Quantifying WEF Interdependencies for Mitigating Resource Uncertainties in Developing Countries

Afreen Siddiqi, Ph.D.

Research Scientist, MITVisiting Scholar, Harvard Kennedy School

Risk Governance Research Workshop

Lisbon, Instituto Superior Tecnico, June 25, 2014

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Understanding and accounting for these interconnections is important for resource use-efficiency, socio-economic growth, and

long term sustainability

Food, water, and energy are increasingly inter-linked across different segments of their value chains

water is used in extracting and processing fossil fuel, and cooling electric power plants

energy is needed for pumping ground water, desalination, distribution, and treatment

energy is used to power agricultural machinery, process and transport food

adoption of bio-fuel has raised concerns for adequate food supply and use of water

Increased demands and new technologies have created the ‘water-energy-food’ nexus

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World Economic Forum: Global Risks Assessment 2011

The water-food-energy nexus

A cluster of risks within 37 selected global risks as seen by members of the World

Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Councils and supported by a survey of 580 global leaders

and decision-makers

Demand for water, food and energy is expected to rise by 30-50% in the next two decades

Economic disparities incentivize short-term responses in production and consumption that undermine long term sustainability

Shortages could cause social and political instability, geopolitical conflict and irreparable environmental damage.

Any strategy that focuses on one part of the water-energy-food nexus without considering its interconnections risks serious unintended consequences

Source: Global Risks 2011, World Economic Forum.

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Journal publication trends in Compendex database show emergence of ‘nexus’ research on water, energy, and food

water OR energy OR food AND nexus

water AND energy AND nexus

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GDP

AGRICULTURE

SERVICES

INDUSTRY

POPULATION: 180 MILLION POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1.8%

82% URBAN

20.1%

25.5%

54.4%

Siddiqi, A., Wescoat, J. L., (2013), “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan”, Water International, 38 (5), pp 571-586. (*Editors Choice Article)

Indus River Basin in Pakistan

Punjab

Sindh

KPK

Balochistan

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We base our analysis on the Indus basin in Pakistan a country of 180 million people intimately dependent on the Indus

river for water, food, and energy

human impact

acute shortage of energy and water, and insufficient access to nutrition

necessary conditions present for action

major institutional re-structuring and infrastructure planning under-way

finite possibility of implementing solutions

Research Q: What is the energy intensity in large-scale irrigated agriculture in Pakistan?

7http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stmSource: FAO

Global Map of Irrigation

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length (km) : 3,180 annual flow (km3) : 207Avg. Discharge (m3/s) : 6600Basin Area (km2) : 1,005,786Total Population (Million) : 237Basin Precipitation (mm/yr): 423

Source: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.

The Indus Basin

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Low precipitation and high ET render the region largely arid.

Rain fed agriculture is limited.

Ref: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.

Large part of the Indus Basin is arid

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Despite the aridity, the area is a major agricultural region through irrigation

Image by James Wescoat

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Key Features of Surface Irrigation System

~129 km3 of water is diverted annually to the canal network for irrigating 44 million acres

There are large delivery losses (40% – 60%) in the surface system that has led to expansion of pumped irrigation

Indus basin irrigation system is among the world’s largest network of surface canals

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The linear trend for Rabi is an average decrease of 252 Billion CM per yearThe overall trend is a decrease of 182 Billion Cubic meters each year for canal withdrawals in Punjab

Kharif (summer)

Rabi (winter)

Canal water availability has declined over past decades(largely during the winter cropping season)

Total (annual)

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Tubewells in 1995 Tubewells in 2010

Dot Density:1 dot = 500 Tubewells

A conjunctive irrigation system has emerged with surface and ground water use that now depends on energy

Using district level tubewell installation data, we used GIS Mapping to map pumping density in Punjab

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Acute energy shortages are impacting all sectors of the economy

Estimated Electricity Deficit in 2011

Energy Shortage Context in Pakistan

Siddiqi, et. al, “An empirical analysis of the hydropower portfolio in Pakistan”, Energy Policy, Vol. 50, 2012

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off-grid distributed system

A massive pumping system draws water from the ground to augment surface water supplies for agriculture

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Reported data of energy use in agriculture provides only partial information of total energy used in the sector

Data Source: Energy Year Book, HDIP (2010, 2012)

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Top down data coupled with bottom up calculations were used to estimate energy use in agriculture

High Speed Diesel (HSD)

Light Diesel Oil (LDO)

Electricity

Tractors (< 55 HP)

Tractors (> 55 HP)

HSD Tube wells

LDO Tube wells

Electric Tube wells

Field Operations

Water Pumping

Fuel Type Farm Machinery Farm Operationsdirect energy use

Natural GasFertilizer

ProductionFertilizer

Application

in- direct energy use

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Pumping system and farming machinery stock levels used for bottom up estimation of HSD consumption

Operation and usage data obtained from Punjab Agricultural Machinery Census of 1994 and 2004

Annual fuel use volume (Vkfuel) for each type of element (power

level and fuel use type) was estimated as:

where:

Sk: stock level of machinery in year k

cfuel: fuel consumption /hr

U: annual utilization

t: operating hours per day

d: number of operating days per year

€

Vfuel

k = S k × c fuel ×U k

U = t × d

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Benchmarking of the results showed reasonable agreement with reported data

The ratio of HSD motors used for water pumping changes from 24% (of total installed base) in 1994 census to 80% in the 2004 census.

This shift in fuel type contributes to steady decline of LDO sales

We compared country-level results of Pak-IEM model (which is MARKAL adapted for Pakistan)

Agriculture Energy Use (2007)

Pak-IEM Estimate (Pakistan)

Pak-IEM derived estimate for Punjab

MIT Study data and results

Electricity 0.8 Mtoe 0.8 X 0.47 = 370 ktoe

312 ktoe

LDO 0.1 Mtoe 0.1 X 0.9 = 90 ktoe

81 ktoe

HSD 2.7 Mtoe - 2.4 Mtoe

Source: Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) – Final Report Vol. I, 2010

ElectricityLDOHSD

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Water pumping is estimated to account for 61% of direct energy use in 2010 in farm-level operations

HSD TW pumping

Electric pumping

LDO TW pumping

field (HSD tractor) operations

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Reported estimates for agriculture (that exclude HSD) show only a 3% share in total energy use in the province in 2010

Reported Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]

Domestic: 1764Industry: 1785Agriculture: 467Commercial: 287Transport: 5265Power: 5305Other: 366

Estimation Adjusted Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]

Domestic: 1764Industry: 1785Agriculture: 3118Commercial: 287Transport: 2634Power: 5305Other: 366

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Water, food, and energy security is about human welfare –the resource-use efficiency needs to be improved

At the provincial level in Punjab (between 1995-2010):

Direct energy intensity has risen 80% (from 1 to 1.8 MJ per kg of crop produced)

Fertilizer use intensity has risen 85% from 99 kg/ha to 184 kg/ha

Total crop production has increased only 31%

“Due to declining performance of the sector, as well as increased cost of inputs and inflation, the cost of food per head in the province has gone beyond Rs.3000 [$30] per month” (DAWN, March 25, 2013)

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Future work: Integrated modeling of water, energy, crop production, for water, food, and energy security

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In principle, policy makers acknowledge importance of integrated planning; in practice it has been hard to do so due to technical and institutional hurdles

Knowledge gap in resource inter-linkages is a major impediment towards improved policy

Strategic organizational linkages, and enhanced rules for infrastructure planning and resource policy can be easy first steps towards improving decision-making

Summary

“The vast gains in human welfare from improved provision of food, energy and water – and the spectre of losing this access through shortsighted policies that fail to recognize the complex interactions of these three issues – suggest that the Energy Water Food nexus must be prioritized both by the analytical policy-support community and policy-makers” (Bazilian et al, Energy Policy, 2011)

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QUESTIONS?

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HSD and LDO

Two main grades of diesel fuel are marketed in India and Pakistan, High Speed Diesel (HSD) and Light diesel oil (LDO).

HSD is a 100% distillate fuel while LDO is a blend of distillate fuel with a small proportion of residual fuel.

HSD is normally used as a fuel for high speed diesel engines operating above 750 rpm i.e. buses, lorries, generating sets, locomotives, pumping sets etc. Gas turbine requiring distillate fuels normally make use of HSD as fuel.

LDO is used for diesel engines, generally of the stationery type operating below 750 rpm

Ref: http://www.petroleumbazaar.com/hsd/hsdappli1.htm

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Energy estimates for agriculture show that the sector accounted for 20% of total energy use in Punjab in 2010

Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]

Domestic: 1764Industry: 1785Agriculture: 3118Commercial: 287Transport: 2634*Power: 5305Other: 366

Total: 15259

Water pumping (~1909 kToe) is 12% of total energy use in the province in 2010.

Farm operations with tractors (~ 1209 kToe) is 8% of total energy use in 2010.

*HSD use estimate for agriculture was subtracted from official HSD transport numbers keeping the reported total energy use for the province

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Benefits of more holistic policy & regulatory design would likely be:

economic efficiency resource efficiency improved livelihood options and public health

Negative consequences can include

impacts on communities commodity prices sub-optimal infrastructure design environmental degradation

Energy, water, food policy have interwoven concerns from ensuring access to price volatility to environmental impacts

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Surface irrigation system serves to redistribute meltwaters as ground water recharge

1. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Monsoon/printall.php

Snow and icemelt from glaciers

Large surface storage Extensive distribution network

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Benefits of more holistic policy &

regulatory design would likely be:

economic efficiency resource efficiency improved livelihood options and public health

Negative consequences can include

impacts on communities commodity prices sub-optimal infrastructure design environmental degradation

Energy, water, food policy have interwoven concerns from ensuring access to price volatility to environmental impacts

Bazilian et al., “Considering the energy, water and food nexus: Towards an integrated modelling approach”, Energy Policy, 2011

All three areas : have many billions of people without access

(quantity or quality or both) have rapidly growing global demand have resource constraints

have different regional availability, supply, and demand

operate in heavily regulated markets are ‘‘global goods’’, involve international trade

and have global implications

have deep security issues as they are fundamental to the functioning of society

require the explicit identification and treatment of risks

have strong interdependencies with climate change and the environment

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Background

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The shift from gravity-fed, surface water to pumped ground water and pressurized field application systems has increased the coupling between water and energy in large-scale irrigation

70% of global freshwater use is in the agricultural sector

Rainfed agriculture covers 80% of cultivated land globally, and produces 60% of crops

Irrigated agriculture represents 20% of cultivated land and accounts for 40% of crop production irrigated agriculture grew 1.5% annually from 1950s-1990s

Un-reliable surface water supplies increasingly replaced with ground water withdrawals – a shift that requires more energy

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Gla

cier

Are

a [k

m2 ] Glacier Area

Glacier Area %

Future Work:Incorporating Water Availability Uncertainties

Planning for uncertainty in water availability– shifts from historical norms – Indus is considered one of the most vulnerable rivers to climate

change – decreases in surface water supplies will likely further increase pumped irrigation

32[1] Himalayan Glaciers, National Research Council, 2012[2] Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry, John Briscoe, Oxford Univ. Press, 2006

Expected shifts in annual influx in the Indus River [2]

% c

han

ge

Decadein thefuture

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World Economic Forum: Global Risks

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Quantitative Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems for Data-driven Planning and Decision-Making

Investigating interactions between large-scale, critical infrastructure systems (such as that of water, energy, and agriculture) with the aim of informing policy, planning, and design for improving resource use efficiency and enabling long-term sustainability

Decision Analysis

Dependency Structure Mapping Graph Theory & Networks Analysis

Systems Dynamics

Modeling and Computation

Stakeholders Analysis

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Urban Water-Energy Couplings

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ProblemQuantifying water-energy couplings at urban-scale

Approach Building-level temporal computation of water use and related energy consumption

ImpactSynergies for water and energy infrastructure planning, higher efficiencies, improved architectural decisions

Uncertainty Drivers:Population GrowthClimate Change

Factors:Urban FormWater ScarcitySystem Architecture

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Urban Water Cycle: Masdar City, UAE

Siddiqi, A., de Weck, O.L., (2013) “Quantifying End-Use Energy Intensity of the Urban Water Cycle”, ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 19 (4), pp 474-485

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Building level water sources modeled in the study include municipal water, rainwater, and recycled grey water

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Energy needs for Building-level Water Use

€

EH =VHρcΔT

ηh

€

VH = α hivi

i=1

A

∑

1. Energy for Water Heating 2. Energy for On-site Pumping

€

Ep = ep VM⋅ max F +1 − fM , 0( )( )

building height1 2 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4

+ VRWFrainwater{ + VWWF

recycled wastewater1 2 3

⎡

⎣

⎢ ⎢ ⎢

⎤

⎦

⎥ ⎥ ⎥

€

ep =γ hF 1 + α l( )

ηp

€

Er = er vii=1

Ag

∑

€

ET = EH + EP + Er

3. Energy for On-site Recycling

4. Building-level Energy for Water Use:

VH : volume of heated waterρ : density of waterc : specific heat capacityΔT : temperature differenceαhi : ith application hot water fractionvi : ith application water use volumeer : energy intensity of recyclinghF : floor heightαl : pipe lossesF : total number of floors in building

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Computational Framework

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Sample Outputs

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Case Study: Masdar City

Masdar City is in the out-skirts of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

It is 6 km2 , planned to house 50,000 people, 1500 businesses, and a technical university.

Initial cost estimates were at $22 billion and development time was ~10 years

It was originally targeted to be the world’s first zero-carbon city

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Masdar City: Plot-level Master Plan

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Energy for all Water Segments

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ΔE

Estimate for Masdar City

Annual Water Demand [Million m3]

Est

imat

ed E

ner

gy

for

Wat

er C

ycle

[G

Wh

]

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Energy by Water Segment

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Estimated Annual Energy Requirement In Water Cycle for Masdar

Water Demand Scenario

GW

h

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Comparison of Energy Intensity of Masdar Water Cycle

Comparative Analysis

Across the range of water demand scenarios considered, the energy intensity for Masdar City is ~5-7 kWh/m3

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End-use segment compares almost equally in energy intensity with production segment (in case of Masdar)

Water heating – even in hot climates- makes up a large share of water-related energy use in buildings

Water efficiency in end-use segment is a high-impact lever for influencing energy consumption in the urban water cycle– water efficiency in end-use has largest multiplier effect for energy– water conservation measures can be incentivized from an energy and financial savings

perspectives

Water-sector energy efficiency incentives should be targeted for both utilities and end-users

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Summary

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Energy for Large-Scale Irrigation

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ProblemQuantifying energy intensity of large-scale irrigation.

Approach Water and energy stocks and flows in natural and engineered system; relating water efficiency and energy efficiency.

ImpactApplication to IBIS investment decisions and infrastructure planning ($30 billion currently planned)

Major Reservoirs: 3No. of Barrages: 16No. of Inter-link Canals: 12No. of Canal Systems: 44No. of Water Courses: 107,000Avg. Canal Diversions: 104.7 MAFGroundwater Abstraction: 42 MAFNo. of Wells: > 750,000Canal Command: 36 M acres

Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS)

IBIS – DistributoryNetwork

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Large-scale irrigated agriculture is at the core of this nexus

We base our analysis on the Indus basin in Pakistan a country of 180 million people

intimately dependent on the Indus river for water, food, and energy

human impact

acute shortage of energy and water, and in-sufficient access to nutrition

necessary conditions present for action

major institutional re-structuring and infrastructure planning under-way

finite possibility of implementing solutions

length (km) : 3,180 annual flow (km3) : 207Avg. Discharge (m3/s) : 6600Basin Area (Million km2) : 1Total Population (Million) : 237Precipitation (mm/yr): 423

Ref: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.

http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stm

Research Q: How are energy intensity and water use efficiency coupled in large-scale irrigated agriculture?