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Sensitivity: Internal
Q1 2020
ticker symbol: DTAC
24 April 2020Sharad Merohtra, CEODilip Pal, CFO
Sensitivity: Open
2
Pre-COVID performance in line with targets/ambitions
Early signs that increased economic distress is leading to spending
optimization across customer segments
Impact from the outbreak mainly on tourist, acquisition and outbound
roaming
We are taking actions to mitigate downside, while leveraging opportunity
to accelerate digitization
Q120 operational highlights
Sensitivity: Open
A good quarter despite the impact from an unprecedented crisis
3
Momentum on postpaid continues, prepaid competition pick-up
• Network NPS trending positively
• Network complaints stable vs. Q419
• OpenSignal and Tutela awards
• Continued YoY growth in service revenue excl. IC
• Postpaid momentum continues with relatively stable competition
• Heightened competition in prepaid
Accelerate B2B focus to deliver growth story
• Another quarter with sequential growth in service revenue excl. IC* and active subs
• Won Aerothai Connectivity project
Continue strengthening customer experience on network
5xNetwork NPS
Mar-20 vs. Mar-19
-51%% drop in network complaints
Mar-20 vs. Mar-19
#1
4G download speedNov-19
+2.6%Service revenue excl. IC
growth YoY in Q120
+9.0%Postpaid revenue growth YoY
in Q120
-6.3%Prepaid revenue growth YoY
in Q120
+15%Service revenue excl. IC*
growth YoY in Q120
+37%Active subs growth YoY in
Q120
* Excl. revenue from bulk SMS
Sensitivity: Open
However, Q120 results have been affected by the COVID outbreak, mainly tourist, acquisition and outbound roaming
4
Decline in prepaid revenue primarily from loss of active users in tourist segment
Significant decline in gross adds for both prepaid & postpaid post-shop closure in March
Postpaid roaming revenue drop from less number of outbound travelers
Sensitivity: Open
COVID-19 outbreak is having deep impact on Thai people and economy
5
What do we see in terms of customer behavior
• Network volume increase and more importantly shifted to residential areas
• Surge in call center and digital channels
• Early indication of spending optimization across customer segments
First country with cases outside China
Economic growth revision
-5.3% (BoT) or -5% (IMF)
A significant drop expected in foreign
tourist arrivals
Various government measures put in place
What is happening in Thailand
Sensitivity: Open
We implemented a set of initiatives to remain close to customers while ensuring safety of our employees
6
Partnerships to support society
• Offers for all prepaid and postpaid customers under the “Happy@Home” campaign
• Special price plan to support online learning for student and lecturer customers
• Business Survival Solutions specifically designed for B2B customers to save their costs
• Majority of call center agents working remotely from home to support customers
• Ensuring sufficient network capacityin critical places
• Working with different parts of Governments to enable connectivity measures, facilitate information dissemination to the public and limit spread of virus
• Empowering civil society by facilitating donations and relief efforts
Taking care of employees
• Business Continuity Plan to ensure smooth business operations
• Keeping close communication with employees with periodic situation updates and occasional advices
• Various initiatives to support employees (e.g. alternate workplace, COVID-19 insurance, moratorium on employee loans, measures taken in the frontline)
Connecting customers to what matters most
Sensitivity: Open
This crisis is accelerating some long-term trends
7
Step-up digital sales and services
Automation of back-office processes to continue
Flexible way of working
Rationalized CAPEX and OPEX plans
Sensitivity: Open
8
Higher speed and lower latencies than mid-band
Enables new use cases requiring fiber-like speeds
Standard 5G band in Germany, UK, Spain, France and many more
WIP for 5G on 26 GHz in limited locations early Q320(subject to further development of COVID-19 situation)
Planned 5G launch in Q420(subject to acquisition of 700 MHz license)
26 GHz
We also won 26 GHz from the multi-band auction, strengthening our spectrum portfolio and bringing us on a 5G journey
Currently focus on overall network performance(to support stay@home consumption)
Sensitivity: Internal
Q1 2020
ticker symbol: DTAC
24 April 2020Sharad Merohtra, CEODilip Pal, CFO
Sensitivity: Open
10
Continued YoY growth in service revenue excl. IC (+2.6% YoY in Q120)
Healthy EBITDA & net profit development
Significant increase in data usage close to now 16 GB per sub per month
Adoption of TFRS 9
Q120 financial highlights
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16
Sensitivity: Open
Normalized sub base reduced from aggressive competition in prepaid while monthly active users dropped from COVID-19 impact
11
Subscribers (mm)
14.5 14.3 14.0 14.2 13.5
6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.2
20.7 20.6 20.4 20.6 19.6
20.4 20.3 20.1 20.3 19.6
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Prepaid Postpaid Normalized base
-5.3%
-4.9%
Monthly active users
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Ma
r-19
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct
-19
No
v-19
De
c-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Ma
r-2
0
• One-time clean-up of postpaid subscription reporting in Q120
• Normalized sub loss 697K QoQ in Q120 (prepaid -744K, postpaid +47K)
• Postpaid subs accounted for 31.4% of total sub base as of Q120
• Regardless of the fluctuation of sub base during the past quarters, we have seen stabilized trend on monthly active users
• With impact from COVID-19, there was a drop in monthly active users primarily from tourists and migrants
A drop from COVID-19 impact
Sensitivity: Open
9.3 10.5 11.7 12.8 15.8
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Data usage hiked from people working from home, driven by video conferencing and delivery apps
12
Data usage (GB/sub/month)
Top apps based on usage volume*
+69.5%
+23.9%
* Based on internet usage on dtac’s network during Feb-Mar 2020
Top apps based on usage growth*
Social Streaming Communication Online shopping Games1 2 3 4 5
• Increasing network and digital traffic with growing web and app traffic
• Video conferencing and delivery apps having the fastest growth, driven by people working from home
• This resulted in a strong growth in data usage
• Smartphone penetration 86.9%
• Approx. 10 mm subs on 2300 MHz network
Sensitivity: Open
Normalized postpaid ARPU continued its uptrend while prepaid ARPU got affected by COVID-19 and competition
13
• MTR reduction in Q120 partly contributed to a drop in ARPU incl. IC
• Q120 normalized blended ARPU excl. IC was -1.2% QoQ and +6.5% YoY
Blended ARPU (THB/sub/mth)* Postpaid ARPU (THB/sub/mth)* Prepaid ARPU (THB/sub/mth)
522 532 543 546 529
540 551 562 565 543
507 512 519 523 526
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
IC ARPU excl. IC Normalized ARPU excl. IC
• Q120 normalized postpaid ARPU excl. IC was +0.6% QoQ and +3.7% YoY, continuing its uptrend
• Q120 prepaid ARPU excl. IC was -5.9% QoQand -0.1% YoY, affected by COVID-19 outbreak and aggressive competition
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16* Number of average subscribers used in ARPU calculation has been revised to make it in line with the reported subscribers, starting from Q120
+4.7%
-3.3%
-0.9%
-6.6%
+0.5%
-3.9%
238 249
258 258 251
247
258 267 267
258
236 246
254 254 251
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
IC ARPU excl. IC Normalized ARPU excl. IC
130 137 142 138 130
135 142
147 144 134
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
ARPU excl. IC IC
Sensitivity: Open
Continued YoY growth in service revenue excl. IC but slightly dropped QoQ due to COVID-19 impact
14
Service revenue excl. IC (THB bn) Total revenue (THB bn)
14.0 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.7
0.90.8
0.8 0.8 0.614.9 15.2
15.6 15.6 15.3
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Core service revenue Others
15.4 15.7 16.1 16.1 15.8
2.1 2.0 1.7 2.71.7
1.8 2.3 2.52.6
2.6
19.4 20.0 20.321.4
20.1
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Service rev Devices & SIM Other oper income
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16
• Core service revenue -0.9% QoQ and +4.8% YoY in Q120, affected by competition and COVID-19
• Other service revenue excl. IC, mainly IR, affected by COVID-19
• Other operating income stay flattish, mainly driven by revenue from TOT 2300 MHz
• Lower handset sales mainly from TFRS 15 adjustments and lower units sold
+2.6%
-1.6%
+3.3%
-6.3%
Sensitivity: Open
• Network OPEX maintained at approx. the same level for 5 consecutive quarters
• Lower other cost of services mainly from lower international roaming and IDD costs, offset partly by the increase in TOT 2300 MHz network roaming cost
Cost of service slightly dropped QoQ mainly from lower roaming & IDD costs
15
Cost of services (THB bn)* CoS as % of Service rev excl. IC
4.5% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.2%
11.8% 11.5% 11.3% 11.6% 11.6%
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Regulatory costs Network opex
0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6
1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8
3.3 3.8 3.9 4.3 4.0
5.7 6.2 6.4 6.7 6.4
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Regulatory Network Others
(THB mm) Q119 Q419 Q120 ∆ QoQ
CAT gross lease expenses** 402 361 358 -3
CAT lease expenses**, net of revenue from lease agreements 334 292 289 -3
TOT 2300MHz gross costs 2,875 3,663 3,688 +25
TOT costs, net of revenue from 2300MHz network rental 1,197 1,229 1,230 +1
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16* Excluding depreciation, amortization, and IC** Lease agreements signed with CAT at the end of the concession (excl. tower related revenue & expense which were capitalized under TFRS 16)
+12.4%
-3.9%
Sensitivity: Open
SG&A dropped back to normal level
16
SG&A (THB bn)* SG&A as % of Total revenue
9.7%8.7% 8.6%
11.1%
8.1%
6.0% 5.5% 5.8% 5.9% 5.7%
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Gen admin S&M
1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5
1.9 1.7 1.72.4
1.6
3.4 3.2 3.3
4.0
3.2
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
S&M Bad debt Gen admin
• S&M expenses dropped QoQ in Q120 as a result of lower activities from COVID-19 impact
• Higher bad debt in Q120 mainly from adoption of TFRS 9 and other challenges
• Gen admin dropped back to normal level after having one-off items in Q419
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16* Excluding depreciation and amortization
-3.8%
-19.3%
Sensitivity: Open
Healthy EBITDA development in Q120
17
EBITDA (THB bn) EBITDA margin (% of Total rev)
37.8% 38.7% 39.4%34.3%
38.2%
41.5% 43.5% 44.6%38.8%
43.7%
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Reported EBITDA % Normalized EBITDA %*
7.3 7.7 8.0 7.3 7.7
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
• EBITDA increased QoQ in Q120 mainly from previous one-off expenses in Q419
• EBITDA margin also bounced back to around prior level
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16* EBITDA margin based on total revenues excluding revenues from CAT lease agreements (excl. tower related revenue & expense which were capitalized under TFRS 16) and TOT network rental in the denominator
+4.5%
+4.5%
Sensitivity: Open
Net profit development in line with EBITDA
18
Net profit (THB bn) Capex (THB bn)
4.4
2.3 2.4
3.9
0.9
24.7%
13.0% 13.7%
20.5%
4.9%
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Capex Capex %*
1.31.6 1.8
0.8
1.5
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16* Based on percentage of total revenues excluding revenues from CAT lease agreements (excl. tower related revenue & expense which were capitalized under TFRS 16) and TOT network rental in the denominator
+15.7%
+89.1%
• Net profit developed in line with EBITDA
• THB 1.61 per share interim dividend from FY19 instead of annual dividend
• No major CAPEX spending plan in Q120
Sensitivity: Open
Normalized net debt maintained at the same level
19
Net debt (THB bn)* Net debt to EBITDA (x)*
Note: Figures are post-TFRS 15 & 16* Net debt includes impact from reclassification of deferred underwriting fee. Normalized net debt from Q419 includes lease liabilities** EBITDA pre-TFRS 15 & 16 for 2019 as reported previously*** Excluding impact from TFRS 9
34.245.3 45.8 40.4 40.2
24.6 24.9
64.9 65.1
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Net debt Lease liabilities
1.3
1.8 1.8
1.6
2.1
1.3
1.6 1.6
2.1 2.1
Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120
Net debt to EBITDA** Normalized net debt to EBITDA
Debt maturity profile (THB bn)***
12.0
1.3 1.3 1.3
4.0
3.0 1.5 2.0
16.0
2.5 4.3
2.8 3.3
6.0
1.5
7.0
3.0 2.5
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
Loan Debenture
• Normalized net debt level (incl. lease liabilities) maintained QoQ in Q120 with slightly higher debt from fair value adjustment of debenture and higher cash and cash equivalents
• Normalized net debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.1x at the end of Q120, same level as for the previous quarter
• Total debt THB 49 bn (THB 16 bn bank loan and THB 33 bn bond)
• Only THB 4 bn drawn from THB 15 bn new term loan signed in late Q419
• THB 6 bn out of THB 12 bn bank loan expiring in 2020 can be rolled over
+90.2%
+0.3%
Sensitivity: Open
Adoption of TFRS 9 in Q120
20
Effects on beginning balance of retained earningsTFRS 9 adoption
• Effective from 1 Jan 2020. The cumulative effect of initially applying is recognized as an adjustment to the retained earnings as at 1 January 2020
• Classification and measurement of financial instruments
• Impairment – Recognition of expected credit losses based on simplified approach
• Hedge accounting
• Fair value hedges – the change in the fair value of a hedging instrument and the hedged item attributable to the risk are recognized in profit or loss
• Cash flow hedges – the effective portion of the gain or loss on the hedging instrument is recognized in other comprehensive income, while any ineffective portion is recognized immediately in profit or loss
(THB million)31 Dec
2019
The effect of
TFRS 9
1 Jan 2020
Consolidated statement of financial position
Assets
Other current financial assets - 12 12
Other non-current financial assets - 1,258 1,258
Other investments 43 (43) -
Deferred tax assets 5,596 (32) 5,564
Liabilities and shareholders’ equity
Debentures – current portion 3,997 48 4,046
Debentures – net of current portion 28,981 1,018 29,999
Shareholders’ equity
Deficits (6,062) 129 (5,933)
Assets Liabilities
• Trade and other receivables → AMC• Other investments → FVTPL or FVOCI• Derivatives – Interest rate swap** → FVTPL
• Trade and other payables → AMC• Short-term & Long-term loans → AMC• Debentures → AMC• Derivatives – Interest rate swap** → FVTPL
* AMC = Amortized Cost, FVTPL = Fair Value Through Profit or Loss, FVOCI = Fair Value through Other Comprehensive Income (OCI)** Depends on its position in each period
Sensitivity: Open
2020 guidance
21
Initial impact from the outbreak was seen mainly on tourist and migrant segment, new acquisitionand outbound roaming. Telecom is still considered an essential service. In the long run, impactin telecom sector is expected to be minimum. We also see growing data usage with peoplechanging lifestyle and way of work, leading to more dependency on telecom services. On top ofthat, Thailand as a tourist destination could open up faster, some reports suggested tourist arrivalcould come back fast once the situation improves.
While the immediate short-term will be challenging, looking ahead, we can see there areopportunities including fast coming back of tourism as well as migrant, reduction in rotationalchurn and poor quality sales, opportunity to optimize device subsidy, and increased use of self-service and digital channels. We do not know yet how this impact will play out in longer term. As aresult, dtac aims to put more focus on cash flow protection including optimization ofdiscretionary spending and CAPEX. New guidance will be given once we are more certain on thesituation. However, our medium term ambition as communicated in our Capital Markets Day stillremains valid.
Sensitivity: Open
Disclaimer
Certain forward looking statements may be made in the course of the presentation. These forward-looking statements generally can be identified by use of statements that include words or phrases such as dtac or its management “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “foresees”, or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements that describe dtac’s objectives, plans or goals also are forward-looking statements.
All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statement. The forward-looking statements contained in the slides are not and should not be constructed as representations of the future performance of dtac and that such statements are an expression of the Company’s reviews based on its current view and certain assumptions including, but not limited to, prevailing economic and market conditions and currently available information.
Investor RelationsE: [email protected] T: +662 202 8882