Giuliana Zanchi and Marcus Lindner

Quantitative overview and analysis of afforestation in Europe

Vilnius 24-26 October 2006

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OUTLINE

• The project context of the analysis

• Available data sources in Europe

• Limitations

• European trends

• Conclusions

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April 2004 - March 2007Sixth Framework Programme

How can two of the most important international environmental agreements which the EU has ratified be adequately reflected in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)?

The project will contribute by:• Assessing current policies• Identifying the most desirable changes in

agricultural and forest practice• Identifying policy measures needed to deliver

changes in practice

In order to comply with KP and CBD, major changes will be required in the EU farming and forestry policies and practices

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0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2005

1000

ha

EU25 EU27 Rest of Europe

Forest area - FRA 2005

80

100

120

140

160

180

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991

1000

ha

Forests, Woodland Agricultural Area

Land area of EU15 (FAOSTAT)

How much is due to afforestation / natural forest expansion?

Forest area change:general increase all over Europe

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• Overview of available data sources

• Critical analysis of data

• Identification of European trends

MEACAP Report on afforestation activities in Europe:

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Data sources

FRA 2005

TBFRA2000

Corine Land Cover

MCPFE-Report State of Europe’s

Forests 2003

State of the World’s forest 2003 (from

FRA 2000)

The development of European

Forest Resources, 1950 to 2000

EFFE final report

Incentives to expand forest cover:

a framework for Canada

Evaluation and Report on

Regulation 2080/92

Newfor Symposium

UNFCCC GHG inventoriesQuestionnaire to

national authorities

Main data sources

DerivedOthers

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1. Different reference periods

2. Different definition of forest/afforestation

3. Interpolation/extrapolation between subsequent National Forest Inventories

4. Partial information (e.g. limited to a single policy action)

LIMITATIONS OF DATA SOURCES

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AfforestationForest area change

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Austria

Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Ireland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

UK

Reference period for forest area change and afforestation (EU-15)

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Average forest area change (EU25)(different reference periods)

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Den

mar

kFi

nlan

dFr

ance

Ger

man

yG

reec

eIre

land

Italy

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

herla

nds

Por

tuga

lS

pain

Sw

eden UK

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gary

Latv

iaLi

thua

nia

Mal

taP

olan

dS

lova

kia

Slo

veni

a

1000

ha

year

-1

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Average afforestation rate (EU25)(different reference periods)

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200A

ustri

aB

elgi

umD

enm

ark

Finl

and

Fran

ceG

erm

any

Gre

ece

Irela

ndIta

lyLu

xem

bour

gN

ethe

rland

sP

ortu

gal

Spa

inS

wed

en UK

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gary

Latv

iaLi

thua

nia

Mal

taP

olan

dS

lova

kia

Slo

veni

a

1000

ha

year

-1

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TRENDS in EUROPE

1. Forest area change

2. Afforestation

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1. Forest area change (UNECE/FAO)

• Most significant changes after Second World war until 1970s (afforestation activities and land abandonment)

Development of forest area in Europe by regions (1950-1996)

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2. Afforestation comparison to forest area change

- Afforestation = 100% of forest area changeonly plantations

- Afforestation < 100 % of forest area changenatural forest expansion+ plantations

- Afforestation > 100 % of forest area change (or neg.) plantations + deforestation processes

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Land abandonment

Land abandonment and afforestation

Afforestation

Deforestation(forest area decreasing)Afforestation + Deforestation(forest area increasing)

No significant change

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ECCP Report (WG on Forest Sinks)

Assumes that the pace of afforestation will be the same than in the 1990s = 340.000 ha/yr

EU15 in 2008-201214 Mt CO2 eq. : annual potential sequestration from ”afforestation” (plantation+ succession)

AFFOREST project: + a potential of 3.8 Mha in the 10 accession countries

... In the future

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Forecasted/reported afforestation programs:

1. Mediterranean countries:- Spain: 3.8 Mha of afforestation in marginal

lands over 30 years

- Italy: intention to include natural succession for KP (potential of 3 Mt CO2 eq.)

- Portugal: from the 1990s to 2005 constant afforestation rate reported (26000 ha/yr since 1990)

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3. New EU members:

- Poland: intensive afforestation program (500 000 ha in 2001-2020)

- Hungary: recently intensified afforestation (from 26000 ha/yr in the ’90s to 40000 ha/yr in 2000-2004; 20000 ha/yr planned for 2000-2030)

2. Northern European countries:

- UK, Ireland: still implementing afforestation

- Fenno-scandia: forest area only slightly increasing after the ’70s

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4. European Union:

Still promoting afforestation activities

• European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EARFD)

• 2006 EU Forest Action Plan

For KP and BDC purposes

Will the potential be fulfilled?

E.g.: Denmark: the aim was 4-5000 ha/yr, but less than 2000 ha/yr afforested in 1990-2004

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Afforestation and biodiversity

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Conclusions

• Forest data sources: several inconsistencies

• Afforestation partially responsible for forest area change better information are needed

• Afforestation: from production to environmental role in the EU policy

• Attention to deforestation processes (carbon debits)

• Programs not always fulfilled

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Thank you for the attention!