8
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 12 May 2017 Update RATINGS Caja Rural de Navarra Domicile Spain Long Term Debt Not Assigned Type Not Assigned Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Deposit Baa2 Type LT Bank Deposits - Dom Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Analyst Contacts Maria Vinuela 34-91-768-8237 Assistant Vice President - Analyst [email protected] Alberto Postigo 34-91-768-8230 VP-Sr Credit Officer - Banking [email protected] Carola Schuler 49-69-70730-766 Managing Director - Banking [email protected] Pedro Rodriguez 34-91-768-8244 Associate Analyst [email protected] Caja Rural de Navarra Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2 Summary Rating Rationale On 10 May 2017, we affirmed Caja Rural de Navarra (CRN)’s long-term deposit ratings at Baa2 with a stable outlook. The bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA were also affirmed at baa2. The rating action was prompted by our change of the banking Macro Profile of Spain (Baa2 stable) to “Strong-” from “Moderate +”. CRN's Baa2/Prime-2 deposit ratings reflect (1) the bank's baa2 BCA; and (2) our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which translates into no notches of rating uplift. CRN's Counterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment) is Baa1(cr)/Prime-2 (cr). CRN's BCA of baa2 reflects the bank's sound financial fundamentals, namely (1) its stronger asset quality performance compared with that of the wider Spanish banking system; (2) its sound capitalisation levels; and (3) its stable retail deposit base and low reliance on wholesale funding. The bank's BCA also reflects CRN's modest, albeit stable, profitability levels, and the limited geographical diversification of its franchise, concentrated in Navarra and neighbouring regions. CRN’s BCA is constrained at the level of the Spanish sovereign rating. Under Moody's methodology, a bank’s BCA will not typically exceed the sovereign rating absent any factor that reduces the dependency between the creditworthiness of that bank and the sovereign. Therefore, any upward pressure on Caja Rural de Navarra’s ratings is dependent on an upgrade of the government of Spain's ratings, thereby lifting the current constraint on the bank's BCA. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios 4.3% 13.6% 0.5% 17.4% 29.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) Caja Rural de Navarra (BCA: baa2) Median baa2-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

RATINGS - cajarural.com · Pedro Rodriguez 34-91-768-8244 ... (1) the bank's baa2 BCA; and (2) ... All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2]

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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION12 May 2017

Update

RATINGS

Caja Rural de NavarraDomicile Spain

Long Term Debt Not Assigned

Type Not Assigned

Outlook Not Assigned

Long Term Deposit Baa2

Type LT Bank Deposits - DomCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Analyst Contacts

Maria Vinuela 34-91-768-8237Assistant VicePresident - [email protected]

Alberto Postigo 34-91-768-8230VP-Sr Credit Officer [email protected]

Carola Schuler 49-69-70730-766Managing Director [email protected]

Pedro Rodriguez 34-91-768-8244Associate [email protected]

Caja Rural de NavarraUpdate Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2

Summary Rating RationaleOn 10 May 2017, we affirmed Caja Rural de Navarra (CRN)’s long-term deposit ratings atBaa2 with a stable outlook. The bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCAwere also affirmed at baa2. The rating action was prompted by our change of the bankingMacro Profile of Spain (Baa2 stable) to “Strong-” from “Moderate +”.

CRN's Baa2/Prime-2 deposit ratings reflect (1) the bank's baa2 BCA; and (2) our AdvancedLoss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which translates into no notches of rating uplift. CRN'sCounterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment) is Baa1(cr)/Prime-2 (cr).

CRN's BCA of baa2 reflects the bank's sound financial fundamentals, namely (1) its strongerasset quality performance compared with that of the wider Spanish banking system; (2)its sound capitalisation levels; and (3) its stable retail deposit base and low reliance onwholesale funding. The bank's BCA also reflects CRN's modest, albeit stable, profitabilitylevels, and the limited geographical diversification of its franchise, concentrated in Navarraand neighbouring regions.

CRN’s BCA is constrained at the level of the Spanish sovereign rating. Under Moody'smethodology, a bank’s BCA will not typically exceed the sovereign rating absent any factorthat reduces the dependency between the creditworthiness of that bank and the sovereign.Therefore, any upward pressure on Caja Rural de Navarra’s ratings is dependent on anupgrade of the government of Spain's ratings, thereby lifting the current constraint on thebank's BCA.

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key Financial Ratios

4.3% 13.6%

0.5%

17.4% 29.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

Caja Rural de Navarra (BCA: baa2) Median baa2-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit Strengths

» Sound brand recognition and market positioning in Navarra

» Improving asset quality indicators that are significantly stronger than the system average

» Sound solvency levels

» Low reliance on market funding, the majority of which is secured

Credit Challenges

» Geographical concentration renders the bank vulnerable to negative developments affecting its home region

» CRN has traditionally shown modest profitability indicators, although they compare better than system average

Rating OutlookThe outlook on CRN’s long-term deposit ratings is stable, in line with the outlook of the Spanish sovereign rating.

Factors that Could Lead to an UpgradeAny upward pressure on CRN's BCA is unlikely to materialise as long as the Spanish government's bond rating remains at Baa2,because, absent any factor that reduces the dependency between the creditworthiness of a bank and the sovereign, the BCA will nottypically exceed the sovereign rating under Moody’s methodology.

An upgrade of CRN's deposit ratings could arise as a result of changes in the liability structure that indicate a lower loss-given-failure tobe faced by deposits.

Factors that Could Lead to a DowngradeDownward pressure could be exerted on CRN's BCA as a result of: (1) an unexpected considerable worsening in the bank's asset qualityindicators, which would align the bank's performance closer to that of the comparatively weaker banking system; (2) a weakening ofthe bank's risk-absorption capacity through earnings-generation capacity or capital levels; and/or (3) any worsening, beyond our currentexpectations, in operating conditions in the Spanish operating environment, particularly in the region of Navarra.

CRN's deposit ratings could also change as a result of alterations to the bank’s liability structure, which would indicate a higher loss-given-failure to be faced by deposits.

Negative pressure on the BCA and in turn on the debt and deposit ratings could also result from a downgrade of the Spanishgovernment ratings, which are currently at Baa2 stable.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 12 May 2017 Caja Rural de Navarra: Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Key Indicators

Exhibit 2

Caja Rural de Navarra (Consolidated Financials) [1]12-152 12-142 12-133 12-123 12-113 Avg.

Total Assets (EUR million) 9,860 9,652 9,662 9,594 7,991 5.44

Total Assets (USD million) 10,711 11,680 13,314 12,649 10,374 0.84

Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) 872 795 750 704 738 4.34

Tangible Common Equity (USD million) 948 962 1,034 928 958 -0.34

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 3.4 4.4 5.2 4.3 3.9 4.25

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 13.6 13.6 12.0 11.3 12.5 13.66

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 20.0 26.5 32.8 28.5 27.3 27.05

Net Interest Margin (%) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.45

PPI / Average RWA (%) 2.1 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.2 2.16

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.35

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 52.3 49.2 55.1 50.1 60.6 53.55

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 17.4 22.5 27.7 30.4 25.0 24.65

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 29.0 30.4 26.4 18.8 15.1 24.05

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 103.1 105.5 111.6 115.0 128.0 112.65

[1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [3] Basel II; IFRS [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%).Any interim period amounts presented are assumed to be fiscal year end amounts for calculation purposes [5] Simple average of periods presented [6] Simple average of Basel III periodspresentedSource: Moody's Financial Metrics

Detailed Rating ConsiderationsSOUND BRAND RECOGNITION AND MARKET POSITIONING IN NAVARRAWith total assets of EUR11.0 billion at end-December 2016, CRN is the second-largest rural co-operative bank in Spain. The bank isassociated with 28 other rural co-operatives under the Spanish Rural Co-operatives Association (Asociacion Espanola de Cajas Rurales).

CRN is primarily based in Navarra. It also operates in the neighbouring regions of La Rioja and the Basque Country as the only ruralcredit co-operative. With market shares of 23.4% in lending and 27.2% in deposits at end-December 2016, CRN is ranked second inNavarra, behind Caixabank (deposits Baa2 positive, BCA ba1). Despite its small size, CRN has strong brand recognition and marketpositioning in its home region.

Navarra is one of the wealthiest regions in Spain, with an unemployment rate of 10.3%, compared with the nationwide unemploymentrate of 18.2% as of end-March 2017. Its GDP per capita is around 20% higher than the Spanish average as of end-December 2015(latest available data).

Spanish rural co-operatives have benefitted from the integration of some of their direct local competitors - former savings banks -into major financial groups that have attained a nationwide presence, following the restructuring process of the Spanish financialsystem. In particular, CRN's direct competitor Caja de Ahorros de Navarra was integrated into Caixabank (through Banca Civica). Theseintegrations have led to the weakening or loss of regional identity for the merged entities, which prompted some customer flight fromthe integrated entities to rural co-operatives.

As a domestic player, CRN's macro profile now stands at Strong- (Moderate + previously), following the recent improvement of theMacro Profile of Spain. The change in the country's Macro Profile assessment reflects the significant deleveraging of the private sectorand thereby the achieved improvements in the operating conditions for banks in Spain (for further detail please see “Spain MacroProfile: Strong -”).

IMPROVING ASSET QUALITY INDICATORS THAT ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SYSTEM AVERAGECRN's asset-quality indicators have historically performed better than the Spanish banking system average, owing to the bank's moreprudent risk management, its relatively low exposure to the real-estate sector and its activities being limited to its regional territories.At the end of December 2016, CRN reported a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 2.6%, down from 3.4% a year earlier, while the

3 12 May 2017 Caja Rural de Navarra: Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

same ratio for the banking system stood at 8.6%. The bank's coverage ratio - defined as NPLs as a percentage of loan loss reserves -stood at a high 89% at end-December 2016, compared to the system average of 57%.

In addition to NPLs, CRN has other problematic exposures related to real-estate assets it acquired over the past few years. If these areincluded, the NPL ratio rises to 4.5%, which still compares very favourably with that of its domestic peers. Refinanced loans classifiedas performing represented just 1.4% of total loans as of end-December 2016.

We expect that this improving trend will continue during the next 12 months as the domestic economy maintains a healthy growthrate, which will help the bank to reduce its provisioning costs further.

CRN's assigned Asset Risk score of baa1 incorporates its very low level of problematic assets relative to the system, as well as thelimited geographical diversification of the bank’s franchise.

SOUND SOLVENCY LEVELSCRN's capital is mainly composed of retained earnings and “aportaciones” on which it pays interest. Therefore, in common with otherrural co-operatives, the bank has flexibility to raise capital from co-operative members. In line with Spanish legislation, CRN allocatespart of its net profit to a welfare fund, although it retains most of the profit to support capital generation and to fund future growth.This profit retention translates into CRN's higher-than-average capital ratios. At end-December 2016, the bank's tangible commonequity to risk-weighted assets ratio stood at 13.9%, which is equivalent to a Capital score of a3. This high score indicates that CRN'scapitalisation is a relative strength for the bank's BCA.

In terms of regulatory capital ratios, CRN reported a phased-in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 16.2% at end-December 2016and a fully loaded CET1 ratio of 17.0%. The bank aims to grow its CET1 ratio by around 1 percentage point in the following three years,mainly through profit retention.

MODEST PROFITABILITY INDICATORS, ALBEIT HIGHER THAN SYSTEM AVERAGECRN's top-line earnings have been broadly stable over the last years, as opposed to system trends. At end-December 2016, the bank'sreported net interest income of EUR145 million, similar to the level reported a year earlier. This stability, combined with a 6% increasein operating expenses, led to a pre-provision income of EUR120 million, compared to EUR127 million a year earlier.

Bottom-line profitability has been supported by the resilience of CRN's top-line revenues. CRN reported a net profit of EUR70 millionat end-December 2016, which is equivalent to a net income to tangible assets ratio of 0.6% and consistent with a modest ba1Profitability score.

We expect that the bank will benefit from Spain's improved economic conditions going forward, which are likely to enable it togradually improve business volumes from the current subdued levels, and to report lower provisioning requirements as asset-qualitymetrics improve. The bank’s ba1 Profitability score already reflects our expectations regarding the bank’s profitability over the next 12to 18 months.

RETAIL FUNDING HAS PROVEN RESILIENT THROUGHOUT THE CRISISCRN is predominantly retail-funded. At end-December 2016, deposits accounted for around 74% of its total funding after growing byaround 15% since the end of 2014, representing around 100% of the bank’s gross loans. CRN's regional identity adds a component ofstability to its retail funding base, especially considering that its direct competitor - a former savings bank - has been integrated intoCaixabank, a large financial group that has a nationwide presence.

Market funding represented a low 17.4% of CRN's tangible banking assets at end-December 2016. Most of CRN's wholesale fundingrepresents covered bonds and repurchase agreements (16% and 10% of total funding at end-December 2016, respectively), all securedfunding sources. Repo financing is primarily used to fund the sovereign portfolio, given the favourable conditions of this funding source.The bank’s limited reliance on market funding is reflected in CRN's Funding Structure score of baa2. The bank does not face any debtmaturity in 2017.

CRN's liquid banking assets accounted for 32% of its tangible banking assets at end-December. We assign a Liquid Resources score ofbaa3 to CRN, one notch below the macro-adjusted score of baa2, to reflect the encumbrance of some of the bank's liquid assets.

4 12 May 2017 Caja Rural de Navarra: Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

According to our liquidity stress test, the bank displays a net positive funding gap (as of end December 2016) in the event that capitalmarkets remained closed for a period of one year. Our stress test includes interbank borrowings, committed undrawn credit linesand the re-issuance of maturing covered bonds, but the stress test excludes the liquidity arising from a potential reduction in CRN'scommercial gap. The bank would also be resilient to our stress scenario of a deposit outflow of 5% for retail deposits, and 25% forcorporate deposits. The stress test also assumes that debt placed among retail investors is not rolled over.

Notching ConsiderationsLOSS GIVEN FAILURECRN is subject to the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime.Accordingly, we apply most of its standard assumptions. These assumptions include a residual tangible common equity of 3%, lossespost-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% run-off in “junior” wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits andassign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. Because we assume that the CRN's deposit base isessentially retail in nature, we consider a proportion of 10% of junior deposits below the estimated EU-wide average of 26%.

For CRN's deposits, our LGF analysis considers the likely impact on loss-given-failure of the combination of its own volume andsubordination. Our LGF analysis indicates a moderate loss-given-failure for deposits, which leads us to position CRN's PreliminaryRating Assessment at the same level as the Adjusted BCA. Please refer to the Loss Given Failure and Government Support table at thebottom of the scorecard.

COUNTERPARTY RISK ASSESSMENTCRN’s CR Assessment is positioned at Baa1(cr), and is constrained by Spain’s sovereign rating of Baa2. Under Moody's methodology,the CR Assessment will not typically exceed the sovereign's own rating by more than one notch.

Prior to the government cap, the CR assessment is positioned two notches above the adjusted BCA of baa2, based on the cushionagainst default provided to the senior obligations represented by the CR Assessment by subordinated instruments amounting to 8.1%of tangible banking assets. The main difference with our Advanced LGF approach used to determine instrument ratings is that the CRAssessment captures the probability of default on certain senior obligations, rather than expected loss, thereby focusing purely onsubordination and taking no account of the volume of the instrument class.

GOVERNMENT SUPPORTWe assign a low probability of government support for CRN deposits, which does not translate into any uplift. Likewise, the CRAssessment does not benefit from any rating uplift from government support.

About Moody's Bank ScorecardOur Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our rating committee's judgment. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

5 12 May 2017 Caja Rural de Navarra: Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Rating Methodology and Scorecard Factors

Exhibit 3

Caja Rural de NavarraMacro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Strong - 100%

Factor HistoricRatio

MacroAdjusted

Score

CreditTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 4.3% baa3 ↑ ↑ baa1 Expected trend Geographical

concentrationCapitalTCE / RWA 13.6% a3 ← → a3 Risk-weighted

capitalisationProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 0.5% ba1 ← → ba1 Return on assets

Combined Solvency Score baa2 baa1LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 17.4% baa2 ← → baa2 Extent of market

funding relianceLiquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 29.0% baa2 ↑ baa3 Asset encumbrance

Combined Liquidity Score baa2 baa2Financial Profile baa1

Business Diversification 0Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments 0Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Baa2Scorecard Calculated BCA range baa1-baa3Assigned BCA baa2Affiliate Support notching 0Adjusted BCA baa2

Balance Sheet in-scope(EUR million)

% in-scope at-failure(EUR million)

% at-failure

Other liabilities 3,274 29.6% 3,797 34.3%Deposits 7,467 67.4% 6,944 62.7%

Preferred deposits 6,720 60.7% 6,384 57.7%Junior Deposits 747 6.7% 560 5.1%

Equity 332 3.0% 332 3.0%Total Tangible Banking Assets 11,073 100% 11,073 100%

6 12 May 2017 Caja Rural de Navarra: Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

De jure waterfall De facto waterfall NotchingDebt classInstrumentvolume +

Subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

Subordination

Sub-ordination

De jure De factoLGF

notchingguidance

versusBCA

AssignedLGF

notching

Additionalnotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Assessment 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 1 1 1 1 0 baa1 (cr)Deposits 8.1% 3.0% 8.1% 3.0% 0 0 0 0 0 baa2

Instrument class Loss GivenFailure notching

AdditionalNotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Assessment 1 0 baa1 (cr) 0 Baa1 (cr) --Deposits 0 0 baa2 0 Baa2 --Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Ratings

Exhibit 4Category Moody's RatingCAJA RURAL DE NAVARRA

Outlook StableBank Deposits -Dom Curr Baa2/P-2Baseline Credit Assessment baa2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment baa2Counterparty Risk Assessment Baa1(cr)/P-2(cr)

Source: Moody's Investors Service

7 12 May 2017 Caja Rural de Navarra: Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

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Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’sOverseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a NationallyRecognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by anentity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registeredwith the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferredstock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it feesranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

REPORT NUMBER 1070892

8 12 May 2017 Caja Rural de Navarra: Update Following Recent Ratings Affirmation at Baa2