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RAMBOLL SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY INITIATIVES “STRONGER TOGETHER”
Henrik Rosenberg Seiding
Senior Director,
Rambøll Management Consulting 1
2
OUR ORGANISATION
3
THE FIVE GLOBAL MEGATRENDS…
Demographic changes
Urbanisation Climate change &
Environmental problems
Natural resource shortages
Globalisation
Ageing population, migration as challenge and opportunity, increasing
demand on health services
Safe cities, sustainable urban
development, competition on job creation and
green growth
Degradation of ecosystem,
global warming conditions
Increasing demand, lack of
governance structures
Competition on societies and
business becomes more global
SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY INITIATIVES
• Our Sustainable Society Platform
• Liveable Cities
• Society Building
• Arctic 360
• 2016 Summary
5
THE GROUP STRATEGY “STRONGER TOGETHER” IDENTIFIES SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES AS A KEY STRATEGIC FOCUS AREA
WHY sustainable societies? • Ramboll has the brand equity and full suite of skills
necessary to deliver such services
• Greater cooperation between businesses will enable this focus
• These markets, while modest, are high margin and high growth in their own right
• Additionally such services can provide access to new international customers, and will motivate our team by reinforcing our core DNA
Develop and capitalise on our sustainable society platform
WHAT will we do? • To provide a focus in Sustainable Society,
leveraging our USP and allowing our business to grow
• Establish a reputation as world-leader in Sustainable Society
• Adjust our portfolio to serve this purpose, acquiring and reorganising internally where possible
6
Further develop and test our sustainable cities offering
Use our strong public sector platform to build a position as a global leader within society- building
Bring a One Company offering to the Arctic 360
DEVELOP AND CAPITALISE ON OUR SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY PLATFORM AS “ONE COMPANY”
7
SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES - RAMBOLL HAS A UNIQUE COMBINED OFFERING
Society Economy Fair
Liveable
Physical
structures Environment
Resilient Coherent Liveable Cities
Society Building
Priorities Investments
Changes
Institutional
Capacity
Rules and
Regulations
Social
Coherence
Operations
Management
Competences
to Execute
8
SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY INITIATIVES
• Our Sustainable Society Platform
• Liveable Cities
• Society Building
• Arctic 360
• 2016 Summary
9
OUR HERITAGE PROVIDES CREDIBILITY WHEN ADDRESSING CITIES WITH AMBITIONS TO BECOME MORE LIVEABLE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Index
Green city index - Top 30 from Europe and North America, 2012 Key
Ramboll Home Market
Other market
Source: Siemens
Four of the home market capitals of Ramboll are on the top 10
10
THE MARKET IS ATTRACTIVE
11
•The total turnover for city planning in listed cities is expected to be 1.7 billion DKK.
•New York accounts for 417 million DKK in expected turnover – equivalent to 24 % of total turnover of listed cities.
•London accounts for 387 million DKK – equivalent to 22 % of total turnover.
•Singapore accounts for 159 million DKK – equivalent to 9 % of total turnover.
Note: *Dubai GDP pr. cap. is based on real GDP 2010, **Hyderabad GDP pr. cap. is based on GDP (PPP) 2008.
Source: CIA Factbook 2012, PWC Report, Economic Outlook November 2009, reuters.com
Million DKK (2011)
115
60
70 Dubai*
Berlin
35
36 Stockholm
Oslo 37
Hyderabad** 51
Warsaw
83
Chicago
30
Helsinki 34
Amsterdam
Delhi
Ottawa 27
25 Copenhagen
Beijing 156
Singapore 159
London 387
New York 417
Total 1.746
Mumbai 24
50
51
32
9
40
25
35
35
7
68
45
47
60
1
34
49
2
34
Investments in city planning pr. capita in DKK.
Estimated City planning Turnover in selected Cities around the world
Ramboll presence
WHAT IS OUR LIVEABLE CITIES CONCEPT?
• Developing a sustainable city requires a holistic city strategy, clever planning and multiple solutions combined in a clever manner
• With our Sustainable Cities initiative we are primarily targeting the strategic consultancy level
• However, the strategic consultancy services should lead to additional engagements at both the planning and solutions levels
• Our strategic consultancy services are organised in the “Liveable Cities Lab” (LCL)
LIVEABLE CITIES LAB (LCL)
12
LIVEABLE CITIES WORKSTREAMS
Initiation Projects & Marketing
LCL Research & Innovation
LCL Academy
Ramboll is a market leader within liveable city development
Ramboll is recognised for thought leadership within city development
Ramboll’s city development capacity is increased and customer relations are strengthened
13
EXAMPLES OF INITIATION PROJECTS
Through selected initation projects the LCL will explore new and innovative ways of addressing customers and city challenges. The LCL will serve as a spearhead and facilitator and together with relevant Ramboll units position Ramboll towards the customers and bring in Ramboll services in new combinations. Examples:
Pilot Projects, Marketing & Business development
Grosvenor Estates
Ramboll UK has a framework contract with Grosvenor Estates, which owns large parts of central London (e.g. Mayfair and South Kensington). Ramboll has been asked to provide a series of “think pieces” that presents a “radical” approach to developing a sustainable estate. The LCL will join forces with RUK on this.
Tver Smart City
Together with Shell, Grundfoss, Danfoss, IKEA, ABB and others Ramboll has been asked to provide input to a new growth model for Russian cities with Tver as a pilot city. LCL will head up pilot studies on energy efficiency and LNG as transportation fuel
ME liveable cities concept - Souk of Life/ Oman
The growing economy and urban development in the Middle East is catering for a holistic sustainable approach. Together with international developers, the local Municipality and architects, the LCL, Atelier Dreiseitl/Ramboll will initiate a joint effort to cultural sensitive and environmental friendly spaces and infrastructures.
Revitalising the Finnish suburban landscape RFI, the municipalities of Espoo and Helsinki together with Aalto University will look for better socio-economic and environmental solutions to integrate fragile Finish suburban landscapes with infrastructures in order to make them more vibrant, attractive and liveable.
14
REVENUE ON LIVEABLE CITIES IS ESTIMATED TO 800 MDKK IN 2016
320 368 424 487
279
9083
75
+30%
2016
803
106
120
2015
665
79 80
2014
561
58 60
2013
397
40 37
2012
• Estimated revenue in 2012 is 279 million DKK
• Forecasted revenue in 2016 is 803 million DK, i.e. an annual growth of 30%
Annual revenue, million DKK
"Do nothing" scenario, incl. 15% organic growth**
Strategic focus on cities, including Liveable Cities Lab
Atelier Dreiseitl
Downstream engineering revenue from city initiatives ”Classic”, big engineering projects* and services following from strategic city consultancy and Dreiseitl clients. E.g.: • Jakarta dug and cover tunnel • Copenhagen Cloud Burst
15 *Average contract size of downstream projects assumed to be 20 mDKK: 3 projects in year 2014, 4 in 2015, 6 in 2016.
**High-growth market also in the absence of AD acquisition and increased Ramboll focus
LCL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 2013
Initiation Projects & Marketing
• 3 international projects in selected focus areas initiated
• 3-5 Marketing Initiatives delivered, including LCL film,
interviews and articles for Ramboll‘s website
• 5 keynotes at high profile city events
• 2 Marketing packages developed
• Academy
• 2-3 Academy events
Research and Innovation
• 1-2 research projects initiated (e.g. with University of
Singapore)
• Collaboration ties with 3 international universities
established
16
SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY INITIATIVES
• Our Sustainable Society Platform
• Liveable Cities
• Society Building
• Arctic 360
• 2016 Summary
17
SOCIETY BUILDING CAN TAKE OUR PUBLIC SECTOR EXPERTISE GLOBAL
WHY Society building?
• It touches on nearly all aspects of government
• …and provides customers with a broad range of management consulting services
• Society building is based on one of our core strengths
Economics Rules,
regulations
Public policy welfare sectors
Ramboll Sectors
Social and Economic impacts Feasibility Studies
Planning and execution
• Management Consulting Services can form the integrator in the Ramboll service portfolio.
• Especially Socio Economics, Feasibility analyses, Social impacts and Legal Services are obvious levers.
• Specific focus on European Commission puts Ramboll in front of the policy making processes in Europe.
What is in focus?
18
MARKET POTENTIAL WITHIN SOCIETY BUILDING
19
Source: RMC Analysis
• The total market potential for services
for the European Commission, Socio-
economic analysis and Master planning
is estimated to be 2.6 billion DKK.
• Master planning (strategic advisory and
stakeholder management) is the largest
potential market with an estimated size
of 1.2 billion DKK.
Estimated market, million DKK
335
149
104
Total
2.590
Master planning (strategic advisory and stakeholder management)
1.178
Socio-economic analysis
European Commission
1.077
358
281
67 117
Other institutions
BUSINESS
CLIMATE
TRANSPORT
ENVIRONMENT
ENERGY
SOCIETY BUILDING WORK STREAMS
Go international with Public Sector Development Expand present market focus to new markets
Develop Society Building Offering Penetrate new domains – socio economics, feasibility analyses, master planning and capacity to execute
Centres of Excellence Establish well recognized Centres of Excellence on
Economics and Legal services
Management Consulting services present on all Ramboll Markets. Leading consultant for European Commission customers
Well recognized consultancy within master planning and infrastructure projects. Extending services to policy developments
Centres of Excellence on Economics and Legal services form a competence backbone for the entire Ramboll Group
20
SOCIETY BUILDING PROJECT EXAMPLES
Policy level: Mid-term evaluation of the Intelligent Transport Systems Action Plan
The EU ITS Action Plan aims to address market failures by fostering the use of ICT in road transport while reconciling the growing mobility needs of citizens. The Ramboll evaluation helps to ensure that the Action Plan continues to address obstacles to the appropriate deployment of ITS in Europe.
Master planning: How can the city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia become sustainable in 2030?
How can the City of Jeddah become one of the worlds most sustainable cities in 2030, and what are the environmental and social issues that Jeddah faces? The Ramboll analysis establishes a master plan for the most efficient ways of achieving the strategic goals. Counting in “saved” costs of degradation, needed investments and societal possibilities.
Policy level: Climate strategies for the city of Dresden
The Ramboll analysis estimated energy consumption costs today and described different scenarios for achieving the goal of 10 percent reduction in 2013. The analysis was subsequently used to develop policy choices
Society building: Social cohesion and developments as a part of city developments How can Gjellerup in Aarhus or Norrebro in Copenhagen become more coherent and secure? How can investments in buildings and infrastructure help achieve societal goals? Ramboll included stakeholder engagements, community hearings and inquiring in our approach. We “understood” the social dynamics in Norrebro based on anthropological methods. 21
17 1530
5260
134
+49%
2016
37
37
2015
112
30
30
2014
67
15
22
2013
34
11
7
2012
28
9 1
• Estimated revenue in 2012 is 28 MDKK (4 MEUR)
• Forecasted revenue 2016 is 134 MDKK (18 MEUR), i.e. an annual growth of 49%
Annual revenue, million DKK
EU operations - policy studies
Social Economic analyses and feasibility
Master planning, stakeholder engagements
IN SOCIETY BUILDING WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT REVENUE INCREASE
22
THE RMC SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY DIVISION IS ALREADY EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS
RESULTS The first 6 months of 2013 indicate that the Sustainable Society division is on a very good track. H1 2013 EBITA of 3.9 MDKK compared to a budget of 1.1 MDKK.
EBITA, Sustainable Society Division, tDKK
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
1.500
500
0
1.000
2.000
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan May Apr Mar Feb
+265%
Dec Label
Budget
Actual
23
SOCIETY BUILDING PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 2013
European Commission Market
• Strategic Framework Contracts on Transport, Energy,
Climate and Environment
• Conference on smart regulation and impact assessments
to be held by end 2013
Socio Economics
• Established Group wide Centre of Excellence
• Framework Contract for Danish Ministry of Finance
Master planning
• 1-2 large scale master planning projects outside Denmark
conducted.
• Conceptualisation and use of methods on stakeholder
engagements and institutional capacity building.
24
SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY INITIATIVES
• Our Sustainable Society Platform
• Liveable Cities
• Society Building
• Arctic 360
• 2016 Summary
25
THE ARCTIC MARKET IS LARGE… Estimated investment in consulting services* pr. sector, billion DKK (including US and Canada)
26
Other Energy
28-29
Oil/gas*
98-103
170-205
Total Society Building
6-9
Environment
14-24
Mining
10-22
Transport
13-19
*The percentage of the total investment dedicated to consulting services is based on the best estimates by Ramboll’s regional market experts.
ARCTIC MARKET OUTLOOK 2010-2020+
• The share of the total investments in consulting services is 169-205 billion DKK, that is 5-6% of total investments. • The main part of consulting services is expected to be within the Energy sector, mainly Oil and gas, with 98 – 103 billion DKK. • Large investments for consulting services in Society Building, Environment, Mining and Transport must also be expected. • *Not adjusted for a possible reduction in Oil & Gas investments (cf. “shale revolution” discussion)
… AND WE HAVE A STRONG PLATFORM IN THE REGION
A strong position in the Arctic region
• Ramboll is the leading consultancy in the Arctic
region
• We have 30+ years of experience designing
and implementing projects
• More than 400 Ramboll engineers and technical
and social scientists work in the North
• We have 21 offices in Arctic areas of Finland,
Sweden, Norway and Greenland
What we do
• We provide multi-disciplinary engineering and
management services
• We offer the full scope of the value chain: from
idea phase and strategy development to execution
of large-scale projects
• We facilitate environmentally and socially
responsible projects
• We use our Ramboll heritage to build a bridge
between projects, society, and regulators
27
ARCTIC 360 WORK STREAMS
Arctic Account Programme
Arctic Competences
Ramboll is perceived as
thought leader for Arctic
development
Ramboll has an Arctic
customer portfolio with a
turnover > 700 mDKK in
2016
Ramboll’s Arctic
competences ensure
sustainable solutions
Arctic profiling
28
Statoil
Narvik Havn
Statnett
Barents Freeway Forum
Kirkenes Havn
Tromsø Havn
Bodø Havn
Dalradian Resoruces
AP Møller Maersk
Danbor
Norway
LKAB
Boliden
Northland Resources
PEAB
Sweden
Talvivaara
Liikennevirasto
Ministry of Transport
Fingrid
Finland
London Mining
Arctic Base Supply (Danbor)
Nuukissiorfiit
Greenlandic Government
LNS Greenland
True North Games
Greenland
Vattenfall
Svenska Kraftnet
Statkraft
Energy
Statoil
Gassco
ENI
Maersk Drilling
Maersk Oil
Shell
Conoco Phillips
Oil&Gas
Greenlandic Government
Swedish Government
Norwegian Government
Finnish Government
Icelandic Government
European Commission
Man. Consult.
Note The program me includes existing customers, new Arctic customers, and customers new to the Arctic. Some are already Global or PBU accounts
ARCTIC PRIORITY CUSTOMERS
29
ARCTIC 360 PROJECT EXAMPLES
Environmental Impact Assessment of the extension of the Talvivaara Mine, Finland
The goal of the expansion project is to utilize the significant ore deposit of the area and to secure the operational competitiveness of the mining company and the employment situation in the future. The mine expansion means new power lines, enlarged sulphurid acid plant, revised water management scheme and increased power production. Ramboll conducted EIA according to national legislation in preparation for the license to enlarge the mine.
Gällivare. An Arctic World Class City in Sweden
Gällivare is facing large changes, amongst other because of land requirements for the iron ore mining. Furthermore , 60% of Gällivare municipality stands under nature conservation and the city is the main gate to Laponia. Ramboll assists the municipality in preparing a strategic regional plan taking into consideration not only the development of the mining industry, but also how to further develop tourism and outdoor life. The work includes a comprehensive outreach and stakeholder dialogue program.
The Barents Freeway
Transport links in the Barents Region, which straddles northern Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Russia, have historically been developed from north to south with little consideration given to integrating networks across national borders. Ramboll is part of a consortium, which will pave the way for cohesive and optimised future development of the transport network in the region.
Environmental and social impact assessment of offshore drilling for Oil & Gas in Baffin Bay To date, Shell has completed a Site Hazards Survey (2011), a Shallow Coring Project (2012) and a 3D Seismic Survey (2012). Depending on the results of the 2012 activities, Shell may pursue exploratory drilling. Under the Greenlandic Minerals Act, exploration activities require ESIA. Ramboll assisted Shell in conducting the required research, environmental and social assessments for the application for a permit to start up exploratory drilling in 2014. 30
OUR ARCTIC REVENUE IN 2016 IS ESTIMATED TO APP. 700 MDKK.
31
+20%
2013
379
346
0 33
2012
330
330
0 0
87
199
2015
536
381
58
97
2014
449
363
29
57
687
401
2016
"Do nothing" baseline, incl. 5% organic growth
Increased revenue from Arctic focus
Growth in Arctic market size / new customers
• Estimated revenue in 2012 is 330 million DKK
• Forecasted revenue in 2016 is 687 million DKK, i.e. an annual growth of 20%
Annual revenue, million DKK
ARCTIC PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 2013
Gross Revenue + 6 million Euro
• Organic growth, 5% equivalent to +2 million Euro
• Arctic Focus, +4 million Euro
Profile
• Identification and analysis of stakeholders, priorities
• 10+20 Ramboll round table participants (among priority stakeholders)
• Increased news paper coverage in Nordic countries
Customers
• Arctic project relationship with 2 new customers in our priority customer group
• MS CRM tested and assessed
Capacity
• Signature projects described in RamLink in English
• Identified capacity gaps and plan for filling the gaps
32
SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY INITIATIVES
• Our Sustainable Society Platform
• Liveable Cities
• Society Building
• Arctic 360
• 2016 Summary
33
BUILDING A POSITION AS THE LEADING SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY CONSULTANT
• In 2016 we want to be seen as the leading sustainable
society consultant by building a position as thought leader within sustainable cities, arctic and sustainable society building.
• This means we are widely recognised for the long term value we bring to society and communities around us by providing sustainable solutions to challenges posed by the megatrends.
34
SUPPLEMENTS
35