PV MAGAZINE WEBINAR€¦ · 04/08/2020 · PV MAGAZINE WEBINAR DAVID DIXON, SENIOR ANALYST –AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES ... Concept 2. DA Application 3. DA Approved 4. Financial Close

PV MAGAZINE WEBINAR

DAVID DIXON, SENIOR ANALYST – AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES

04/08/2020

Contents

Source: Rystad Energy

1) The pipeline2) The players3) The outlook

Australia utility PV, wind and storage pipeline: 9/7/2020

Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube

173 GWAC

903 Assets

~1/10 projects reach Financial

Close

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Solar PV

Onshore wind

Lithium ion batteries

Pumped storage

Hydrogen Electrolyser

GWAC

1. Concept2. DA Application3. DA Approved4. Financial Close5. Construction6. Operating

138 Assets25 GWAC

502 Assets72 GWAC

Utility PV Developers & OEMs – Competition or concentration characterises the key stakeholders


0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Neoen

WIRSOL

John Laing

FRV

Octopus Investments

MWAC

Top 5 Utility PV Developers

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200

Canadian Solar

Jinko

First Solar

JA Solar

Longi

MWAC

Top 5 Panel Suppliers

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

NEXTracker

Array Technologies

Arctech

IDEEMATEC

Soltec

MWAC

Top 5 Tracker Suppliers

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000

SMA

Ingeteam

Schneider

Huawei

Power Electronics

MWAC

Top 5 Inverter Suppliers

Utility PV EPCs


0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000

RCR Tomlinson

Downer

Sterling & Wilson

Biosar

Signal Energy

Bouygues

UGL

Beon Energy Solutions

Elecnor

Decmil

Gransolar

First Solar

Shanghai Electric Power Design

Risen Energy

Lendlease

MWAC

Western Downs4. Financial Close5. Construction6. Operating

Australia utility battery developers


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

HPR

Sta

ge 1

Wan

doan

Sou

th

HPR

Sta

ge 2

Kood

aide

ri M

ine

New

man

Bat

tery

York

e Pe

nins

ula

Balla

rat

GES

S

Lake

Bon

ney

Bulg

ana

MW

AC

Utility batteries > 20 MWAC, coloured by battery system supplier

TeslaSamsung-ABBKokam-ABBFluence (LG-PE)Yet to be announced

0 50 100 150 200

Neoen

Vena Energy

Rio Tinto

Alinta

AusNet

ElectraNet

Infigen Energy

EDL

Edify Energy

WIRSOL

MWAC

Top 10 utility battery developers, coloured by asset

Hornsdale Power Reserve Stage 1

Wandoan South

Hornsdale Power Reserve Stage 2

Koodaideri Mine Solar Farm

Newman Battery Storage Project

Yorke Peninsula

Ballarat

Gannawarra Energy Storage System

Lake Bonney

Bulgana Green Power Hub

Agnew Mine Hybrid Project

De Grussa

Mallacoota Area Grid Storage

Key Drivers: Utility PVa) Continued cost reductionsb) Module and inverter technology advancing

rapidly

Challenges: Utility PV

a) Saturation effect -> reduced wholesale prices

b) Grid: Network capacity / MLFs / system strength

c) Harder to find offtake

Key Drivers: Batteriesa) Economics already favourable in off-grid market.b) Government programs / Grants: NSW, VIC, ACT,

ARENAc) 5 minute settlement ruled) Battery cost reductionse) System security

Challenges: Batteries

a) FCAS: Small market, uncertain revenue

b) Arbitrage too expensive, uncertain revenue

c) Not all services valued, e.g. inertia, FFR

d) Security services typically monetised through regulated TNSPs, e.g. SIPs

Key Drivers / Challenges

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Transgrid 2020 Annual Transmission Planning Report

Bannerton

Beryl

Broken Hill

Bungala Phase 1

Clare

Clermont

Coleambally

Collinsville

Darling Downs

Daydream

Emerald (RES)

Gannawarra

Griffith

Hamilton

Haughton Stage 1

Hayman

Karadoc

Kidston

Lilyvale Manildra

Moree

Numurkah

Nyngan

Oakey

Parkes

Ross River

Rugby Run Stage 1

Sun Metals

Susan River

Tailem Bend

Wemen

Whitsunday

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%

19/2

0 Fi

nanc

ial Y

ear A

C C

F (%

)

19/20 FY MLF

Grid: Poor position but not constrained (… yet)

Equipment failures or impact of non technical risks (e.g. negative pricing)

Multiple challenges: Grid Position (constrained), negative pricing, equipment failures

The sweetspot (…for now)

Short term forecast: Utility PV, wind and storage


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

GW

AC

Year Commissioning Complete

Solar PVOnshore windLithium

Rystad Energy is an independent energy consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for energy companies and suppliers, investors, investment banks, organizations, and governments. Rystad Energy’s headquarters are located in Oslo, Norway.

HeadquartersRystad EnergyFjordalléen 16, 0250 Oslo, Norway

Americas +1 (281)-231-2600 EMEA +47 908 87 700 Asia Pacific +65 690 93 715

Email: [email protected]

© Copyright. All rights reserved.

Short Term Forecast: Utility PV, wind and storage


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

GW

AC

Year Commissioning Complete

6. Operating5. Construction4. Financial Close3. DA Approved


Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ballarat EnergyStorage System

(2018)

Lake BonneyEnergy Storage

(2018)

GannawarraEnergy StorageSystem (2018)

Hornsdale Phase2 (2019)

Yorke Peninsula(2019)

CAP

EX/k

Wh

(AU

D/k

Wh)

CAP

EX (M

MAU

D)

Project Funded ARENA Funded CAPEX



88.5 GWAC

544 Assets


Close

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Solar PV

Onshore wind


Pumped storage


GWAC




144 GWAC

798 Assets


Close

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Solar PV

Onshore wind


Pumped storage


GWAC


Key Drivers: Utility PVa) Continued cost reductionsb) Module and inverter technology advancing

rapidly

Challenges: Utility PV

a) Saturation effect -> reduced wholesale prices

b) Grid: Network capacity / MLFs / system strength

c) Harder to find offtake

Key Drivers: Batteriesa) Economics already favourable in off-grid market.b) Government programs / Grants: NSW, VIC, ACT,

ARENAc) 5 minute settlement ruled) Battery cost reductionse) System security

Challenges: Batteries

a) FCAS: Small market, uncertain revenue

b) Arbitrage too expensive, uncertain revenue

c) Not all services valued, e.g. inertia, FFR

d) Security services typically monetised through regulated TNSPs, e.g. SIPs


Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, Transgrid 2020 Annual Transmission Planning Report

0 capacity

100 MW

400 MW

Documents

PV MAGAZINE WEBINAR€¦ · 04/08/2020 · PV MAGAZINE WEBINAR DAVID DIXON, SENIOR ANALYST –AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES ... Concept 2. DA Application 3. DA Approved 4. Financial Close