Spinnovation NL

Radiative forcing from European passenger vehicles emissions (1995-2015) based on real-world use

Eckard Helmers1, Uwe Tietge2, Tim Butler3

1) Department of Environmental Planning and Technology, Environment Campus Birkenfeld, University of Applied Sciences Trier, Germany.

2) The International Council on Clean Transportation, Berlin, Germany

3) Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany

e.helmers@umwelt-campus.de

Environment Campus Birkenfeld

ETH Conference on Combustion Generated Nanoparticles Zürich, June 19, 2018

the European „Diesel car boom“

Shares expressed as percentages, either of annual new car registrations or of the entire car fleet in different years. Data taken from Cames & Helmers (2013), and ACEA (2017)

Historic dieselization of the passenger car fleet in Europe

Kyoto protocol

1997

Helmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

From laboratory ………

Sources: EU commission, European Environmental Agency; the geographical scope of the data changing from EU-15 through EU-28

2015 target: 130

2021 target: 95

Average type-approval CO2-emissions of new cars in the EU

Helmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

From laboratory to road

Fuel consumption data collected from 7 European countries (web services like Spritmonitor.de, service providers, leasing/renting companies, fleet owners,

automobile magazine tests)data density

vs. gap (%)

number of entries increased from 230,000 (2001) to 1.3 Mio (2015)number of sources increased from 2 (2001) to 6 (2015)

Source: Tietge et al. 2016, 2017

Divergence between type-approval and real-world CO2-emissions for passenger cars in the EU

Helmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

From laboratory to road

Based on data from Tietge et al., 2016

Divergence between type-approval and real-world CO2-emissions for passenger cars in the EU

2007 first mandatory CO2 regulationpassed EU parliament, in force 2009

Helmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

From laboratory to road

type approval/ laboratory

real-world/ road

Average real-world CO2-emissions of new cars in Europe.

Helmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

Shares expressed as percentages, either of annual new car registrations or of the entire car fleet in different years. Data taken from Cames & Helmers (2013), and ACEA (2017)

Historic dieselization of the passenger car fleet in Europe, and DPF penetration rates

CO2-equivalents added due to BC emissions:

GWP20 = 3200 (270 – 6200)

GWP100 = 900(100 – 1700)

Bond et al. 2013

Euro 1Type approval: 140 mg PM/km

measured: 135 mg/km

corresponding102 mg BC/km

92 g CO2e/km

Adding the black carbon warming effectHelmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

*) recalculated from: Tate 2013, 2015, Kadijk et al. 2015, Hooftman et al. 2016, Pillot et al. 2014, Shields 2016, European Environmental Agency 2013

Historic dieselization of the passenger car fleet in Europe, and DPF penetration rates

CO2-equivalents added due to BC emissions:

GWP20 = 3200 (270 – 6200)

GWP100 = 900(100 – 1700).

Bond et al. 2013

Euro 1*92 g CO2e/km

Euro 2*49 g CO2e/km

Euro 3*17 g CO2e/km

Euro 4*22 g CO2e/km

Euro 5*0.4 g CO2e/km

Adding the black carbon warming effectHelmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

Average GHG emissions of new cars in Europe including BC emissions

Adding the black carbon warming effectHelmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

Modelling the European car fleet emissions (1995 – 2015)

Adding the black carbon warming effect

- 76

- 0.7 %

Gt

+ 6

total committed lifetime emissions of CO2 and total CO2-eq (including black carbon), for 281 million new cars registered between 1995-2015 in the EU (each vehicle

modelled with 200,000 km). Freezed* 1995 scenario: - 58 million diesel cars(*= diesel car percentages kept on 1995 level)

Helmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

Average GHG emissions of new cars in Europe including BC emissions

Adding the black carbon warming effect

In 2014, 1.2 million used cars moved from Germany to other EU states, mainly to south-eastern Europe (Umweltbundesamt, 2016).

… destination of another 1.2 million used carsfrom 3.26 million cars which signed out in Germany in 2014 is unknown (Umweltbundesamt, 2016)

Assumptions:a) 1/3 of all diesel cars move to Eastern Europeb) they drive without DPF over 1/3 of their lifetime This would cause an offset of + 8 g CO2-equivalents

Helmers, Tietge, Butler; ETH Zürich 2018

Spinnovation NL

Radiative forcing from European passenger vehicles emissions (1995-2015) based on real-world use

Eckard Helmers, Uwe Tietge, Tim Butler

thank youfor your attention

e.helmers@umwelt-campus.de

Environment Campus Birkenfeld

ETH Conference on Combustion Generated Nanoparticles Zürich, June 19, 2018