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Ranking climate change adaptation options through multi-criteria analysis
Karianne de BruinSenior Research Fellow – CICERO
NZCCRI Seminar SeriesWednesday 4th December 2013
Decision support tools
The Netherlands
India
Robust decision makingDecision support
tools
Multi‐criteria analysis
Cost‐effectiveness
analysis
Portfolio analysis
Real options analysis
Iterative risk (adaptive)
management
Cost‐benefit analysis
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Decision support tools
Robust decision making
Decision support tools
Multi‐criteria analysis
Cost‐effectiveness
analysis
Portfolio analysis
Real options analysis
Iterative risk (adaptive)
management
Cost‐benefit analysis
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Robust decision making
Decision support tools
Multi‐criteria analysis
Cost‐effectiveness
analysis
Portfolio analysis
Real options analysis
Iterative risk (adaptive)
management
Cost‐benefit analysis
Multi-Criteria Analysis
Approach that allows consideration of both quantitative and qualitative data in the ranking of alternative options
Systematic method for assessing and scoring options against a range of decision criteria
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Approach (1)
- Identify alternative options- Select criteria- Scores options against criteria- Assign weights to each criterion- Calculate weighted sum- Rank options
Approach (2)Urgency Feasibility Costs …
…
3 2 1
5
4 3
5 5
5
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Strengths
- Combine quantitative and qualitative data
- Transparent and simple method
- Involvement stakeholders
- Subjective scoring and weighting
- Analysis of uncertainty
Weaknesses
Application to adaptation
- Consideration of relevant criteria- Analysis with qualitative information
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Multi Criteria Adaptation Assessment in the Netherlands
Photo: Karianne de Bruin
Background (1)
Routeplanner project
- Formulation of adaptation options
- A qualitative assessment of adaptation options
- A quantitative assessment of adaptation options
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Background (2)
Project team
Environmental Economics and Natural Resources group – Wageningen University
In co-operation with: RIZA, RIKZ, ESA-WUR, Alterra, LEI, PRI, Erasmus University
Funding
BSIK program’s Climate change Spatial Planning, Living with Water, Habiforum
Governmental departments in cooperation with the Associations of Provincial Authorities, Netherlands Municipalities and Water Boards
Starting point
Climate change scenario relevant for the Netherlands for the period up to 2050
Source: KNMI, 2006
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Methodology
- Identification of adaptation options- Characteristics of the options- Definition of criteria- Determining the scores- Determining the weights
MCA for ranking the adaptation options
Identification options
96 adaptation options identified
Sectors:- Agriculture- Nature- Water- Energy & Transport- Housing & Infrastructure- Health- Recreation & Tourism
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Criteria for scoring (1)
Evaluation criteria
ImportanceUrgencyNo-regret characteristicsCo-benefitsEffect on mitigation
Criteria for scoring (2)
Feasibility criteria
Technical complexitySocial complexityInstitutional complexity
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Scoring
Options scored on evaluation and feasibility criteria by experts
Ranking
Ranking based on ordered criteria (e.g. 1 urgency, 2 importance, etc.)
Ranking based on criteria weighting (e.g. 40% importance, 20% urgency)
Criteria Ordering WeightsImportance 1 40%Urgency 2 20%No regret 3 15%Ancillary benefits 4 15%Mitigation effect 5 10%
Criteria Ordering WeightsImportance 1 40%Urgency 2 20%No regret 3 15%Ancillary benefits 4 15%Mitigation effect 5 10%
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Database
Results (1)
Highest priority (weighted summation)- Integrated nature and water management- Integrated coastal zone management- More space for water- Risk based allocation policy- Risk management as basic strategy- New institutional alliances- Design and implementation of ecological networks- Construct buildings differently- Change modes of transport- Make existing and new cities robust
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Results (2)
Lowest priority (weighted summation)- Subsoil drainage of peat lands- Reclamation of (part of) southern North Sea- Abandoning of the whole of low-lying Netherlands- Self sufficiency in production of roughage
Follow-up
National Strategy on Adapting Spatial Planning to Climate Change (ARK), with the aim of ‘climate proofing’ the Netherlands
From the National Adaptation Strategy to the Deltaprogramme, where the Dutch government formulated new priorities in the field of adaptation to climate change
http://www.climateresearchnetherlands.nl/ARKprogramme
http://www.deltacommissie.com/en/advies
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Participatory assessment of adaptation options, India
Photo: Karianne de Bruin
Background (1)
Pilot project ‘Extreme risks, vulnerabilities and Community-Based Adaptation (EVA)’ in India
Impacts of extreme weather events on agriculture and water resources in the drought-prone Jalna district, Maharashtra
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Background (2)
Five partners in consortium: AFPRO, TERI and CIENS (NIBR, CICERO, NIVA)
Funded by the Norwegian Embassy, New Delhi
Participatory assessment
- Long-list of 26 adaptation options identified, focused on agriculture, water and social development
- Definition of criteria- Block-level officers and at village cluster
level rank criteria and score adaptation options
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Field work
Photos: Ulka Kelkar & Karianne de Bruin
Preliminary results (1)
- Construction of water conservation structures- Educating youth
- Integrated farming system- Ground water regulation- Water budgeting
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Preliminary results (2)
- Water conservation
- Drip irrigation- Women’s capacity
building - Strengthening of
self-help groups for credit
Photo: Karianne de Bruin
Multi-criteria analysis
Decision support tools
Multi‐criteria analysis
Cost‐effectiveness
analysis
Cost‐benefit analysis
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Summary
- Decision-support tool to assess and rank adaptation options
- Broad applicability- Combine with economic assessment of
costs and benefits
Strengths
- Combine quantitative and qualitative data
- Transparent and simple method
- Involvement of experts and stakeholders
- Subjective scoring and weighting
- Analysis of uncertainty
Weaknesses
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References
- De Bruin, K., R.B. Dellink, A. Ruijs, L. Bolwidt, A. van Buuren, J. Graveland, R.S. de Groot, P.J. Kuikman, S. Reinhard, R.P. Roetter, V.C. Tassone, A. Verhagen and E.C. van Ierland (2009). Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives. Climatic Change 95(1-2): 23-45 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9576-4)
- Van Ierland, E.C., de Bruin, K., and Watkiss, P. (2013). Multi-Criteria Analysis: Decision Support Methods for Adaptation, MEDIATION Project, Briefing Note 6. Funded by the EC’s 7FWP – including references for further reading
- Van Ierland, E.C., de Bruin, K. and R.B. Dellink, forthcoming. Prioritisation of adaptation options for the Netherlands: A Multi-Criteria Analysis. Climate Change Adaptation Manual, Lessons learned from European and Other Industrialised Countries. Edited by: A. Prutsch, T. Grothmann, S. McCallum, I. Schauser and R. Swart. Routledge
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Thank you for your attention
Contact details: [email protected]
Photo: Karianne de Bruin
