QuueyOuooant Yearly Outlook Level of 7350 strong entry level in …content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_Derivatives... · 2016-03-14 · Month/Year India VIX Nifty level Further

Quant Yearly Outlooku e y Ou oo

Level of 7350 strong entry level in 2016 for target of 8600/10200Level of 7350 strong entry level in 2016 for target of 8600/10200…

R h A lResearch AnalystsAmit Gupta [email protected] Ahmad [email protected] Deepak Singh [email protected]

December 16, 2015

Volatility spikes of last six years suggest major downsides should be limited towards 7350 in 2016

Since 2010, India VIX has surged towards 35-40% almost every year in May or September. Later, it consolidated, witnessed good upsides…

After 2009, the India Volatility Index (India VIX) made its top near 35-40 levels in all major panicsseen in the Nifty. In the last six years apart from 2012, the volatility index has surged towards35-40 levels every year. In the declines of September 2015, it has already made a high of 35.Despite recent selling pressure, India VIX has remained subdued and did not even move above20. Looking at the Nifty bottom formation behaviour in previous panics, we believe a level near7350 is a good buying opportunity for long term equity play.

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Source : ICICIdirect.com Research, bloomberg

India VIX topping out near 35% level suggests support for Nifty near 7350, which is a strong investment opportunity….

Surge in Volatility index towards 35-40% has led to Nifty bottom since 2009 …

Month/Year India VIX Nifty level Further Declined by Formed final low at

May, 2010 35.75 4786 0% 4786

Source : icicidirect.com,bloomberg

y,

Sept, 2011 38.19 4720 -4% 4531

Sept, 2013 36.02 5118 0% 5118

May, 2014 39.3 6862 0% 6862

Sept, 2015 35.57 7667 -2% 7540

• After the volatility surges towards 35-40%, further declines in the Nifty have been restricted up to 4% in thelast six years. The Nifty made a low of 7667 in the recent volatility spike. This means another 4% correctiony y y pfrom those levels should create a Nifty bottom near 7350. Thus, we believe declines towards 7350 shouldbe a strong investment opportunity

• Whenever volatility has spurted to the extreme of 35%, the Nifty has almost respected its previous year’slow formed on volatility spurt. Hence, in 2016, if a volatility spike is again seen, the Nifty fall should bey p , , y p g , yrestricted near 2015 lows

• Since 2009, it has been observed that the volatility spike towards 35% has happened either in May orSeptember. Hence, the early part of 2016 should be good for equities on the back of key triggers like theUnion Budget and the current oversold scenario in certain sectors

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Union Budget and the current oversold scenario in certain sectors

Mean + 2 Sigma level is breached at 8600Mean + 2 Sigma level breached at 8600

Mean + 2 Sigma level is breached at 8600 which would remain the crucial intermediate resistance for Nifty

glevels in Nifty correction in 2015.

Going ahead, 8600 first target for Nifty in 2016

Mean +2 Sigma level of 8600 first Nifty target in 2016...

Crossover of Mean + 2 Sigma leads to big upsides g g ptowards Mean + 3.5 Sigma, which is currently at 10200.

Same witnessed in 2014 when Nifty moved up from 7000 to 9000 levelswhen Nifty moved up from 7000 to 9000 levels

Move above 8600, open upsides till 10200…

Mean + 2 Sigma level is breached at 8600Equity markets have made bottom near firstMean + 2 Sigma level is breached at 8600 which would remain the crucial intermediate resistance for Nifty

Equity markets have made bottom near first US rate hike in last three major rate hike cycles seen since 1986 in US

Three major rate hike cycles in US…

Mean + 2 Sigma level is breached at 8600Mean + 2 Sigma level is breached at 8600 which would remain the crucial intermediate resistance for NiftyS&P 500 move after first US rate hike in previous cycles

S&P made bottom after first US rate hike in last three rate cycles; eventually hit Mean + 2 Sigma, placed at 2250 currently…

US rate hike cycle: 2004 US rate hike cycle: 1994

US rate hike cycle: 1986y

Major fall in Indian equities arrested in 2004, 1994 before first US rate hike…

Nifty move during 2004 US rate hike cycle Sensex move during 1994 US rate hike cycle

Sensex move during 1986 US rate hike cycleg y

Nifty PCR-OI approaching oversold levels…

Nifty PCR-OI near 0.80 approaching oversold levels; could see reversal supporting long equity play…

• The ca tion in the b oade ma kets is eflected in indicato s like PCR OI hich a e still t ading at s b 1 0• The caution in the broader markets is reflected in indicators like PCR-OI, which are still trading at sub 1.0levels and now approaching oversold levels. In bull markets, this indicator has even traded at 1.5/1.8 levels.The low reading of this indicator suggests participants are sceptical on writing Put options and have beenmore active in writing Call options

L ki t Nift PCR OI th t di f 0 80 i l th th PCR OI f 1 1 i• Looking at Nifty PCR-OI, the current reading of 0.80 is even lower than the PCR-OI average of 1.1 seen since2011. This leaves scope for the start of Put writing, which bodes well for “Buy at declines” strategy for Nifty

• In the current profit booking leg since August 2015, post the initial spike towards 35-40 levels, volatility hasremained subdued. This is giving an opportunity for the start of Put writing. This would help in a pullback inNif PCR OI i h k d liNifty PCR-OI supporting the markets on declines

PCR-OI at lowest levels since June 2014, approaching oversold levels

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Buying participation from DII increases;Buying participation from DII increases; buy over US$10 billion in 2015

Higher MF inflows leading to better performance from midcap, small cap stocks…

• DII inflo s ha e seen eco d flo s in 2015 MF investment over US$10 billion

Monthly Inflow in MF at record pace

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• Where key indices like the Nifty and Bank Niftyare down over 5% YTD, midcap/small capi di 2% With MF i fl

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2015 Indices return suggests alpha from midcap and small cap to continue

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likely to continue in the coming year

• Empirical evidence suggests, mutual funds tendto focus on midcap/small caps as they offergreater potential for returns

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When MF allocation increases , mid/small cap tends to outperform..

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Due to fear of US rate hike FII outflows seen from emerging markets in 2015….

FII outflows in August, September 75% of total year’s outflows…

Aft i ifi t i fl f l | 36 500 i th fi t f th f 2015 FII fl i I di f th h l• After significant inflows of nearly | 36,500 crore seen in the first four months of 2015, FII flows in India for the wholeyear have, so far, turned negative in rupee terms. Majority of the outflows were seen in August and September where75% of the total yearly outflows were seen. Due to this outflow, the rupee depreciated almost 5% in these twomonths. The jitters before the Fed FOMC on September 17 were one of the reasons behind this outflow. In addition,crude oil prices made a new low of $42.2 per barrel in August, which also propelled selling from sovereign wealthp p g p p g gfunds. This still continued, to some extent, as Brent crude has come down to $38. Of late, India’s weight reduction inMSCI rebalancing has also led to outflows, which are still persistent, though at a slower pace

• Real return is the nominal return adjusted for inflation. This is the actual return for investors. With inflation in a coolingoff trajectory in India and the RBI being judicious in cutting rates, Indian markets offer one of the most compelling realreturns. It is likely to remain on the investment radar in the coming year

FII driven sell-off seen across Emerging equity markets

Country Prev Close Current Prices ReturnCountry Prev Close Current Prices Return

Russia 1396.61 1742.46 24.8%

China 3165.814 3510.354 10.9%

South Africa 43949.89 43701.61 -0.6%

India 8248.25 7700.9 -6.6%

Philli i 7282 94 6701 35 8 0%

FII Inflows (USD Millions)

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Phillipines 7282.94 6701.35 -8.0%

Malaysia 1766.83 1622.84 -8.1%

Brazil 50007.41 44872.47 -10.3%

Thailand 1497.67 1300.51 -13.2%

Turkey 84537.1 72156.79 -14.6%

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MF inflows compensating FII outflows to some extent…In second half of 2015In second half of 2015

FII outflows of nearly | 35000 crore somewhat compensated by MF inflows of | 43000 crore

FII selling compensated by MF inflows…

• Mutual funds have strongly participated in 2015. They have provided strong support when FIIs took abackseat. For the year, they have invested close to US$10 billion

• The effect of FII selling, to some extent, has been reduced by MFs’ contribution that has increasedsubstantially in 2015. On account of this, despite the Nifty being 14% down from its highs, the midcapand small cap spaces are buzzing. In the second half of 2015, FIIs have withdrawn | 35000 crore whileMFs have invested | 43000 crore

Cumulative (MF & FII flows)MF & FII flows…

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Rupee likely to remain resilient amid lower crude prices,improving macros

Rupee resilience vs. emerging market currencies…

• In 2015 the roller coaster ride for currencies continued Forex volatility index of global currencies has risen to its• In 2015, the roller coaster ride for currencies continued. Forex volatility index of global currencies has risen to itshighest level since 2011. However, the rupee has been able to buck the trend and remained strong as India’sattractiveness as an investment decision continued to remain in play. Along with this current investment climate, aproactive central bank and the government encouraging more capital formation from FPIs. The rupee looks like it isin safe hands. We believe the rupee is likely to continue to trade resilient in the range of 63-67

• Since July 2014, the rupee has outperformed all emerging market currencies. Also, comparing with its BRICSpeers, where Brazil has depreciated by 42%, Russia by 47%, South Africa by 26%, the rupee has only depreciatedby 9%. The rupee has also appreciated against developed currencies like the euro, Yen and Australian dollar as theeuro has depreciated 21%, Yen by 15% and Australian Dollar by 34% against the US dollar since July 2014. Such a

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other emerging currencies…

strong performance by the rupee has come on the back of an upbeat debt market and a sharp fall in crude oilprices from June 2014

Phill ipines

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Source : ICICIdirect.com Research, bloomberg

Rupee likely range for 2016 of 63-69: Improving macros likely to halt rupee depreciation beyond 69….

R lik l f 2016 63 69• The renewed confidence of FIIs on India issuggested by the fact that they are not hedgingtheir investments in India by buying US$INR inthe non-deliverable forward (NDF) market.

Rupee likely range for 2016: 63-69…

Primarily due to this, premium in the NDF markethave not been increasing in the last few monthsdespite interim depreciation seen in the rupeespot on account of China devaluation. This

i i it t t 2013 h NDFscenario is quite contrary to 2013 when NDFpremium surged sharply due to excessivehedging by FIIs in the forward market. The tradedeficit was high that time due to higher crude oilprices which was near $110 Hence the

Subdued NDF premium suggests rupee to stay resilient…

70 4Unlike 2013, three-month NDF premiums contained prices, which was near $110. Hence, thecurrency was more vulnerable to globalpressures. However, this time major rupeeresilience has started due to India’s decliningtrade deficit thanks to lower crude prices 58

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trade deficit thanks to lower crude prices

• Major rise in the dollar seems to be over in nearterm as seen in the sharp fall in Dollar index,which happened primarily after the recent euromove but seems to have also factored in the US

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move but seems to have also factored in the USrate hike scenario. This will support the rupee

3M NDF - INR Spot Spread INR Curncy


Brent crude:Brent crude:December 2016 options suggest $58-60 to remain crucial resistance

in 2016; but pullback expected from $34-35 as Put writing in 40 strike has increasedas Put writing in 40 strike has increased…

Brent Crude: December 2016 options suggest 58-60 to remain crucial resistance in 2016 but pullback expected from 34-35 as Put writing in 40 strike has increased…

• Brent crude has declined 25% in 2015 due to factors like higher production and low global demand These• Brent crude has declined 25% in 2015 due to factors like higher production and low global demand. Thesefactors have pushed crude prices below $38. Along with this, strengthening of the dollar against mostcurrencies has also acted as a dampener for oil. With no major recovery in demand in sight, major upsides incoming months in the commodity are remote

• As per options data December 2016 has the highest Call base at 60 and Put base at the 40 strike No major• As per options data, December 2016 has the highest Call base at 60 and Put base at the 40 strike. No majoractivity was evident below the Put options base of 40 strike. The open interest at 40 Put strike is significantlyhigher than any of the Call strikes. Hence, the recent move below $40 is likely to be arrested soon near thesupport of 34-35. On the higher side, we expect it to consolidate below $60 levels in coming months

• As per CFTC data net long positions had become almost negative during the 2009 crisis Currently net longs in• As per CFTC data, net long positions had become almost negative during the 2009 crisis. Currently, net longs incrude are at three-years low, which may lead to limited downsides in the near term

Accumulation seen in 40 strike Put of December 2016

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35 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60Source : ICICIdirect.com Research, bloomberg

Gold: Value buying expected near $1000-1020…

While major rise in dollar seems over, gold should pull back from $1000-1020 levels…

• Gold was primarily marred by dollar strength and witnessed a 10% YTD decline as the dollar index wasstrengthened by almost the same percentage in the past year

• As per CFTC data, the leverage in gold futures is at the lowest levels since 2009. This may lead to some basecreation now for the commodity. We believe $1000-1020 should be considered as good buying opportunity

• Since 2008, the US QE programme was able to provide support to gold as the dollar remained subdued.However, expectations of a rate hike in the US led to a major surge in the US dollar. This also led to a decline ingold. With the first rate hike expectations already built up in dollar price, gold may find some solace. Downsidesare expected to be limited near $1000-1020 as the dollar may start weakening post a rate hike

• On the higher side, we expect a bounce towards $1230-1250 to be possible in 2016. Fresh long positions maystart building up in gold, which may lead to a pullback from lower levels

Gold prices did not witness major correction in local currencies per ounce…

Country Currency 2014 End Low Current YTD Return

US Dollar 1184.86 1046.3 1063.7 -10.2%

China Yuan 7352 6661 6877 -6.5%

India Rupee 74849 68223 71356 -4.7%

Europe Euro 979 959 964 -1.5%

Tourkey Lira 2764 2736 3179 15.0%

South Africa Rand 13659 13336 16110 17.9%

Brazil Real 3136 3128 4121 31.4%


Gold: Leveraged positions lowest since 2009, which may limit downsides…


F ll i d il ld i l dFall in crude oil, gold prices lead to better macroeconomic scenario in India

Improving macros: Key to India’s tag as attractive asset class …

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CPI, WPI likely to remain contained… Despite recent surge on account of US higher rates, Indian bond yields remain subdued

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Quant Picks (Time frame: Three months)

HDFC Ltd (HDFC)

Buy HDFC Ltd (HDFC) in the range of | 1178-1188. Target| 1425. Stop Loss | 1064

Derivatives & Quantitative Outlook

In the recent decline, the NBFC space has continued to remainresilient in the current market decline. Putting things in

Stock at a glance

Spot Price (Last Close) 1188.00

Beta 1.18

3M Avg Price (|) 1231.73perspective, while the Nifty is down over 10% since its recenttop of 8330, HDFC Ltd has fallen a little over 7%.

As the stock tumbled to | 1100 levels in the August decline, itwitnessed one-year high volumes. Since then, it has beenmoving up higher coupled with delivery based buying Stock & OI pattern

3M Avg Volume (Shares) 2390952

3M Avg Roll (%) 82.43%

HV 60 Day (% Annualised) 25.52

In the futures segment, the current leverage (open interest) isthe four-month low for the stock. This suggests momentumtraders have still not entered the stock. The stock performanceis likely to attract fresh long positions, which could take it higher

F d l O l k 1000

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Fundamental Outlook

HDFC Ltd is the largest housing finance company in India. Thecompany has maintained sustained credit growth along withstrong margins and resilient asset quality across economiccycles. Return ratios have been healthy with RoE in the range of18 20% with RoA at 1 9%

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18-20% with RoA at 1.9%

We maintain our SOTP based target price of | 1410 valuing thestandalone housing finance business at 3.5x FY17E ABV toarrive at | 830 per share while stakes in other business arevalued at | 580 per share

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Positional recommendations for the coming quarterAmbuja Cement (GUJAMB)Buy Ambuja Cement (GUJAMB) in the range of | 188 192Buy Ambuja Cement (GUJAMB) in the range of | 188-192.

Target | 240. Stop Loss |169Derivatives & Quantitative Outlook

• After seeing a strong start to 2015, cement stocks haveremained subdued in the second half of 2015. However,

Stock at a glance


Beta 1.13

3M Avg Price (|) 203.24most stocks like Ambuja Cement have fallen to strongsupport levels, which is offering a strong risk-reward play

• In futures segment, the long liquidation pattern wasclearly seen in previous months of 2015. However, itseems to be halting while fresh long formation has started Stock & OI Pattern


3M Avg Roll (%) 70.26%


g gin these stocks. In September series, despite the Niftyweakness, open interest in Ambuja Cement increasedalmost 90% at lower levels of | 200. Later, the market fellbut it slipped only towards | 192 while another 20% risewas seen in OI at these levels. It points to an accumulation

Stock & OI Pattern

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was seen in OI at these levels. It points to an accumulationpattern in Ambuja Cement at lower levels of | 190-200

Fundamental Outlook

• We expect government spend in infrastructure to improvepost CY15, which, in turn, will drive cement demand. We

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expect Ambuja’s volume, realisation to grow at a CAGR of~2.3% and ~1.7%,respectively, during CY14-16E

• Post acquisition of a 50% stake in ACC at an attractivevaluation of US$123 EV/tonne, Ambuja will have a pan-India footprint with 58 MTPA capacity

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• Ambuja currently has net cash of | 2,700 crore

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Dabur (DABUR) Buy DABUR (DABUR) in the range of | 265 270 Target |Buy DABUR (DABUR) in the range of | 265-270. Target |

330, SL | 239Derivatives & Quantitative Outlook

Stocks from the FMCG and consumer discretionary spacehave constantly been in the news. However, the price

Stock at a glance


Beta 0.59

3M Avg Price (|) 272.09performance is still missing in most stocks. As a result,stocks like Dabur have fallen to attractive levels. With thenext big event for the market being a pick-up inconsumption , we recommend Dabur

Dabur’s open interest has seen sharp closure of 22% in Stock & OI pattern


3M Avg Roll (%) 76.42%


p pthe last few sessions as it came closer to the 2015 supportlevel of | 260. This has been the same level where it wasin February 2015 and also when the Nifty was near 8800.Hence, traders who have gone short in the February fall,despite Nifty weakness have not got an exit, which may

Stock & OI pattern

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despite Nifty weakness have not got an exit, which maylead to the price performance of the stock

Fundamental Outlook

Dabur's diverse product portfolio (hair care, oral care, skincare, home care, health supplements, digestives, OTC &

hi l ) & i i h i h id d 220

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ethicals) & presence in niche categories has aided revenuegrowth at a robust 18.6% CAGR in FY08-15

DIL is continuously increasing its distribution networkthrough different channels to increase its reach. This hasresulted in sustained 8% volume growth. With input cost

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witnessing a structural decline, we believe margins willexpand ~230 bps till FY18E

Godrej Industries (GODIND)

Buy Godrej Industries (GODIND) in the range of | 354-360. Target | 445. Stop Loss | 319

Derivatives & Quantitative Outlook

In the September move of the Nifty, Godrej Industries hadgiven a good price move of near 17%. Later, with the

Stock at a glance


Beta 0.97

3M Avg Price (|) 375.67g g p ,market downsides, it witnessed profit booking. However,it remained 7% higher than the September lows while theNifty fell below these levels by 2%. It clearly shows theoutperformance of Godrej industries. It is the holdingcompany of Godrej Consumer and Godrej Properties Stock & OI pattern


3M Avg Roll (%) 63.52%


company of Godrej Consumer and Godrej Properties.Both stocks have remained outperformers in the overallNifty declines from March 2015

Godrej Industries had seen major short closure in March2015 when its open interest had declined sharply by 65%.Si th it b k t b | 340 Th Nift h

Stock & OI pattern

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Since then, it gave a breakout above | 340. The Nifty hascome down substantially almost 14% since then.However, Godrej is still 6% higher above those levels

In September, when the stock declined near | 340,another round of short covering was seen while the open

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interest has declined by 22% since then, which is alsoseen in the price performance 200

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eb-1

5

30-A

pr-1

5

30-J

un-1

5

31-A

ug-1

5

31-O

ct-1

5

200

700 OI i

n

3 2 3 3

Portfolio allocation in Derivatives Products…

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various derivatives p g p p presearch products

• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment• Within each product segment, it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation.• For example: The ‘Daily Derivatives’ product carries two intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal

amount to each recommendationamount to each recommendation • Stock Trader & Quant Picks recommendations should be considered in cash segment and stoploss on closing basis.

Time frame for these recommendations is 3 month.

Product wise Max allocation Frontline Mid-cap

Allocation Return Objective

allocation per stock Stocks stocks

Daily Derivatives 5% 2-3% 2 Stocks 1% 2-3% Intraday

Weekly Derivatives 10% 3-5% 2 Stocks 3-5% 5-7% 1 Week

High OI stock 5% 2-3% 2-3 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1-2 Weeks

Monthly Derivatives 15% 3 5% 4 7 Stocks 7 10% 10 15% 1 Month

DurationProducts Number of Calls

Monthly Derivatives 15% 3-5% 4-7 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month

Global Derivatives 5% 2-3% 1-2 index strategy - - 1 Month

Stock Trader/ Stock in Focus 15% 2-3% 5-6 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months

Quant Picks 10% 2-3% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 3 Months

Alpha Trader 5% 2-3% 2-3 Alpha strategy 5% - 3 Months

Volatility Insights 5% 2-3% 1-2 Strategy 8-10% 10-15% 1-2 Month

Arbitrage Opportunity 5% 2-3% 2-3 Stocks > 2.5% >2.5% Event Based

Positional / Daily Futures 5% 2-3% 8-12 Stocks 1-3% 2-5% 1-14 days

Index option & Strategy 5% 3-4% 2-5 Nifty 2-3% - 1-14 days

S k i & S 5% 3 4% 2 8 S k 3 5% 1 14 d

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Stock option & Strategy 5% 3-4% 2-8 Stocks - 3-5% 1-14 days

Currency Futures 5% 3-4% 3-5 Calls - - Intraday

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] Research Desk,ICICI Securities Limited,1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,Road no.7, MIDCAndheri (East)M b i 400 093Mumbai – 400 [email protected]

3838

DisclaimerANALYST CERTIFICATION

We /I, Amit Gupta B.E, MBA (Finance), Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA (Finance), Azeem Ahmad MBA (Fin) Research Analysts, authors and the/ , p , ( ), j p g , ( ), ( ) y ,names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about thesubject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited(ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distributionof financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has itsvarious subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance asset management life insurance general insurance venture capital fundvarious subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fundmanagement, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets inIndia. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companiescovered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and theirrelatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The reportand information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way,y y p y y y,transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without priorwritten consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities isunder no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may preventICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and suchsuspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might beacting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification hasbeen made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shallbeen made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shallnot be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financialinstruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICISecurities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. Thesecurities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investmentdecisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken insubstitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks.The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICIThe value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICISecurities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is notnecessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated beforeinvesting in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements arenot predictions and may be subject to change without notice.ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might havebeen mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period

di t l th f th d t f thi t f i i t f i i bli ff i t

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preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporatefinance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchantbanking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report.ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third partyin connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflictof interest at the time of publication of this report.It is confirmed that Amit Gupta B.E, MBA(Finance), Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA(Finance), Azeem Ahmad MBA (Fin), Research Analysts ofhi h i d i f h i i d i h i h di l hthis report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage servicetransactions.ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Companymentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficialownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.It i fi d th t A it G t B E MBA(Fi ) R j D k Si h BE MBA(Fi ) A Ah d MBA (Fi ) R h A l t dIt is confirmed that Amit Gupta B.E, MBA(Finance), Raj Deepak Singh BE, MBA(Finance), Azeem Ahmad MBA (Fin), Research Analysts donot serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the inf,ormation presented inthis report.

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity ResearchA l i ti itiAnalysis activities.This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in anylocality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation orwhich would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securitiesdescribed herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession thisdocument may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

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