RECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE TCWC Port More sbyRECENT AND CURRENT ACTIVITIES OF THE TCWC Port More sby

SIXTH TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCsRSMCs/TCWCsTECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETINGTECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIABRISBANE, AUSTRALIA

2 TO 5 NOVEMBER 20092 TO 5 NOVEMBER 2009

Presented byPresented byMr. Jimmy GOMOGAMr. Jimmy GOMOGA

ASSISTANT DIRECTORASSISTANT DIRECTORMANAGER: FORECASTING & WARNING CENTREMANAGER: FORECASTING & WARNING CENTRE

PNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEPNG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

PH: +675 324 4583PH: +675 324 4583FAX: +675 325 5544FAX: +675 325 5544

Mobile: +675 6812484Mobile: +675 6812484EMAIL: EMAIL: jgomoga@pngmet.gov.pgjgomoga@pngmet.gov.pg

IntroductionIntroduction– Area of responsibly Monitoring Role in the Tropics–Port Moresby TCWC Role–Tropical Cyclone Season 2005/06 – 2008/09–High seas forecasts and warnings–Non Meteorological Information–Training & Research

Port MoresbyForecasting Centre

Area of ResponsiblyArea of Responsibly

Port Moresby

TCWC

Port Moresby is designated as a TCWC with geographic specialization area of responsibly bounded by the EQ 141E, 10S 141E, 09S 144E, 12S 147E, 12S 155E, 08S 155E, 05S 160E, EQ 160E, EQ 141E.

ROLE OF FORECASTING & ROLE OF FORECASTING & WARNING CENTREWARNING CENTRE

• PUBLIC & SEVERE WEATHER• (REAL TIME MONITORING & ANALYSIS)• (NOWCASTING 0-1 DAY, MID-RANGE 1-5 DAYS &

LONG RANGE >5 DAYS)

• AVIATION WEATHER

• TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING & FORECASTING

Forecasting ToolsForecasting Tools

• Available Satellite Images• Available Numerical Models• Near real time observations from satellites• RANET, EMWIN, LRIT (Microwave prod.)• Real time observations from Observations

network• SATAID, Dvorak• Internet based Models, NOGAPS, JTWC,

BOM, ECMWF, UK MET

TECHNIQUES AND DATA USED TECHNIQUES AND DATA USED OPERATIONALLYOPERATIONALLY

�DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT MANUAL – NOT MANY YOUNG FORECASTERS ARE FAMILIAR WITH IT.

� Use satellite and internet communication a real tim e weather data is downloaded and analysis to write daily weather f orecasts and issue of severe weather and TC warnings.

� Disseminated to users and general public via email and fax communication which are then aired by the local med ia stations.

InterInter--Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

ITCZ -- Moves south in January

©1998 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

ITCZ -- Moves north in July

InterInter--Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

©1998 Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Tropical Cyclone SeasonTropical Cyclone SeasonAnnually, from 1 November to 31 May, Port Moresby produces a daily Tropical Cyclone Potential Bulletin for National Disaster Centre (NDC) to keep them abreast of the latest expectations of cyclone activity in the South Pacific and to help them with their disaster relief planning.

Additional advisories are also provided as necessary during the life of a tropical cyclone to fill any information gaps. During this same period, a routine weekly forecaster-to-forecaster conference call is carried out between Brisbane TCWC and Port Moresby forecasters to discuss the situation and developments over the next few days.

Port Moresby also provided forecasting advice to NDC for disastrous earthquakes and Tsunamis.

Seasonal & Monthly Variation of Seasonal & Monthly Variation of Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones

On the average, PNG receives one tropical cyclone a seasonMany of these have occurred in Jan/ February2002: TC Upia late in the season, May -June2007: TC Guba early in the season, Nov

Tropical Cyclone ProductsTropical Cyclone Products

• TC Warnings

• Strong Wind Warnings• Track & Treat Maps issued by BOM & JTWC

• Satellite images.

Samples of TC WARNINGSamples of TC WARNING

�TC ADVISORIES UP TO 48 HRS.

�WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES –24HRS – every 6 HRS

�TSUNAMIS, TIDAL, ADVISORIES OR PRESS RELEASES

TIME SERIES & TEMP PROFILETIME SERIES & TEMP PROFILE

NWS and Disaster OfficeNWS and Disaster Office

• Disaster Office manages disasters• NWS provide technical advice on

meteorologically related disasters• NWS issue warnings before disasters,

bulletins during disasters and conduct post mortem/assessments after disasters

ContCont’’

– After the disaster, officials visit the affected areas and make assessments on the scale of damage/loss and make recommendations for future improvements

seasons from 2005/2006 to seasons from 2005/2006 to 2008/2009,2008/2009,

• In the 4 seasons from 2005/2006 to 2008/2009, 4 out of the 10 tropical depressions that formed in the Coral and Solomon Seas-South Pacific became tropical cyclones and crossed into the Port Moresby area of responsibility. Of these, Ingrid a small intense cyclone formed on 6th March 2005 as a weak depression in the western Coral Seas and tracked east and become a tropical cyclone. Large sea swells generated by Ingrid were felt along the southern coasts of Papua New Guinea.

• On 16 April a tropical low developed just to the east of Papua New Guinea, and began to drift southwest into the Coral Sea. It developed into a tropical cyclone on 17 April, and took a more easterly track towards the north Queensland coast. TC Monica continued to develop as it approached Queensland, and crossed the coast just to the south of Lockhart River, as a Category 3 cyclone, on the afternoon of 19 April.

• TC Kate formed as a Tropical Depression on the 22 February 2006, rreached Category 2 on the 23rd February and slipped into the Papua New Guinea waters later that afternoon.

• TC Piere formed as a tropical depression in the south eastern Solomon Seas on the 15th May 2006 and tracked west into PNG. It developed into a category 1 on the 17th May and made landfall on the 19th May. There were no casualties.

•

• Guba formed on November 13, 2007 in the northern Solomon Sea, close to the island of New Britain, and reached tropical cyclone intensity the next day by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) in Brisbane, with the TCWC in Port Moresby assigning the name Guba. It meandered in the northern Coral Sea for the next week, strengthening to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone on November 16. It posed a threat to the Australian Cape York Peninsula, but remained offshore, and finally dissipated on November 20.

•

• Guba was a classical example of the split system due to the mountain (Owen Stanley range) barrier. TC Guba was in the Coral Sea and not over Oro, however, due to the maintain range barrier, a large cloud build was observed to the north eastern sector and was over Oro Province for 3-4 days and caused the flooding there.

•• Flooding in Papua New Guinea led to at least 200 deaths. In the Oro Province, about 2,000 people were evacuated as a result of the

flooding. Roads, bridges and 40 houses were washed away, as tides in the area reached two metres high. In the provincial capital, Popondetta, the water supply and electrical infrastructure was damaged, and road access was blocked. Papua New Guinea's national airline, Air Niugini, suspended flights to Popondetta's main airport. The Rabaraba district in Milne Bay Province was also hit by flooding, with 30 houses and food gardens washed away, and forcing the evacuation of about 100 people. The government in Papua New Guinea reported that an estimated 145,000 people were affected from the flooding in Oro Province. Six days of torrential rain led to a damage total of 200 million kina ($71.4 million USD). The torrential rain was the worst seen in the region in 30 years, according to the local people.

Meteorological Satellites, CONTMeteorological Satellites, CONT ’’

Research & TrainingResearch & Training•Importantly, PNG National Weather Service is primarily focused on operational forecasting, and the research and development work undertaken is focused in the area of improving tools, knowledge and skills of forecasters, and the quality and efficiency of the output.

•Port Moresby conducts annual mentoring workshops for forecasters and pre seasonal briefings in preparation for the coming cyclone season. The input to these workshops and briefings has been given added value with the help of very experienced forecasters from Brisbane TCWC who have had vast experience in forecasting and tracking of tropical cyclones.

•WMO, Pacific Desk in Hawaii – US, JICA, Meteo-France, Generic BOM Training.

Biblical El Nino Years Vs Observed El Nino Years

Biblical Predictions Observed Events Remarks

1899/1900 1900/1901 Exact

1913/1914 1914/1915 Exact

1927/1928 1925/1926 Occurred 1 year before predictions

1941/1942 1941/1942 Exact

1955/1956 1957/1958 After 1 year

1969/1970 1969/1970 Exact

1983/1984 1982/1983 Exact

1997/1998 1997/1998 Exact

2011/2012 ????

2025/2026 ????

2039/2040 ????

Biblical La Nina Years Vs Observed La Nina Years

Biblical Predictions Observed Events Remarks

1906/1907 1906/1907 Exact

1920/1921 1920/1921 Exact

1934/1935 1931/1932 2 years before predictions

1948/1949 1949/1950 Exact

1962/1963 1964/1965 1 year after

1976/1977 1975/1976 Exact

1990/1991 1988/1989 1 year before

2004/2005 2005/2006 Exact

2018/2019 ????

2032/2033 ????

2046/2047 ????

EL Nino/ La Nina Closer LookEL Nino/ La Nina Closer Look

7 years of Plenty

7 years of Drought

Port Moresby TCPort Moresby TC

•March 2005

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TC Kate 22TC Kate 22--23 February 200623 February 2006

• Tropical Cyclone “Kate” formed as a Tropical Depression at 220000 UTC

• Reached Category 2 at 230600 UTC on Monday 23rd February

• Slipped into the Papua New Guinea waters at 230300 UTC on Monday 23rd February 2006.

TC Kate TrackTC Kate Track

Track of Tropical Cyclone “Kate”Date/ Time (UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Categ ory Distance from nearest town

(km)Latitude Longitude

Feb 220000 11.00S 143.50E 1002 TD 200.0 (Daru)

Feb l 220600 11.00S 144.20E 1000 TD 220.0 (Daru)

Feb 221200 11.00S 144.50E 1000 TD 240.0 (Daru)

Feb l 221800 11.30S 145.00E 992 1 280.0 (Port Moresby)

Feb 230000 11.20S 145.80E 985 2 220.0 (Port Moresby)

Feb 230300 11.30S 146.30E 985 2 210.0 (Port Moresby)

Feb 230600 11.30S 146.80E 990 2 200.0 (Port Moresby)

Feb 231200 11.20S 146.30E 998 2 190.0 (Port Moresby)

Feb 231800 11.30S 146.30E 1000 Ex TC 210.0 (Port Moresby)

Feb 240000 11.20S 146.20E 1001 Ex TC 200.0 (Port Moresby)

91H GHz image of 91H GHz image of KateKate near peak intensity at 2248UTC 22 February 2006 near peak intensity at 2248UTC 22 February 2006 (left) and 81H at 1045UTC showing exposed low level circulation (left) and 81H at 1045UTC showing exposed low level circulation well to the well to the west of the deep convection.west of the deep convection.

However, following lesions can be learnt from Kate;

1. Weakening was due to differential steering between 850 hPa and 500 hPa levels.

2. Differential steering currents at low and mid levels brought about the position of the low level centre well west of the deep convection.

3. Warm air advection wrapped around the eastern side as did the convection, thereby strengthening and weakening the system.

4. Near border formation and dissipation of Kate was quiet difficult on when to issue a cyclone watch and handover responsibilities so it was jointly monitored.

TC ANALYSISKate formed very close to the boarder of Australia and Papua New Guinea and tracked eastward eventually crossed into its area of responsibility as Category 2. Much of the area of strong and gale winds remained on the southwest of the centre of TC Kate and therefore only strong winds were felt along the southern coast line of Papua New Guinea.

Tropical Cyclone GUBA, Nov 2007

Flooding in Papua New Guinea led to at least 200 de aths. In the Oro Province, about 2,000 people were evacuated as a result of th e flooding.

Roads, bridges and 40 houses were washed away, as t ides in the area reached two metres high. In the provincial capital, Popondet ta, the water supply and electrical infrastructure was damaged, and road acc ess was blocked.

Papua New Guinea's national airline, Air Niugini, s uspended flights to Popondetta's main airport.

The Rabaraba district in Milne Bay Province was also hit by flooding, with 30 houses and food gardens washed away, and forcing th e evacuation of about 100 people.

The government in Papua New Guinea reported that an estimated 145,000 people were affected from the flooding in Oro Province. Si x days of torrential rain led to a damage total of 200 million kina ($71.4 million USD).

The torrential rain was the worst seen in the regio n in 30 years, according to the local people.

Current & Future Current & Future IImprovementsmprovements

•2007/ 08: Installation of new Forecaster Workstations•2009: Installation of LIRT System & Digital Atmosphere•Future: Upgrade of Forecasting Tools – Manual to Semi/ automated Forecasting workstations

THANK YOU ALLTHANK YOU ALL