of skills through better education and artisan training is prioritised, but the returns are insufficient.

State borrows at high interest rates to fund growing deficit.

Election run on “Growth and Redistribution” ticket.

Country gets IMF loan conditional on sharp cut back in state Government tries to boost its capacity through greater coordination and training.

Expanded Public Works Programmes create more unskilled jobs.

Election campaign run on “pro-poor” platform.

Ruling party victory taken as mandate for even stronger state intervention in economy

s p o t sed, but t e etu s a e su c e t

Some “winners” become “losers”, with heavy costs to the fiscus.

Prescribed asset laws force private investment in large projects.

Country gets IMF loan conditional on sharp cut-back in state expenditure.

Widespread discontent and protests: government cracks down.

2020

p g jte e t o eco o y

WALK BEHIND: What the papers say

MESSAGE OF WALK BEHIND

State-led development requires the capacity for planning State-led development requires the capacity for planning, coordination and delivery.

L l t t j t i Large-scale state projects require heavy borrowings.

State directed investment weakens private initiative and state control creates citizen dependency.

Pervasive state intervention and control is thereforePervasive state intervention and control is therefore

unsustainable.

SCENARIO 3

WALKSCENARIO 3

WALKTOGETHERTOGETHER

SCENARIO 3: WALK TOGETHER

Ruling party retains majority.Healthcare and parent associations spread through the country.Economy begins slow recovery but insufficient to deal with deepening povertyGovernment focuses on delivering core public goods.

2020g p y j y

Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax revenues.

Crisis pact wobbles along.

p p g y

Government promises action against incompetent managers and civil servants.

Improvements in service delivery

poverty.

A “Citizens’ Charter” is born.

A formal social pact emerges: it includes political parties, labour, business citizens’ groups

g p g

Business invests more, employment rises.

International investor confidence buoyed by co-operative governance.

Service delivery deteriorates.

Pockets of citizen groups take action over health, education, crime.

Improvements in service delivery.

Ruling party runs election campaign on ticket of competent government.

A k d li i d i f lli i h

business, citizens groups.

Business shoulders more responsibility in education, infrastructure, health.

Trade unions back measures to combat youth unemployment

Citizens lobby for more accountability from politicians; opposition parties take up the call.

Citizens, parliamentarians and courts effect change in voting system i i i iA weakened ruling party is returned to power; it forms alliance with

other parties.Trade unions back measures to combat youth unemployment.

Citizens work with government to monitor education, health, crime.

so politicians are directly accountable to voters.

2012 - 20142018 - 2020

BUILDING A

2009 - 2011

2012 2014

THE BLEAK YEARS

CITIZENS DEMAND MORE

BUILDING A NATION

2015 - 2017

YEARS

A SOCIAL PACT EMERGESToday

WALK TOGETHER : What the papers say

MESSAGE OF WALK TOGETHER

W dd iti l i d i l h ll g l if civil We can address our critical economic and social challenges only if civil society, business, labour and the state engage and cooperate.

Together we need to increase accountability, build the capacity of the state,

deliver core public services, and develop a common identity and

ti h d

We can succeed only if citizens and

nationhood.

e ca succeed o y c t e s a dleaders from all sectors rise above theirnarrow self-interests and contribute

t b ildi tipurposefully to building our nation.

COMPARISON OF THE SCENARIOS

W H A T ’ S N E X T ?

WHAT WILL YOU CHOOSE?

The three scenarios suggest three different possible futures for South gg pAfrica.

We are standing at a crossroads; each one of us, citizens and leaders, must g ; , ,choose how we walk forward.

Through the choices each one of us make we will create our nation’s Through the choices each one of us make, we will create our nation s future.

Wh t ill h d ? Wh ? H ? With h ?What will you choose to do? When? How? With whom?

What will your next step be?

DINOKENG PHASE II PLAN

Share the messages of the Dinokeng Scenarios with leaders and citizens.

Reach organisations, groups and communities across the country.

i t i lUse various material – reports, translations, opinion pieces, fact-sheets, DVD.

Extend targeted engagements – briefings, presentations, workshops.

Co-ordinate mass communications – print TV, radio, website.

Desired Result - to create spaces and a language for, open, reflective and reasonedes ed esu t to c eate spaces a d a a guage o , ope , e ect e a d easo edstrategic conversation among South Africans about possible futures for the country, and theopportunities, risks and choices these futures present.

What can you and I do to respond to these scenarios and to build a better future for South Africa?

“If you want to walk fast, walk alone.If you want to walk far walk together ”If you want to walk far, walk together.

(African Proverb)