52
International Forum on Migration Statistics, Paris, France, 15-16 January 2017 QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES Evi Nurvidya Arifin University Respati Indonesia, and University of Indonesia [email protected]

QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

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Page 1: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

International Forum on Migration Statistics, Paris, France, 15-16

January 2017

QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY

OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR

COUNTRIES Evi Nurvidya Arifin University Respati Indonesia, and

University of Indonesia

[email protected]

Page 2: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

OBOR

One Belt, One Road,

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping put

forward the strategic concept of the OBOR

initiatives: a “Silk Road Economic Belt” in Sept 2013, in

Kazakhstan

“21st Century Maritime Silk Road”, Oct 2013, in

Indonesia,

Page 3: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Silk Road Economic Belt

The Silk Road Economic Belt focuses on

bringing together China, Central Asia, Russia

and Europe (the Baltic);

Page 4: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

The 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road is designed

to span from China's coast to Europe through the

South China Sea and the Indian Ocean in one

route, and from China's coast through the South

China Sea to the South Pacific in the other.

to promote maritime cooperation, establishing the

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to

finance infrastructure construction and promote

regional interconnectivity and economic

integration.

Page 5: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Source: Cay (2017)

Page 6: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

OBOR can be BIG

OBOR will connect Asia, Africa and Europe

involving 65 countries, 4.5 billion people.

Include 9 OECD countries (Czech, Estonia,

Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia,

Slovenia, and Turkey)

Page 7: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

5 Major OBOR Goals

Coordination of policies,

Coordination of infrastructure projects,

Guarantee of free trade,

Financial coordination,

Strengthening people-to-people ties.

Page 8: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

OBOR initiatives consists of roads, railways,

ports, pipelines and everything in between

Page 9: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Cultural diversity can be a liability

or asset for development

OBOR can be a new driver of mobility

in the future

Page 10: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

In 2016: More Outflow than Inflow FDI

-100.00

-50.00

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Inflow and Outflow of Foreign Direct Investment: China: 2010-2016

Netflow Outflow Inflow

Increasing

outflow of FDI

from China

Page 11: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Infrastructure

Economic

Growth

OBOR

Initiatives

Investment Trade

Population

Mobility/

migration

Page 12: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Aims

It is still difficult to predict the impacts of OBOR

initiatives and precise future trend of migration.

This paper aims to understand the current

pattern and diversity of migrants in OBOR

countries.

It also quantifies the diversity of migrants

among OBOR Countries

Page 13: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Data

Trends in International Migrant Stock :

The 2015 Revision

International Migrant Stock = foreign

born or foreign citizens

Page 14: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

3 Measurements of Diversity

1. Number of Countries :

by Destination

by Origin

2. The largest share of Migrants

by Destination

by Origin

Page 15: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

3 Measurements of Diversity

3. Diversity Index

by Destination

by Origin

It is adopted from Herfindal index, also known as Fractionalization index

𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 = 1 − 𝑠𝑖2

𝑛

𝑖=1

Where si is the proportion of migrants from / to country i

Page 16: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

How many migrants are in OBOR

Countries?

94.2 millions

Migrants in OBOR

Countries in 2015. OBOR,

38.6

Non OBOR,

61.4

Page 17: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Increasing number of migrants in OBOR

Countries with an increasing rate of Growth

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15

Accelerating Growth Rate of Migrants

71.5 69.3

70.7 73.4

84.7

94.2

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

In m

illio

ns

Increasing Number of International Migrant Stock in OBOR countries

Page 18: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

A sign of returning increased share of Migrants to

the World's International migrant stock

A rapid decline of share

from 1990-2005.

A sign of increasing

share since 2005

46.84

43.10

40.93

38.38 38.20 38.64

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

In m

illio

ns

OBOR Countries’ Share to the World's International migrant stock

Page 19: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

DIVERSITY

Page 20: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

When they live in different countries of birth,

where are they now?

1. Number of Destinations

Page 21: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Number of Destinations

Rank Origin

# of Desti-

nations

1 China 143

2 India 128

3 Russia 102

4 Philippines 100

5 Pakistan 98

6 Lebanon 90

7 Indonesia 87

8 Rep. of Korea 86

9 Egypt 82

10 Turkey 82

11 Syria 79

12 Poland 78

13 Thailand 77

14 Ukraine 76

15 Bangladesh 75

16 Iran 75

17 Romania 71

18 Sri Lanka 71

19 Malaysia 70

20 Iraq 69

21 Israel 68

22 Jordan 67

23 Bulgaria 66

Rank Origin

# off Desti-

nations

24 Viet Nam 66

25 Saudi Arabia 65

26 Afghanistan 64

27 Hungary 63

28 Czech Republic 59

29 Armenia 57

30 Kazakhstan 57

31 Singapore 57

32 Belarus 55

33 Nepal 55

34 Croatia 54

35 Lithuania 53

36 Uzbekistan 53

37 Palestine 52

38 Albania 51

39 Estonia 51

40 Kuwait 51

41 Moldova 51

42 Slovakia 51

43 Georgia 49

44 Latvia 48

45 UAE 48

46 Azerbaijan 47

Rank Origin

# of Desti-

nations

47

Bosnia&

Herzegovina 47

48 Serbia 47

49 Slovenia 47

50 Macedonia 47

51 Myanmar 45

52 Yemen 45

53 Kyrgyzstan 43

54 Tajikistan 43

55 Turkmenistan 43

56 Bahrain 40

57 Cambodia 40

58 Hong Kong 39

59 Lao PDR 37

60 Qatar 37

61 Mongolia 34

62 Oman 33

63 Montenegro 31

64 Brunei 24

65 Bhutan 23

66 Maldives 22

67 Macao 12

68 Timor-Leste 11

Page 22: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Chinese are ubiquitous

They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232

countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging

from as large as 2.1 million in the US to as

small as 11 Chinese in Greenland.

Note: 2.3 million live in Hong Kong

Page 23: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Where are the Chinese?

Hong Kong 24%

USA 22%

Rep of Korea

8%

Canada 7%

Japan 7%

Australia 5%

Singapore 5%

Macao 3%

Italy 2%

UK 2%

Bangladesh 2%

Spain 2%

France 1% Germany

1%

Thailand 1%

Others 9%

Migrants from China

In 2015, they are

mostly in non-OBOR

OECD countries

22% of the out-

migrants from China

live in the US

Page 24: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Chinese in OECD Countries

OBOR

1. Czech,

2. Estonia,

3. Hungary,

4. Israel,

5. Latvia,

6. Poland,

7. Slovakia,

8. Slovenia,

9. Turkey

Non-OBOR

1. Australia

2. Canada

3. France

4. German

5. Italy

6. Japan

7. Korea

8. Spain

9. UK

10. USA

Page 25: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

1. Number of Origins

Page 26: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Share of In-migrants

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

UA

EQ

ata

rK

uw

ait

Ma

ca

oB

ahra

inS

ing

apo

reO

ma

nJord

an

Ho

ng K

on

gLe

ban

on

Saud

i A

rabia

Ma

ldiv

es

Isra

el

Bru

nei

Kazakhsta

nE

sto

nia

Cro

atia

La

tvia

Mo

nte

neg

roS

loven

iaB

ela

rus

Ukra

ine

Ukra

ine

20 Countries + Macao and HK: The IM accounts for more than 10% in 2015

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Se

rbia

Ma

laysia

Russia

Bh

uta

nA

rmenia

Ma

cedonia

Th

aila

nd

Pa

lestin

eS

yria

Lith

uania

Hungary

Georg

iaU

zb

ekis

tan

Cze

ch

Tu

rkey

Tu

rkm

enis

tan

Mo

ldova

Iran

Kyrg

yzsta

nS

lovakia

Ta

jikis

tan

Azerb

aija

nA

lban

iaP

akis

tan

Nepal

Po

lan

dB

ulg

aria

Ye

men

Afg

hanis

tan

Rom

ania

Iraq

Tim

or-

Leste

Bo

snia

&H

erz

egovin

aB

angla

desh

Mo

ngolia

Eg

ypt

Cam

bodia

India

Lao P

DR

Ph

ilippin

es

Sri L

anka

Myanm

ar

Indonesia

Vie

t N

am

Chin

a

Page 27: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Feminization & Masculinization

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Nepal

Mo

ldova

Latv

iaH

ong K

on

gE

sto

nia

Kyrg

yzsta

nA

rmenia

Mo

nte

ne

gro

Po

lan

dM

acedonia

Lith

uania

Ukra

ine

Ta

jikis

tan

Georg

iaS

erb

iaS

inga

pore

Pa

lestin

eIs

rael

Ma

cao

Be

laru

sB

ulg

aria

Tu

rkm

enis

tan

Uzb

ekis

tan

Cro

atia

Slo

vakia

Bo

snia

&H

erz

egovin

aA

zerb

aija

nLebano

nR

ussia

Hungary

Ka

zakhsta

n

Sex Ratio Below 1

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Th

aila

nd

Jord

an

Afg

hanis

tan

Alb

an

iaT

urk

ey

Pa

kis

tan

Syria

India

Ph

ilippin

es

Sri L

anka

Ye

men

Rom

ania

Iran

Lao P

DR

Cam

bodia

Eg

ypt

Myanm

ar

Bru

nei

Slo

venia

Cze

ch

Indonesia

Vie

t N

am

Iraq

Tim

or-

Leste

Ma

laysia

Chin

aK

uw

ait

Sa

udi A

rabia

Ma

ldiv

es

Ba

hra

inM

ongolia

UA

EO

ma

nB

huta

nQ

ata

rB

angla

desh

Sex Ratio Above 1

Page 28: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Number of Origins

No. Country

# of

origins

1 Bulgaria 180

2 Czech 176

3 Hungary 159

4 Russia 150

5 Estonia 147

6 Egypt 134

7 Poland 119

8 Turkey 111

9 Latvia 101

10 Slovakia 95

11 Philippines 92

12 Jordan 84

13 Slovenia 80

14 Serbia 78

15 Croatia 73

16 Romania 62

17 Belarus 60

18 Israel 59

19 Lithuania 59

20 Sri Lanka 50

21 Thailand 47

22 India 38

23 Tajikistan 37

No. Country

# of

origins

24 Bahrain 35

25 Kuwait 35

26 Qatar 35

27 UAE 35

28 Lebanon 34

29 Mongolia 32

30 Ukraine 32

31 Hong Kong 31

32 Montenegro 31

33 Cambodia 28

34 Bhutan 26

35 Kyrgyzstan 25

36 Iraq 24

37 Kazakhstan 24

38 Malaysia 24

39 Maldives 24

40 Viet Nam 24

41 Georgia 23

42 China 22

43 Brunei 21

44 Indonesia 21

45 Moldova 21

46 Macedonia 21

No. Country

# of

origins

47 Bangladesh 20

48 Oman 20

49 Saudi Arabia 19

50 Azerbaijan 18

51 Singapore 17

52 Timor-Leste 17

53 Armenia 16

54 Palestine 16

55

Bosnia&

Herzegovina 15

56 Uzbekistan 12

57 Yemen 12

58 Turkmenistan 11

59 Pakistan 10

60 Iran 9

61 Lao PDR 9

62 Albania 8

63 Macao 8

64 Nepal 8

65 Myanmar 7

66 Syria 7

67 Afghanistan 6

Page 29: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Other North 3%

Other South 14% Hong Kong

28%

Rep of Korea 19%

Brazil 8%

Philippines 7%

Indonesia 4%

Viet Nam 3%

USA 3%

Macao 2%

Thailand 2%

Peru 1%

UK 1%

India 1%

Canada 1% Japan

1% Malaysia 1%

Sri Lanka 1%

Australia 1%

Pakistan 0%

Bangladesh 0% Russia

0%

Migrants in China

Who are Migrants in China?

Migrants in China =

978 thousands in

2015

Page 30: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Who are Migrants in Hong Kong?

Other North 0%

Other South 1%

[CATEGORY NAME]

[PERCENTAGE]

Indonesia 5%

Philippines 4%

Macao 3%

Thailand 1%

India 1%

UK 1%

Malaysia 1% Canada

1% Japan 0%

USA 0%

Viet Nam 0%

Singapore 0%

Nepal 0%

Australia 0%

Pakistan 0%

Rep of Korea 0%

New Zealand 0%

France 0%

Germany 0%

Netherlands 0%

Sri Lanka 0%

Switzerland 0%

Ireland 0%

Italy 0% Bangladesh

0% Spain

0% Portugal

0% Russia

0%

Migrants in Hong Kong

Migrants in Hong

Kong = 2.84 million

in 2015

2838665

Page 31: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

2. Largest Nationality

Page 32: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

The largest share of Out-migrants by Destination

79.1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

Ru

ssia

Ru

ssia

Ru

ssia

Tha

iland

Tha

iland

Tha

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Ru

ssia

Ne

pal

Ru

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gapo

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Germ

any

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Ru

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India

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lad

esh

Ru

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Germ

any

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iaR

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US

AH

ong K

on

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an

Sri L

anka

India

Pale

stine

Germ

any

Turk

ey

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lyU

SA

Pale

stine

Ru

ssia

US

AS

aud

i A

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UA

ER

ussia

US

AS

erb

iaT

urk

ey

Ukra

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Germ

any

UA

EG

erm

any

Turk

ey

US

AR

ussia

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Ch

ina

Czech

Ma

laysia

Cro

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Ho

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UA

EU

KA

ustr

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Czech

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en

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enia

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Bru

nei

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rgia

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ey

Mo

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Desti-

nation

Page 33: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

The largest share of In-migrants by Origin

91.11

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

Pa

kis

tan

India

Russia

India

Afg

ha

nis

tan

Chin

aC

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aR

ussia

So

ma

liaR

ussia

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sn

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Herz

Syria

Pa

lestin

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ussia

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Russia

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Gre

ece

Ba

ng

lade

sh

Ba

ng

lade

sh

Arm

en

iaIn

dia

Russia

Russia

Chin

aS

yria

Vie

t N

am

Russia

Alb

an

iaM

ya

nm

ar

Czech

Indo

nesia

Vie

t N

am

Ma

laysia

Chin

aA

zerb

aija

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an

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kra

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sn

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laysia

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nesia

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Alb

an

iaIn

dia

Ma

ldiv

es

Azerb

aija

nP

akis

tan

Ge

org

iaK

yrg

yzsta

nM

on

golia

Tu

rke

yL

ao

PD

RL

atv

iaM

aced

on

iaT

haila

nd

Slo

va

kia

Tim

or-

Le

ste

Cam

bo

dia

Bru

ne

iM

ya

nm

ar

Arm

en

iaH

un

ga

ryM

old

ova

Slo

ve

nia

Sin

ga

pore

Lith

uan

iaT

urk

me

nis

tan

UA

EB

ahra

inM

ala

ysia

Om

an

Se

rbia

Mo

nte

ne

gro

Qa

tar

Ku

wait

Rom

an

iaP

ola

nd

Bo

sn

ia&

Herz

Eg

yp

tS

yria

Russia

Ch

ina

Sri

La

nka

Pa

lestin

eC

zech

Indo

nesia

Bu

lga

ria

Sa

ud

i A

rab

iaP

hili

pp

ines

Ba

ng

lade

sh

Vie

t N

am

Isra

el

Desti-

nation

Origin

Page 34: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Out-migrants

In-migrants

3. Diversity Index

Page 35: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Diversity Index of Out-migrants ranges from

0.367 (Tajikistan) to 0.920 (Iraq)

0.367

0.920

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Tajik

ista

nK

yrg

yzsta

nT

urk

men

ista

nLa

o P

DR

Myan

ma

rC

am

bo

dia

Aze

rbaija

nK

azakhsta

nB

huta

nT

imor-

Leste

Ma

laysia

Pale

stine

Yem

en

Uzbe

kis

tan

Czech

Arm

enia

Afg

ha

nis

tan

Bru

nei

Bahra

inU

kra

ine

Ma

ca

oA

lba

nia

Geo

rgia

Turk

ey

Mo

nte

neg

roB

ela

rus

Ma

ldiv

es

Vie

t N

am

Om

an

Bang

lad

esh

Mo

ngo

liaP

ola

nd

Isra

el

Qata

rB

ulg

aria

Indon

esia

Syri

aN

epal

Ho

ng K

on

gM

old

ova

Cro

atia

Esto

nia

Ru

ssia

Ro

man

iaP

hili

ppin

es

Kuw

ait

Iran

Egypt

Sin

gapo

reJord

an

Bosnia

&H

erz

Slo

vakia

Ma

ce

don

iaS

loven

iaLa

tvia

Ch

ina

Hu

nga

ryP

akis

tan

India

Saud

i A

rabia

Serb

iaT

ha

iland

Sri L

anka

Lithu

ania

UA

ELe

ban

on

Iraq

Page 36: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Positive relationship between number of

destinations and Diversity Index of Out-migrants

y = -1E-05x2 + 0.0046x + 0.5306 R² = 0.1997

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

0 40 80 120 160

Number of Destinations

Diversity Index of Destinations

Page 37: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Negative association between Number of

destination and share of the largest out-migrants

y = 1E-05x2 - 0.0048x + 0.6488 R² = 0.1914

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Number of Destinations

Share of out-migrants (%)

Page 38: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Diversity Index of In-migrants

0.167

0.932

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Afg

ha

nis

tan

Bhuta

nT

ajik

ista

nN

epal

Iran

Ma

ca

oH

ong K

on

gU

zbe

kis

tan

Yem

en

Jord

an

Esto

nia

Cro

atia

Pakis

tan

Iraq

Ukra

ine

Le

ban

on

Kazakhsta

nB

ela

rus

India

Ca

mbo

dia

Alb

ania

Ma

ldiv

es

Mo

ldova

Aze

rbaija

nT

ha

iland

Myan

ma

rG

eo

rgia

Syri

aK

yrg

yzsta

nLa

o P

DR

La

tvia

Ma

ce

don

iaT

urk

ey

Mo

ngo

liaS

erb

iaT

urk

men

ista

nT

imor-

Leste

Arm

enia

Slo

vakia

Lithu

ania

Bru

nei

Slo

ven

iaM

onte

neg

roS

ing

apo

reO

ma

nU

AE

Hu

nga

ryB

ahra

inM

ala

ysia

Bosnia

&H

erz

Egypt

Kuw

ait

Qata

rR

om

an

iaP

ola

nd

Ru

ssia

Ch

ina

Pale

stine

Czech R

epu

blic

Phili

ppin

es

Isra

el

Sri L

anka

Bang

lad

esh

Indon

esia

Saud

i A

rabia

Vie

t N

am

Bulg

aria

Page 39: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Association between number of origin and

Diversity Index of Origin (DIO)

y = 0.0013x + 0.5996 R² = 0.0968

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Number of Origins

DIO

Page 40: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Association between number of origin and

Diversity Index of Origin

y = -0.1199x + 54.684 R² = 0.0722

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Number of Origins

Share of the Largest In-migrants

Page 41: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Association between Diversity Index of

Origin and the Largest In-migrants

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000

Diversity Index of Origin

The largest Share of In-migrants

Page 42: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Diversity Index of Destination and Origin

y = 0.3029x + 0.4358 R² = 0.0519

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

0.800

0.900

1.000

0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000

DID

DIO

Page 43: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Number and Rate of Migrants

Page 44: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

More sending countries than receiving

countries

-12,000,000

-8,000,000

-4,000,000

0

4,000,000

8,000,000

12,000,000

India

Chin

aB

angla

desh

Ph

ilippin

es

Afg

hanis

tan

Syria

nP

ola

nd

Indonesia

Pa

lestin

eR

om

ania

Myanm

ar

Eg

ypt

Vie

t N

am

Pa

kis

tan

Bo

snia

an

d H

erz

egovin

aS

ri L

anka

Lao P

DR

Iraq

Cam

bodia

Nepal

Bu

lga

ria

Alb

an

iaR

ep. of

Kore

aU

kra

ine

Azerb

aija

nU

zb

ekis

tan

Arm

enia

Mo

ldova

Georg

iaY

em

en

Kyrg

yzsta

nK

azakhsta

nC

ze

ch R

epublic

Lith

uania

Be

laru

sM

acedonia

Ta

jikis

tan

Cro

atia

Slo

vakia

Se

rbia

Tu

rkey

Hungary

Latv

iaM

onte

ne

gro

Tu

rkm

enis

tan

Mo

ngolia

Tim

or-

Leste

Esto

nia

Bh

uta

nB

runei

Ma

ldiv

es

Slo

venia

Ma

cao

Ba

hra

inM

ala

ysia

Russia

Lebano

nIr

an

Qata

rIs

rael

Hong K

on

gO

ma

nS

inga

pore

Jord

an

Ku

wait

Th

aila

nd

UA

ES

audi A

rabia

Net migrants

Sending

Receiving

Page 45: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

More sending countries than

receiving countries

-70.6

86.9

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Pa

lestin

eB

osn

ia&

Herz

eA

lba

nia

Arm

en

iaS

yria

Lao

PD

RM

aced

on

iaM

old

ova

Ge

org

iaR

om

an

iaB

ulg

aria

Lith

uan

iaA

fgha

nis

tan

Po

lan

dK

yrg

yzsta

nA

zerb

aija

nM

on

ten

eg

roS

ri L

an

ka

Cam

bo

dia

Cro

atia

Mya

nm

ar

Ph

ilipp

ines

Czech

Be

laru

sN

ep

al

Latv

iaT

ajik

ista

nB

ang

lade

sh

Ira

qE

gyp

tS

lova

kia

Ka

za

kh

sta

nU

zbe

kis

tan

Vie

t N

am

Ye

me

nT

imo

r-Le

ste

Ukra

ine

Se

rbia

Hun

ga

ryM

on

golia

Indo

nesia

Pa

kis

tan

Tu

rkm

en

ista

nIn

dia

Chin

aT

urk

ey

Esto

nia

Russia

Bh

uta

nIr

an

Ma

laysia

Th

aila

nd

Slo

ve

nia

Bru

ne

iL

eb

an

on

Isra

el

Hon

g K

on

gM

ald

ives

Sa

ud

i A

rab

iaJord

an

Ma

cao

Sin

ga

pore

Om

an

Ba

hra

inK

uw

ait

Qa

tar

UA

E

Net Migration Rate

Page 46: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Relationship with Economic Growth

Page 47: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

GDP Growth & Net migration Rate

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

-35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

GDP Growth Rate

Net Migration Rate

Page 48: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Net Migration Rate & Net Remittances/capita

-20,000.0

-15,000.0

-10,000.0

-5,000.0

0.0

5,000.0

10,000.0

15,000.0

-60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00Net Migration Rate

Net remittances per capita

Receiving migrants

Receiving remittance

Sending migrants

Receiving remittance

Sending migrants

Sending remittance

Receiving migrants

Sending remittance

QAT

BIH

ALB

KWT

CHN

Page 49: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

No correlation between GDP Growth and Diversity

Index of Destination (DID)

y = 0.001x + 0.7409 R² = 0.0017

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

GDP Growth Rate

DID

Page 50: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Positive correlation between GDP growth and

Diversity Index of Origin (DIO)

y = 0.0103x + 0.6449 R² = 0.0986

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

GDP Growth Rate

DIO

Page 51: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

Concluding Remarks

Diversity Index among OBOR countries varies significantly

The three measurements of diversity of migrants provide more insight of heterogeneity

China has the most diverse destinations worldwide

It is still difficult to understand more about the socio-economic status of the migrants, how they will integrate, and how the host will accept them.

More migrants data are needed through collaboration with destination country

Need to establish method to estimate and capture the non-permanent mobility

Page 52: QUANTIFYING DIVERSITY OF MIGRANTS IN OBOR COUNTRIES · They migrate out to 143 countries out of 232 countries in the world (61.6%) in 2015 ranging from as large as 2.1 million in

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