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Government of Maharashtra Hydrology Project II
Water Resources Department IBRD Loan No: 4749-IN
Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir
Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins
in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)
Final Report
October 2013
Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir
Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River
Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)
Final Report
October 2013
DHI (India) Water &
Environment Pvt Ltd
3rd
Floor, NSIC
Bhawan, Okhla
Industrial Estate
New Delhi 11 00 20
India
Tel:+9111 47034500 +91 11 4703 4500
Fax:+911147034501 +91 11 4703 4501
[email protected] www.dhigroup.com
Client
Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology
Client’s representative
Superintending Engineer
Project
Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir
Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in
Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)
Project No
63800247
Authors
Dhananjay Pandit
Gregers Jorgensen
Anders Klinting
Finn Hansen
Date:
5 October 2013
Approved by
Guna Paudyal
01 Final Report (based on comments from Client & other
stakeholders on the Draft Final Report)
DJP GNP 05.10.13
Revision Description By Checked Approved Date
Key words
Real Time, Streamflow, Flood, Forecasting,
Reservoir Operation, Forecast Models, Hydrology,
Hydraulics, River Basin, Capacity Building
Classification
Open
Internal
Proprietary
Distribution No of copies
Client:
DHI:
PDF file
50
2 CDs
RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
ii Final Report
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
BSD Basin Simulation Division
CWC Central Water Commission
DA Data Assimilation
DAS Data Acquisition System
DEM Digital Elevation Model
DSS Decision Support System
FCL Flood Control Level (from rule curve)
FCS Full Climate Station
FMO Flood meteorological Office (of IMD)
FRL Full Reservoir Level
GIS Geographic Information System
GMRBA Godavari Marathwada River Basin Agency
GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite
GoI Government of India
GoM Government of Maharashtra
GPRS General Packet Radio Service
GSM Global System for Mobile Communications
HD Hydrodynamic
HIS Hydrological Information system
HP-II Hydrology Project Phase II
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
IMD Indian Meteorological Department
KRBA Konkan River Basin Agency
MERI Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute
MKRBA Maharashtra Krishna River Basin Agency
MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer
MoWR Ministry of Water Resources
MWL Maximum Water Level
NIH National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee
NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
NRSA National Remote Sensing Organisation
NWP Numerical Weather Prediction
QA Quality Assurance
Final Report iii
QAP Quality Assurance Plan
QC Quality Control
QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
RIMES Regional Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning System
RMC Regional Meteorological Centre (of IMD)
RMSE Root Mean Square Error
ROS Reservoir Operation System
RR Rainfall-Runoff
RS Remote Sensing
RTDAS Real Time Data Acquisition System
RTDSS Real Time Decision Support System
RTSF Real Time Streamflow Forecasting
SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar
SO Structure Operation
SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
TAMC Technical Assistance Management Consultancy (HP-II World Bank)
TKRBA Tapi Khandesh River Basin Agency
VRBA Vidarbha River Basin Agency
WALMI Water and Land Management Institute
WB World Bank
WRD Water Resources Department
RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
iv Final Report
Table of Contents
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................. ii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................. VII
1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES & ACHIEVEMENTS ................................... 1
1.1 Background .............................................................................................. 1
1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins .......................................................... 2
1.3 Project Objectives and Outputs ............................................................. 4
1.4 Project Achievements .............................................................................. 5
2 KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM ............................................................... 8
2.1 Features of RTSF&ROS ......................................................................... 8
2.2 Brief Description of KBS ........................................................................ 9
2.3 Hardware ................................................................................................. 9
2.4 Software .................................................................................................. 10
2.5 Database ................................................................................................. 11
2.6 Knowledge management ....................................................................... 14
3 THE RTSF&ROS MODELS ................................................................... 18
3.1 Modelling system ................................................................................... 18
3.2 Rainfall-runoff Model ........................................................................... 19
3.3 Hydrodynamic Model ........................................................................... 23
3.3.1 Model Development .................................................................................................. 23
3.3.2 Model Outputs ........................................................................................................... 27
Model ......................................................................................................................... 27
3.3.3 Calibration ................................................................................................................. 27
3.3.4 Model Applications .................................................................................................... 29
3.4 The Forecasting System ........................................................................ 34
3.4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 34
3.4.2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) ............................................................... 35
3.4.3 The Forecasting and Operation System ..................................................................... 36
3.4.4 Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 38
3.4.5 Rainfall forecast scenario ........................................................................................... 39
4 RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM .................................................. 40
4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 40
Final Report v
4.2 Short Term Optimization ..................................................................... 41
4.2.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 41
4.2.2 Example Applications ................................................................................................ 43
4.3 Long Term Optimization ...................................................................... 48
4.3.1 Optimization of reservoir operation for flood season ................................................ 48
4.3.2 Example applications ................................................................................................. 48
4.3.3 Ujjani Reservoir ......................................................................................................... 50
4.3.4 Pawana Reservoir ...................................................................................................... 51
4.4 Optimization of Reservoir Operation for Long-term Water
Management .................................................................................................. 52
4.5 Integrated Operation of Reservoirs .................................................... 55
4.6 Reservoir Operation Guidance System ............................................... 60
4.7 Scenario Management .......................................................................... 61
4.7.1 Reservoir operation scenarios .................................................................................... 61
5 COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM ................................................................................ 63
5.1 Flow/Flood Warning Reports and Dissemination .............................. 63
5.1.1 RTSF&ROS Website ................................................................................................. 63
5.1.2 Communication WEB Portal...................................................................................... 65
5.1.3 Flood Warning Reports/Messages ............................................................................. 68
6 CAPACITY BUILDING .......................................................................... 73
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 73
6.2 Trainings Conducted ............................................................................ 73
6.3 International Study Tours .................................................................... 74
6.3.1 Study tour to Europe .................................................................................................. 74
6.3.2 Study tour to USA ...................................................................................................... 76
6.3.3 International training (Proposed) ............................................................................... 79
6.4 Workshops ............................................................................................. 79
6.5 Strategy for Sustainability of RTSF&ROS ........................................ 81
6.5.1 Institutional Strengthening ......................................................................................... 81
6.5.2 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD ...................................................................... 81
6.5.3 Operational Control Room ......................................................................................... 83
7 ACTIVITIES FOR SUPPORT PERIOD ............................................... 84
7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 84
RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
vi Final Report
7.2 Support to be Provided ......................................................................... 84
7.3 Training Plan during the Support Period .......................................... 86
8 REFERENCES .......................................................................................... 88
DOCUMENTATION ........................................................................................ 91
APPENDIX A: LIST OF TRAININGS CONDUCTED ................................ 92
APPENDIX B: RESULTS OF RTSF&ROS USING REAL TIME DATA
ACQUISITION SYSTEM .................................................... 95
Final Report vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Project “Consultancy services for the implementation of real time streamflow
forecasting and reservoir operations for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra”
commenced with the opening of the project office in Pune on the auspicious day of
Ganesh Chaturthi on 17th
August 2011. DHI (India) Water and Environment are the
Consultants assigned by the Water Resources Department of Government of Maharashtra,
India. The assignment was scheduled to be completed in 18 months with an extended
technical support period of two years.
The main objective of the RTSF&ROS project is to equip the Water Resources Department
of Government of Maharashtra with a web-based real time streamflow monitoring and
forecasting system and reservoir operation system for flood management in the Krishna
and Bhima basins in Maharashtra.
The principal outputs in relation to the forecasting and operation guidance system are:
1. A hydrological Knowledge Base
2. A Forecasting System for reservoir inflows and floods along the river systems
3. A Reservoir Operation Guidance
4. A Web based interactive Communication System
5. A Capacity Building Programme
All outputs of the above main tasks have been delivered on time. While technical details
related to all the tasks and deliverables have been presented in earlier reports, this final
report contains a summary of project achievements. Capacity building activities, strategy
for sustainability of the developed system and a work plan for the two-year support period
are presented in the Report.
A Knowledge Base System (KBS) is developed for the Krishna and Bhima River basins,
which consists of a comprehensive database of historical hydrological data, links to real
time data with capability of updating as data becomes available. The KBS contains all
available data relating to GIS data, topographic data, satellite imageries showing
administrative/land use/land cover/cropped and irrigated areas, soils, climate, historical
hydro-meteorological data, water levels and flow, water resources including reservoirs,
facilities for the generation of daily crop water requirements. In addition to typical
RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
viii Final Report
database functions, KBS is capable of performing a variety of data analysis including
resampling and statistical analysis.
The Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS) is
built upon the MIKE11 modelling system which comprises the hydrological rainfall-runoff
model, the hydraulic river routing model based on a fully dynamic solution of the St.
Venant’s equations, the data assimilation process used in real time flow and flood
forecasting. The hydrodynamic model contains updated river cross sections from the recent
field surveys carried out in 2012. The streamflow and flood forecasting model has been
tested with historical events in hindcast mode capturing all types of average, dry and flood
events that occurred in the Krishna and Bhima basins in the recent past. In absence of real
time from RTDAS the system was tested and demonstrated with data from various
Government Websites in 2012. The RTSF&ROS has now been fully tested with real time
data from RTDAS during the monsoon (July-August) of 2013. The “live test” and
implementation of the RTSF&ROS during the monsoon season of 2013 has been
completed satisfactorily.
The RTSF&ROS is used for providing reservoir operation guidance for an integrated
operation of the reservoirs in the two basins. The reservoir operation is also aided by
including both short term optimization of reservoir operation during flood emergencies as
well as for long term operation. A comprehensive river basin simulation model is also
developed for the two basins based on the MIKEBASIN system. This simulation model
together with optimization of reservoir operation provides a basis of optimum releases for
irrigation, water supply and flood control and hydropower in the entire system.
The communication and information management system consists of three main
components: Flow/Flood Warning Reports and Dissemination, the RTSF&ROS Website
and the main communication Web Portal (Krishna Bhima Online). A variety of flow/flood
warning reports and messages are developed to be disseminated to concerned authority,
organisation and communities. Also a variety of dissemination mechanisms are developed.
A website of the RTSF&ROS project has been developed for wider dissemination of
information. The Krishna-Bhima Online system is the main Web based real time
interactive information and decision support portal developed as the front end user
interface of the RTSF&ROS.
Final Report ix
In order to build the capacity of WRD, especially the Basin Simulation Division, a variety
of trainings have been conducted. The BSD officers are capable of operating the
RTSF&ROS. Detailed training materials, user guides and scientific references of the
modelling software have been provided. Six sets of MIKE software along with technical
documentation and user manuals have been delivered to various WRD offices as stipulated
in the contract and as instructed by WRD. The capacity building activities, especially
training of WRD/BSD officers in modelling, has been a continuous process. A series of
trainings have been provided to WRD officials. Selected WRD officers are now able to use
the developed models. Hands-on-training will be continued during the 2-year support
period. The database and models and the forecasting system together with computer
hardware and software have been installed in the operational control room of the Basin
Simulation Division at 1st floor of Sinchan Bhawan, Pune. The control room is fully
functional and the network and servers are fully integrated with the RTDAS.
The RTSFA&ROS development and outputs of all the components were discussed in four
workshops well attended by WRD and other stakeholders. Suggestions and feedback from
workshop participants and review committee members have been incorporated. The Draft
Final Report was submitted to WRD in early January 20123 for comments and
suggestions. This Final report incorporates all comments received from WRD, Review
Committee members, TAMC and others. The Report was presented at the Fifth and Final
workshop held at YASHDA centre Pune on 3rd
October. The workshop was well attended
by WRD, officials from other states of HP-II, World Bank Task Team Leader and other
officials managing the HP-II project, review committee members and other stakeholders.
The achievements of the project were appreciated by all the participants and WRD and it
was agreed that the stipulated objectives were fulfilled and satisfactory outputs delivered.
The sustainability of the technology was discussed and was noted that WRD will be in a
position to sustain the RTSF&ROS with the involvement of trained and qualified staff to
maintain and update the system.
As stipulated in the TOR a work plan has been provided for the two-year support period.
The work plan includes an intensive input of experts during the 2013 monsoon, four
trainings and further support through the two-year period.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
Final Report 1
1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES & ACHIEVEMENTS
1.1 Background The geographical area of Maharashtra state is 308,000 km
2. Major river basins in
the state are the Krishna river with its major tributary as Bhima, Godavari, Tapi and
the West flowing rivers of Konkan strip (Figure 1.1). Maharashtra receives rainfall
from both south-west and north-east monsoon. The state has very highly variable
rainfall ranging from 6000 mm in upper catchments to 400 mm in shadow areas of
lower catchments. Majority of rainfall mainly occurs in a four months period
between June to September with the number of rainy days varying between 40 to
100. The state experiences flash floods particularly in Western Ghats including
Krishna and Upper Bhima basins. For instance, Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur
districts in Krishna Basin and Pune and Solapur districts in Bhima basin
experienced severe flood several times during recent decade.
Figure 1-1 River Basins of Maharashtra
The Water Resources Department (WRD) of Government of Maharashtra (GoM) is
entrusted with the surface water resources planning, development and management.
A large number of major, medium and minor water resources development projects
(reservoirs and weirs) have been constructed in Maharashtra. Though, the reservoirs
in Maharashtra are not specifically provided with flood cushion, they have
moderated flood peaks to considerable extent by proper reservoir operations. The
reservoirs are multipurpose including hydropower, irrigation, domestic and
industrial uses and are operated with rigid schedules as single entities based on the
historical hydro-meteorological data and experience gained. These methods are
often not adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially where
integrated operation of multiple reservoirs for flood management is contemplated.
In addition, manual data observation and transmission results in a considerable time
lag, between data observed in field and its communication to decision making level
which sometime leaves little time, for flood forecasts.
The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Government of India (GoI) has
initiated Hydrology Project Phase II (HP-II), which is a follow-on to the concluded
Hydrology Project-I (HP-I:1995-2003). During HP-I, the Hydrological Information
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
2 Final Report 2
System (HIS) was developed for the entire state of Maharashtra and the data is
monitored manually 1-2 times a day. Under HP-II project, real time decision
support system inflow forecasting in Bhakra Beas system and Decision Support
System (DSS) for water resources planning and management are being developed.
The Upper Bhima basin has been selected as a pilot basin for latter one i.e. DSS
(planning). In addition, Government of Maharashtra has proposed to upgrade the
existing HIS with real time data acquisition system (RTDAS) for Krishna and
Bhima basins. Simultaneously, it is proposed to develop a real time streamflow
forecasting (RTSF) and reservoir operation system (ROS) in Krishna and Bhima
river basins to manage the floods and operate reservoirs optimally for multiple uses.
It is envisaged that the system would facilitate reservoir operators to act on time
and prepare stakeholders for the floods. The forecast of river flow and mapping of
flood zone will help in taking the decisions such as evacuation of the likely
affecting areas well in advance. In addition, the reservoir operation system would
facilitate the optimization of the storages for ensuring flood cushion and improving
agricultural productivity.
1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins The Krishna River Basin, of which Bhīma is a major tributary, covers an area of
258,000 sq.km (nearly 8% of India) in three large states—Karnataka, Maharashtra,
Andhra Pradesh. Maharashtra covers 69,967 km2 of Bhima & Krishna basin area
(Figure 1.2). As Bhima joins Krishna only in Karnataka, these two rivers basins are
generally treated as separate basins. This part is one of the fasted economically
growing regions and hence there is an ever growing competition for water among
different sectors viz. agriculture, industries and domestic users. There are 46
reservoirs in Bhima & Krishna out of which 30 are Major Projects and 16 are
Medium Projects.
The river Krishna which is one of the major rivers of Maharashtra covering an area
of 21,114 km2 is 282 km long. Krishna originates from Mahabaleshwar in Satara
district and flows through Satara, Sangali and Kolhapur Districts. It mainly flows
from north to south. Three of its main tributaries namely, Koyna, Warana,
Panchaganga flow from west to east and the fourth main tributary Yerala flows
from east to west. There are 19 reservoirs in Krishna basin, out of which 10 are
major projects viz. Dhom, Kanher, Urmodi, Tarali, Koyna, Warna, Radhanagari,
Dudhganga, Tembhu Barrage and Satpewadi Barrage. The 9 medium projects are
Dhom Balkawadi, Mahu, Uttarmand, Morna(Gureghar), Wang, Kadvi, Kasari,
Kumbhi and Dhamni. Figure 1.3 shows locations of reservoirs in the Krishna Basin.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
Final Report 3
Figure 1-2 The Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra
The Bhima River rises from Bhimashankar near Karjat on the western side of the
Western Ghats known as Sahyadri hill ranges at an altitude of about 945 m above
the sea level. The Bhima River flows in the southeast direction for 745 km covering
the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka. The Bhima River drains an area of 48,853
km2 in Maharashtra. The length of Bhima in Maharashtra is 451 km and it joins
Krishna on the Karnataka – Andhra Pradesh boundary near near Kudlu in Raichur
District.
In the course of the journey it meets many small rivers. The major tributaries of this
river around Pune are Kundali, Ghod, Bhama, Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana.
The Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana flow through Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad
city. The major tributaries of Bhima in Solapur are Chandani, Kamini, Moshi, Bori,
Sina, Man, Bhogwati and Nira. The Bhima meets the Nira River in Narsinghpur in
Malshiras taluka in Solapur district. The last 298 km of its course is in Karnataka
where it merges with the Krishna River. The banks of the Bhima River are densely
populated and form a fertile agricultural land. The river also causes floods due to
heavy rainfall it receives during the monsoon.
Bhima basin has 27 reservoirs out of which 20 are major projects and 7 are medium
projects. The major projects are Pimpalgaon Joga, Manikdoh, Yedgaon, Wadaj,
Dimbe, Chaskaman, Bhama Askheda, Pawana, Mulshi, Temghar, Warasgaon,
Panshet, Khadakwasla, Ghod, Ujjani, Sina-Kolegaon, Gunjawani, Bhatghar, Vir
and Nira Deoghar. The medium projects are Chilewadi, Kalmodi, Andhra,
Wadiwale, Kasar Sai, Sina (Nimgaon) and Nazare.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
4 Final Report 4
Some areas of the Krishna and Bhima basins suffer from floods. Figure 1.3 shows
reaches of Krishna and Bhima and their tributaries which are flooded. The years
2005 and 2006 observed heavy floods in the basins. Due to heavy rains in the
catchment of Krishna, Warna and Panchganga rivers created flood havocs in
Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur districts in July 2005. Sangli city is one of the most
flood prone areas in the Krishna basin. Pandharpur city on Bhima basin is another
flood prone area. Some areas in Pune city gets flooded from the Mutha and Mula
rivers.
Figure 1-3 Flood Prone Reaches (in red) in Krishna and Bhima Basins
1.3 Project Objectives and Outputs The objective of this project is to equip the Water Resources Department of
Government of Maharashtra with a web-based real time streamflow monitoring and
forecasting system and reservoir operation system for flood management in the
Krishna and Bhima basins in Maharashtra.
The specific objective of the Project is to develop a Real Time Streamflow
Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS) for the Krishna and
Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra.
The principal outputs of the project are:
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
Final Report 5
(1) A Knowledge Base System comprising historical and real time hydro-
meteorological data, GIS data incorporated in a Knowledge Management
System for ease of access, display and maintenance of the knowledge
base.
(2) A Forecasting System for reservoirs and river systems including inflows
and floods levels efficiently utilising weather forecasts and real time data
from the RTDAS.
(3) A Reservoir Operation Guidance System.
(4) A web based interactive Communication System allowing access to the
Knowledge Base, and the Forecasting and Guidance Systems for WRD
offices and stakeholders.
(5) A comprehensive Capacity Building programme for WRD comprising
formal training courses, on-the-job training, workshops, study tours and
hotline support.
1.4 Project Achievements A summary of project tasks, works carried out to achieve the outputs and related
deliverables are presented in Table 1.1
Table 1.1 Summary of Project Tasks and Deliverables
Main task Works Carried Out and outputs Deliverables
Task 1
Review Current
Forecasting and
Operational
Capabilities
After reviewing the current
forecasting, reservoir operation,
warning dissemination and
emergency response capabilities in
the Krishna and Bhima Basins the
needs of WRD and stakeholders for
effective water resources and flood
management in Krishna and Bhima
Basins have been identified.
Sources of weather forecasts, and
flow forecasting and reservoir
operation tools have been
identified and assessed.
Reviewed all available hydro-
climatological data and data
management systems, the RTDAS
network, real time satellite data,
and identified critical gaps and
recommend strategies to fill these.
Options and scenarios for optimal
multiple reservoir operation have
Inception Report
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
6 Final Report 6
been defined.
Reviewed institutional capacity of
WRD, and recommended
improvements for human resource
development, and facilities for
effective functioning.
Task 2
Knowledge Base
Development
The functional specifications for
the WRD Krishna-Bhima
knowledge base have been
developed.
Designed and developed database
management system.
Developed knowledge base.
Developed the knowledge
management system.
Interim report,
Initial model demos
Knowledge Base System
Task 3
Real-Time
Streamflow /
Flood Forecasting
Model
The modelling system consisting of
hydrological and hydrodynamic
models based on MIKE11 was
established for the Krishna and
Bhima River Basins and calibrated
against historical and current data.
Model results were used to identify
critical reaches for forecasts.
The modelling system has been
integrated with weather forecasts
(QPF) and the RTDAS.
Data assimilation has been applied
to ensure the maximum
information is extracted from the
real time data to ensure the best
possible forecasts.
Flood maps have been prepared for
critical historical events, and tools
have been developed for flood
forecast mapping.
Interim Report
Model Development
Report
Final Report
Task 4
Reservoir
Operational
Guidance System
The simulation models have been
extended with optimisation for
water resources and flood
management.
Operational guidance system for
Interim Report
Reservoir Operation &
communication &
information management
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
Final Report 7
multiple, multi-purpose reservoir
operation have been established.
Report
Task 5
Communication
and Information
Management
Systems
A communication Strategy and
Protocol supporting information
channels and dissemination has
been developed.
Designed, prepared specifications
for the Operational Control Room,
and supported the development,
necessary equipment have been
procured.
The Web Portal has been
developed to provide access and
disseminate information from the
Knowledge Base and the RTSF-
ROS.
Reservoir Operation &
communication &
information management
Report
Task 6
Capacity Building
and
WRD staff was engaged in and
supported the development of the
Streamflow and Reservoir
Operation Guidance System.
Several trainings were conducted.
Facilitated Workshops organised
by WRD.
International study tours for senior
managers of WRD were organized.
Prepared operational user and
reference manuals, online context
dependent help, documented
demonstration cases, training
materials.
A plan for technical support, with
further training courses and hotline
support has been prepared.
A strategy for long term
sustainability and enhancement of
the developed system including an
institutional strengthening plan has
been developed.
Training Materials
Workshop reports
User guides
Final report
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
8 Final Report 8
2 KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM
2.1 Features of RTSF&ROS The specific objective of the Project is to develop a Real Time Streamflow
Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS) for the Krishna and
Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra. The System integrates the real time Data
Acquisition System (RTDAS) with data from external sources, meteorological
forecasts, flow forecast modelling, analysis and decision support tools in an IT
system designed for ease of use by operators.
The main features of the RTSF&ROS are:
Comprehensive database
Comprehensive facilities for integrated presentation of the dynamics
of the hydrology and water resources of the basin
A range of hydrological, river basin water resources and
hydrodynamic river models
Predictions of the future hydrologic state of the catchment and river
system
Reservoir Operation Guidance system
At the core of the RTSF&ROS, also called a Real Time Decision Support System
(RTDSS) are mathematical models which describe the state of the catchment,
reservoirs and main rivers, and predict future states for a range of scenarios relating
to natural events and human intervention. The models require data:
describing the physical features of the catchments, rivers, reservoirs
and other hydraulic structures
hydrologic data describing the state of the catchment and rivers –
historical data for model calibration
real time and forecast data for making forecasts of future catchment
states
water demand data for optimizing the operation of reservoirs
All data used for modelling purposes and output from model simulations are stored
and maintained in the database of the Knowledge Base System (KBS). The KBS
provides a large number of functionalities for working with data, comprising
database input and output tools, data visualisation and data processing (filtering,
gap filling, etc).
Modelling-wise the RTSF&ROS includes functionality for automatically extracting
and arranging the necessary data for the model simulations and subsequently for
importing the generated data to the database. This ensures that data (covering both
observations and model output) are readily available in the RTSF&ROS user
interface and that system management becomes easier compared to having data
stored in file system folders.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
Final Report 9
2.2 Brief Description of KBS The main output of Task 2 – Knowledge Base development is Knowledge Base
System (KBS), designed and installed with all historical hydro-meteorological data,
river flows and levels, irrigation data, available satellite images and other GIS data
collected and populated in the database. The GIS data include topographic data,
satellite imageries showing administrative/land use/land cover/cropped and
irrigated areas, soils. The KBS has also a facility of generation of daily crop water
requirements using data from real time full climate stations (FCS). Data from the
reservoirs have been collected and included in the database. The database system is
flexible to receive any additional data from other sources. Also the features include
update and incorporation new data. For the real time data, facilities and links have
been developed to import al RTDAS data. Real time data flow protocol has been
developed and tested, which ensures seamless flow of data from RTDAS to the
KBS. The knowledge base also has the capability of analysing historical hydro-
climatic time series data. Figure 2-1 shows overall contents of the KBS.
In addition to providing the input data for the mathematical models, the database
will also store the results from the models. The database will be used to store
historical hydrologic data on the basin and data collected through the RTDAS,
definitions of the various scenarios that WRD will utilise for short and long term
planning, and input that can be used to operate the dams and other controls.
Figure 2-1 Over all Contents of the Knowledge Base System
2.3 Hardware The main hardware of the KBS is a Database Server - Dell(TM) PowerEdge(TM)
T710. It is a powerful machine with 24GB RAM and 1 TB Hard Drive with
additional Hard Drive for data backup. The Database Server hosts all the historical
as well as Real Time data received from the RTDAS as well as various sources and
model results. The KBS uses the data from Database server.
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A Web Server Dell(TM) PowerEdge(TM) T110 II has 4GB RAM and 500 GB
Hard Drive. The Web Server is mainly for dissemination modelling results,
warnings and any other information which WRD wants to publish.
Two high end machines are Lenovo Think Center DeskTop 1607G7Q with Intel
Core I3, 4GB RAM and 500 GB Hard Drive. The desktops are for running the
models as well as KBS. The results from the models are sent to Web Server for
publishing.
2.4 Software The database component of KBS is a relational database management system
(RDBMS) storing data in the form of related tables. Relational databases require
few assumptions about how data is related or how it will be extracted from the
database. As a result, the same database can be viewed in many different ways.
The RDBMS is prepared for handling all types of DSS data: GIS (spatial) data,
time series data and scenario/model data.
The Database components used in the system comprise:
PostgreSQL – a standard well-proven Enterprise-level
RDBMS:
PostGIS – an extension to PostgreSQL that makes it possible
to maintain and process GIS data
PostgreSQL is an object-relational database management system. It is released
under a Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD) style license and is thus free and
open source software. As with many other open source programs, PostgreSQL is
not controlled by any single company, but has a global community of developers
and companies to develop it. The development of PostgreSQL dates back to the
early 1980s.
The main features of PostgreSQL comprise:
Stored procedures can be written in high-level languages like
Python, C++ and Java
Indexes – based both on column values and expressions.
Partial indexes are also supported
Triggers can also be coded in high-level languages
Multi-version concurrency control which provides individual
user snapshots of the database
Updatable views
A wide variety of data types
User defined objects
Inheritance – tables can inherit characteristics from a parent
table. This can be used to implement table partitioning
The PostgreSQL database is described in more detail on the PostgreSQL home
page (http://www.postgresql.org). The input to PostgreSQL is SQL statements and
the output is result sets from the executed SQL statements.
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PostGIS is an open source software program that adds support for geographic
objects to the PostgreSQL object-relational database. PostGIS follows the Simple
Features for SQL specification from the Open Geospatial Consortium. The first
version of PostGIS was released in 2001. The main features of PostGIS comprise:
Geometry types for points, linestrings, polygons, multipoints,
multilinestrings, multipolygons and geometrycollections
Spatial predicates for determining the interactions of
geometries using the 3x3 Egenhofer matrix (provided by the
GEOS software library)
Spatial operators for determining geospatial measurements like
area, distance, length and perimeter
Spatial operators for determining geospatial set operations, like
union, difference, symmetric difference and buffers (provided
by GEOS)
R-tree-over-GiST (Generalised Search Tree) spatial indexes
for high speed spatial querying
Index selectivity support, to provide high performance query
plans for mixed spatial/non-spatial queries
Raster data in the form of ASCII grids and GeoTiffs as gridded rasters and geo-
referenced images (BMP, JPG, GIF, PNG).
2.5 Database The Krishna-Bhima Database is a tailored database system developed using the
above described software. The database stores a wide range of data. The data are
categorised according to the format in which they are stored. The link between the
data types, which essentially describes how the data are collected, and the data
categories is set out in Table 2.2.
Table 2.2 Data Categories
CATEGORY INPUT
FORMAT TYPES
Spatial Data Shapefile
Image
Grid
DEM
Remote Sensing
Meteorological
Forecasts
Temporal
Data
Time Series Ground Based Point
Data (historical)
Remote Sensing
RTDAS
Meteorological
Forecasts
Numerical
Models
Rainfall-Runoff
(NAM)
Model Parameter
Files
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Scenario
Definitions
Water Resources
(MIKE Basin)
Reservoir
Bathymetry
Hydrodynamics
(MIKE 11)
River Cross Sections
Structure Geometry
The shapefile format is the most common file format for storing spatial related
information. The format is developed by Environmental System Research Institute
(ERSI) and is an open and well defined format supported by most providers of
spatial information. Some data types appear in both spatial and temporal data
categories, i.e. remote sensing and meteorological forecasts. Figure 2-2 shows the
folder structure of GIS data.
Figure 2-2 Folder Structure of GIS Data
The time series data types are classified according to the frequency at which the
data change, and also reflect the means of data collection:
Real Time Data – comprise the data from RTDAS, WRD
sources for Rainfall and Reservoir Levels, and Rainfall
Forecast Sources.
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Historical Time Series Data – comprise point based
measurements of meteorological and hydrometric data made at
variable intervals.
Other Modelling Data – comprise surveys updated annually
or every few years, such as river cross sections and reservoir
bathymetry. Water level-discharge rating curves are also
included in this category. Rating curves for gates and power
stations are included in this category. This also covers the
daily crop water requirement data, generated in KBS.
A comprehensive range of high quality ground based point measured data
describing the state of the basin and the rivers and reservoirs will become available
in real time with implementation of the Real Time Data Acquisition System
(RTDAS). The real time network includes rainfall, climatic, reservoir water level
and discharge data. Although the commissioning of RTDAS has been delayed, a
data transfer protocol has been developed and tested. Real time data from the
RTDAS will be stored in the database in a similar folder structure as the historical
data. All data quality check will take place in the RTDAS. When data becomes
available in RTDAS it will be automatically transferred and stored in the RTDSS
database. A status message will be parsed for each station every time a new set of
measurements is received from the RTDAS.
Historical time series data have been imported to the database and organized in the
folder structure shown in Figure 2-3.
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Figure 2-3 Historical Time Series
2.6 Knowledge management The Time series manager of the KBS provides management and analysis
functionalities for storing, querying, importing, exporting and quality checking. In
addition, the manager offers a suite of tools for visualising, statistical analysis and
processing one or more time series. It may also be used to view data prior to model
simulations and to analyse and visualise model simulation outputs. Typical uses of
the time series manager are listed in Table 2.3.
Table 2.3 Examples of the time series manager
Task Principal activities
Create Time Series A new time series can be created in the database by: directly
creating a series using the tool, importing a time series from
a variety of sources including RTDAS.
Edit Time Series An existing time series can be edited for all its components
(time, value)
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Export Time Series A time series may be exported to Excel, a modelling system
or an external file to a prescribed format.
Filter Time Series This function is very useful for large databases. Defining a
search criteria for looking-up time series in the database,
such as name, type data, scenarios etc.
Import Time Series Importing Time series data from Excel, etc.
Inspect Time Series Looking at the time series attributes and meta data
Visualize Time
Series
Activities include display time series data in tabular or
graphical forms, adding time series to an existing series or
chart, customizing the chart or table
Using/Processing
Time Series
This functionality is the most useful in data processing,
quality checking, gap analysis, resampling, statistical
analysis, etc.
In order to illustrate the time series analysis capabilities of the database, rainfall
data form Mahabaleshwar and discharge data from Karad G-D station were
selected. Data gaps are clearly indicated.
Figures 2-4 to 2-6 show the performed analyses. The analyses include re-sampling,
duration curve and statistical analysis. Further details of the KBS are presented in
the Knowledge Base System Documentation (June 2012).
Figure 2-4 The Daily Rainfall at Mahabaleshwar (top graph) has been re-
sampled into monthly (middle graph) and yearly (bottom graph).
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Figure 2-5 Discharge data at Karad G-D Station (top graph) has been used for
duration analysis (middle graph) and statistical analysis (seasonal annual
maximum)
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Figure 2-6 Cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of discharge at
Karad G-D Station
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3 THE RTSF&ROS MODELS
3.1 Modelling system The modelling system developed in the project consists of:
A hydrological model (Rainfall-Runoff Model) for generating runoff from
a number of catchments schematized in the two basins.
A Hydrodynamic Model for routing flows through the river and reservoir
system to compute flows, water levels and flood maps.
A real time flood forecast module for computing streamflow and flood
forecast for period of 3 days from the time of forecast.
An user interface integrating the above models for operational forecasts
and for providing reservoir operation guidance, scenarios management and
flood warning and dissemination.
A river basin water resources simulation model for water allocation
including optimizing water use and reservoir operation.
The MIKE software system, developed by DHI, based primarily on the need for
advanced data assimilation for optimal flood forecasting, options for reservoir
operation, has been adopted for this project. This package fulfils the entire features
and functionality required for the Krishna-Bhima RTSF & ROS. Figure 3-1 shows
a modular structure of the MIKE11 modelling system.
Figure 3-1 Modular Structure of MIKE 11
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3.2 Rainfall-runoff Model To simulate the spatial variation in the lateral inflow to the river system, the two
basins have been subdivided into 122 sub-catchments as shown in Figure 3-2. The
sub-catchment delineation is to a large degree been based on gauging station
location to make it possible to calibrate the model at as many locations as possible.
Further sub-catchments have been defined at locations where important tributaries
join the main rivers and where spatial variation in precipitation or terrain indicate
the need for a subdivision. Further details of the model are presented in the Interim
report (March 2012) and the Model Development Report (September 2012).
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Figure 3-2 Sub-Catchment Delineation of Krishna and Bhima River Basins
(Showing rainfall stations, evaporation stations, reservoirs and G-D stations)
The hydrological model has been calibrated to obtain the best possible model
performance in terms of its ability to replicate the historical observed hydrographs
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on the basis of the historical input. If the model is able to simulate the historical
hydrographs well it will also perform well in future simulations. The final model
parameters were chosen so the best compromise was achieved between three
criteria: matching the peaks, matching the cumulative water balance (Wbl) curve
and reaching as high as possible the coefficient of determination (R2). The water
balance error (Wbl) is attempted to be as low as possible. The model has been
calibrated on all the available discharge gauging stations and reservoir inflow data.
The quality of model calibration depends on density, frequency and quality of input
data. In order to illustrate a good NAM calibration, the case of Koyna catchment is
presented in Figure 3-4, which shows an excellent calibration of the NAM
rainfall-runoff model for the years 2005 to 2006. Figure 3-5 shows a calibration for
Bhima_R2 Catchment.
In all cases, the opportunity for a much improved calibration will arise with the
availability of the higher frequency and higher density observations from the
RTDAS. In addition, the advanced data assimilation in the MIKE 11 software,
compensates for any deficiencies in the weather forecast and real time data, and in
the model setup, in relation to the actual current catchment response.
It can be concluded that the model calibration is satisfactory.
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Figure 3-3 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Discharges for Koyna
Catchment (R2=0.95, Wbl=0.00% (Obs=5660mm/y, Sim=5660mm/y))
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Figure 3-4 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Discharges for Catchment
Bhima_R2 (R2=0.80, Wbl=-1.2% (Obs=1886mm/y, Sim=1863mm/y))
3.3 Hydrodynamic Model
3.3.1 Model Development
The Hydrodynamic River Model takes the rainfall-runoff from the NAM, and
carries out a continuous routing of the flows and flood waves through the main
rivers and reservoirs of the basin. The model outputs discharges and water levels
throughout, for application to short term Flood Forecasting and Optimisation.
The hydrodynamic river model for short term flood forecasting is established for
the two basins combined. Figure 3-5 shows the river network with information on
the river cross sections used from different sources, including the recent river
survey programme of WRD (2012). A total of 1,550 cross sections are applied in
the model. In order to produce flood inundation maps accurate flood plain transects
and a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) is required. Since the DEM of
a reasonable resolution is not available for the Krishna and Bhima Basin, flood
plain levels obtained from the recent surveys have been used. The model describes
the propagation of flood waves through the river and reservoir system. The same
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model, incorporating data assimilation at all the real time discharge and water level
stations, is used in real time streamflow and flood forecasting. A detailed
description of how the model is developed is presented in the Interim Report
(March 2012) and the Model Development Report (September 2012). Figure 3-6
shows a MIKE11 schematic of the hydrodynamic model.
Figure 3-5 MIKE 11 Model Network showing cross section sources
Figure 3-6 MIKE11 Model Schematic
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Catchment runoffs from the NAM Rainfall-Runoff model are used as upstream
boundaries and intermediate inflows. The hydrodynamic model has an automatic
coupling to the rainfall-runoff model. The entire area of the two basins is
subdivided into 122 catchments. Each catchment is connected to the river model
either by a point connection in the case of a major tributary, or distributed in the
case of minor tributaries. Figure 3-7 shows the river network with NAM runoff
catchments.
Figure 3-7 River Network showing runoff catchments
A total of 43 reservoirs are included in the model as shown in Figure 3-7.
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Figure 3-8 Reservoirs in the MIKE11 Model
In the Krishna-Bhima model, reservoir spillway gates, irrigation outlets, hydro
power releases and leakage are incorporated as “control structures”. The functions
of the gated control structures can be simulated for different types of control
variables, such as water level, discharge, gate level etc.
The MIKE 11 Structure Operation (SO) module is being set up to describe the
present and future reservoir operation rules for the reservoirs within the Krishna
and Bhima river basins. The SO module is applied whenever the flows through
spillways and sluice gates are regulated by operation of movable gates or controlled
directly as in turbines and pumps. The operation rules are applied via a number of
logical statements combined with Control Strategies as per the existing operation
rule curves.
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3.3.2 Model Outputs
The basic outputs of the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model are discharges and water
levels in the main rivers and reservoirs. The model provides additional outputs like
flooded area at each cross section, and the total flooded area downstream. Outputs
can be obtained for any time steps. However, the frequency of the output has to be
compatible to the frequency of input data. Hydrographs at daily, hourly and 15
minutes may be produced once the RTDAS provides data at every 15 minutes.
3.3.3 Model Calibration
A detailed description of model calibration is given in the Model Development
Report (September 2012). Figures 3-9 to 3-12 show some sample calibration
results. It can be concluded that a satisfactory calibration of the Hydrodynamic
model has been achieved. When the model is used in real time flood forecasting,
then the data assimilation compensates for both amplitude and phase errors in
routing flood waves. In addition, more detailed data will enable fine tuning the
calibration and routing the runoff. This issue will be further addressed in the
RTSF&ROS testing and operation phase, when the RTDAS is producing useful and
reliable results.
Figure 3-9 Discharge Calibration at Narsinphur (Bhima – 313.116 km)- Blue
line: simulated, red line: observed)
26-7-2006 5-8-2006 15-8-2006 25-8-2006
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
[m 3̂/s] Narsinphur Discharge Time Series Discharge
Simulated
External TS 1
Observed
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Figure 3-10 Water level calibration at Narsingpur and Barur gauging stations -
(Blue line: simulated, red line: observed)
Figure 3-11 Water Level calibration of Panchganga at Ichalkaranji (black line:
simulated, blue line: observed)
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Figure 3-12 Discharge calibration of Mula-Mutha at Khamgaon (black line:
simulated, blue line: observed)
3.3.4 Model Applications
Identification of Critical River Reaches
The calibrated MIKE11 model has been used to simulate large historical floods as
well as with some probabilistic inflows to identify critical river reaches. Based on
information available from WRD as well from the historical model results, the alert
and warning values of discharge and water level are generated for further
validation. The model also generates flood map, which indicates the reaches which
have crossed the alert or danger levels for a particular event. This information is
integrated with the administrative boundaries as well as the inferences drawn from
satellite data. A Taluka level Flood Affected Map (Figure 3-13) has been prepared,
which shows that the Haveli Taluka (including Pune city) in Pune District,
Pandharpur Taluka (Including Pandharpur Town) in Solapur district, Miraj Taluka
(Including Sangli city) in Sangli district, Shirol and Gagan-Bawda in Kolhapur
disctrict are highly flood affected taluks. Maval and Daund Taluks in Pune district;
Karad in Satara district; Karvir and Harkalangale in Kolhapur district are
Moderately flood affected taluks. Shirur, Purandar, Baramati and Indapur in Pune
district; Madha, Mohol, Mangalvedhe, Solapur South and Akkalkot taluks in
Solapur district; Patan in Satara district; Shirala, Walwa and Palis taluks in Sangli
district; Shahunagari, Panhala and Radhanagari in Kolhapur district are Less Flood
affected taluks.
Once the RTDAS is in place, these maps can be refined further, if required during
the testing phase.
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Figure 3-13 Identification of critical river reaches with administrative boundaries
Figures 3-14 to 3-16 show longitudinal profiles of the river reaches with high flood
levels simulated for past flood event of 2006. Also inset are river cross –sections at
critical locations (chainages) illustrating bank overtopping at high floods. The
longitudinal profiles show clearly the critical river reaches where the high flood
level over tops the banks.
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Figure 3-14 L-S along Mula-Mutha showing bank overtopping
Figure 3-15 L-S along Bhima showing bank overtopping
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Figure 3-16 L-S along Krishna showing bank overtopping
Flood Mapping
Using the flood mapping facilities of MIKE11, a series of flood maps have been
generated in three flood prone areas: Pune, Sangli and Pandarpur. The recently
surveyed flood plain levels along with river cross sections have been used in the
flood mapping exercise.
Figures 3-17 shows simulated flood maps around Pune city during the floods of
August 2005. Figure 3-18 shows a simulated flood map for Pandarpur area in 2008.
The sample flood maps presented below show the capabilities of MIKE11 to
generate flood maps. However, it should be noted that the floods maps are
generated by the 1-dimensional model and are reasonably accurate when the flood
plain flooding is governed by river flooding. For a more accurate and detailed flood
risk mapping a 2-dimensional flood modelling and mapping tool is required.
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Figure 3-17 Model simulated flood map near Dattawadi in 2005
Figure 3-18 Pandarpur flood (2008)
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3.4 The Forecasting System
3.4.1 Introduction
The hydrological model maintains a quantitative memory of the water accumulated
in the catchments in the form of soil moisture, and ground water. This accumulated
water volume will be released as runoff to the main rivers during the succeeding
periods, simulated by the hydrological model. Converting the predicted
precipitation to runoff hydrographs, the model provides a quantitative response to
the predicted weather forecast.
The output from the model is fed into the MIKE 11 river model for forecasts.
Quantitative precipitation forecasts have large uncertainties for extended lead time
times, and the runoff becomes correspondingly uncertain when the lead time
exceeds a few days. Therefore, the flow/flood forecast in the RTSF&ROS refers to
short-term forecast up to three days in advance.
The short term forecasting model is similar to the hydrodynamic model. The
forecasting model uses rule operation instead of scheduled releases at the
reservoirs, and the data assimilation mode is activated.
The setup of the short term forecasting model implies that the model handles both
historical data and estimated future inflows and scheduled releases. The period
during which historical data are applied is termed the hindcast period, and the
period representing the future is termed the forecast period. Figure 3-19 illustrates
the concepts and steps of a short-term forecasting system.
Figure 3-19 Illustrations of a short-term forecasting system
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Another aspect of forecasting is Data Assimilation, which enables the model to
assimilate measured water levels and discharges into the model results during
hindcast. Corrections made in order to match simulated and measured results are
analysed and used to forecast the error that can be expected in the simulated results
for the near future. This error forecast increases the reliability of the forecast
results. Using data assimilation of discharges in the rivers (or water levels in
combination with stage:discharge relations) has two purposes. Firstly, assimilating
the data ensures that the correct amount of water is conveyed downstream during
the hindcast period. Secondly, the error forecast ensures that the recognised error
in the inflow is forecast into the near future, thereby improving the validity of the
inflow forecast. In this way the best inflow forecast to the reservoirs are achieved.
The required model inputs are:
Operation of reservoirs - rule operated meaning that in order to make
forecasts it is necessary to know which rules apply. For the hindcast
period measured discharge will be used. For the forecast period,
scheduled releases (or user defined releases) are used. A combined time
series will be supplied to the model by the system.
Information for data assimilation and error forecast - comprises
measured water levels and discharges that can improve the accuracy of
the forecasts. These will be provided in time series (Discharge
measurements at model boundaries will be assimilated in the hydrologic
model.)
Boundary inflows will be drawn from the database (NAM outputs
derived from weather forecasts and the RTDAS) and supplied to the
model as time series representing the inflow for both the hindcast and
forecast period.
3.4.2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)
Many organizations both inside and outside of India are generating rainfall
forecasts with some lead time and spatial resolution. For this basin area, rainfall
forecast could be available from several sources: Indian Meteorological Department
(IMD), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF), India,
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and Regional
Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) )
www.rimes.org. RIMES is an inter-governmental organisation based in Bangkok,
Thailand. A review was also made in the Inception report (December 2011).
Among them, in order to be able to use in a real time forecast with a lead time of 3
days and a good spatial resolution, rainfall forecast provided by RIMES and
NCRMWF has been selected.
RIMES in cooperation with NCMWRF produces rainfall, with 3 days lead time
with a spatial resolution of 9 km × 9 km grid and temporal resolution of 6 hours
using Numerical Weather (NWP) model.
Data is received as ASCII format for the study area with 9km X 9km grid as well as
a PDF. The RIMES Servers sends the 3-day forecasts automatically to a dedicated
E-mail address ([email protected]) every morning before 7 AM local time. A
procedure has been developed in RTFS&ROS to download the QPF automatically
from the RTSF gmail address and store in the model database for use in the forecast
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operation. At the same time, the QPF is exported to the KBS data server. Also
forecasts of rainfall and other weather parameters may be downloaded on a daily
basis from the IMD’s website (www.imd.gov.in) so that alternative scenarios of
rainfall forecasts may be compared by the operator. The IMD website also provides
a link to satellite data
3.4.3 The Forecasting and Operation System
The real time forecasting and operation system is based on calibrated rainfall-runoff
and hydrodynamic models. The system works as a stand-alone Windows
application, which does not require in-depth knowledge of complicated models and
GIS applications. However, based on a very user friendly interface developed for
this project, it is possible to have full control on the on-line forecasting. The system
once configured may also run automatically. The forecasting system has also the
provision to run different scenarios in offline mode so that comparisons can be
made with historical floods forecasted on hindcast mode. The offline mode can also
be used during an interactive operational decision making. The setup is an open
system in which modifications of key parameters such as forecast locations, time
steps, warning levels etc., can easily be incorporated by a trained operator.
Figure 3-20 shows the User Interface of the operational forecasting system. The
Interface can be used to manage the most common activities in the daily operation
of a forecasting system.
Figure 3-20 User Interface for the operational forecasting system
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The RTSF & ROS User Interface contains (referring to Figure 3-20):
A) Tools, selection boxes and status (left column)
B) An overview (as bitmap) of the model setup and stations included (upper
right)
C) Graphical and Tabular View (lower right)
Tools, selection boxes and status information
Following tools and settings are possible Selection of the Actual Model Setup in
Online or Offline mode
1) Selection of Model
2) Selection of Time of Forecast
3) Status line
4) Setup – configuration of Model setup in RTSF & ROS
5) RTSF & ROS batch Jobs
6) MIKE11 tools
7) View Flood Map
8) WEB page
9) Scenario management
10) Dissemination of Results
The RTSF & ROS Overview
The Overview shows, the river network, the flood status (warning level) for a
selected date at forecast locations on the river system (shown as coloured squares at
each forecasting location) and the accumulated catchment rainfall (shown as values
in grey squares) for a selected period in the modelled catchments.
Graphical and Tabular View
Graphs and tables can be selected from the map, when clicking on a station on a
map. It is possible to select between water level and discharge from the selection
box just above the graph to the left. Zoom facilities are available when right
clicking on the map or clicking on the button in the upper left corner. In the upper
right corner it is possible to select flood status for different time steps after Time of
Forecast.
The graphical and tabular view of catchment rainfall can be selected when clicking
on a number on the bitmap. The number represents the accumulated rainfall during
the period selected in the lower left corner of the graph. The accumulation period
represents hours before time of forecast (first selection box) up to hours after time
of forecast (second selection box). The tabular view shows the actual rainfall and
accumulated rainfall.
Similarly, reservoir status can be seen from the reservoir mode selected in the map.
The reservoir symbol indicates approximate percentage of fullness of a reservoir.
The graphical and tabular views show the reservoir level, inflow and outflow.
Online and Offline mode
RTSF & ROS can be applied in Online and Offline modes. When running RTSF &
ROS in Online mode, the Overviews are automatically updated as soon as a new
forecast is ready. Latest Time of Forecast is updated in (2), while the simulation
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status will appear in the Status box (3). When running in Offline mode it is possible
to load historical forecasts and test various scenarios.
Details of the RTSF&ROS are presented in the User Guide Version 2 (September
2012).
Detailed overview of results from the forecast simulation using MIKE VIEW, with
a predefined setup specified via the configuration editor. Figure 3-21 shows an
example, which include the river network, a longitudinal section along a selected
river, river cross section at a selected location and time series of discharge and
water level.
Figure 3-21 Detailed overview of MIKE11 results from a forecast simulation
3.4.4 Forecasts
Using the above described system, forecast of inflows to reservoir and then
corresponding outflows can be made. Figure 3-22 illustrates the forecast results.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 39
Figure 3-22 Example of inflow forecasts for 6,12,36 and 48 hours
3.4.5 Rainfall forecast scenario
The Rainfall Editor can be used to modify the rainfall to a catchment (or a group of
catchments) from the original simulation to test alternative rainfall events. The
rainfall time series is subdivided into user defined periods, where the rainfall editor
provides an overview of the accumulated rainfall within specified periods and has a
provision to change the values.
In Figure 3-23, periods for the last 24 hours up to time of forecast and the following
12, 24 and 48 hours into the forecasting period can be specified. The 122
catchments in the model setup have been grouped into 18 larger areas with similar
rainfall characteristics. The user can now change the original accumulated rainfall
with new estimations for each period – each value of the original catchment rainfall
time series will then be multiplied with the ratio between estimated and original
values.
Figure 3-23 Rainfall forecast editor
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
40 Final Report 40
4 RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM
4.1 Introduction The deliverable under Task 4 is a reservoir operation guidance system based on stream
flow forecasts as produced by the RTSF&ROS described above. The simulation models of
RTSF&ROS are integrated with a suite of optimization tools for optimum operation of the
reservoirs both for the short-term operation during the flood season and for round the year
optimal water allocation.
Three sets of optimization exercises have been carried out for developing optimum
reservoir operation guidance system. The first set is the short term optimization, which is
aimed at providing an improved reservoir operation guidance during floods when an inflow
forecast is available from the RTSF&ROS. The recommended short term rule curve is a
switch from the long term rule curve established by WRD for the major reservoirs in the
Krishna and Bhima River basins. It has been demonstrated that using the short term
optimization of reservoir operation a considerable reduction in flood release can be
achieved during the forecast period without compromising on the storage at the end of the
forecast period. In a way, the reservoir state follows the prescribed rule curve at the end of
the optimization/forecast period.
The second type of optimization model developed is for long term reservoir operation
guidance system. The optimization system is developed for round the year water allocation
for irrigation and water supply considering power development.
The third type of optimization model developed is seasonal operation of the reservoirs to
minimise downstream flooding while considering the need of keeping the reservoirs full at
the end of the rainy season. The reservoir operation guidance derived from the second and
third types of optimization models are incorporated in the overall basin simulation model
(MIKE BASIN) for the entire Krishna and Bhima basins in Maharashtra. Illustrative
applications have been developed for typical hydrological years (dry, average and flood
years) based on historical data.
Reservoir operation often involves a large number of stakeholders with different
objectives, such as domestic and industrial water use, irrigation, flood control, hydropower
generation, and navigation. Thus, optimisation of reservoir operation is a complex, multi-
purpose optimization problem where balanced solutions between the often conflicting
objectives are required. In addition, operation of multiple reservoirs or other water supply
sources should be considered jointly, hence adding additional complexity to the
optimization. Traditionally, fixed reservoir rule curves are used for guiding and managing
the reservoir operation. These curves typically specify reservoir releases according to the
current reservoir level, hydrological conditions, water demands and time of the year.
Established rule curves, however, are often not very efficient for balancing the demands
from the different water users. Moreover, reservoir operation often includes subjective
judgments by the operators. Thus, there is a potential for improving reservoir operating
policies and small improvements can lead to large benefits.
For optimization of reservoir systems, procedures based on coupling simulation models
with numerical search methods have been developed. Traditionally, the simulation-
optimization problem has been solved using mathematical programming techniques such
as linear or non-linear programming. Application of these methods, however, puts severe
restrictions on the formulation of the optimisation problem with respect to description of
water flow in the system, and definition of control variables to be optimised and associated
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 41
optimization objectives. Recently, procedures that directly couples simulation models with
heuristic optimization procedures such as evolutionary algorithms have been proposed
(Ngo et al., 2007). These methods have proven to be effective for optimisation of reservoir
systems (Pedersen, et al., 2007).
Details of the optimization systems are given in the Reservoir Operation System and
Communication Management Report (November 2012). Sample results are presented in
this Chapter.
4.2 Short Term Optimization
4.2.1 Methodology
The purpose of the short term optimization during floods is to assist in decision making in
situations where high inflows are forecasted to result in water levels above the guide curve
for the reservoir. The optimization will suggest release hydrographs that ensures that the
reservoir water level will comply with the guide curve at the end of the forecast period (3
days) and that the water level will be below the maximum allowed water level during the
whole forecast period. At the same time the release hydrographs will aim at minimizing
downstream peak flow. This purpose is believed to comply with WRD’s statements, as
described in the DAM Safety Manual, regarding rule curves quoted below:
“Guide curve is the target level planned to be achieved in a reservoir under
different probabilities of inflows and / or withdrawals during various periods. It
means that the reservoir level is to be maintained as per upper guide curve during
normal inflows. During the heavy floods, the normal reservoir operation schedule
should be switched over to the emergency flood moderation schedule. The
criterion for switching over is the occurrence of heavy to very heavy rainfall in
the catchments of the dam or the intimations of heavy to very heavy flows into the
reservoir. This switching over process should be well studied and implemented in
sub basin/basin existing in the state. During the emergency reservoir operation,
the reservoir levels are allowed to rise temporarily above upper guide curve but
below MWL for making flood absorption capacity to greater possible extent.”
In this Project, the MIKE 11 modelling system is adopted for simulating the flow in the
river system and reservoir operations. The structure operation module in MIKE 11 allows
implementation of complex control strategies, whereby reservoirs can be operated by
defining a number of different control strategies with various conditions. The use of
several control strategies makes it possible to simulate multi-purpose reservoirs, which
take into account a large number of objectives. The MIKE 11 model is combined with a
numerical optimization tool AutoCal (DHI, 2011) that is used for optimising different
control variables defined for the reservoir operation strategies. The optimisation tool
includes a general multi-objective optimization framework that searches for the set of non-
dominated or Pareto-optimal solutions according to the trade-offs between the various
objectives. The simulation-optimization procedure can be used in an off-line mode for
optimisation of reservoir operation rule curves using historical data. This operation can be
further improved in real-time by fine-tuning the reservoir releases using real-time and
forecast information. In this case, the MIKE 11 modelling and reservoir control system
uses weather forecasts to provide forecasts of reservoir inflows
This is done by combined use of a rainfall runoff model and a hydrodynamic model, both
running in real time forecast model, and a generic optimization tool. A two-step approach
has been implemented as illustrated in Error! Reference source not found.Figure 4-1.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
42 Final Report 42
he first step corresponds to a standard forecast during which measured water levels and
discharges are assimilated into the model results during the hind cast period. This ensures
that the model complies with the real life situation at the time of forecast (TOF). During
the forecast period scheduled releases from the reservoirs are applied. Thus, the model will
predict water levels in the reservoirs for a situation in which no measures beyond the
already planned are taken to avoid too high reservoir water level.
Figure 4-1 Figure illustrating the two-step approach adopted for the optimization
A second step can now be performed in case the water levels predicted in the first
step do not comply with the guide curve. Here the effect on applying additional
releases is evaluated against the optimization objectives which are:
Comply with the guide curve at the end of the forecast period
Never exceed the maximum allowed water level
Mitigate peak discharge downstream
Spill as little water as possible
How this works is illustrated in Figure 4-2. The optimizer AutoCal suggests
different spill hydrographs. The consequences of applying these hydrographs are
evaluated using MIKE11. Selected results from MIKE11 (reservoir water levels
and downstream peak discharges) are evaluated against the targets and AutoCal
will adjust the suggested hydrographs.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 43
Figure 4-2 Figure illustrating the two-step approach adopted for the optimization
4.2.2 Example Applications
The optimization models are first applied for the major reservoirs in which flood
control is a major concern. The optimization models are tested for the flood events
during the monsoon in 2006. Then, the entire MIKE11 hydrodynamic model of the
Krishna-Bhima basin is run in optimization mode to see the effect of an integrated
reservoir operation.
Tests have been made on the optimization of the Ujjani Reservoir for a period
where spilling occurred. The results are presented and discussed below.
In Figure 4-3 a comparison is made between optimized and measured water level at
Ujjani Reservoir during a spilling event in 2006. It is apparent that optimization
utilizing an early warning of high inflow enables a better management of the
reservoir water level. Not only is it possible to avoid excessive exceedance of the
guide curve, it has also been possible to maintain a higher water level at the end of
the period.
495.5
495.7
495.9
496.1
496.3
496.5
496.7
496.9
497.1
497.3
497.5
26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006
Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Ujjani reservoir
Optimized Water level
Guide Curve
Measured Water Level
Figure 4-3 Graph comparing optimized and measured water level with the guide
curve for the Ujjani Reservoir
When comparing the optimized and measured release during the test period (Figure
4-4), it is apparent that the amount spilled is considerably less than what happened
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
44 Final Report 44
during the event. This is also reflected in the downstream discharge at Pandharpur
(Figure 4-5). The peak discharge has been reduced from approximately 7,800 m3/s
to approximately 7,100 m3/s.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006
Comparison between optimized and measured release at Ujjani reservoir
Optimized Release
Measured Release
Figure 4-4 Graph showing a comparison between optimized and measured
release at Ujjani Reservoir during 2006
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006
Optimized and measured discharge at Pandharpur
Optimized Discharge
Measured Discharge
Figure 4-5 Comparison of optimized and measured release at Pandharpur
The optimization has also been tested for Koyna Reservoir. The optimized water
level is compared with measured water level in Figure 4-6. It is apparent that better
compliance with the guide curve can be achieved that when the forecasted inflow is
taken into account when deciding about spilling. Figure 4-7 shows a comparison
between the optimized and the measured releases. It is seen that the peak discharge
is lowered from approximately 2500 m3/s to approximately 1500 m
3/s.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 45
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
13/07/2006 28/07/2006 12/08/2006 27/08/2006
Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Koyna Reservoir
Optimized Water level
Guide Curve
Measured Water Level
Figure 4-6 Graph comparing optimized and measured water levels at Koyna
Reservoir
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
13/07/2006 28/07/2006 12/08/2006 27/08/2006
Optimized and measured discharge at Koyna Reservoir
Optimized Discharge
Measured Discharge
Figure 4-7 Graph comparing optimized and measured release from Koyna
Reservoir
For the Kadakwasla Complex, selected results are presented below. The water
levels for Panshet Reservoir, Temghar Reservoir and Warasgaon Reservoir are
depicted in Figure 4-8, Figure 4-9 and Figure 4-10, respectively. It is seen that the
optimization is able to maintain the water levels within acceptable limits. For
Temghar Reservoir it seems like the optimizer ensures that a larger amount of water
is stored and the end of the period. The optimized releases are compared with
measured releases in Figure 4-11, Figure 4-12 and Figure 4-13. For all three
reservoirs the optimization has lowered the peak discharges supporting the flood
mitigation purpose.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
46 Final Report 46
I
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
18/07/2006 02/08/2006 17/08/2006 01/09/2006
Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Panshet Reservoir
Optimized Water level
Guide Curve
Measured Water Level
Figure 4-8 Graph comparing optimized and measured water level at Panshet
Reservoir
695
695.5
696
696.5
697
697.5
698
698.5
699
699.5
700
18/07/2006 02/08/2006 17/08/2006 01/09/2006
Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Temghar Reservoir
Optimized Water level
Guide Curve
Measured Water Level
Figure 4-9 Graph comparing optimized and measured water level at Temghar
Reservoir
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
18/07/2006 02/08/2006 17/08/2006 01/09/2006
Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Warasgaon Reservoir
Optimized Water level
Guide Curve
Measured Water Level
Figure 4-10 Graph comparing optimized and measure water level at Warasgaon
Reservoir
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 47
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006
Comparison between optimized and measured release at Panshet Reservoir
Optimized Release
Measured Release
Figure 4-11 Graph comparing optimized and measured release from Panshet
Reservoir
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006
Optimized and measured discharge at Temghar Reservoir
Optimized Discharge
Measured Discharge
Figure 4-12 Graph comparing optimized and measured releases from Temghar
Reservoir
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006
Optimized and measured discharge at Warasgaon Reservoir
Optimized Discharge
Measured Discharge
Figure 4-13 Graph comparing optimized and measured release from Warasgaon
Reservoir
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
48 Final Report 48
4.3 Long Term Optimization
4.3.1 Optimization of reservoir operation for flood season
Though, the reservoirs in Maharashtra are multipurpose including hydropower,
irrigation, domestic and industrial uses, they are not operated specifically for flood
control due to lack of adequate provision of flood cushion. However, they have
moderated flood peaks to considerable extent by proper reservoir operations. The
schedules of reservoir operation are based on rule curves derived from historical
hydro-meteorological data and experience gained. These methods are often not
adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially for flood
management. Therefore, the objective function for deriving a season operation
guidance selected in this study is to minimize the maximum peak flood release over
the flood season. A set of constraints such as reservoir storage limits, daily water
balance, minimum downstream flow requirements, hydropower release
requirements etc. are applied to the optimization model.
4.3.2 Example applications
The flood year of 2006 has been selected for application of the optimization system
developed for operating the reservoirs during a flood season. It is also possible to
run the optimization from any time during the flood season to the end of the season,
using the current state of the system from observed data and assuming that the rest
of the season will follow a typical flood year, say 2006. In the future, if a higher
flood year occurs, then the optimization can be performed for that particular year.
The optimization results provided for various reservoirs below serve as a guideline
on how to operate a reservoir or the system of reservoir for a typical flood year. It
may be noted that the operational guidelines derived from optimization are only
slightly different from the prescribed rule curves. However, these guidance are of
indicative only because the operators cannot ensure that a particular year in hand
will be a flood year similar to 2006. If an optimization is carried out routinely from
the start of the monsoon, then the operation might improve as the season
progresses.
Khadakwasala complex
Figure 4-14 The Khadakwasala Complex
Figure 4-15 shows optimum releases as compared to historical releases during the
flood season of 2006. It can be seen that an optimized operation of the reservoir for
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 49
2006 would reduce the flood peak from 1,376 m3/s to 1,082 m
3/s on July 29 (Figure
4-16). It also shows that an optimization based release would avoid drastic changes
in the release pattern following the peak release on July.
Figure 4-15 Optimized Release from Khadakwasala system (for 2006 flood
season)
Figure 4-16 Detailed view of release pattern during 22 July to 11 August 2006
Figure 4-17 shows the optimized storage compared to the historic storage in the
Khadakwasala system for the flood season of 2006. It can be seen (from Figure 4-
18) that in order to reduce the peak release to an optimum level, the operation of the
reservoir has to deviate from the historical operation, which is derived from the rule
curve mainly during July 25 to August 8. As this is a temporary switch from the
long term rule curve to a flood operation guidance, it shows that the rule curve is a
followed during the remaining part of the season so that the reservoir is kept full at
the end of the season.
Results for other reservoirs are presented in the Reservoir Operation and
Communication Management Report (November 2012).
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Riv
er
Rele
ase (
m^
3/s
)
Day from July 1
Historical Release (m^3/s) Optimized Release (m^3/s)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Riv
er
Re
leas
e (
m^3
/s)
Historical release
Optimized Release
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
50 Final Report 50
Figure 4-17 Optimum Storage of Khadakwasala system for the flood season 2006
Figure 4-18 Detailed view of the Khadakwasala system storage during 25 July to
8 August 2006
4.3.3 Ujjani Reservoir
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91
Sto
rage
(MC
M)
Day from July 1
Historical Storage (MCM Optimal Storage (MCM)
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Sto
rage
(M
CM
)
Historical storage(MCM)
Optimum Storage(MCM)
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 51
Figure 4-19 Optimized Release from Ujjani Dam (2006 flood year)
Figure 3-6 shows optimum releases from Ujjani Dam as compared to historical
releases during the flood season of 2006. It can be seen that an optimized operation
of the reservoir for 2006 would reduce the flood peak by almost half thus reducing
flood damage downstream. It also shows that an optimization based release would
avoid drastic changes in the release pattern following the peak release on July.
Similarly, Figure 3-7 shows the corresponding storage resulting from the optimized
release. The storage comes back to the historical levels from 17th
August following
the rule curves.
Figure 4-20 Optimized Storage of Ujjani Reservoir (2006 flood season)
4.3.4 Pawana Reservoir
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Riv
er
Re
lae
se (
m^3
/s)
Historical Release (m^3/s) Optimized Release (m^3/s)
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
52 Final Report 52
Figure 4-21 Optimized release from Pawana Dam (2006 flood season)
Figure 3-8 shows optimum releases from Pawana Dam as compared to historical
releases during the flood season of 2006. It can be seen that an optimized operation
of the reservoir for 2006 would reduce the flood peak from 376 m3/s to 226 m
3/s,
thus reducing flood damage downstream. Figure 3-9 shows the corresponding
storage resulting from the optimized release. The storage comes back to the
historical levels from 25th
August following the rule curves.
Figure 4-22 Optimized Storage in Pawana Reservoir (2006 flood season)
4.4 Optimization of Reservoir Operation for Long-term Water
Management An optimization methodology has also been developed for optimized operations of
the reservoir system considering round the year water resources management. An
economic optimization to find out an optimum cropping pattern in a command is
developed first. Then reservoir water allocation is optimized to satisfy the water
requirement for the optimal cropping pattern keeping other water allocation as
constraints. Although the reservoirs are multipurpose, the competition is mainly
between irrigation and water supply (domestic and industrial). In almost all the
reservoirs considered, water released for hydropower goes for irrigation use. In
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92
Riv
er
Re
leas
e (
m^3
/s)
Day from July 1
Historical Release (m^3/s) Optimized Release (m^3/s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92
Sto
rage
(M
CM
Day from July 1
Historical Storage (MCM) Optimized Storage (MCM)
Max Storage at 275 MCM
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 53
Koyna dam, the release to the powerhouse below the dam goes for irrigation.
Releases to large hydropower plants on the west side flow out of the basin. In
principle, the decision between releases to water supply and irrigation is not taken
as a multi-objective problem. It is rather taken as a quota priority. Different types of
formulations have been considered to optimize the water allocation between
irrigation and water supply. A set of water supply factors are used for supplying
water to major urban areas in the basin. An iterative optimization-simulation
process is used to optimize the long-term water allocation from all the reservoirs in
the in the basin.
The optimization models have been applied for three typical years namely an
average year (2001), a dry year (2003) and a flood year (2006) from historical data
and long term simulations carried out using the MIKE BASIN model developed for
the entire Krishna-Bhima Basin. Table 4.1 lists the optimization scenarios are
presented. Detailed results, which provide a guidance to long-term reservoir
operation are provided in the Report “Reservoir Operation System and
Communication Management System (November 2012).” Some sample results for
selected reservoirs are presented in the following sections.
Table 4.1 Optimization Scenarios
Scenario
No.
Year Reservoir operation
optimization considering
Water supply target
constraints (supply
factor)
1 Dry Optimal cropping pattern 100 %
(no reduction)
2 80 %
3 70 %
4 Historical supplies 100 %
5 80 %
6 70 %
7 Flood Optimal cropping pattern 100 %
8 80 %
9 70 %
10 Historical supplies 100 %
11 80 %
12 70 %
13 Average Optimal cropping pattern 100 %
14 80 %
15 70 %
16 Historical supplies 100 %
17 80 %
18 70 %
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
54 Final Report 54
Figure 4-23 shows optimized irrigation releases form the Khadakwasala reservoir
sysetm (operation of Khadakwasala, Warasgaon, Panchet and Temgher) for a dry
year considering water supply factors of 100%, 80% and 70% respectively.
WS =100% D
WS=80% D
Figure 4-23 Optimal irrigation release from the Khadakwasala complex for
optimal cropping pattern (dry year: WS factors: 1 – 100%, 2- 80%, 3- 70%)
WS = 70%
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335
Re
leas
e M
CM
10 Day Intertval
Opt. Irrigation Supply
Hist. Irrigation Supply
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Re
leas
e M
CM
10 Day interval
Opt. Irrigation Supply
Hist. Irrigation Supply
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Re
leas
e M
CM
10 Day Interval
Opt. Irrigation Supply
Hist. Irrigation Supply
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 55
The optimized irrigation release is for satisfyting the irrigation requirement of an
optimum cropping pattern that will yield a maximum crop production benefit from
the command area. It can be seen that an optimum operation of the reservoirs
results into a much higher irrigation releases than compared with historical
irrigation releases from the same reservoir. The intergated oprimization-simulation
tool is incorporated in the river basin modelling system installed at BSD and the
Control room, so that WRD can use for making decisions in the future operational
planning of the reservoir system.
4.5 Integrated Operation of Reservoirs
The optimum operation systems developed for the major reservoirs are simulated in
the MIKE BASIN model for the entire basin. Figure 4-24 shows the MIKE BASIN
model developed in the two basins (Interim Report, March 2012). Figures 4-25 and
4-26 show the schematics of the integrated reservoir systems in the model.
Figure 4-24 The Krishna-Bhima MIKE BASIN Model
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
56 Final Report 56
Figure 4-25 Schematic of the Integrated Reservoir System of Bhima Basin
Figure 4-26 Schematic of the Integrated Reservoir System of Krishna Basin
The following three typical years are considered for simulation of integrated
operation:
(1) 2001-02 as an average year,
(2) 2003-04 as a dry year and
(3) 2006-07 as Flood (wet) year.
Two optimum irrigation release scenarios are used, which have been obtained from
optimisation results discussed in the previous sections.
(1) D1: Optimized irrigation release for satisfying the demand of optimum
cropping pattern
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 57
(2) D2: Optimized irrigation release based on Historical/Existing irrigation
schedules
The MIKE BASIN simulation results in Figure 4-27 and Figure 4-28 show that for
both the average year (2001-02) and dry year (2003-04), if the irrigation demands
have to be satisfied from the Pawana reservoir with minimising the irrigation
deficits, the reservoir will have to be depleted more compared to historical
operation which would result into larger irrigation deficits. For the Wet year
(2006-07), however, there is not much difference between the optimal releases and
historical releases as depicted in Figure 4-29.
Figure 4-27 Historical Water Level Comparison of Pawana Reservoir with Water
Levels after Optimized Releases (for Average Year 2001-02)
Figure 4-28 Historical Water Level Comparison of Pawana Reservoir with Water
Levels after Optimized Releases (for Dry Year 2003-04)
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)
Water Level D1 Water Level D2 Historical Water Level
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Wat
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Leve
l (m
)
Water Level D1 Water Level D2 Historical Level
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
58 Final Report 58
Figure 4-29 Historical Water Level Comparison of Pawana Reservoir with Water
Levels after Optimized Releases (for Wet Year 2006-07)
Figure 4-30 shows the flow situation in the entire basin with optimized releases for
irrigation while satisfying water supply and keeping the hydropower demands
intact, for the wet year 2006-07. This type outputs from a combined optimization-
simulation exercise will be quite useful for analysing the flow situation in the entire
basin any time during the operation of the system. It is also possible to view the
results animated for any given.
585
590
595
600
605
610
615
Wat
er
Leve
l (m
)
Water Level D1 Water Level D2 Historical Level
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 59
Figure 4-30 Simulation Result for Optimized Releases for the integrated Krishna-
Bhima Basin System, showing flows (m3/s) in river reaches
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
60 Final Report 60
4.6 Reservoir Operation Guidance System The reservoir guidance system is presented in the RTSF&ROS Model Development
Report (October 2012) whereas, updated features are incorporated in the Reservoir
Operation system and Communication Management System Report (November
2012). The system has been installed at the BSD and has been tested for reservoir
operational scenarios. Trial operation in real time is expected to be carried out
during the monsoon of 2013, when the real time data will be available from the
RTDAS being implemented by WRD.
The Reservoir Operation can be performed via the Reservoir Operation Module of
the RTSF&ROS User Interface (Figure 4-31).
Figure 4-31 User Interface for the operational forecasting system and reservoir
operation system
The tool is used to show the conditions for each reservoir included in the model
setup and it can also be used for scenario simulations. The page consists of a
Grahical View, as shown in Figure 4-32 (water level left axis and inflow & outflow
right axis), a Tabular View (timeseries of inflow, outflow and reservoir levels) and
a Reservoir Overview on the bottom of the page.
Figure 4-32 shows an example for the operation of the Warasgaon Reservoir. The
graph shows a 3 days period (1 day before Time of forecast, indicated with a grey
vertical line and the forecasting period of 2 days). From Figure 4-32 it appears that
the inflow (red line) is higher than outflow (green line) until ‘2006-07-30 03:00’, when
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
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the outflow exceeds the inflow. The water level (blue line) increases, therefore in
the first part of the simulation, while it decrease when the ouflow eceeds the inflow.
Figure 4-32 Example of Reservoir Operation Module (Warasgaon)
4.7 Scenario Management The scenario management tools allow the user to run the forecast model with
different data and compare the results from scenario simulations with the original
simulation. Simulation of scenarios is activated when running the operation system
in an offline mode. After finishing a scenario simulation, the scenario results can be
archived, which can be loaded later for further assessment. The scenario
management tools also include facilities to disseminate the scenarios to the WEB
Portal.
The Reservoir Operation Scenario manager can be used for operating reservoirs
with user defined releases, including those derived from optimization.
4.7.1 Reservoir operation scenarios
The reservoir operation module can be used to specify user defined releases from
the reservoirs to test alternative reservoir operations and releases of water from the
reservoirs.
As an example, a user defined release of 500 m3/s has been specified for a period of
12 hours for the Warasgaon reservoir as shown in Figure 3-33. To run this scenario
the changes made are saved and a new simulation is started with the user defined
release.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
62 Final Report 62
In Figure 4-33, the figure to the left shows the specification of user defined releases
(dark green bar), while the figure to the right shows the result of the scenario
simulation (light green curve, calculated spilling).
Figure 4-33 Example of reservoir operation scenario (Warasgaon)
After pressing the refresh button it is possible to inspect the effect of changes on the
downstream stations. Figure 4-34 shows a comparison of the water level in the
Khadakwasla reservoir (blue curve: original, black curve: with user defined
release).
Figure 4-34 Viewing results of reservoir operation scenarios
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5 COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION
MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
5.1 Flow/Flood Warning Reports and Dissemination A variety of flow/flood warning reports and messages are proposed to be
disseminated to concerned authority, organisation and communities. Also a variety
of dissemination mechanisms are developed.
5.1.1 RTSF&ROS Website
A website of the RTSF&ROS project has been developed (Figure 5-1). The
Website may be hosted in a commercial server or at the mail server provided at the
Operational Control Room. However, for efficiency of access, it is recommended
that Operational Control Room should have the facility of high speed internet
connection. The pages are divided into the following standard views:
Home: The Home Page shows the overall view and contents of the Website
About Us: The About Us Page provides information linked to WRD offices
and the Basin Simulation Division and the Operation Control Room.
RTSF&ROS Project: This Page provides a brief about the RTSF&ROS
Project, its objectives and outputs
Alerts and Warnings: This Page provides current warnings and alerts for
quick look, which are updated every day (or whenever decided by the
authority)
Contact Us: This Page presents the contact details of responsible officals of
WRD, BSD and the Operational Control Room
Feedback: This Page guides the users of the Website to share their views or
provide feedback to the information produced via their E-mail. The E-mail is
received to a dedicated E-mail address, which may be changed by WRD
during actual implementation.
The Contents of the Website may be viewed by browsing the following Pages:
The Knowledge Base Page: It provides a brief description of the
Krishna-Bhima knowledge Base. It also has a provision of remote
login for authorized user, which may be implemented by WRD later.
The Modelling System Page: This page provides a brief description
of the modeling tools used in the RTSF&ROS, with reference and
links to the provider of the modeling software.
The Krishna-Bhima Online Page: This is the key portal on which all
the on-line information is available for dissemination. The
information includes rainfall, discharge, water levels and reservoir
situation for current and for the forecast period, currently set as 72
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS
64 Final Report 64
hours. The On-line Page is designed as a standalone Web Portal,
which may be hosted in a separate server.
Reports and Maps Page: This Page provides access to all the reports and
maps, especially flood maps, which may be historical, current or forecasts
produced by the mode. The reports are uploaded by the administrator as
decided by WRD authority. The updated maps are also uploaded by the
administrator whenever desired by the authority.
Important links: This Page guides the user to Web links (Websites),
which are relevant to weather forecasting (national and international
resources centers), and other relevant Government sites.
Hidden to unauthorized users is a Page for the Web administrator or an authorized
official at the Operational Control Room. The features of Web administration are:
Admin Login Page: The administrator can login to the Website with an
authorized password. This allows the administrator to upload and update
Reports/Maps and Alerts/Warnings in the Website.
Admin forms for updates of Alerts & Warnings: These forms are
used by the administrator for day-to-day uploading and updating the
Alerts and Warnings. During a severe flood situation, the alerts and
warnings may be updated more frequently based on real time data
and/or the results of the flood forecasting model.
Figure 5-1 RTSF&ROS Website
Once the RTSF&ROS system is in trail operation from June 2013, the usefulness
of the Website may further be carried out by WRD and refinement, if any, may be
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
Final Report 65
done easily. Training has been given to BSD officers on the use and updating of
the Website, so that they are fully familiar with all the day-to-day updating
features.
5.1.2 Communication WEB Portal
All results from the forecast simulations are presented on a WEB Portal. The
WEB display of station status takes place via Google Maps, with all Google Map
facilities like zooming to street level and provision to show data on satellite
images, road maps and on terrain maps. From the Google Map it is possible to
watch station status at preselected time steps and to select a graphical view of a
selected time series clicking on the map. The WEB Page has provision for display
of four different data types: discharge, water level, precipitation and data from
reservoir (water levels, inflow and outflow)
The web portal will be a part of the overall information communication
management system. Two different sizes of WEB portals have been developed:
WEB Page for PC: The PC version (large screen) includes provision for viewing
all the four different data types described above. Figure 5-2 shows an example of
results presented on Google Map. Each station is coloured according to the actual
flood status, for example:
Light blue: Below normal level
Dark blue: Above normal level
Yellow: Warning level
Red: Alert Level
The alert levels have been developed from analysing historical data and based on
ground conditions.
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66 Final Report 66
Figure 5-2 The Krishna-Bhima WEB Portal (PC version) for status and forecast
Figure 5-3 shows the results presented in a WEB Bulletin for the forecasted discharges along the rivers and inflow forecasts to reservoirs.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS
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Figure 5-3 WEB Bulletin showing flow forecasts
WEB Page for Mobile Devices: A compressed WEB portal has been prepared for
dissemination of results to mobile devices. The display can be used for
iPhone/iPad/Android or other devices supporting pixel resolutions from 320x480 up
to 640x640 pixels. The mobile WEB Page has provision for selecting three different
data types (discharge, reservoirs and rainfall). The upper part of the WEB Page
shows the station status presented on Google Maps (including the normal Google
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68 Final Report 68
Maps features like zooming and selection of different maps). The lower part of the
WEB page shows selected graph (when clicking on the map), where it is possible to
zoom in and out and to see the data at selected time steps in a tabular view.
Figure 5-4 shows examples of forecast results in a Mobile WEB Page for the
Krishna-Bhima system. The three displays refer to discharge, reservoirs and rainfall.
Figure 5-4 Example from the Mobile WEB Page: left- discharge time series,
middle- reservoirs, right- rainfall
5.1.3 Flood Warning Reports/Messages
Table 5.1 shows a category of warning messages for dissemination through a specific
medium.
Table 5.1 Dissemination of flood warning
Message
category
Message
dissemination
by
Message dissemination to Message generation
1 SMS alerts List of mobile phone numbers
of selected WRD officials,
Maharashtra State Government
officials, Divisional
Commissioner, District
Collectors, district disaster
management nodal officers
(RDC),and any other
Automatically
generated for the day
and time of forecast
update from the
RTSF&ROS system
as soon as the forecast
reaches the specified
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individuals as decided by
WRD. (the list can be updated
by the operator of the
RTSF&ROS for current and
future use).
warning level.
Specific warning
messages can also be
entered by the
operator (Figure 5.18)
2 E-mail List of WRD and other
Government officials, relevant
organisations, NGOs, central,
state and local level disaster
management agencies, any
other interested
individuals/organisations who
request flood warning
information via the feedback
system implemented in the
RTSF&ROS website.
Automatically
generated for the day
and time of forecast
update from the
RTSF&ROS system
as soon as the forecast
reaches the specified
warning level.
Specific warning
messages can also be
entered by the
operator (Figure 5.18)
3 Fax List of high level state
Government offices
(Mantralaya, Mumbai, WRD
offices) or district /
subdivisional offices where E-
mail service is not readily
available.
The daily flood
warning report
prepared by the duty
officer is printed and
faxed.
4 Courier Senior officials of WRD and
Mantralaya Mumbai
Daily, weekly,
monthly, seasonal
(annual) flood
outlook reports to be
produced by BSD and
delivered .
5 Website Public All the information as
described above will
be available in the
RTSF&ROS website
with relevant links
Figure 5-5 shows the dissemination tool from the RTSF&ROS User Interface, in
which a number of mobile phones and E-mail addresses can be entered, updated and
saved. The warning and alert message can then be sent to the specified list by
pressing the “send” button. The message provides the WEB link for detailed
forecasts and waning information.
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70 Final Report 70
Figure 5-5 Sample Warning Message for SMS alert and E-mail
Figures 5-6 and 5-7 show sample flood warning report formats for dissemination.
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Final Report 71
Figure 5-6 Flow/flood warning report format (Krishna)
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72 Final Report 72
Figure 5-7 Flow/flood warning report format (Bhima)
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 73
6 CAPACITY BUILDING
6.1 Introduction The goal of Capacity building is to ensure that by the end of the project WRD has a
self sustaining team operating and maintaining the Real Time Streamflow Forecast
and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS), with a strong internal structure,
and links to external organisations with whom WRD can share experience, impart
to and draw on external knowledge. As a process of needs analysis, a review of the
existing organisations and institutional arrangement and training requirement was
made in the Inception Report (December 2011).
6.2 Trainings Conducted Under the project regular and intensive training activity was taken up right from the
beginning of the project covering various subjects. The trainings were conducted
by International and National experts in their respective field of expertise.
Geographic Information System (GIS) along with use of remote sensing data has
emerged as a powerful tool for handling spatial and non-spatial geo-referenced data
for preparation and visualization of inputs and outputs, and for integrating with
hydrological and hydrodynamic models. To understand the capabilities of remote
sensing and GIS, trainings on Remote sensing & GIS and its application to water
resources were organised.
As the basics of hydrological and hydraulic and modelling approach in these fields
are immensely important to this project, the trainings on introduction to modelling,
Open Channel Hydraulics, Hydrology, Rainfall-runoff modelling and River Basin
modelling were conducted.
No model is useful without the good data sets and no data set is used efficiently
without the relevant model. The input data sets for the modelling cover range of
data including time series data of hydrological and climatic parameters,
topographical data including the river cross sections, GIS data sets, the data related
to all hydraulic structures, the users, their demands etc. The good part of training
period was devoted to make these data sets ready for the modelling. This also
included the training on Global Positioning System with field exercises.
Emphasis was also given on hands-on-training, including exercises on MIKE 11
and MIKEBASIN packages which form the backbone of the project. MIKE 11 is a
user friendly, fully dynamic, dimensional modelling tool for the detailed analysis,
design, management and operation of both simple and complex river systems.
MIKE 11 is used in the project for short term forecasting. Hence continued sessions
of MIKE 11 trainings were conducted. MIKEBASIN is a river basin modelling
tool, which is used for the optimal water allocation for planning as well as long
term forecasting. Exposure was given to officers on MIKEBASIN software. An
introduction was also given to optimisation tools in the short term and long term
forecasting.
The Knowledge Base System (KBS) is developed and installed to store the spatial
and non-spatial data sets including historical and real time data as well as the
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74 Final Report
simulation results from models. The KBS provides many tools to analyse the time
series and GIS data. The officers are given training on Knowledge Base System
(KBS).
The ultimate aim of the project is to run the forecasting system in operational mode
to generate the advance warnings and alerts. The user friendly forecasting system
developed in RTSF&ROS is capable of running in an on-line mode and also in an
off-line mode to generate different scenarios. The officers are trained to run the
forecasting system, which they did on a trial basis during the monsoon period of
2012.
Appendix A provides a detailed list of trainings conducted during the project. In
addition to these training activities, three presentations on Flood Forecasting as
well as the on forecasting using RTSF&ROS for Krishna & Bhima basins were
given to the Officers of HP and MERI at Nashik.
6.3 International Study Tours
As per the conditions of contract DHI had organized international study tours in
Europe and USA for senior officers as a part of capacity building programme. The aim of the study tour was to give exposure to the officials and to observe the operational inflow forecasting & decision support in these countries. A group of 4
Senior Officials visited Europe during 3-10 June, 2012 and another group of 5
officials visited USA during 14-25 June, 2012. Summary reports of the two study
tours as prepared by the WRD teams are given below.
6.3.1 Study tour to Europe
The Water Resources Department nominated five officers for this study tour to
Europe to visit Denmark, Austria & Germany, which included Shri. Ekanath B.
Patil, Principal Secretary (WR) Water Resources Department, Mantralaya,
Mumbai; Shri. H. T. Mendhegiri, Chief Engineer (WR) & Joint Secretary,Water
Resources Department, Mantralaya, Mumbai; Shri. C. A. Birajdar, Chief Engineer
(SP), Water Resources Department, Pune; Dr. P. K. Pawar, Executive Engineer,
Hydro-meteorological Data Processing Division, Nashik and Shri. J. M. Shaikh,
Executive Engineer, Irrigation Project Division, Nagpur. However, Shri. Ekanath
B. Patil, Principal Secretary (WR), could not participate in the study as his presence
was required in an urgent and important Government work in Mantralaya, Mumbai.
Mr. Gregers Jorgensen, Web based Modeller & Forecasting Expert of DHI,
Denmark coordinated the study tour in Europe. Ms Silvia Matz, Team Leader,
Forecast System, DHI WASY, Germany provided support as a resource person for
the tour.
The visit to DHI Head office, Horsholm, Copenhagen, Denmark was organized on
4th June 2012. Dr. Jacob Host Madsen, Director, Dr. Kim Wium Olesen, Head of
Water Resources Department and Mr. Gregers Jorgensen were available for
conducting the study visit to DHI. Worldwide applications of state-of-the-art
modelling systems for water resources & flood management including flood
mapping, flood, forecasting, modelling & web based water resources information
management were presented. A visit to hydraulic laboratory & test facilities
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
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including a physical model for coastal area erosion of East of American coast was
organised. The radar system to forecast rainfall for Copenhagen city installed at
DHI was also shown to the visitors.
The officials left for Vienna, Austria on 5th June, 2012 and a tour to visit Danube
river complex was arranged. Officials observed the measures taken to avoid
flooding the city by constructing a parallel river stream/channel to divert flood
water due to snow melt, which is also used for navigation purpose.
The participants visited International Forecasting Center, Graz, Austria on 6th June,
2012. Mr. Schatzl Robest from hydrological forecasting unit of Department of
Steiermark Schee Loudesre Giesnug, welcomed the team & explained the
forecasting system. An automated river forecasting system is working in three
different basins in Styria, namely Mur, Raab & Enns rivers. The forecasting system
is based on MIKE 11, similar to the system being implemented in Krishna & Bhima
river basins in Maharashtra. Field visit to “Kainach Lieboch” station on a tributary
of Mur was taken up to observe real time data collection.
Visit to the Flood Forecasting Department ARSO (Meteorological Office), Ljubljana in Slovenia was organised on 7th June, 2012 where the flood forecasting upgrade for the Slovenian rivers Sava & Soca was presented. ARSO (Meteorological Office of Slovenia) in cooperation with DHI, Denmark, has developed “FLOOD WATCH”, a user friendly decision support system for flood forecasting. Field visit to river
gauge station on Sava river near Ljubljana city was arranged to study the setup of a
new automatic telemetric network and measurement techniques.
The officials visited Munich, Germany on 8th June, 2012. Miss. Silvia Matz, made
presentation on flow forecasting system for hydro-power projects & river water
quality in Germany. Forecast model E-Watch developed for forecast in DACH
areas in Germany was explained. It was initially developed for flood forecast &
Figure 6-1 WRD officials at the Hydrological Unit, Ljubljana
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76 Final Report
now is being used for energy forecast. During the afternoon session, a visit to
Danube river system was organised after which, the study tour programme was
completed
6.3.2 Study tour to USA
The study tour to USA (14 – 25 June 2012) was organized by DHI as a part of the
capacity building activities of the Project with an objective to obtain an overview of
latest technologies real time streamflow forecasting, acquire a sound understanding
of state-of-the-art solutions to water resources management, and specifically to
multi-purpose reservoir management. The officers namely Mr. D.D.Bhide, Director
General, MERI, Nashik, Mr. H.K. Gosavi, Chief Engineer, Planning and
Hydrology, Nashik, Mr. R.B.Ghote Chief Engineer & Chief Administrator
(CADA), Aurangabad, Mr. R.N.Thakare, Superintending Engineer, Vigilance Unit,
Nagpur and Mr. D.A.Bagade, Executive Engineer, Basin Simulation Division,
Pune were nominated by Government of Maharashtra, Water Resources
Department, Mantralaya.
On request of DHI the tour was assisted and conducted by Mr. Carter Borden,
Senior Hydrologist, University of Idaho, Boise, Idaho, USA, who acted as the
resource person and tour director.
After arriving San Fancisco on 14th June, the team moved to Sacramento, the
capital city of California State for a halt and discussed the study tour program with
tour organiser. On June 15, the team went to the Bay Delta Tour sponsored by
California Department of Water Resources. For this Bay Delta tour, team was
accompanied by Mr. Micheal Miller of California Department of Water Resources
and Martina Koller, Staff Environmental Scientist, Delta Science Program. The
Delta of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers is California’s unique and valuable
resource and an integral part of California’s water system. It receives runoff from
over 40% of State’s land area and is the major collection point for water that serves
more than 25 million people, two-thirds of State’s population. Agricultural, urban,
industrial, environmental, and recreational interest have a vital stake in the Delta
and have a complex inter relationships. The Delta provides habitat for many species
of fish, birds, mammals, and plants.
Photographs of Bay Delta Tour California State
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 77
Daily Decision of river releases, Trinity diversions, delta exports and San Luis
Operations is based on process which accounts data evaluated (delta water quality,
delta outflow, river flow, river temperatures, Energy, fishery status and storage
targets) in coordination with Department of Water Resources, Corps of Engineers,
National Weather Service, Fish and Wildlife, Department of Fish and Game,
National Marine Fisheries, Western Area Power Administration and local agencies.
Non controllable factors like forced outages, air temperatures, emergency
operations, tides, winds, precipitation etc.
Overview of California state water project: Office of the State Engineer established
with appointment of William Hammond Hall in 1878. California state water project
is the largest state-built and operated multipurpose water and power system in
USA. The 701 miles of canals and pipelines provide drinking water for 25 million
people and irrigation for 750000 acres of farmland. The SWP (State Water Project)
also provides power generation; recreation, flood protection, and helps in maintain
delta water quality. The SWP includes 770 ft high, Oroville dam and one of main
source of hydropower. Number of storage facilities are 34. Total reservoir storage is
7.2 cubic kilometres. Prominent projects are California aqueduct with canal 33.5 m
width, 10 m deep and capacity 13100 cfs, construction of delta pumping facilities,
south bay facilities, Edmonton pumping plant having highest lift per volume in the
world with single lift of 1926 feet and volume of 4480 cfs.
On 16th June, the team saw San Francisco Bay-Delta Model at Bridge way
Sausalito, CA. Mrs. Linda Holm, Park Ranger gave in brief discussed the critical
issues of Bay-Delta. It is a three dimensional model of the San Francisco Bay and
Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta. It was built in 1957 by the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers as a scientific tool to test the impact of proposed changes to the Bay and
related waterways. It helps in interpreting the critical missions of the Corps in
environment, navigation, and flood control throughout the watershed. The
simulated tidal action and currents in the Bay Model change every few minutes and
can create a 24-hour tidal cycle in 14.9 minutes. The team studied the model in
detail.
On June 18th, the team visited the Real Time Data Acquisition System of Oroville-
Wyandotte Irrigation District Watershed Data Centre and Bubbler System at Sly
Creek Reservoir. Mr. Mark Heggli, World Bank Consultant and an Instrumentation
specialist guided the team. The system of twenty five telemetry hydro
meteorological stations is installed in the valley. The different equipments like
receiver, antenna, servers, workstations etc were installed at real time data centre. It
was possible to observe the data of nearly 1000 stations of the continent. The
details were discussed in detail and then team proceeded to visit Bubbler System at
Sly Creek Reservoir. The Sly Creek reservoir mainly produces hydroelectricity.
The bubbler system was installed on the left flank of the reservoir. Small gauge
house building was built to accommodate bubbler system with data logger. The
equipment were installed in 2010 and were working satisfactorily. System measures
Reservoir water level at an interval of an hour and transmits this data to the data
centre. Team members also had a fruitful interaction on INSAT, VSAT mode of
transmission, instrumentation with the instrumentation specialist.
RTSF & ROS Krishna and Bhima River Basins
78 Final Report
Photographs of Visit to Bubbler System installation at Sly Creek Reservoir
On June 19, the team visited the Napa County Flood Control and Water
Conservation District. The Napa county flood control authority welcomed the
delegation and had a presentation explaining history of Napa Flooding, funding
problems for flood control works, peoples participation, flood/river training works.
Rick Thomasser, Julie Blue Lucida, P.E. Flood Project Manager and Lindsey of
California Water Resources Department participated in the discussion. The Napa
river runs some 89 km from Mount St. Helena to San Pablo Bay and drains a
watershed of 1100 Sq Km. The average annual flow of the Napa river is about 37
cumecs through the populated centre of the city of Napa. During a 100 year flood,
the flow increases to an estimated 1200 cumecs to 1300 cumecs. Napa valley is
inundated on regular basis for thousands of years. The river is prone to seasonal
flooding from November through April month. Some 21 serious floods have been
recorded from 1862 to till date. The most serious recent floods occurred in 2005,
1997, 1995 and 1986. The federal government first authorised the preliminary
examination and survey in 1934. In 1944 recommended channel improvement and
construction of dam on Conn Creek. In 1948 water conservation reservoir namely
Lake Hennessy was created by building a dam on Conn Creek. This dam did not
solve the problem. In 1995, Corps offered a plan; enlarging the river channel and
constraining the river within that channel. In 1997, living river design was adopted.
Work on the Napa creek portion started in Nov 2010. This portion of the project
was undertaken to control potential flooding in an area along Napa Creek between
Jefferson street and the Napa river in downtown Napa. Removal of existing vehicle
bridges, installations of new channels and reshaping of the creeks bank are the main
activities. Team had a walkthrough for observing the flood control works. Team
visited Vineyards in the Napa valley and also visited University of Berkley.
On June 21, after arriving New York, the team travelled to visit Robert Moses
Niagara Hydroelectric Power Station in Lewiston, New York near Niagara fall. The
place is about 650 miles away from New York. On June 22, they observed the
Niagara Hydroelectric Power Station. The Hydroelectric Power Plant diverts water
from Niagara river above Niagara falls and returns the water into the lower portion
of the river near lake Ontario. It utilizes 13 generators at an installed capacity of
2525 megawatts (MW). In 1957 the United States congress approved the project
and construction began. The New York Power Authority created a man-made 7.7
Sq. Km, 83 Million Cubic meter upper reservoir which stores water for day time
use through a tunnel from a point upstream on the Niagara river. The opposite
boundary of this fore bay is another dam. This dam is part of the 240 MW Lewiston
Pump generating plant which houses 12 electrically powered pumps that can move
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water to another higher storage reservoir behind this second dam. At night a
substantial fraction 2300 cubic meter/second of the water in the Niagara river to the
lower reservoir by two 210 m tunnels. The normal flow of water volume flowing
over the Horseshoe falls is approximately 100000 cubic feet per second. Peak flow
over Horseshoe falls recorded by Ontario Hydro has been 225000 cubic feet per
second. By International agreement Canadians draw 56500 cubic feet per second &
Americans draw 32500 cubic feet per second of water. Electricity generated in the
Moses plant is used to power the pumps to push water into the reservoir behind the
Lewiston dam. The water is pumped at night because demand for electricity is
much lower than during the day. When electricity demand is high, water is released
from the upper reservoir through generators in the Lewiston dam. The same water
flows into the lower reservoir, where it falls again through the turbine of Moses
plant. This arrangement is called pumped storage hydroelectricity.
6.3.3 International training (Proposed)
It is proposed to organise a one-week training by international experts to about 16
technical officers of WRD to enhance concepts and skills on modelling, forecasting
and operation of water resources systems. The training is planned to be held in
Pune in November 2013
DHI has contacted the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok Thailand
for conducting the proposed training. The Geoinformatics Center (GIC) -
http://www.geoinfo.ait.ac.th/ of AIT has expertise in conducting such training. GIC
has also developed expertise in advanced GIS and satellite based technologies in
assessing flood and drought risk in many countries and has conducted training
courses for Government agencies of many countries in Asia. AIT (www.ait.asia) is
an intergovernmental organisation, which is also supported by the Government of
India and is an international academic institute of high reputation. Therefore, the
consultant strongly recommends to WRD to avail the expertise and experience of
AIT so that its technical officers get an opportunity to learn the state-of-the art
technology related to RTSF & ROS.
The following training modules:
1. Advance GIS and satellite data processing tools and techniques for flood
and drought mapping and risk assessment
2. Advance hydrology and hydraulic modelling
3. Disaster management: concepts and practices
4. Flood management concepts, flood modelling, forecasting, warning and
dissemination
6.4 Workshops As part of capacity building and engaging WRD and other stakeholders in the
project development, a total of five workshops were conducted. The workshops
were organized by WRD and were facilitated by experts of the consultants. Among
the workshops listed below, the final workshop was conducted on 3rd
October 2013
in which the Final Report was presented. Also presented was the plan to implement
the 24-month technical support period (March 2013 – February 2015).
RTSF & ROS Krishna and Bhima River Basins
80 Final Report
Table 5.4 List of Workshops
Sl.
No.
Workshop Date Activities
1 Inception
Workshop
7 December
2011
Presentation of Inception Report,
stakeholder consultation, further
needs assessment, feedback on
approach & methodology and on
capacity building plan.
2 Interim
Workshop
27 March
2012
Presentation of Interim Report,
feedback on the modelling systems
developed. Presentation of draft
knowledge base system, initial
demos of the models and forecasting
and reservoir operation system.
3 Workshop
on flow
and flood
forecasting
11 October
2012
Presentation of the modelling system,
comments & discussion on the system,
including the forecasting formats and flood
mapping, suggestions to incorporate into
the final version of the forecasting system.
Presentation of the Draft Reservoir
Operation Guidance system and Draft
communication management system,
including web portal.
4 Workshop
reservoir
operation
and
Informatio
n
communic
ation
system and
Draft Final
Report
7 May 2013 Presentation of the Final Reservoir
Operation Guidance system including
optimization system and
communication management system,
including web portal.
Presentation of Draft Final Report,
feedback/comments/suggestions,
evaluation of project achievement,
finalisation of technical support for the
next two years of system operation
discussion on work plan for the support
period.
5 Final
Workshop
3 October
2013
Presentation of the complete project
(including RTDAS) by WRD, presentation
of the Final Report, Implementation Plan
for Support Period and recommendations
for sustainability of the RTSF&ROS.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 81
6.5 Strategy for Sustainability of RTSF&ROS
6.5.1 Institutional Strengthening
The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) at Pune was established in 2007 after
recommendations of the Wadnere Committee for Real Time Streamflow and Flood
Forecasting. BSD is headed by an Executive Engineer supported by administrative
staff. At present there are four Assistant Engineers (Grade –I) and six Assistant
Engineers (Grade-II). The six Assistant Engineers (Grade-II) are also assigned to
sub-divisions in Shirur, Kohlapur, Sangli, Stara, Solapur and Pune.
The organisational aspects of the RTSF& ROS are of paramount importance for the
sustainability of the established systems. It is important to foster an environment
through training and participation in which WRD staff take ownership of the
system. To sustain this it is critical to establish simple and well thought work
processes ensuring optimal use of the capabilities of the modelling systems. The
BSD is, therefore, considered as the key division of WRD in implementing the
project and develop into a sustainable organisation in operating, maintaining and
updating the modelling systems developed under the RTSF& ROS project.
Therefore, based on the requirements for operationalizing the RTSF&ROS
developed in the project in a sustainable way, an institutional development plan is
focussed at BSD.
6.5.2 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD
The Basin Simulation Division will be responsible to maintain all the data and
models developed in the present project. Regular updating of the models including
timely validation as new data becomes available will also be the responsibility of
BSD. The operational control room will be central operations room for BSD.
Therefore, BSD will perform the following functions:
Operation and maintenance of the Real Time Data Acquisition System
Management of the central Database
Meteorological analysis and forecast
Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of the basin
Update of the hydrologic and hydrodynamic models
Operation and maintenance of real time forecasting systems (inflow and
flood)
Operation and maintenance of the reservoir operation guidance system
Communication and information dissemination
These functions should be performed by the assistant engineering staff with one
executive engineer as the manager of BSD. The engineering staff will take turns to
manage the operational control room. Additional staff might be required to man the
operational control room round the clock during critical situations. In addition to
the existing assistant engineers, it is recommended to employ two more staff at
BSD: 1) Meteorologist or a hydrologist with experience and training in interpreting
meteorological information, 2) ICT Expert. The proposed hydrologist/meteorologist
should have a postgraduate degree in hydrology/meteorology/climatology with
RTSF & ROS Krishna and Bhima River Basins
82 Final Report
expertise in rainfall forecasting and satellite data applications in meteorology. The
ICT expert should have a graduate degree in computer science/engineering with
expertise in information communication, web design and updates.
It is proposed to organise BSD into the following sub-divisions/sections. Also
shown in Figure 6-3 is the proposed Organogram.
No. Sub-div/Section Functions Responsible Officer Other staff
1 Operational
Control Room
Operation of the
forecast and
reservoir operation
guidance system.
Assistant Engineer (Gr-I) Assistant Eng.
(Gr-II),
Meteorologist,
ICT Expert,
Office
Assistant
2 Meteorological
forecast
Management of
meteorological
data, Analysis of
meteorological
conditions of the
basins, Compilation
of rainfall
forecasts.
Hydrologist/Meteorologist
3 Database Acquisition of
hydro-met, river,
reservoir, GIS and
satellite data and
database
maintenance
Assistant Engineer (Gr-I) 2 Assistant
Engineers
(Gr-II)
4 Modelling Maintain and
update of all
models including
DSS and reservoir
operation system
Assistant Engineer (Gr-I) 4 Assistant
Engineer (Gr-
II)
5 Information
Management
Communication of
forecasts, reservoir
operation guidance
system,
dissemination of
flood forecasts,
web page
management and
updates.
ICT expert
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 83
Figure 6-2 Proposed Organogram of BSD
6.5.3 Operational Control Room
The Operational Control Room is located at the 1st floor of Sinchan Bhawan, Pune
together with the RTDAS Data Centre. The control room will be linked to the BSD
at the 4th floor with LAN. Both the BSD and the Control Room will have dedicated
broadband internet connectivity. The communication between BSD and the Control
Room should preferably be via intranet in addition to the general purpose internet
for links with all stakeholders. It is expected that all important reservoir operation
offices and related decision making offices in Pune, Nashik, Mumbai and other
districts have broadband Internet connectivity so that communications to and from
the control room is efficient and transparent. It is expected that the Operational
Control Room and hence the staff will be active beyond the monsoon season. Water
resources monitoring will be required for droughts as well as for optimal
management of the river basins.
RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
84 Final Report
7 ACTIVITIES FOR SUPPORT PERIOD
7.1 Introduction As stipulated in the Contract, a two-year technical support will commence after
completing the tasks assigned in the consultancy project. The Technical Support
period is from 17 February 2013 to 16 March 2015. Activities in the two year
Technical Support period will be directed towards ensuring the RTSF-ROS
continues as a relevant and robust system for water resources and flood
management in the Krishna-Bhima Basin. The main activities to be carried out in
the technical support period are:
Software Updates: DHI will provide free updates of the modelling software, and
the RTSF&ROS user interface according to new releases and new developments.
Help Desk and Hotline Support: A hotline support will be permanently
established as a help desk support at DHI Denmark, with remote access to the
system in the Operational Control Room in Pune. The operational staff and other
related officials of WRD will also be able to contact the DHI experts via E-mail,
skype or telephone to resolve any software and operational problem related to the
developed system. Thus a technical problem may be solved in an interactive way.
During the technical support, as stipulated in the TOR, the consultant shall provide
full and effective response to queries within 2 working days and on-site visit to
address issues that cannot be resolved through remote assistance within 2 weeks of
a request.
Operational Support: DHI will provide required support to the concerned officials
responsible for the operation of the RTSF&ROS. This support has been more
intensive during the initial period before the BSD staff gain full confidence in
operating the system. It should, however, be noted that the consultants will not
operate the system. They will only be available when the BSD staff requires expert
support to resolve certain issues. In addition to the above, an intensive support has
been provided by the consultant during the monsoon period of 2013 to test
RTSF&ROS and it was successfully live-tested and made operational on a trial
basis during the monsoon of 2013.
Support in Model Updating: The hydrological and hydrodynamic models used in
the RTSF&ROS may require updating if new information becomes available. The
Consultants will provide support to the modelling staff of BSD in updating the
models. The updates may be in the form of adding new cross sections, new
structures, testing with new date or events and recalibration.
Training: As stipulated in the TOR, DHI will conduct four training courses for
concerned staff. The details of the training courses are provided in the following
sections.
7.2 Support to be Provided
Table 7.1 presents detailed activities during quarter (3 months) of the proposed
support to be provided during the two-year technical support period.
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 85
Table 7.1 Description of activities during the support period (March 2013 – Feb 2015)
Period Support activities Outcome
Qtr-1:
March-May 2013
Monitoring of installation of
RTDAS and quality assured data
flow to the Data Centre.
Support BSD staff in self learning
and practice in modelling.
Establish hotline and help desk
support at DHI Denmark.
Software update with new release,
compatibility checks.
RTSF&ROS ready to be
operationalized on a trial
basis during the monsoon
of 2013
Quarterly Report -1.
Qtr-2:
June-Aug 2103
Final test of link between RTDAS
data and the RTSF&ROS database.
First Training Course
Updating of model for input of
available real time data from
RTDAS
Trial Operation of RTSF&ROS
Real time data from
RTDAS provided
successfully as input to
the RTSF&ROS
BSD Staff capable of
operating the RTSF&ROS
RTSF&ROS operating on
a trial basis with forecasts
issued for internal
evaluation by WRD
Quarterly Report -2.
Qtr-3:
Sept-Nov. 2013
Operation of RTSF&ROS during
September 2013.
Evaluation of performance of
forecasts by RTSF&ROS
Recalibration (fine tuning) of
models if required, with the real
time data of June-Sept 2013.
Successful trial operation
of RTSF&ROS, forecasts
evaluated by WRD,
models fine-tuned with
one-season’s real time
data.
Quarterly Report -3
Qtr-4:
Dec.2013–Feb.
2014
Model updates with new data, if
available
Second Training Course
Updated models
Quarterly Report -4
Qtr-5:
March-May 2014
Ensure complete linkage between
RTDAS data and RTSF&ROS
database
Software updates with new releases
and compatibility checks.
RTSF ready for operation
during the monsoon of
2014
Quarterly Report -5
Qtr-6:
June-Aug 2014
Operation of RTS&ROS
Issue of Forecasts (to be decided by
WRD), regular updating of Website
RTSF&ROS being
operated regularly,
forecasts issued
RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
86 Final Report
Third Training Course Quarterly Report -6
Qtr-3:
Sept-Nov. 2014
Continue forecasting up to Sept –
Oct if required
Evaluation of forecast performance
Obtain feedback from stakeholders
and incorporate suggestions on
dissemination of forecasts and
warning
Fourth training course
Regular forecast issued
Dissemination of flood
warning in consultation
with stakeholders
Quarterly Report -7
Qtr-4:
Dec 2014 – Feb.
2015
Model updates, if new data
available
Prepare annual flood report
Successful completion of
the Support period
Quarterly Report -8
Quarterly reports will be submitted, which will contain type of issues, number of
requests and resolved, and any major issues that needs attention, any update
required, and trainings offered with number of participants.
Quarterly invoices in equal instalments will be submitted to account for the
remaining 15% of the contract value.
7.3 Training Plan during the Support Period The following trainings will be provided to about 10 WRD officials.
Training
No.
Duration/
dates
Subject Topics to be covered
1 1 week
June 2013
Operation of KBS
and RTSF&ROS
Refresher course on
modelling, knowledge base
system and on the
operation of the
RTSF&ROS using real
time data from RTDAS,
interpretation of results, use
of the communication Web
Portal, updating of
Website.
2 1 week
January 2014
Hydrological and
Hydrodynamic
modelling
Refresher on hydrological
and hydrodynamic
modelling, model
calibration, model updating
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 87
3 1 week
June 2014
Operation of the
RTSF&ROS,
trouble shooting
Full operation of the
RTSF&ROS, updating
system configuration,
reservoir operation scenario
management, optimization,
error logging and trouble
shooting, help desk
coordination, generation of
flow and flood forecast
products and dissemination
of warning messages.
4 1 week
January 2015
Reporting, Flood
forecast and
warning
dissemination
Advance topics on
dissemination of flood
warnings based on
stakeholders’ feedback,
reservoir operation
guidance, maintenance and
updating of the
RTSF&ROS.
RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
88 Final Report
8 REFERENCES
/1/ Contract, RTDSS: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/2011, INDIA: HYDROLOGY
PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for
implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir
Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra,
2011.
/2/ Technical Offer, Loan No: 4749-IN, RFP No. : HP II/MAHA (SW)/2,
Consultancy services for implementation of a Real Time Streamflow
Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima
River basins in Maharashtra, 2011.
/3/ Request for Proposal, RFP: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/, INDIA: HYDROLOGY
PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for
implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir
Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra,
2011.
/4/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-1, RTSF&
ROS, September 2011.
/5/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-2, RTSF&
ROS, October 2011.
/6/ Government of Maharashtra, Water Resources Department, Report on
precise determination of reservoir releases during emergency situation in the
State by Technical Committee. May 2007.
/7/ Bidding documents for Procurement of Goods and Related Services for
Supply, Installation, Testing, Commissioning and Maintenance of Real
Time Data Acquisition System for the Krishna and Bhima River Basins in
Maharashtra, ICB No: HP II / MAHA (SW) / 1, India: Hydrology Project
Phase-II, (Loan: 4749-IN), Chief Engineer, Hydrology Project, Government
of Maharashtra, 2011.
/8/ National Institute of Hydrology / DHI. Development of Decision Support
System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management,
Inception Report, DSS (Planning) Project, Hydrology Project-II, 2009.
/9/ Water Resources Department, Government of Maharashtra. Documents of
various Reservoirs.
/10/ National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Development of Decision Support
System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management,
Interim Report, DHI, June 2011.
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/11/ Bhakra Beas Management Board, Real Time Decision Support System for
Operational Management of BBMB Reservoirs. DSS Software
Development Specifications. DHI. October 2009.
/12/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual
Chapter 2, Identification of causes of failures in Dams and their appurtenant
structure, 1995.
/13/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual
Chapter 7, Flood forecasting, reservoir operation and Gate Operation,1984.
/14/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual
Chapter 8, Preparedness for Dealing with emergency situations on dams,
1984.
/15/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dams in Maharashtra,
2000.
/16/ Maharashtra Water and Irrigation Commission Report, 1999.
/17/ Raghunath, H.M. Hydrology: Principles, Analysis, Design. New Age
Publishers, 2006.
/18/ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Guide to Meteorological
Instruments & Methodology of Observations (6th
edition) WMO-No. 8,
1996.
/19/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Interim Report RTSF& ROS, March
2012.
/20/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Knowledge Base System
Documentation, June 2012.
/21/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Knowledge Base System User Guide,
June 2012.
/22/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, RTSF&ROS Version 1, User Guide
Draft, June 2012.
/23/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Installation Guide for KBS and
RTSF&ROS modelling Packages
/24/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, RTSF&ROS Version 2, User Guide,
September 2012.
/25/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, RTSF&ROS Model Development
Report, September 2012.
/26/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Reservoir Operation System &
Communication Management System, October 2012.
/27/ HALL, W.A. and DRACUP, J.A. 1970. Water resources systems
engineering. New York, McGraw-Hill.
/28/ HILLIER, F.S. and LIEBERMAN, G.J. 1990. Introduction to operations
research, 5th edn. New York, McGraw-Hill.
/29/ WURBS, R.A. 1996. Modelling and analysis of reservoir system operations.
Upper Saddle River, N.J., Prentice Hall
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/30/ REVELLE, C. 1999. Optimizing reservoir resources. New York, John
Wiley
/31/ Loucks, D.P., et.al. (2005). Water Resources Systems Planning and
Management: An Introduction to Methods, Models and Applications.
UNESCO PUBLISHING.
/32/ DHI Water & Environment (2011), MIKE by DHI, AUTOCAT User Guide,
2001.
/33/ Ngo, L.L. Madsen, H. & Rosbjerg, D. (2007), Simulation and Optimization
modelling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam,
Journal of Hydrology, 336, 269-281.
/34/ Pedersen, C.B., Madsen, H., Skotner, C. (2007), Real-time optimization of
dam releases using multiple objectives. Application to the Orange-Fish-
Sundays River Basin, South Africa, 13th
SANCIAHS Symposium, Cape
Town, South Africa.
/35/ Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S. and Gupta, V. (1992), Effective and efficient
global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Water Resources
Research, 28(4), 1015-1031.
/36/ Madsen, H. (2003), Parameter Estimation in distributed hydrological
catchment modelling using automatic calibration with multiple objectives,
Advances in Water Resources, 26, 205-216.
/37/ Madsen, H. & Vinter, B. (2006), Parameter optimisation in complex
hydrodynamic and hydrological modelling systems using distributed
computing, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on
Hydroinformatics (Eds. P. Gourbesville, J. Cunge, V. Guinot and S.Y.
Liong), 4-8 September 2006, Nice, France, Vol. 4, 2489-2496.
/38/ Madsen, H., Skotner, C. (2005), Adaptive state updating in real-time river
flow forecasting - A combined filtering and error forecasting procedure,
Journal of Hydrology, 308(1-4), 302 – 312.
/39/ Website: www.imd.gov.in
/40/ Website: www.punefloodcontrol.com
/41/ Website: [email protected]
/42/ Website: www.ncmrwf.gov.in
/43/ Website: www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/
/44/ Website: www.nrsc.gov.in
/45/ Website: www.mahawrd.org
/46/ Website: www.idrn.gov.in
/47/ Website: www.ndma.gov.in
/48/ Website: www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in
/49/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov
/50/ Website: www.cgwb.gov.in
/51/ Website: www.mahahp.org
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/53/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 91
DOCUMENTATION
Following documents have been prepared and submitted to WRD as deliverables of the
Project:
INCEPTION REPORT
INTERIM REPORT
KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM
USERGUIDE TO THE KNOWLEDGE ABSE SYSTEM
INSTALLATION GUIDE FOR THE KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM
USERGUIDE (VERSION 1 AND 2) TO THE RTSF&ROS MODELLING
SYSTEM
MODEL DEVELOPMENT REPORT
RESERVOIR OPERATION AND COMMUNICATION MANAGEMENT
SYSTEM
TRAINING MATERIALS
WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS
USER GUIDES OF THE MODELLING SYSTEMS
DRAFT FINAL REPORT
FINAL REPORT
FINAL REPORT Appendix: Results of Real time testing during the monsoon
of 2013
RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
92 Final Report
APPENDIX A: LIST OF TRAININGS CONDUCTED
N0 Duration
/ date
Topic /
contents
Venue Trainers Participants
1 4 days
27-30 Sep.
2011
Introduction to
Remote sensing
& GIS and
application to
water resources
BSD Consultant
staff (Dr.
Pandit)
Executive Engineer,
and 8 officers of
BSD (9 persons)
2 1 day
20 Oct.
2011
Introduction to
modelling
RTSF&ROS
Consultant’s
Project office,
Pune
Consultant
staff (Guna
Paudyal,
Finn
Hansen)
Executive Engineer,
and 8 officers of
BSD (9 persons)
3 3 days
22-24
Dec.
2011
Hydraulics:
Open Channels,
Control
Structures, Mike
Basin
RTSF&ROS
Consultant’s
Project office,
Pune
Consultant
staff (Guna
Paudyal,
Dr Pandit)
8 officers of
BSD
4 1 days
27 Jan
2012
Hydraulics:
Open Channels,
Control
Structures
RTSF&ROS
Consultant’s
Project office,
Pune
Consultant
staff (Finn
Hansen)
8 officers of
BSD
5 1 days
3 Feb
2012
Hydrology:
Concepts of
rainfall runoff,
met forecasts,
rainfall runoff
modelling using
NAM
RTSF&ROS
Consultant’s
Project office,
Pune
Consultant
staff (Dr
Saso)
Executive
Engineer, and
8 officers of
BSD (9
persons)
6 3 days
28, Feb,
1 Mar, 3
Mar
2012
GIS & RS : Use
of Spatial Data
and sources
MIKE 11 : HD
Model
MIKE Basin
RTSF&ROS
Consultant’s
Project office,
Consultant
staff (Guna
Paudyal,
Dr Pandit ,
Prashant)
Executive
Engineer, and
8 officers of
BSD (9
persons)
7 5 days
16-21
April 2012
MIKE 11 : HD
Modelling and
Result
Interpretation
BSD Consultant
staff (Finn
Hansen)
BSD (9
persons); HP
(5 persons) =
14
8 2 days
18-19 May
2012
Introduction to
GPS (Including
Field Exercise)
BSD
Field
Consultant
staff (Dr
Pandit,
Guna
Paudyal)
BSD (9
persons); HP
(9 persons)
=18
9 4 days
18-21
Knowledge
Base System
and the
BSD Consultant
staff
(Gregers,
BSD (9
persons); HP
(3 persons)
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 93
N0 Duration
/ date
Topic /
contents
Venue Trainers Participants
June. 2012 RTSF&ROS
(Forecasting
System)
Anders
Klinting,
Guna
Paudyal,
Dr Pandit )
10 1 Day Reservoir
Optimisation
BSD Consultant
staff
(Claus
Pedersen,
Guna
Paudyal,
Dr Pandit )
BSD (9
persons); HP
(3 persons)
11 3 Days
3-5 Dec,
2012
GIS & Remote
Sensing,
Refresher on
GIS and remote
sensing
concepts,
Applications of
RS & GIS in
Water
Resources
BSD Consultant
staff (Dr.
Pandit)
BSD (8
persons); HP
(4 persons);
WRD 1 person
12 1 Day
6 Dec,
2012
Knowledge
Base System
(KBS)
GIS, Time
Series Data
BSD Consultant
staff
(Kavita
Patil,
Rucha
Dakave)
BSD (8
persons); HP
(4 persons);
WRD 1 person
13 1 Day
7 Dec,
2012
Operation of
RTSF&ROS,
RTSF&ROS for
forecasting &
reservoir
operation
BSD Consultant
staff (Dr.
Pandit)
BSD (8
persons); HP
(4 persons);
WRD 1 person
14 2 Days
11-12
Dec,
2012
River Basin
Modelling
(MIKE BASIN)
Basics of MIKE
Basin,
components,
development,
Krishna - Bhima
model
simulations
BSD Consultant
staff (Dr.
Pandit,
Kavita
Patil)
BSD (8
persons); HP
(4 persons);
WRD 1 person
15 1 Day
13 Dec,
2012
Crop Water
Requirement
using
CROPWAT
BSD Consultant
staff (Dr.
Pandit)
BSD (8
persons); HP
(4 persons);
WRD 1 person
16 1 Day
14
Dec2012
Rainfall-runoff
modelling
(NAM)
Details of NAM
model, data
inputs,
parameters,
BSD Consultant
staff
(Kavita
Patil,
Rucha
Dakave)
BSD (8
persons); HP
(4 persons);
WRD 1 person
RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins
94 Final Report
N0 Duration
/ date
Topic /
contents
Venue Trainers Participants
viewing results,
calibration
17 4 Days River
Hydrodynamic
modelling, Details of
MIKE11 model,
setting up
network, Cross-
section,
boundary, time
series data, model updating, flood mapping,
viewing and
analysing results
BSD Consultant
staff (Guna
Paudyal,
Prashant
Kadam,
Rucha
Dakave))
BSD (8
persons); HP
(4 persons);
WRD 1 person
Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS
Final Report 95
APPENDIX B: RESULTS OF RTSF&ROS USING REAL
TIME DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM
Separate Volume