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Stewart et al., 2005
Recent trends:Recent trends:
Observed:Warming
Observed:Less
snowpack
Observed:Observed:Earlier Earlier snowfedsnowfedstreamflowstreamflow
Observed: Less snow/more rain
Observed: Earliergreenup dates
20 of 23 in this range
Under projected greenhouse gas increases,
all climate models yield warmer futures for the West.
Greenhouse effects1900-2100
Dettinger, 2005; Hidalgo et al, 2008
Expected changes: Temperature
Most climate projections fall within a fairly narrow range of precipitation changes in much of the West. In Northern California, "small change" is most common projection.
Expected trends:
Half models wetter, half drier
Dettinger, 2005
19 of 23 in this range
cm/m
onth
cm/m
onth
Precipitation
Enhanced deserts
Wetter poles
Net results: more severe
winter floods in at least some settings and
drier summersin most…
Changes in Sierra Nevada Outflow, 2060 – 2000
Knowles and Cayan, 2004; http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/ /meetings/agu/pdf2006/dettinger_etal_poster_AGU2006.pdf
Projected changes:
Projected changes:
Soil moisture, 2050-99 minus 1950-99(VIC land-surface hydrology model forced by downscaled CNRM global climate model)
Das et al, in prep
Projected changes:
Northern Sierra Nevada soil moisture, 1950 to 2099(VIC land-surface hydrology model forced by downscaled CNRM global climate model)
Das et al, in prep
San Francisco
Monterey
Bringing projections down to Devils Postpile
• Downscale global-scale projections to 12 km
• Run thru VIC land-surface hydrology model
Following projections courtesy of Hugo Hidalgo, Tapash Das & Dan Cayan (2008)
DEPO
See Jeton et al 1996,USGS WRIR 95-4260,For discussion of why this happens
Finally, some thoughts on the issue of cold air in
DEPO
…A few data plots from our DEPO weather station
Managing for a cold refugia is going to require info:
How does cold air drainage at DEPO work, and how will it fare under generalized warming?
•Need met data at Pass
•Need temperature transects up entry road and along river
•Need wind data at DPO and entry
•Need an analog setting with longer history
•A high-resolution weather model to crystallize the hypothesis would be very useful
The normal climate variability in the West is now being augmented with warming associated with
increases in the greenhouse effect.
MeehlMeehl et al., 2004et al., 2004
ObservedGreenhouse emissions
required
Global-average temperatures
Recent trends:
Natural conditions suffice
This global response has now been verified also at regional scales, including in the hydrology of the western US (Barnett et al., Science, 2008)
IPCC4, WG1, TSU, 2007, Fig. TS-25
Recent trends:
Historical & projected temperatures