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LFS Asset Management Restoring America’s Financial Independence– One Client at a Time The informaƟon, tools and services presented in this document are provided to you for informaƟonal purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an oer of the solicitaƟon or an oer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securiƟes or other nancial instruments. The informaƟon contained herein has been derived from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Investors should consider this informaƟon as only a single factor in making their investment decision. AcƟon taken by an investor should be based on their personal investment objecƟves and risk tolerance. Further informaƟon on any security or nancial instrument menƟoned herein is available upon request. Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016

Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016 · 2019. 3. 7. · 2.4% away from hitting its old high. 6. Defensive asset classes are 2 of 3 in terms of relative strength. In my view, Relative Strength

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Page 1: Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016 · 2019. 3. 7. · 2.4% away from hitting its old high. 6. Defensive asset classes are 2 of 3 in terms of relative strength. In my view, Relative Strength

LFS Asset Management Restoring America’s Financial Independence–

One Client at a Time

The informa on, tools and services presented in this document are provided to you for informa onal purposes only and are not

to be used or considered as an offer of the solicita on or an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securi es or other financial

instruments. The informa on contained herein has been derived from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to

accuracy. Investors should consider this informa on as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Ac on taken by

an investor should be based on their personal investment objec ves and risk tolerance. Further informa on on any security or

financial instrument men oned herein is available upon request.

Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016

Page 2: Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016 · 2019. 3. 7. · 2.4% away from hitting its old high. 6. Defensive asset classes are 2 of 3 in terms of relative strength. In my view, Relative Strength

1st Quarter 2016 News

AprilisFinancialLiteracyMonthandLFSAssetManagementiscommittedtoFinancialLiteracy…JohnLauwillbespeakingbeforetheCaliforniaSocietyofCPAs(CalCPA)EducationFoundationinJune,JulyandAugustinaseriesofeducationalprogramsforlocalCPAsandFinancialAdvisors.Johnwillpresentonavarietyoftopics,fromStockOptionstoSurvivingthePerfectRetirementStormintoday’smarketconditions.

JohnwillalsobeapresenterattheNorthernCaliforniaHumanResourcesAssociation(NCHRA)CompensationConferenceinMay,2016.John’spresentationwillbeonhelpingHRpersonneltounderstandEmployeeEquityCompensationPlans.

LFSalsooffersfinancialeducationworkshopsinpartnershipwithlocallibrariesandseniorcentersthroughFinancialAptitudeTraining(FiAT).Visitourwebsitewww.lfsfinance.com/eventsforthecurrentschedule.Upcomingworkshopsinclude:“FamilyLoveLetter”,“SurvivingThePerfectRetirementStorm”,“HowtoProtectYourPortfolioinaDownMarket”,“DisinheritingtheIRSFromYourRetirementAccounts”and“MaximizeYourSocialSecurityBenefits”.

Didyouknow…?InadditiontoourGeneralPublicworkshops,FiAToffersFinancialLiteracyprogramsattheworkplace.Theseprogramsareavailableatnochargetothecompanyortheemployees,andcanbecustomizedtoaddressyourcompany’sspecificbenefitspackage,orchangestoyourbenefitspackage.Employersalsomaychoosefromavarietyofworkshopsonhelpingworkingadultsprepareforretirement,maximizingthepowerofcompany401(k)s,andunderstandingthepowerofequitycompensationplans.IfyouwouldlikeinformationsenttoyouforyourHRdepartment,pleasecontactmeat650.401.4663,andfeelfreetovisitourwebsiteatwww.fiatprogram.org.

FreeFinancialEducationResources:thereisawealthofeducationalinformationonourwebsite.Visitwww.lfsfinance.com/resources/whereyouwillfindwebinarreplays,WhitePaperReports,andmore.

VisitLFSUpdatesonourwebsiteHomePageforourlatestupdates‐whetherit’savolatiletradingdayorafewtweakstothewebsite.

Asalways,weappreciateyourbusiness,anditisourpleasuretoserveyou.Warmregards,

DianaCasonVPofMarketing

The2016FinancialLiteracyandEntrepreneurshipSummerCampprogramwillbeheldatSt.MatthewsCatholicSchoolonJuly11ththroughJuly15th.TheSummerCampProgramisproducedbyFiAT,thecommunityoutreacharmofLFSAssetManagement,aregistered501(c)(3)organization.Theprogramissupportedentirelybydonations,anddonationsarenowfullytaxdeductible.Wewelcomeyourfinancialcontributions,andyoucandonateonthewebsiteatwww.fiatprogram.org/donate.

MonthlyWineandCheeseGathering‐StopbyourofficeonthelastFridayofeverymonth,from2pmto4:30pm,forwine,cheeseandconversation.JoinusonApril29th.—RSVPat650.401.4663.

Page 3: Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016 · 2019. 3. 7. · 2.4% away from hitting its old high. 6. Defensive asset classes are 2 of 3 in terms of relative strength. In my view, Relative Strength

ByJohnLau,Certi iedFinancialPlanner®,CPA,M.S.(Tax)

April15,2016

ThequarterendingMarch31,2016canbecharacterizedbyoneword–VOLATILITY.Afterstartingoffwithaviolent irstweekoftrading,themarketcontinuedinitsdivebeforesettlingatthemid‐Februarylows.

My long time clientsknow that I track the relative strengthsof sixmajor asset classeswith technical analysistools. These classes includeUSEquities, International Equities, Commodities, Fixed‐Income securities, ForeignCurrencies,andCash.Thisisthefoundationofmytacticalallocationapproach.Forthe irsttimesinceOctober2011,USEquitiesfelloutofthe irstplacepositionandwerereplacedbyFixedIncome.TherewasatimewhenUSEquitiesfellevenbeneathCash,droppingtothirdplace,behindFixedIncomeandCash.USEquitiesstayedbeneathCashupuntilMarch22,whenitmanagedtomovebackintosecondplace.AsofApril8,2016,theU.S.Equitiesgroupisbarelyekingoutasmallwinovercash1.

WhatMyMarketGaugesAreTellingMeToday?

SincethemarketlowonFebruary11,2016,thebenchmarkS&P500Indexisup11.95%.It'sahugemoveinashorttime.Andithaslotsoffolksaskingiftheworstisbehindus...andifthebullmarketisback.AtLFS,Iamcurrentlytrackingsixmarketgaugestohelpmeanswerthesequestions.InthisQ1/2016update,I’llshowyouwhattheyare…andhowIinterpretthemtohelpplanmytradingstrategiesgoingforward:

1.PositiveTrendIndicatorsBelow50%: Trendanalysisisoneofthecornerstonesintechnicalmarketanalysis.Positivetrend(PT)

indicators are based on thepremise that the greater thenumber of stocks trading in anoverallpositivetrend,thehealthierthemarketis,andpositivetrendscanbedeterminedbycalculatingthenumberofstockstradingabovetheirrespectivebullishsupportline,usingthebullishpercentconcept.Byde inition, thePercentPositiveTrend indicatorsmeasurethe%ofstockswithinagivenuniversethataretradinginapositivetrend,andthisnumberisthenplottedonascaleof0to100%.Historically,themarketisgenerallyhealthywhenthe Percent Positive Trend indicators are at 50% or greater. Generally speaking, themarket tends tosufferduring timeswhen thePT reading(s) arebelow50%.At the timeof thiswriting, approximately46%of thestocks that tradeon theNYSEare inanoverall positive trend.When lookingatotherPTindicators,IseethatthePTreadingforallU.S.equities(PTALL)isat38%.Simplyput,atthisjuncturethetrend picture for the individual stocks thatmake up "themarket" is tipped toward the bearish camp,lashingwarningsigns.

1Technical trading models are mathema cally driven based upon historical data and trends of domes c and foreign market trading ac vity, including various

industry and sector trading sta s cs within such markets. Technical trading models, through mathema cal algorithms, a empt to iden fy when markets are likely to increase or decrease and iden fy appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends, and there is no assurance that the mathema cal algorithms employed are designed properly, updated with new data, and can accurately predict future market, industry, and sector performance.

Q1/2016 Market Review and Outlook

Page 4: Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016 · 2019. 3. 7. · 2.4% away from hitting its old high. 6. Defensive asset classes are 2 of 3 in terms of relative strength. In my view, Relative Strength

2.MarketBullishPercentindicatorshowing60%participation: Anothersigntowatchfor,toindicateadeterioratingmarket,isthemarketBullishPercent.

TheBullishPercentindicatorsare"participation"measurements,andstrictlyspeakingtheymeasure the%of stockswithin a givenuniverse (suchas theNewYorkStockExchange)that are showing Buy Signals. The participation rate for stocks on theNYSE (BPNYSE) iscurrentlyat60%,withBullcon irmed.Thismeans60%ofthestocksontheNYSEare

participatinginthemarketrally.TheBullishPercentindicatoris lashinggreenforthemarket. 3.S&P500Indexsettlingaboveits200‐DayMovingAverage: The 200‐daymoving average is an indicator used by inancial professionals to size up a

market'slong‐termtrend.Itworksbycollectinganasset'sclosingpricesfromthepast200days,thentakingtheaverageofthoseprices.Themarket’srallysinceMarchhaspushedtheS&PIndexaboveits200‐daymovingaverage(seechartbelow).Thisisanencouragingsign,anothergreenlightforthemarket.

4.S&P500200‐DayMovingAveragebigpictureisstilldown: While stocks can bounce up and down violently, they tend to follow the path of the

200‐Daymovingaverageforextendedperiodsoftime.Whiletheindexiscurrentlyabovethe200‐Daymovingaverage,theaverageitselfisstillatadowntrend,thusdampeninganyeuphoria causedby the index’s current reading. The S&P500'smove above its 200‐daymovingaverageisencouraging,butfornow,thedownsideriskinstocksislargerthantheupsidepotential.

Page 5: Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016 · 2019. 3. 7. · 2.4% away from hitting its old high. 6. Defensive asset classes are 2 of 3 in terms of relative strength. In my view, Relative Strength

5.S&PstillbelowitsMay2015highof2131 MyotherbullmarketgaugeistheMay2015highof2131.Inmyview,surpassingthis

old high is an important psychological barrier. A move above 2,131 would meaninvestorsbelievethemarketrallyis inallysustainable.Ifthestockmarketweretobreakabove2,131, itwouldgoa longwaytowardrepairingfaith intheeconomyandthestockmarket.Evenaftertherecent doubledigitmovehigher, theS&P500isstill2.4%awayfromhittingitsoldhigh.

6.Defensiveassetclassesare2of3intermsofrelativestrength. Inmyview,RelativeStrengthisstilloneofthemostrobustandadaptablemethodsof

securityandassetclassanalysis.Muchlikecomparingastockagainstanindex,wecancompareanindexagainstanotherindextodeterminetheoverallstrengthofaparticularareaofthemarketorassetclass.

In adeterioratingmarket, defensive asset classes ( ixed‐income securities, currencies,andcash) typicallygive relative strengthbuy signalsoveroffensiveasset classes (U.S.equities,internationalequities,andcommodities.)Defensiveclasseshavelowerbetavalues

andlower‘risk’thanoffensiveassetclasses. Today,twoofthethreetopassetclassesinthetechnicalanalysesthatIfollowaredefensive,withthe

topassetclassbeing ixed‐incomesecurities,followedbyU.S.equities,thencloselyfollowedbycash.

WithonlytwoofsixBullmarketgauges lashinggreenlights,itisstilltimetobecautious.

OneofmymostadmiredinvestorswasSirJohnTempleton.Templeton'sphilosophyisoneIwanttoemulate.Hewashappytoholdhighlevelsofcashandbondswhencheapstockswerehardtocomeby.Hewasnotamarkettimer,buthestucktohispositions,evenifthismeanttrailingthemarketwhenitwentnuts.Andthatiswherewearetoday.Weareholdingplentyofcashwhilekeepingawatchfuleyeoutforcheapbuthighqualitystocks,andusingtoolssuchasoptionstohedgeriskandtakeadvantageofopportunities.Thefactis,evenwithallthetoolsandindicatorstogaugethemarket,attheend,wedon'tknowhowthemarketwillbehave,andwewon'tknowuntilwedoknow.However,wewilladaptalongtheway...wewillalwaysadapt.

ToyourHealth,Wealth,andHappiness…

Sincerely,

JohnLauManagingDirectorCerti iedFinancialPlanner®,CPA,M.S.(Tax)

Page 6: Q-1 Portfolio Review /2016 · 2019. 3. 7. · 2.4% away from hitting its old high. 6. Defensive asset classes are 2 of 3 in terms of relative strength. In my view, Relative Strength

LFSAssetManagement

RestoringAmerica’sFinancialIndependence–OneClientataTime

Phone:(650)344‐1700

Email: inancialtips@lfs inance.comwww.lfs inance.com

577AirportBlvd,Suite150,Burlingame,CA94010

AdvisoryservicesofferedthroughLFSAssetManagementSecuritiesofferedthroughGirardSecurities,Inc.MemberFINRA,SIPCLFSAssetManagementisnotaf iliatedwithGirardSecurities,Inc.

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JohnLauistheprincipalandManagingDirectorofLFSAssetManagement(RegisteredInvestmentAdvisor).JohnisaCerti iedFinancialPlanner®,CPA,andvolunteersforFiAT,alocalFinancialLiteracyprogram.Johnisapublishedauthorandhislatestbookistitled"ARaceBetweenTimeandMoney.“

www.aracebetween meandmoney.com