RecentTrendsandFutureUncertaintiesinLongevityThe5thHumanMortalityDatabaseSymposium

May13-142019HarnackHaus,Berlin

Dates

May13-142019

Location

GoetheHall,HarnackHausIhnestr.16-2,Berlin(Germany)https://www.harnackhaus-berlin.mpg.de/2316/en

Sponsor

MaxPlanckInstituteforDemographicResearchRostock,Germany

Organizers

DmitriJdanov,DomantasJasilionis,VladimirShkolnikov,MagaliBarbieri

Monday,May131|P a g e

PROGRAMMEMonday,May138:30–9:00Registration9:00–9:20WelcomeandIntroduction

DmitriJdanov(MPIDR)VladimirM.Shkolnikov(DirectoroftheHMD;MPIDR)MagaliBarbieri(AssociateDirectoroftheHMD;UCBandINED)

9:20–10:00KEYNOTETALKI●Chair:JacquesVallin

MikkoMyrskylä(MPIDR)Globaltrendsinlifespanvariation

10:00–10:30COFFEEBREAK

10:30–12:00SESSIONI:Mortalitypatternsandlongevity●Chair:VladimirShkolnikov

• Guillot,M.(PennPSC/INED);RomeroPrieto,J.(CEER);Verhulst,A.;Gerland,P.(UNPD)Modelingage-specificmortalitybydetailedagebetween0and5years:Resultsfromalog-quadraticmodelappliedtohigh-qualityvitalregistrationdata

• Diaconu,V.(MPIDR);Ouellette,N.(UdEM);Horiouchi,S.(CIDR)Inversefunctionofmortalityasameasureoflongevityextension

• diLego,V.(VID/ÖAW)Howmanytimeshaveourlivesbeensaved?AreappraisaloftheresuscitationapproachusingHMDdata

• Zheng,H.(OSU);Cheng,S.(NYU)Asimulationstudyoftheroleofcohortforcesinmortalitypatterns

12:00–13:00LUNCHBREAK

13:00–14:30SESSIONII:Frontiersoflongevity●Chair:FranceMeslé

• Álvarez,J.-A.(SDU);Vaupel,J.W.(SDU)Centenariansurvival:Increasingorstagnating?

• Cheung,KSL.(HKU);Wang,J.(RUC);Robine,JM.(INED)Beyondamortalityplateau:afreshinquiryintotheadultlongevityandtheforceofold-agemortality

• Poulain,M.(UCLouvain);Herm,A.(TLU)ComparinglongevityandmortalitylevelsathighestageswiththehelpofHMD

• Jasilionis,D.(MPIDR);Martikainen,P.(UH);Shkolnikov,V.(MPIDR,HSE)EducationalcomponentsofnationallongevityadvancesinNordiccountries

Monday,May132|P a g e

14:30–15:00COFFEEBREAK

15:00–15:40KEYNOTETALKII●Chair:DmitriJdanov

EmilioZagheni(MPIDR)Digitaltracedatafordemographicresearch

15:40–16:40SESSIONIII:Consistencyofmortalitydata●Chair:DmitriJdanov

• Oeppen,J.(SDU)Net-migrationintheHumanMortalityDatabaseandrelateddatabases

• Noymer,A.(UCI)UsingBenford`slawtoassesslifetableensembles:HMDandtheWHOModellifetables

• Danilova,I.(MPIDR)Consistencyoflongitudinaltimeseriesincause-specificmortalityovertheICD-10period

16:40–16:50BREAK

16:50–18:00ROUNDTABLEI:TheHMDtodayandtomorrow:challengesandopportunities●

Moderator:DmitriJdanov

Discussants:JamesOeppen(SDU)FranceMeslé(INED)MichelGuillot(PennPSC/INED)SebastianKlüsener(BiB)

18:00–19:00DINNERATTHEHARNACKHAUS

19:00–20:00Postersession

Tuesday,May143|P a g e

Tuesday,May14

9:00–9:40KEYNOTETALKIII●Chair:MagaliBarbieri

FannyJanssen(PRC,UG)Theroleofsmoking,alcoholandobesityinpastandfuturemortalitylevelsandtrendsinEurope

9:40–10:20SESSIONIV:CausesofdeathanddeterminantsI●Chair:MagaliBarbieri

• Doblhammer-Reiter,G.;Fritze,T.(UniRostock)DementiamaybecometheleadingdiseaseatthetimeofdeathinGermany:probabilisticdisease-projectionsamongthedeceased

• Sasson,I.(TAU);Hayward.M.(UTAustin)“Deathsofdespair”revisited:WideningeducationaldisparitiesinUSadultlifeexpectancy,2010–2017

10:20–10:40COFFEEBREAK

10:40–11:20KEYNOTETALKIV●Chair:DomantasJasilionis

VladimirM.Shkolnikov(MPIDR,HSE)LifeexpectancyinRussia:consequencesofmortalityreversalandcomponentsofongoingimprovement

11:20–12:00SESSIONV:CausesofdeathanddeterminantsII●Chair:DomantasJasilionis

• Trias-Llimós,S.(LSHTM);Leon,DA(LSHTM,UiT)Linkingmultipleriskfactorstocardiovascularmortalityforunderstandingcountrydifferences

• Andreev,E.(HSE);Timonin,S.(HSE);Shkolnikov,V.(MPIDR,HSE)ThedramaticincreaseinHIV/AidsmortalityinRussia.Whatdovitalstatisticstellus?

12:00–13:00LUNCHBREAK

13:00–14:30SESSIONVI:Spatialinequalities●Chair:PavelGrigoriev

• Barbieri,M.(UCB,INED);Winant,C.(UCB);Dukhovnov,D.(UCB);Boe,C.(UCB)ExtendingtheHMDapproachtoregionaldatabases-anillustrationwiththeUnitedStatesMortalityDataBase(USMDB)

• Klüsener,S.(BiB);VanRaalte,A.(MPIDR);Oksuzyan,A.(MPIDR);Grigoriev,P.(MPIDR)SmallregionaldisparitiesinmortalitywithlargeregionaldisparitiesineconomicconditionsthecaseofGermany

• Bonnet,F.(PSE);D`Albis,H.(PSE)SpatialInequalityinMortalityinFranceoverthepasttwocenturies

Tuesday,May144|P a g e

14:30–14:45COFFEEBREAK

14:45–15:45SESSIONVII:Sexdifferentials●Chair:GabrieleDoblhammer-Reiter

• Booth,H.(ANU);Qi,C.(ANU);Canudas-Romo,V.(ANU)Anextendeddecompositionofchangeinthesex-gapinlifeexpectancy:elucidatingtheunderlyingmechanism

• Wang,J.(HKU);Cheung,KSL.(HKU);Robine,JM.(INED)Sexdifferenceofthecompressionofmortalityinmainlandchina-basedontheadjustedcensusdatausingbrass-logitmethod

• VanRaalte,A.(MPIDR);Aburto,JM.(MPIDR);Kashyap,R.(OX);Zarulli,V.(SUD)Sexdifferencesinlifeexpectancyandlifespandispersion:long-termpatternsandemergingcrossovers

15:45–16:00BREAK

16:00–17:00SESSIONVIII:Modellingmortalitypatterns●Chair:JimOeppen

• Németh,L.(MPIDR)Mortalitypatternatadultandolderages

• Reynolds,N.(Brown) IncreasingmortalityofwhiteAmericans,asystematicdeviationfromGompertzlaw,andatrendbreakincohorthealth

• Swanson,D.(UCR)ConstructinglifetablesfromtheKaiserPermanentesmokingstudyandapplyingtheresultstomodelsdesignedtoassessthepopulationhealthimpactofreducedrisktobaccoproducts

17:00–18:00ROUNDTABLEII:Recenttrendsandfutureoflongevity●Moderator:JacquesVallin

Discussants:VladimirM.Shkolnikov(MPIDR/HSE)Jean-MarieRobine(INED)HeatherBooth(ANU)IsaacSasson(TAU)

18:00ENDOFTHESYMPOSIUM

Monday,May135|P a g e

POSTERPRESENTATIONS(Monday,May13)PosterswillbepresentedduringtheentirefirstdayoftheSymposium

• AinhoaAlustizaGalarza(MPIDR)HumanLife-TableDatabase:dataresourceprofile

• MarkBrandenburg(BMC)NativeAmericanmortalitytimetrendsinOklahoma:Anecologicalstudyofthe45-54-year-oldagegroup(1999-2016)

• InnaDanilova(MPIDR),FranceMeslé(INED),DmitriJdanov(MPIDR),MarkétaPechholdová(VŠE),DomantasJasilionis(MPIDR),VladimirM.Shkolnikov(MPIDR),JacquesVallin(INED)TheHumanCauseofDeathDatabase

• EraldaGjika(UniTirana),OlgertaIdrizi(UniTirana),LuleBasha(UniTirana),EniDhamo(UniTirana)AnalysisoflifeexpectancyandmortalityrateinwesternBalkanregion.ProjectionsforAlbania

• OlgaGrigoriev(MPIDR)InternationalDatabaseonLongevity:dataresourceprofile

• OlgaGrigoriev(MPIDR),RembrandtScholz(BIVS),GabrieleDoblhammer(UniRostock)Mortalityofpeoplewithreducedearningcapacity:DoesitcontributetothedifferencebetweenEastandWestGermany?

• ReikoHayashi,FutoshiIshii,MotomiBeppu,YuKorekawa(allIPSS),EmikoShinohara(UTokio)ThetrendofsuddendeathinJapan

• Yu-ChiehHsu(UNDP),HeribertoTapia(UNDP)Olderpeoplefacingnewinequalities:lifeexpectancyinChile

• ElenaPapanova(HSE)Applyingthemethodofextinctgenerationsforestimatingold-agepopulationandmortalityinMoscow

• FilipeRibeiro(UEVORA)Revisitinglifetablesconstruction:Howdifferentlawscaninfluencemortalityforecasts

• DanielSchneider(MPIDR)Softwaremodule(s)toaccessandworkwithdatafromtheHumanMortalityDatabase

• AlekseiShchur(HSE)MortalitydifferentialsinRussianbiggestcitiesandtheirsurroundingterritories

• DavidSwanson(CSDE,UCR)Estimatingtheunderlyinginfantmortalityratesforsmallpopulations:AcasestudyofcountiesinEstonia

• AnneleneWengler,JankoLeddin,AlexanderRommer,ElenavonderLippe(allRKI)Redistributionofill-definedcodesinthecausesofdeathstatistics

6|P a g e

Listofinstitutionsabbreviations

ANU AustralianNationalUniversity(Canberra,Australia)BiB FederalInstituteforPopulationResearch(Wiesbaden,Germany)BIVS BerlinInstituteforComparativeSocialResearch(Germany)BMC BristolMedicalCenter(UK)Brown BrownUniversity(Providence,USA)CEER CentrodeEstudiosEconómicosRegionales(Cartagena,Colombia)CIDR CUNYInstituteforDemographicResearch(NewYork,USA)CSDE CenterforStudiesinDemography&Ecology,UniversityofWashington(Washington,USA)HKU UniversityofHongKong,MindlinkResearchCentre(HongKong)HSE NationalResearchUniversityHigherSchoolofEconomics(Moscow,Russia)INED InstitutNationald'ÉtudesDémographiques(Paris,France)IPSS NationalInstituteofPopulationandSocialSecurityResearch(Japan)LSHTM LondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine(London,UK)MPIDR MaxPlanckInstituteforDemographicResearch,(Rostock,Germany)NYU NewYorkUniversity(NewYork,USA)ÖAW AustrianAcademyofSciences(Vienna,Austria)OSU TheOhioStateUniversity(Columbus,USA)OX NuffieldCollege,UniversityofOxford(Oxford,UK)Paris1 UniversitéParis1PanthéonSorbonne(Paris,France)PennPSC PopulationStudiesCenter,UniversityofPennsylvania(Philadelphia,USA)PRC PopulationResearchCentre(Groningen,Netherlands)PSE ParisSchoolofEconomics(Paris,France)RKI RobertKochInstitute(Berlin,Germany)RUC RenminUniversityofChina(Beijing,China)SDU UniversityofSouthernDenmark(Odense,Denmark)TAU TelAvivUniversity(TelAviv,Israel)TLU TallinnUniversity(Estonia)UCB UniversityofCaliforniaBerkeley(Berkeley,USA)UCI UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine(Irvine,USA)UCLouvain UniversitéCatholiquedeLouvain(Louvain-la-Neuve,Belgium)UCR UniversityofCaliforniaRiverside(Riverside,USA)UdeM UniversitédeMontreal(Montreal,Canada)UEVORA UniversityofÉvora(Évora,Portugal)UG UniversityofGroningen(Groningen,Netherlands)UH UniversityofHelsinki(Helsinki,Finland)UiT TheArcticUniversityofNorway(Tromsø,Norway)UniRostock UniversityRostock(Rostock,Germany)UniTirana UniversityofTirana(Tirana,Albania)UNPD UnitedNationsPopulationDivision,UnitedNations(NewYork,USA)UNDP UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgrammeUTAustin UniversityofTexasatAustin(Austin,USA)UTokio UniversityofTokyo(Tokio,Japan)VID ViennaInstituteofDemography(Vienna,Austria)VŠE

UniversityofEconomicsPrague(Prague,CzechRepublic)