The DCF frameworkA DCF model estimates the value of a property by discounting back to the valuation date all future expected cash flows arising from that property. In practical terms, it requires the following:

1. An explicitly forecasted stream of cash flows over a given investment horizon or holding period.

2. An expected value that is assumed to exist at the end of the holding period (often referred to as the ‘terminal value’ or the ‘exit value’).

1. 3.A discount rate that reflects the market and specific project risks.

Explicitly forecasted cash flowsThe estimated cash flows of a property should reflect both income (for example, rental receipts) and expenditures (for example, property taxes and capital investments). Typically, cash flows are explicitly forecasted for five, ten or 15 years. The duration of the forecast period should be based on lease expiry dates, lease renewal periods and break clauses (including the probability of breaks from the lease occurring). Valuation is impacted by the timing of cash flows. Therefore, the more accurate the cash flow frequency is (monthly or quarterly rather than just annually), the more accurate the resulting valuation will be.

Cash outflows that should be included in the DCF model are: Cash used in the initial investment, including loan points and

fees if financing is part of the structure. Cash expenses associated with operating and owning the investment property, including income and capital gains taxes. Capital expenditures for redevelopment or refurbishment of

the property during the holding period. Expenses associated with the disposal of the property

(selling costs).

Cash inflows that should be included in the DCF model are: Periodic income or rents collected from the investment

property. Expected proceeds from the disposal of the property at the

end of the investment holding period.

Exit valueThe exit value represents the price that the investor expects to receive for the property at the end of the holding period. This expected value should take into account the anticipated physical condition of the property, rental growth, leasing terms and remaining tenure on the exit date, and movements in interest rates and property yields.

Typically, exit values are calculated by applying an ARY to the expected market rent at the end of the holding period. All else equal, the higher the terminal cap rate used, the lower the exit value and vice versa. Historical evidence indicates that terminal cap rates have varied dramatically from 3 percent to 12 percent. A typical rule of thumb would be 7 percent to 10 percent, with a higher cap rate used for properties with a riskier profile. Refer to Example 1 above for a simplified example of the calculation of the exit value at the end of the holding period.

Discount rateThe DCF method of valuing an asset is based on the concept of the time value of money. In other words, $1 one year from now is worth less than $1 today because of inflation. The discount rate used in a DCF model serves to bring all future explicitly forecasted cash flows and the exit value back to a value at the same point in time – the valuation date. Additionally, since the cash flows generated by an investment property (and most assets) carries a level of risk, the

discount rate should be appropriate to compensate the investor for the risk taken by investing in the property.A common method of determining the discount rate to use when valuing an asset is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The CAPM, however, is based on a few underlying assumptions that may not apply to real estate valuation, including:

An efficient market environment. The fact that market risk is rewarded in the form of higher

returns, but specific risk is not rewarded because it can be diversified away.

Because no two properties are exactly the same and real estate is not traded on an organised market with regularity (just to name two of many reasons), property markets are not considered efficient. Empirical evidence on the performance of property assets indicates a huge variation in the relationship between risk and return in a way that would not be predicted by the CAPM. So, for real estate it may be concluded that specific risks matter and should be taken into account in the discount rate. Therefore, the desired rate of return (discount rate) can be calculated as follows:

the risk-free rate + a market risk premium + a specific-risk premium

The risk-free rate is usually defined as a medium-term government bond, preferably with a time to maturity that corresponds to the holding period of the property being valued. The market risk premium and specific investment risk premium are a little more challenging to define. In general, the market risk premium is associated with structural change risks for the overall property market. Specific investment risks are based on the specific characteristics of the property being valued. The following factors could be taken into account when determining the level of each premium:

•Market premium:–The level of liquidity expected in the market at the time of final sale of the property–Failure to meet rental growth and market yield expectations–The risk of location, economic, physical and functional structural changes related to the property market–Legislative risks

•Specific-investment risks:–Tenant or operational default–Costs of property ownership and management–Changes in lease terms at lease renewal dates

Some of these risks can be incorporated in the cash-flow forecasts for a specific property and/or through scenario analysis where a range of discount rates is used to determine multiple valuation outcomes.

Using the discount rate equation and the discussion on determining the inputs, we can calculate an example discount rate as follows:

Risk-free rate 1.0%Market risk premium 6.3%1

Specific-investment risk premium 4.0%2

Calculated discount rate 11.3%

In the end, investment value can be defined as ‘the value of property to a particular owner, investor, or class of investors for identified investment or operational objectives.’3 As such, alternative approaches for determining the discount rate applied to cash flows in a model designed to calculate investment value include:

A single, standardised discount rate for all property investments.

Discount rates that vary by property class (for example, shopping mall, office, restaurant and gas station).

A hurdle rate based on minimum returns needed from an investment to adequately support total portfolio returns. These rates, typically used in private real estate investing, could be 20 percent, 30 percent or even 35 percent.

1 Ibbotson Associates’s Commercial Real Estate: The Role of Global Listed Real Estate Equities in a Strategic Asset Allocation 2006 reports expected future returns on commercial real estate of 11.3 percent less current risk-free rate (1 percent) and specific investment risk (4 percent). Roughly corresponds to long-run equity risk premium estimates, supported by empirical evidence indicating a high correlation between US stocks and US commercial real estate returns in recent years.2 Assumes current industry rule of thumb for medium-or normal-risk small commercial property of 4 percent.3 IVSC, 2007.

Building the cash flow forecast (refer to Table 16.2)

The first step in building the cash-flow forecast is to spread the quarterly rental payments out over the investment holding period using the current annual rents, expiry dates and rent review dates shown in Table 16.1. For example, the first floor generates a rental income of $30,000 per quarter through December 2012 (annual rent of $120,000 divided by four quarters). After the rent review date for the first floor on December 2012, we assume the rental income will increase to a rent-inflation adjusted level of $37,870 ($150,000/4 × 1.01) per quarter until expiry. The first floor lease contract expires one year after the end of our investment holding period in December 2017, so vacancy and

refurbishment costs do not need to be taken into account until the calculation of the exit value.

Table 16.1: Assumptions to build a DCF model for a commercial real estate investment

Current assumptions Assumptions at lease exp

Total sqft

Annual Rent ($)

ERV* ($)

Rent Review

Expiry

Vacancy (in months)

Rent free months)

Carrying(in costs sqft ($)

1st

floor1,000 120,000 150,

000Dec

2012Dec

201712 6 120

2nd

floor2,000 240,000 300,

000Sep

201412 6 120

3rd – 9th

floor

1,400 1,680,000 –

2,100,000

100,000

Dec 2014

Dec 2017

12 6 120

10th

floor1,500 180,000 225,

000Dec

2015Dec

202012 3 120

* ERV is the estimated rental value and is an annual forecast of rent after expiry.

Note that all future cash flows, other than currently contracted rental rates, need to be adjusted for inflation by multiplying the cash flow by either the rent or the expense growth index. The index is set at 1 at the beginning of the investment holding

period and is calculated by multiplying (1 plus the expected quarterly growth rate of either rent or expenses) by the previous period index level.

The second floor lease contract expires at the beginning of September 2012. Therefore, cash-flow forecasts during our investment holding period will be based on current rental rates before the expiry date; refurbishment costs, carrying costs and taxes, and a leasing fee during the expected vacancy period; and the expected rental value forecast after the rent-free period. All of the costs post-lease expiry and the subsequent expected market rents should be adjusted for price inflation by multiplying those numbers by the appropriate indexed growth number (either the rent or expense growth index).

Let us demonstrate the calculation of each of these cash flows. Current rental rates are $60,000 per quarter ($240,000/ 4). Refurbishment costs will be incurred at the beginning of the first quarter after lease expiry, September 2012, for the second floor. From Table 16.1, we see that refurbishment costs are estimated at $500 per square foot for the 2,000 square foot space, for a total of $1 million. The total refurbishment costs must then be multiplied by the cost-inflation index as of September 2012 (1.015), yielding an inflation-adjusted level of $1.015 million.

Carrying costs and real estate taxes need to be charged for each period that the space is expected to be vacant. These costs are calculated by multiplying the cost per square foot by the square footage of the space. The totals in each period are then adjusted by that period’s cost-inflation index, generally

implying rising costs over the vacancy period. The final cost to include is a charge to re-lease the space. We have added a charge of 10 percent of the annual expected rental value (ERV) in the first period following the vacancy period.

The last cash-flow stream that we need to explicitly include in our model during the investment holding period is the rent-inflation adjusted ERV. Table 16.1 shows an annual ERV for the second floor of $300,000. Multiplying the quarterly ERV of $75,000 by the rent-inflation index of 1.061 in the first period of the new lease (March 2014), we calculate quarterly market rent of $79,500.

The cash flow streams over the investment holding period for the third to ninth floors can be calculated similar to those of the second floor, with current rental rates shown quarterly before lease expiry, price-inflation adjusted refurbishment and other costs included during the vacancy period, and price-inflation adjusted estimated rental values beginning after the rent-free period.

The final cash flow forecasts that need to be made are for the tenth floor. The data in Table 1 indicates that the tenth floor comes up for rent review in December 2015 and expires in December 2020. As with the first floor, refurbishments, carrying costs, taxes and the leasing fee do not need to be calculated during the investment holding period, but will be considered as part of the exit value. Quarterly rental income of $45,000 will be included through September 2015, with the step up to the rent-inflation adjusted ERV of $63,283 ($56,250 × 1.125) occurring at the beginning of December

2015 corresponding with the rent review.

Estimating the exit value (refer to Table 16.3)

The next step in the process of building our DCF model is to estimate the exit value. The exit value is made up of three parts, all of which are discounted back to the same date - the last day of the investment holding period - using an estimated capitalisation (cap) rate. The three parts are:

1.The value of the remaining rental payments as per the contracts in place at the end of the holding period. We will call these payments the ‘passing rent’.

2.The value of any refurbishments, vacancy carrying costs, real estate taxes and leasing fees needed to bring the state of the property back to a long-run equilibrium.

3.The value of all future expected market rents after the final refurbishment and carrying period. This value is typically calculated by dividing the final rent-inflation-adjusted ERV by a capitalisation rate that takes into account the risk profile of the investment at exit date and anticipated market conditions.

For the purpose of our example, we assume that a cap rate of 7.5 percent is appropriate for calculating the various components of the exit value.

The exit value model shown in Table 16.3 is built out in an explicit manner through one period after the last lease expiry date shown in Table 16.1. Building the model out through

April 2021 will make it easier to demonstrate how the streams of cash flows after the end of the holding period play into our overall valuation.

The lease on the first floor expires December 2017. Since the investment holding period ends December 1, 2016, there is one year (four quarters) left on the first floor lease at the forecasted passing rent level ($39,870/quarter). At expiry, we Need to calculate refurbishment costs, vacancy carrying costs, real estate taxes and a leasing fee to bring the state of the property back up to long-run market equilibrium. The remaining value at the end of the vacancy period can then be calculated by dividing the ERV by the cap rate ($179,083 divided by 7.5 percent). The ERV at this point is the passing rent of $151,478 multiplied by the rent growth index of 1.194 at the end of the vacancy period, December 2018.

Therefore, the exit value attributed to cash flows generated by the first floor can be calculated as follows:

1.The value of the remaining rental payments (discounted back to December 1, 2016 at a cap rate of 7.5 percent) of $147,500.

2.The value of all costs incurred to bring the state of the property back to long-run equilibrium (also discounted back to December 1, 2016 at 7.5 percent) of $1,874,300.

3.The value of all future expected market rents after the vacancy period (discounted back to December 1, 2016 at 7.5 percent) of $2,221,200.

These three components sum to a single exit value attributed to the first floor of $2,368,600.

The lease on the second floor expired September 2012. As such, we included costs for refurbishment and vacancy in our explicit cash-flow forecasts during the investment holding period. To estimate the exit value attributable to the second floor, we only need to calculate the value the passing rents after the exit date and the value of the reversionary ERV thereafter. Hence, the exit value attributed to cash flows generated by the second floor can be calculated as follows:

1.The value of the remaining rental payments (discounted back to December 1, 2016 at a cap rate of 7.5 percent) of $1,233,200.

2.The value of the reversionary ERV (discounted back to December 1, 2016 at 7.5 percent) of $3,624,000.

These components sum to a single exit value attributed to the second floor of $4,857,200.

Following the steps above for the third to ninth floors and the tenth floor results in exit values for those spaces of $33,908,200 and $3,893,100, respectively.

The final step in calculating the total exit value as of the exit date is to deduct the purchaser’s costs and a charge for sales costs. In our example, the total net proceeds at exit date of $38,993,700 (refer to Table 16.3 for this calculation).

Pulling the investment value together (refer to the bottom of Table 16.2)

Once we have calculated the total forecasted cash flows over the investment holding period (total current property rents, refurbishment and vacancy costs, re-leasing fees and net proceeds at exit), we can estimate the investment value of the property by discounting these cash flows back to the investment date using a discount rate that reflects the time value of money and the risk of the investment and summing these cash flows. In our example, we have discounted the cash flows at three different rates, resulting in a range of potential valuations. The rates used were 10 percent, 15 percent and 20 percent. The higher the discount rate used, the lower the resulting investment value.

Our model indicates that the example property has an investment value of:

•$24,602,200 using a discount rate of 10%.

•$19,959,500 using a discount rate of 15%.

•$16,395,400 using a discount rate of 20%.

Table 16.2: Building the cash-flow forecast

Table 16.3: Estimating the exit value

Sensitivity to assumptions

The valuation process and the resulting bottom-line value are highly sensitive to the assumptions used in the model. Since many investment decisions are ultimately made based on the results of valuation models, care should be taken to use realistic, well-reasoned assumptions in the process. Using a range of assumptions for certain key variables may be a good way to see how sensitive the underlying value estimate is to the modeller’s choices.

The following is a list of several assumptions that affect the bottom-line valuation and a brief discussion of how they affect value in the model.

Changes in the size of the property

Adding a level to the property or adding square footage to one of the existing floors will change the size of the property being valued. All else equal, increasing square footage should have a direct impact on cash flows. Costs will probably be incurred to pay for the initial increase in size, carrying costs and taxes may increase, and rental income on the additional space should increase. The net effect in the longer run should be a higher valuation.

Vacancy rates

Higher vacancy rates or longer periods of vacancy built into the

model will serve to increase costs and reduce rental income at the same time, lowering the resulting valuation. Vacancy rates and lease renewal probabilities can both be addressed in a valuation model through the use of scenario analysis. Scenario analysis would involve:

1. Calculating estimated cash flows under various scenarios by using different vacancy and renewal assumptions (typically three to five scenarios).

2. Applying probabilities to each scenario, where the sum of the probabilities equals 100 percent.

3. Summing the probability-weighted scenarios to arrive at a single estimate of value.

Rental and cost growth rates

Rental and cost growth rates are used to calculate the price-inflation indices that affect future cash flows. Higher growth rates have a larger effect on expected future cash flow. Since rental cash flows are dictated by contracts and are typically flat during the contract period, cash inflows tend to change less frequently than the costs incurred.

The need for and cost estimates of refurbishment

The cost of refurbishment can be the largest single cash outflow in the model. Lower refurbishment costs, whether due to longer property life, use of sustainable materials or lower cost estimates, will increase the underlying valuation.

Changes in interest rates

The effects that interest rates have on a DCF model are varied. One of the most direct influences, however, is on the discount rate used to calculate the present value of all of the cashflow streams. Lower interest rates imply a lower discount rate. In turn, lower discount rates increase the property valuation.

Changes in lease terms

Changing the lease contract terms will have an impact on the valuation of a property in many different ways. Longer lease durations improve the visibility of rental income streams, thus reducing some of the property risk. However, lease contracts lock in the dollar amount of rent charged. If the contract locks in rental rates that are below market levels, the resulting valuation may suffer. A more direct impact on valuation can be seen with the inclusion of ‘rent-free’ periods in the model.

The longer the rent-free period, the less rent is collected and the lower the overall valuation.

The length of the estimated holding period

The length of Longer holding periods mean that more of the cash flows from the property will be explicitly the estimated forecasted, thus lessening the impact of the exit value on the overall valuation. However, the holding period further out the exit value, the less accurate the forecast of market rent and the

ARY.