Rainfall Forecasting and its Rainfall Forecasting and its ApplicationsApplications

FIJI CASE STUDYFIJI CASE STUDY

Janita PahaladJanita Pahalad Simon McGreeSimon McGree

National Climate Centre National Climate Centre Climate Service Climate Service DivisionDivision

Aust. Bureau of Meteorology Aust. Bureau of Meteorology Fiji Meteorological Fiji Meteorological ServiceService

Rainfall Forecasting Models – In Rainfall Forecasting Models – In BriefBrief

• FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) – FMS Rainfall Prediction Model (RPM) – ▪ Operational since July 1999Operational since July 1999▪ 3 months forecast3 months forecast▪ 25 stations25 stations

• Australian Rainman Model (AusRain) – Australian Rainman Model (AusRain) – ▪ Operational since August 1999Operational since August 1999▪ 1 to 12 months forecast1 to 12 months forecast▪ 21 stations21 stations

Statistical ModelsStatistical Models• Requires good quality, unbroken long Requires good quality, unbroken long

historical datahistorical data

• Simple, easily implemented, can run on Simple, easily implemented, can run on desktop PCdesktop PC

• May require initial programming expertiseMay require initial programming expertise

• Easily modifiedEasily modified

• Implemented anywhere with local dataImplemented anywhere with local data

ApplicationsApplications

• Drought Prediction SchemeDrought Prediction Scheme

• Flooding incidencesFlooding incidences

• Frequency of tropical cyclonesFrequency of tropical cyclones

User Applications User Applications

• Agriculture – namely sugar Agriculture – namely sugar industryindustry

• ForestryForestry• Disaster managersDisaster managers• Water resource managersWater resource managers• MilitaryMilitary• Red CrossRed Cross• HospitalsHospitals• Civil AviationCivil Aviation• ConstructionConstruction• TourismTourism

Information DisseminationInformation Dissemination

• FMS Monthly Weather SummaryFMS Monthly Weather Summary

• Website: Website: http://www.met.gov.fj/http://www.met.gov.fj/

• Media (Newspapers/radio)Media (Newspapers/radio)

• Direct contactDirect contact

• Press ReleasesPress Releases

• DMET’s monthly meeting with DISMACDMET’s monthly meeting with DISMAC

Concerns and Future NeedsConcerns and Future Needs

• Users – sceptical about forecast – still Users – sceptical about forecast – still fairly new concept in this regionfairly new concept in this region

• Lack of understanding (or acceptance) Lack of understanding (or acceptance) of probabilistic forecastsof probabilistic forecasts

• Need for public education on ENSONeed for public education on ENSO• Need to expand user networkNeed to expand user network• Need for timely national climate forumNeed for timely national climate forum• Need to further customise user productsNeed to further customise user products

Concerns and Future NeedsConcerns and Future Needs

• Educating the media is most neededEducating the media is most needed

• Limited interaction between FMS and Limited interaction between FMS and water sector – should be enhancedwater sector – should be enhanced

• Examples like FSC and FPL should be Examples like FSC and FPL should be applied in other sectorsapplied in other sectors

Main PointsMain Points• FMS example can be applied to other PIC.FMS example can be applied to other PIC.

• Local knowledge is important and should Local knowledge is important and should be usedbe used

• Regional/global models can be applied Regional/global models can be applied but there may be a need to downscalebut there may be a need to downscale

• Climate forecasting is still fairly new in Climate forecasting is still fairly new in the Region – public awareness is vital the Region – public awareness is vital

• Many prefer deterministic forecastsMany prefer deterministic forecasts