Quantifying the benefits of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management - stakeholder and community engagement and modelling, mapping and data

Appendix 1 - Model evolution

Report – SC130008/R2 Science Report

OUTPUT

(Tangible or measurable)

SCE / MMD ACTIVITY OR

PROCESS

A Dependency link

B ‘B’ depends on ‘A’ ‘A’ contributes to ‘B’

Key to models

Important influence Outside

MMD or SCE control

MODIFIER Applies to more than one

node

Link from other model SCE or MMD

A1.1 Model evolution – modelling, mapping and data

A1.1.1 Qualitative model

Imp

rove o

utco

mes - m

anag

e risks, red

uce co

nseq

uen

ces

En

able o

thers to

bu

ild resilien

ce

Increase th

e resilience o

f peo

ple, p

rop

erty and

bu

sinesses to

th

e risks of flo

od

ing

and

coastal ero

sion

Better u

nd

erstand

risks and

th

eir man

agem

ent

Outcome 1 ‘Impact

reduction’

OUTCOME 2 ‘Confidence &

awareness leading to

action’

Imp

rove E

A

Decisio

n M

aking

M

ore

Efficien

t§

SCE: Local Priorities &

Local Funding

Build / Commission Local Models

Develop Modelling Guidance

Manage Modelling

Data

Interpret & Aggregate

Local Models NAFRA

National Risk Register &

CCRA

Regulated Maps (flood & erosion)

Planning and Development

Guidance

Prioritized Investment Schemes

Detailed Scheme

Proposals

Maintain / Refine Local

Models

Predict Communities At Risk

Visualizations of MMD outputs

Coastal Erosion

Assessments

Real Time Forecasting & Flood Warning

System

Permitting Consents

CFMPs and FRMPs

Operational Rules

Maintenance Priorities

LTIS Central Govt

Advice

Internal Partners

External Partners

Economic & Environmental

Appraisal Processes

Collate Data

Analyze and QA Data

SCE: Local Know

ledge &

Real Experience

How to Model

What to Model

SCE: Local MP briefing

SCE: Consult & reality check

SCE: Consult & reality check

MMD qualitative model Pre-Workshop 2

Build / Commission

Local Models & Data

Develop Modelling

Programme

Manage Existing Models & Data

Identify Data Gaps

Modelling Standards &

Guidance

Modelling Wish List: What and

Where

MMD Programme

Build / Commission

National Models & Data

External Partners

Internal Partners

Third Party Modelling

Advice

Understand climate change

QA of outputs

Interpret & communicat

e

National Model & Results

Local Models & Results

QA of outputs

Interpret & communicat

e

Data types: Assets Receptors Vulnerabilities Etc …

MMD qualitative model Page 1: Activities leading to the production of Local and National Models Pre-Workshop 3

LTIS

Central Govt Advice

National Model & Results

Local Models & Results

Maintenance Priorities

Prioritized Investment Schemes

Detailed Scheme

Proposals

Refine Local Models

Real Time Forecasts

Real Time Warnings

Regulated Maps (flood & erosion)

Emergency Plans

Emergency Plan

Activations

National Risk Register &

CCRA

Planning and Development

Guidance

Permitting Consents

COBRA Activations

Operational Response

Operational Rules

Sharing with 3rd Parties

Insurers Value Added Resellers

Open Data

Sharing with 3rd Parties

Sharing with 3rd Parties

Individual & Community Awareness

LA Coastal Erosion

Assessments

Economic & Environmental

Appraisal Processes

Local priorities & shared funding

Interpret data in relation to

proposals

Local consultation & reality check

Local consultation & reality check

CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies

Environ-mental data

MMD qualitative model Page 2: The uses made of Local and National Models Pre-Workshop 3

Build / Commission

Local Models & Data

Develop Modelling

Programme

Manage Existing Models & Data

Identify Data Gaps

Modelling Standards &

Guidance

Modelling Wish List: What and

Where

MMD Programme

Build / Commission

National Models & Data

Models shared by external partners

Internal Partners

Third Party Modelling

Advice

Understand climate change

QA of outputs

Interpret & communicat

e

National Model & Results

Local Models & Results

MMD qualitative model Page 1: Activities leading to the production of Local and National Models Post-Workshop 3

QA of outputs

Interpret & communicat

e

Data types: Assets Receptors Vulnerabilities Etc …

LTIS

Govt strategic priorities

National Model & Results

Local Models & Results

Maintenance Priorities

Prioritized Investment Schemes

Detailed Scheme

Proposals

Refine Local Models

Real Time Forecasts

Real Time Warnings

Regulated Maps (flood & erosion)

Emergency Plans

Emergency Plan

Activations

National Risk Register &

CCRA

Planning and Development

Guidance

Permitting Consents

COBRA Activations

Operational Response

Operational Rules

Sharing with 3rd Parties

Insurers Value Added Resellers

Open Data

Sharing with 3rd Parties

Sharing with 3rd Parties

Individual & Community Awareness

LA Coastal Erosion

Assessments

Economic & Environmental

Appraisal Processes

Local priorities & shared funding

Interpret data in relation to

proposals

Local consultation & reality check

Local consultation & reality check

CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies

Environ-mental data

MMD qualitative model Page 2: The uses made of Local and National Models Post-Workshop 3

Reactive advice

Appendix 1.1 – Model evolution – modelling, mapping and data

1.1.2 Final qualitative models

Final MMD qualitative model Page 1: Activities leading to the production of Local and National Models

Final MMD qualitative model Page 2: The uses made of Local and National Models

A1.1 – Model evolution – modelling, mapping and data

A1.1.3 – Simplified model for quantification

Central Govt Advice

National Model & Results

Local Models & Results

Maintenance Priorities

Scheme Proposals

Real Time Forecasts & Warnings

Regulated Maps

Sharing with 3rd Parties

CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies

Simplified modelling, mapping and data model Pre-Workshop 3 - Green bubbles removed (but be aware when estimating probabilities) - Activities combined where linear chains only - Primary outputs listed, but uses of these outputs removed

Modelling Programme

Manage Existing Models & Data

Identified Data Gaps

Modelling Standards &

Guidance

Modelling Wish List: What and

Where

Third Party Modelling

Advice

Manage New Require-ments

Govt strategic priorities

National Model & Results

Local Models & Results

Maintenance Priorities

Scheme Proposals

Real Time Forecasts

Regulated Maps

Sharing with 3rd Parties

CFMPs / FRMPs & strategies

Simplified modelling, mapping and data model Post-Workshop 3

Modelling Programme

Manage Existing Models & Data

Identified Data Gaps

Modelling Standards &

Guidance

Modelling Wish List: What and

Where

Third Party Modelling

Advice

Manage New Require-ments

Emergency planning &

FWAs

Out9: Govt. Strategic Priorities

Out8: Local and National

Models

Out2: Maintenance

Priorities

Out1: Large Scheme

Proposals

Out5: Real Time

Forecasts

Out7: Regulated

Maps

Out3: Shared Model Data and Advice

Out4: Local Strategies

Act3: Deliver Modelling

Programme

Act2: Manage Existing Models

and Data

Act4: Provide Modelling

Standards and Guidance

Act1: Manage New Modeland Data

Requirements

Out6: Emergency

Planning and FWAs

Final modelling, mapping and data model for quantification

A1.2 – Model evolution – stakeholder and community

engagement A1.2.1 Qualitative model

17

Communicate flood

risk

Identify engagement locations/

routes

Engagement planning

‘Lines to take’ & FAQs Social Media, CFP Template Press Releases, Flyers, Plain Englishing Community Newsletters, Published Maps

Engagement Products

(1-way)

SCE qualitative model Pre-Workshop 2

Imp

rove o

utco

mes - m

anag

e risks, red

uce co

nseq

uen

ces

En

able o

thers to

bu

ild resilien

ce

Increase th

e resilience o

f peo

ple, p

rop

erty and

bu

sinesses to

th

e risks of flo

od

ing

and

coastal ero

sion

Better u

nd

erstand

risks and

th

eir man

agem

ent

Outcome 1

‘Impact reduction’

OUTCOME 2

‘Confidence &

awareness leading to

action’

Imp

rove E

A

Decisio

n M

aking

M

ore

Efficien

t

Long Term Strategies & Plans

More EA presence in

flooded areas (not just Ops)

More face2face SCE to reach more at once

Better Flood

Warnings

Flood warning

registration

Communities with

Flood Plans

Communities with Flood

Action Groups

Community based FCERM improvements

Increase flood resilience awareness

Recruit & Meet flood wardens

Brokering relationships

(public/private)

Partner to plan & deliver engagement

Meet Local partners

POST-FLOOD LOCAL ACTION

Increase flood risk & action awareness

Spatial planning

Comment on planning

applications Planning &

development consultations

Comment on strategic

plans Floo

d map

Flood Warnings /

Alerts

Communicate flood risk to partners Communicate flood risk to public

Risk Info for Public & 1st Responders

Respond to customer questions

Enquires about flood risk levels

Flood map

Flood Informatio

n

Incident management

?

Flood Recovery

Direct recovery support

Influencing recovery

plan FLOOD & RECOVERY

Public Consultation Gathering / sharing local insights Events / Confs ‘Spreading the word’ Hosting EA depot open day/surgery Drop-In Sessions Door Knocking Workshops Explaining Data / MMD Conversation

(2-way)

??

Flood scheme technical appraisal

Flood defence works plan & programme

Flood Scheme

Change flood risk category.

EA Asset ????

Gather feedback on maint. plans

Flood scheme opening events

MMD for Community

FCERM Maintenance

Lead local flood authorities Local flood resilience forum Surface Water stakeholders (2-way) Las, IDBs, RFCC, Local MPs, Media

Stakeholders

Identified

Encourage & Empower

communities in local FRCM

Identified priority

communities

Communities @risk output

Understand flood risk Focus EA

resources on highest risk

(RRG / CRCs)

Prioritise community

engagement

Social Environ-mental Political Financial

Understand context

Horizon scanning

Brokering relationships

(public/private)

Negotiate partner funding

Identify funding streams

Efficient Planning Targeting

engagement

Market Research to shape SCE

Evidence of effectiveness of warnings

PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT

Property level

protection

Collate Feedback

Better SCE

Evaluation of SCE activity

Better MMD

Engagement to identify LONG LIST options – who are beneficiaries – contributors – revenue streams EA reduces to SHORT LIST Consult on PREFERRED OPTIONS LIST FLOOD SCHEME OPENING

Social Environmental Political Financial

Understand context Horizon

scanning

Imp

rove outcom

es - man

age

risks, redu

ce conseq

uen

ces

Enab

le others to b

uild

resilien

ce

Increase th

e resilience of p

eople, p

roperty an

d

bu

sinesses to th

e risks of floodin

g an

d coastal erosion

Better u

nd

erstand

risks an

d th

eir man

agem

ent

Outcome 1

‘Impact reduction’

OUTCOME 2

‘Confidence &

awareness leading to

action’

Imp

rove EA

Decision

Makin

g

More

Efficient

DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

SCE AROUND ASSET M’GMENT

EXTNERAL DRIVERS

P.E.S.T.L.E.

EA INTERNAL DRIVERS

P.E.S.T.L.E.

EVIDENCE Market

Research to shape SCE

Collate Feedback

Evaluation of SCE activity

Research

ENGAGEMENT PLANNING

Identify engagement locations/

routes

Engagement planning

Stakeholders Identified

Understand flood risk

Focus EA resources on highest risk

(RRG / CRCs)

Prioritise community engagement

Efficient Planning

Targeting engagement

‘Lines to take’ & FAQs Social Media, CFP Template Press Releases, Flyers, Plain Englishing Community Newsletters, Published Maps

COMMS (1-way)

Public Consultation Gathering / sharing local insights Events / Confs / Public Meetings ‘Spreading the word’ Hosting EA depot open day/surgery Drop-In Sessions Door Knocking Workshops Explaining Data / MMD Responding to enquiries Face2Face meetings Emails and letters Phoning partners

ENGAGEMENT

(2 WAY)

MMD

Evidence of effectiveness of warnings

INCIDENT Community / Stakeholder Informed

Flood Warnings /

Alerts

IMMEDIATE RECOVERY

SCE direct recovery support

Influencing recovery plan

PREPAREDNESS

Better Flood Warnings

Flood warning registration

Communities with Flood

Plans

Communities with Flood

Action Groups Community

driven FCERM improvements

Flood wardens scheme

Flood Information

Property level protection

EA TR

US

T /

REP

UTA

TION

Understand Relevant Risk

Understand Risk

SCE around Asset Mgmt Programme

Communities @risk output Identified

priority communities

SCE on FCERM Strategies &

Plans

SCE around Maintenance Programme

Comment on planning

applications Planning &

development consultations

Comment on strategic

plans

SCE qualitative model End Workshop 2

Communities have Flood

Plans

Communities have Flood

Action Groups & wardens

Encourage Flood warning registration

Flood Warnings improved

PLP implemente

d

Influencing recovery

plan

Support flood

recovery

Flood Warnings / Alerts issued to communities

*

Community / Stakeholder

Informed in a flood

Flood wardens warn/help

communities

Communities know how to respond in a

flood

Properties are protected

in a flood

Communities know how to

respond after a flood

Advise on flood plan

development

Identify communities

at risk *

Advise on flood action group

and flood warden set-up

Those at risk are signed up to warnings

Advise on PLP

Communities receive a warning

Comment preferred options for

community FCERM improvements

Flood scheme built/maintenance undertaken

Consult community on

warnings

(B) SCE before, during & after a flood

Lydia B-G + additions by P Brand

Permits & Consents*

Planning and Development

Guidance

Review & comment on planning &

consultations

Review & process

consents/permits

Consult om capital prog

Maintenance priorities*

Prioritised investment schemes*

Understand Relevant Risk

to communities

Identify communities

at risk *

CFMPs/FRMPs/Strategie

s*

Consult preferred options

Flood scheme built

Maintenance undertaken

or not

(A) SCE role in plans, schemes and maintenance

Engage stakeholders & partners

Target/ prioritise /plan engagement

Identify stakeholders

Consult on maint prog

Influence plans &

strategies

EA Drivers (P.E.S.T.L.E

)

Extneral Drivers

(P.E.S.T.L.E)

Evidence Gathering &

Collation

Strategic Inputs

Identify funding partners or revenue streams

Ou

tcome 1

‘Imp

act redu

ction’

OU

TCO

ME 2

‘Con

fiden

ce & aw

areness lead

ing

to action’

Development

Planning

SCE qualitative model – Developments Post-Workshop 2 - using MMD model style

Communities have Flood

Plans

Communities have Flood

Action Groups & wardens

Encourage Flood warning registration

Flood Warnings improved

PLP implemente

d

Influencing recovery

plan

Support flood

recovery

Flood Warnings / Alerts issued to communities

*

Community / Stakeholder

Informed in a flood

Flood wardens warn/help

communities

Communities know how to respond in a

flood

Properties are protected

in a flood

Communities know how to

respond after a flood

Advise on flood plan

development

Identify communities

at risk *

Advise on flood action group

and flood warden set-up

Those at risk are signed up to warnings

Advise on PLP

Communities receive a warning

Comment preferred options for

commmunity FCERM

improvements

Flood scheme built/maintenance undertaken

Consult community on

warnings

SCE qualitative model – Further developments Post-Workshop 2

(B) SCE before, during & after a flood

Permits & Consents*

Planning and Development Guidance*

Review & comment on planning &

consultations

Review & process

consents/permits

Consult pm capital prog

Maintenance priorities*

Prioritised investment schemes*

Understand Relevant Risk to

communities

Identify communities

at risk *

CFMPs/FRMPs/Strategie

s*

Consult preferred options

Flood scheme built

Maintenance undertaken

or not

Engage stakeholders

Target/prioritise /planengageme

nt

Identify stakeholders

Consult on maint prog

Influence plans &

strategies

(A) SCE role in plans, schemes and maintenance

Complaints responded

to

Post incident / flood recovery engagement

Engagement during flood

incident

Engagement and consultation on

strategic plans and strategies

Engagement on speicfic capital flood scheme

options

Engagement on FCERM

maintenance programmes

Engage and provide advice on flood

resilience measures

Flood action campaign -

delivered through Corporate Affairs

Flood action groups or flood warden scheme

in place

Property level product scheme implemented

Community flood plans developed

Increased flood warning service

sign up

Increased awareness and belief in risk

Improved flood

warnings

Other community led improvements

delivered, e.g. scheme

Engage and deliver

transactional services

Consents granted

Enquiries responded

to

Community aware, knows when to

respond and prepared to take

action

Revised FCERM maintenance programme

Implementation of maintenance

protocol

Identified where others can deliver

maintenance

Public sector cooperation agreements

Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan

Evaluation of engagement

Preferred option for capital scheme

Engagement through delivery

of preferred option

Flood scheme built

FCERM invetsment programme

agreed

Engagement to inform FCERM

investment programme

Need to for capital scheme

Identify what is at risk / output of communities at risk project

P.E.S.T.L.E drivers

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning

Engage external partners

PESTLE / situational

analysis WWO

Evidence / market research

/previous engagement evaluation

Flood incident?

Other community led improvements

identified

Community informed during

incident

Community knows how to respond after a

flood

SCE qualitative model Post-workshop 2

A1.2 – Model evolution – stakeholder and community

engagement A1.2.2 Final qualitative model

Final SCE qualitative model

A1.2 – Model evolution – stakeholder and community

engagement A1.2.3 Simplified model for quantification

Complaints & enquiries

responded to

Post incident / flood recovery engagement

Engagement during flood incident

through ambassadors and communications

Engagement and consultation on

strategic plans and strategies

Engagement on maintenance programme

Engage and provide advice on flood

resilience measures

MMD

Flood action campaign -

delivered through Corporate Affairs

Improved flood

warnings

Other community led improvements

developed & implemented.

scheme

Engage and deliver

transactional services

Consents granted &

planning apps responded to

Community aware, knows when & how

to respond and prepared to take

action

Develop, & implement

maintenance programme

Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan

Evaluation of

engagement

Preferred option selected and

built

Develop & implement

capital programme

Identify what is at risk / output of communities at risk project

P.E.S.T.L.E drivers

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning

Engage external partners

PESTLE / situational

analysis WWO

Evidence / market research / previous

engagement evaluation

Flood incident?

Community informed during

incident

Engagement on Capital

programme

Training & mobilisation of

EA staff not just FCERM

Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model Pre-Workshop 3

Complaints & enquiries

responded to

Post incident / flood recovery engagement

Engagement during flood incident

through ambassadors and communications

Engagement and consultation on

strategic plans and strategies

Engagement on maintenance programme

Engage and provide advice on flood

resilience measures

Improved flood

warnings

Other community led improvements

developed & implemented.

scheme

Engage and deliver

transactional services

Consents granted &

planning apps responded to

Community aware, knows when & how

to respond and prepared to take

action

Develop, & implement

maintenance programme

Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan

Preferred option selected and

built

Develop & implement

capital programme

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning

Community informed during

incident

Engagement on Capital

programme

Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model Pre-Workshop 3 – further development

Complaints & enquiries

responded to

Post incident / flood recovery engagement

Engagement during flood incident

through ambassadors and communications

Engagement and consultation on

strategic plans and strategies

Engagement on maintenance programme

Engage and provide advice on flood

resilience measures

Improved flood

warnings

Other community led improvements

developed & implemented.

scheme

Engage and deliver

transactional services

Consents granted &

planning apps responded to

Community aware, knows when & how

to respond and prepared to take

action

Develop, & implement

maintenance programme

Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan

Preferred option selected and

built

Develop & implement

capital programme

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning

Community informed during

incident

Engagement on Capital

programme

Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model As amended during Workshop 3

Engagement where

maintenance is not being continued

Complaints & enquiries

responded to

Post incident / flood recovery engagement

Engagement during flood incident

through ambassadors and communications

Engagement and consultation on

strategic plans and strategies

Engagement on maintenance programme

Engage and provide advice on flood

resilience measures

Improved flood

warnings

Other community led improvements

developed & implemented.

scheme

Engage and deliver

transactional services

Consents granted &

planning apps responded to

Community aware, knows when & how

to respond and prepared to take

action

Develop, & implement

maintenance programme

Revised strategic plan, e.g. flood risk management plan

Preferred option selected and

built

Develop & implement

capital programme

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning

Community informed during

incident

Engagement on Capital

programme

Engagement where

maintenance is not being continued

A

B

C D E F I G H

J K L M P N O Q R

S T

Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model As amended during Workshop 3

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning on/during

Capital programme

Plans & strategies

Maintenance programme

During a flood incident

Ad hoc enquiries/complain

ts/consultations’

Flood resilience measures & flood

plans

After a flood incident

Develop & implement programme

Develop revised plans

& strategies

Develop & implement

programme & plans

Community informed during

incident

Improved flood warnings

Community aware, knows when & how to respond

Community led scheme(s)

implemented

Complaints & enquiries

responded to

Consents granted & planning apps responded to

A B

C

D

E

F

H

G

I

J

L

K

M

N

P

O

Q

R

Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model Pre-Workshop 4

Scope of switch D: Nodes C, E and G

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning on/during

Capital programme Plans & strategies

Maintenance programme

During a flood incident

Ad hoc enquiries/complain

ts/consultations’

Flood resilience measures & flood

plans

After a flood incident

Develop & implement programme

Develop revised plans

& strategies

Develop & implement

programme & plans

Community informed during

incident

Improved flood warnings

Community aware, knows when & how to respond

Community led scheme(s)

implemented

Complaints & enquiries

responded to

Consents granted & planning apps responded to

A

B

C D

E

F

H

G

I

J

L

K

M

N

P

O

Q

R PSO Model

SCE in community

with no past flood or

engagement

S

Scope of switch S: All nodes except A, B, I and Q

Simplified stakeholder & community engagement model End Workshop 4

Strategic engagement

planning

Specific community engagement

planning for a given community

Engagement on Capital programme

Plans & strategies

Engagement on Maintenance programme

Engagement During a flood incident

Ad hoc enquiries/complaints/consultations on

planning applications

Engagement before a flood –

preparedness (warning service, community flood

planning)

Engagement After a flood incident

Develop & implement capital

programme

Develop revised plans

& strategies

Develop & implement

maintenance programme & plans

Community informed during

incident

Improved flood warnings

Community aware, knows when/how

to respond, implements local

schemes

Complaints & enquiries

responded to

Consents granted & planning apps responded to

A

B

C D

E

F

H

G

I

J

L

K

M

N/O

P

Q

R PSO Model

SCE in community

with no past flood or

engagement

S

Scope of switch S: All nodes except A, B, I and Q

Scope of switch D: Nodes C, E and G

Final stakeholder & community engagement model for quantification