Red Deer River near Drumheller – June 2005Red Deer River near Drumheller – June 2005

Alberta Environment’sAlberta Environment’sRiver Forecast CentreRiver Forecast Centre

Presentation to the Presentation to the Alberta Broadcasters Alberta Broadcasters Public Alerting Recognition SymposiumPublic Alerting Recognition Symposium

Red Deer, AlbertaRed Deer, AlbertaJanuary 14, 2008January 14, 2008

Scott Vatcher, P.Eng. Scott Vatcher, P.Eng. Forecaster, Flow ForecastingForecaster, Flow Forecasting

What River Forecasting DoesWhat River Forecasting Does

1.1. Real-time monitoring and reportingReal-time monitoring and reporting

2.2. Water Management Water Management

3.3. Infrastructure Management Infrastructure Management

4.4. Water Supply ForecastingWater Supply Forecasting

5.5. Flood ForecastingFlood Forecasting

1. What do we monitor and report?1. What do we monitor and report?

Real-time dataReal-time data

• Stream levels and flowsStream levels and flows

• Lake and reservoir levelsLake and reservoir levels

• PrecipitationPrecipitation

• SnowpackSnowpack

• Temperature, wind, humidityTemperature, wind, humidity

• Water qualityWater quality

Real-time Real-time Hydrometric StationsHydrometric Stations

• Over Over 350 350 currentlycurrently

• Stream, lake, reservoir levelsStream, lake, reservoir levels

• Satellite/phone linksSatellite/phone links

Real-time Meteorological Stations

~ 218 Federal and Provincial

Hourly Data• Precipitation

• Temperature

• Relative humidity

• Wind speed

ALBERTA

NORTH WEST TERRITORIES

SASK

ATC

HEW

AN

ALBE

RTA

ALBE

RTA

River

River

Bow

River

Provost

Camrose

Stettler

High Level

Jasper

Banff

Lesser Slave Lake

ColdLake

Athabasca

Lake

Grande Prairie

Peace River

Red Deer

Edmonton

Fort McMurray

Medicine Hat

Calgary

Lethbridge

Forestry Meteorological Stations

• ~ 190 stations

• Mostly in north

• Most report 2x-daily

• Some report 1x-daily

Snow Course Sites

71 Plains

46 Mountain

U. S. A.

ColdLake

STETTLERPROVOST

CAMROSEJASPER

BANFF

River

Deer

RiverMilk

River

RiverNorth

Red

Saskatchewan

Battle

Lloydminster

Medicine Hat

Lethbridge

Red Deer

Calgary

Edmonton

SUNSHINE VILLAGE

LITTLE ELBOW

THREE ISLE LAKE MT. ODLUM III

TWIN LAKES

PADDLE RIVER HEADWATERS

LIMESTONE

AKAMINA

FLATTOP MANY GLACIER

SOUTH RACE HORSE

GARDINER HEADWATERS

LOST CREEK

SKOKI MOUNTAIN

Snow Pillows

• 13 Mountain Sites

(new site at South Esk)

• 2 Plains Area SitesUSES

• Snow-on-ground

• Snow / Rain indicators

• Melt rates

Waterton ReservoirWaterton Reservoir

• In-stream flow needsIn-stream flow needs (Fish, water intakes, ferry crossings)(Fish, water intakes, ferry crossings)

• Apportionment (sharing) agreementsApportionment (sharing) agreements Prairie Provinces, U.S.Prairie Provinces, U.S. Natural FlowsNatural Flows

• License requirementsLicense requirements

• Water QualityWater Quality

• QA/QC of real-time dataQA/QC of real-time data

Provide information to support in real-time:Provide information to support in real-time:

2. Water Management2. Water Management

3. Infrastructure Management3. Infrastructure Management ~$5.2 Billion of provincial water infrastructure in Alberta~$5.2 Billion of provincial water infrastructure in Alberta Develop flood operating procedures and provide operational advice Develop flood operating procedures and provide operational advice

to dam operatorsto dam operators– Conduct annual flood drills for provincially owned reservoirsConduct annual flood drills for provincially owned reservoirs– Provide cross-check of operations during floodsProvide cross-check of operations during floods– Coordinate with Trans Alta UtilitiesCoordinate with Trans Alta Utilities

Provide technical resources and secondary notification of potential Provide technical resources and secondary notification of potential dam emergencies – coordinated with Emergency Management dam emergencies – coordinated with Emergency Management AlbertaAlberta

Provide forecasts forProvide forecasts for– FloodsFloods– Water qualityWater quality– Water supplyWater supply– Reservoir InflowsReservoir Inflows– Natural flowsNatural flows

Oldman River DamOldman River Dam

Photos by Wally ChinnPhotos by Wally Chinn

08-200108-2001

09-200209-2002

• Current conditions reporting assesses snowpack, Current conditions reporting assesses snowpack, precipitation and soil moisture conditions and their precipitation and soil moisture conditions and their impact for runoff potential impact for runoff potential

• Runoff forecasts and current conditions are Runoff forecasts and current conditions are updated monthly and published in the Water updated monthly and published in the Water Supply Outlook for Alberta (20 forecast points)Supply Outlook for Alberta (20 forecast points)

• Runoff forecast used by others to plan allotment of Runoff forecast used by others to plan allotment of reservoir water supplies for irrigation, reservoir water supplies for irrigation, hydroelectric, and community & municipal hydroelectric, and community & municipal purposes and reservoir operationspurposes and reservoir operations

Chin Reservoir

4. Water Supply Forecasting4. Water Supply Forecasting

5. Flood Forecasting5. Flood Forecasting

Forecast floods and flows Forecast floods and flows – Issue Advisory and WarningsIssue Advisory and Warnings

» High Streamflow AdvisoriesHigh Streamflow Advisories

» Flood WatchesFlood Watches

» Flood WarningsFlood Warnings

Assist Alberta Environment’s River Engineering in issuing advisories Assist Alberta Environment’s River Engineering in issuing advisories and warnings for ice and ice jamsand warnings for ice and ice jams

High River – June 2005

Why is Forecasting Necessary?Why is Forecasting Necessary?

• Potential to reduce Flood Damage by Flood AvoidancePotential to reduce Flood Damage by Flood Avoidance • 6666 Communities Identified having a Flood Risk Communities Identified having a Flood Risk

• 3636 of of 6666 have forecast procedures developed have forecast procedures developed

• Potential to reduce Flood Peaks using Reservoir StoragePotential to reduce Flood Peaks using Reservoir Storage• 55 Major Government & Major Government & 1010 Major Private Reservoirs located upstream of Major Private Reservoirs located upstream of

populated centres with potential for flood attenuationpopulated centres with potential for flood attenuation

North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton – July 1986

Oldman River at Lethbridge – June 2005Oldman River at Lethbridge – June 2005

• Rapid Response Time of Mountain / Foothill StreamsRapid Response Time of Mountain / Foothill Streams

• Rapid Response “Rapid Response “FLASH FLOODS”FLASH FLOODS” in in

Southern Alberta and Swan HillsSouthern Alberta and Swan Hills

• Response time much longer in Northern AlbertaResponse time much longer in Northern Alberta

Why is Forecasting Necessary?Why is Forecasting Necessary?

Variety of Flood ConditionsVariety of Flood Conditions

SnowmeltSnowmelt Plains - March - AprilPlains - March - April

• Only smaller streams affected (Paddle, Battle, Vermilion, etc)Only smaller streams affected (Paddle, Battle, Vermilion, etc)• Ice jamsIce jams

Mountains - May - JulyMountains - May - July• No flooding of major rivers by mountain snowmelt aloneNo flooding of major rivers by mountain snowmelt alone

RainfallRainfall• Affects all rivers in AlbertaAffects all rivers in Alberta• Flooding along major rivers is caused by heavy rainfall or heavy rainfall Flooding along major rivers is caused by heavy rainfall or heavy rainfall

during mountain snowmeltduring mountain snowmelt

Importance of Weather ForecastingImportance of Weather Forecasting Lead time prior to onset of stormLead time prior to onset of storm

– Quick response times of many riversQuick response times of many rivers Identify major storm patternsIdentify major storm patterns

– Storms can cover large area of the ProvinceStorms can cover large area of the Province Partnerships with Partnerships with Meteorological Service of Meteorological Service of

CanadaCanada, and , and Alberta Sustainable Resource Alberta Sustainable Resource DevelopmentDevelopment (Fire Weather), who provide (Fire Weather), who provide weather forecastsweather forecasts

Satellite and radar imagery used to track weather Satellite and radar imagery used to track weather systemssystems

Department of Environment – Lead AgencyDepartment of Environment – Lead Agency– Flow ForecastingFlow Forecasting

» Issuing of flood related advisories and warningsIssuing of flood related advisories and warnings» Provide information/forecasts about the floodsProvide information/forecasts about the floods» Coordinate all information from government and non-government agencies Coordinate all information from government and non-government agencies

and provide value added information to all stakeholders, including the publicand provide value added information to all stakeholders, including the public» Coordinate reservoir operations to provide early warning and forecasts for Coordinate reservoir operations to provide early warning and forecasts for

communitiescommunities

– Water OperationsWater Operations» Operate the $5.2 billion of infrastructure in the provinceOperate the $5.2 billion of infrastructure in the province

Disaster Services ActDisaster Services Act– Municipalities are tasked with the due care and safety of their Municipalities are tasked with the due care and safety of their

citizens – response on the groundcitizens – response on the ground» When overwhelmed in an emergency, provincial help is available through When overwhelmed in an emergency, provincial help is available through

Emergency Management AlbertaEmergency Management Alberta

Provincial Responsibilities for FloodsProvincial Responsibilities for Floods

River ForecastingRiver Forecasting

Weather Weather Info:Info:MSCMSCASRDASRD

Emergency Emergency Management Management

AlbertaAlberta

Field Staff:Field Staff:Water Survey of Water Survey of Canada/AENVCanada/AENV

AENV Water AENV Water OperationsOperations

Other Other Government Government and non-govt and non-govt

AgenciesAgencies

Municipalities Municipalities and other and other

responders responders (RCMP) (RCMP)

Data Data Management Management and Systemsand Systems

MediaMedia

AENV AENV CommunicationsCommunications

PublicPublic

Saskatchewan Saskatchewan Watershed Watershed AuthorityAuthority

AlertsAlertsIf a storm is forecast to cause major changes in streamflow, If a storm is forecast to cause major changes in streamflow, we can issue up to 3 levels of alerts:we can issue up to 3 levels of alerts:

High Streamflow AdvisoryHigh Streamflow Advisory Flood WatchFlood Watch

Paddle River - 2001 Paddle River - 2001

Flood WarningFlood Warning

Red Deer River at Drumheller – June 2005

A A High Streamflow Advisory High Streamflow Advisory means that stream means that stream levels are rising or expected to rise rapidly and no levels are rising or expected to rise rapidly and no major flooding is expected. Minor flooding in major flooding is expected. Minor flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Anyone situated close low-lying areas is possible. Anyone situated close to the streams affected (campers, fishermen, to the streams affected (campers, fishermen, boaters, and the general public) is advised to be boaters, and the general public) is advised to be cautious of the rising levelscautious of the rising levels..

A A Flood WatchFlood Watch means that stream levels are rising means that stream levels are rising and will approach and may exceed bank full. and will approach and may exceed bank full. Flooding of areas adjacent to these streams may Flooding of areas adjacent to these streams may occur. Anyone situated close to these streams is occur. Anyone situated close to these streams is advised to take appropriate precautionary measures.advised to take appropriate precautionary measures.

A A Flood WarningFlood Warning means that rising river levels will means that rising river levels will result in flooding of areas adjacent to the streams result in flooding of areas adjacent to the streams affected. Anyone situated close to the river should affected. Anyone situated close to the river should take appropriate measures to avoid flood damage.take appropriate measures to avoid flood damage.

Spring Runoff AdvisorySpring Runoff Advisory

A A Spring Runoff AdvisorySpring Runoff Advisory means that stream levels are rising or means that stream levels are rising or expected to rise due to snowmelt and expected to rise due to snowmelt and no major floodingno major flooding is is expected. Minor flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Anyone expected. Minor flooding in low-lying areas is possible. Anyone situated close to the streams affected (property owners and the situated close to the streams affected (property owners and the general public) is advised to be cautious of the rising levels.general public) is advised to be cautious of the rising levels.

Medicine River - 1999

What

When

Where

Why

Next Update

Contacts

Definitions

Forecaster’s Forecaster’s CommentsComments

ImpactImpact: Gave : Gave Forecasters an Forecasters an opportunity to put out opportunity to put out more information – more information – restricted to one page restricted to one page on faxon fax

North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton – June 2005North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton – June 2005

Communicating Communicating Flood Related InformationFlood Related Information

• FAX FAX • Two FAX Broadcast Systems - can notify 400 clients in 30 minutesTwo FAX Broadcast Systems - can notify 400 clients in 30 minutes

• TELEPHONETELEPHONE• Automated notification system – operational since the 2004 seasonAutomated notification system – operational since the 2004 season

• RADIO AND TELEVISION• Emergency Public Warning System

• INTERNETINTERNET http://www3.gov.ab.ca/env/water/ws/advisories/ http://www3.gov.ab.ca/env/water/ws/advisories/

• Numerous data and information products (Forecaster’s Comments) availableNumerous data and information products (Forecaster’s Comments) available

• IVR (Interactive Telephone Response)

When They Are NotifiedWhen They Are NotifiedStage 1 - Anticipation Of Major StormStage 1 - Anticipation Of Major Storm

• Verify Weather ForecastsVerify Weather Forecasts• Forecasting Staff - Allocate Manpower for Shift (7x24 – two 12 hour shifts Forecasting Staff - Allocate Manpower for Shift (7x24 – two 12 hour shifts

required)required)• Notify Dam OperatorsNotify Dam Operators• Usually 12 - 48 Hours Prior to Start of StormUsually 12 - 48 Hours Prior to Start of Storm• Information in Forecaster’s CommentsInformation in Forecaster’s Comments

Stage 3 - Flood EmergencyStage 3 - Flood Emergency• Quantitative Forecasts (Time and Stage of peak)Quantitative Forecasts (Time and Stage of peak)• Alert as in Stage 2Alert as in Stage 2

Stage 2 - Heavy Rainfall Warning Issued or High Streamflow Stage 2 - Heavy Rainfall Warning Issued or High Streamflow SituationSituation

•Assess Situation Identify Problem AreasAssess Situation Identify Problem Areas•Notify Other Water Managers Notify Other Water Managers •Qualitative ForecastsQualitative Forecasts•Update Dam Operators, Water ManagersUpdate Dam Operators, Water Managers•Alert Local Authorities, Media (Advisory)Alert Local Authorities, Media (Advisory)

Questions?Questions?

Sundre – June 2005Sundre – June 2005

June 2005 Flood EventsJune 2005 Flood Events

Bearberry Creek at Sundre – June 2005Bearberry Creek at Sundre – June 2005

June 2005 Flood EventsJune 2005 Flood Events

In June 2005, three major flood events In June 2005, three major flood events occurred in a short period of timeoccurred in a short period of time

The flood event covered a large geographic The flood event covered a large geographic areaarea

In many areas, these events are the worst In many areas, these events are the worst floods on recordfloods on record

Red Deer River upstream of Red Deer – June 2005Red Deer River upstream of Red Deer – June 2005

Chronology of Key Events – Red DeerChronology of Key Events – Red DeerWednesday, June 15Wednesday, June 15

1:30 pm1:30 pm Call to Dickson Dam to inform of potential rain event Call to Dickson Dam to inform of potential rain event over the weekendover the weekend

3:30 pm3:30 pm Dickson Dam begins to pre-release from reservoirDickson Dam begins to pre-release from reservoir

Thursday, June 16Thursday, June 16

9:10 am9:10 am High Streamflow Advisory issued for downstream of High Streamflow Advisory issued for downstream of Dickson Dam, including Red Deer and DrumhellerDickson Dam, including Red Deer and Drumheller

9:40 am 9:40 am Calls to Red Deer, Drumheller and other local Calls to Red Deer, Drumheller and other local municipalities about possibility of large flows over the municipalities about possibility of large flows over the weekendweekend

1:00 pm1:00 pm Emergency Management Alberta notified of potential Emergency Management Alberta notified of potential heavy rain event for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer heavy rain event for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basinsRiver basins

Friday, June 17Friday, June 17

9:45 am9:45 am Flood Watch issued for streams and rivers upstream of Dickson Dam, Flood Watch issued for streams and rivers upstream of Dickson Dam, including the mainstem of the Red Deer – also included Little Red Deer including the mainstem of the Red Deer – also included Little Red Deer RiverRiver

~12:00 pm~12:00 pm Precipitation begins in headwaters of Red Deer River basinPrecipitation begins in headwaters of Red Deer River basin

Saturday, June 18Saturday, June 18

8:10 am8:10 am Flood Warning issued for Red Deer River upstream of Dickson Dam Flood Warning issued for Red Deer River upstream of Dickson Dam (not including Sundre) and Little Red Deer River (not including Sundre) and Little Red Deer River

9:20 am9:20 am Flood Warning issued for Sundre and for James and Raven Rivers – Flood Warning issued for Sundre and for James and Raven Rivers – Broadcast on Emergency Public Warning SystemBroadcast on Emergency Public Warning System

12:00 pm12:00 pm Red Deer, Drumheller and other local municipalities advised of major Red Deer, Drumheller and other local municipalities advised of major flood event to affect towns – preliminary forecasts given flood event to affect towns – preliminary forecasts given

12:30 pm12:30 pm EMA advised of situation to affect Red Deer and DrumhellerEMA advised of situation to affect Red Deer and Drumheller

12:45 pm12:45 pm Flood Warning issued for Red Deer River downstream of Dickson Dam, Flood Warning issued for Red Deer River downstream of Dickson Dam, including Red Deer and Drumhellerincluding Red Deer and Drumheller

2:00 pm2:00 pm Water levels in Dickson Dam begin to rise Water levels in Dickson Dam begin to rise

~2:30 pm~2:30 pm RFC notified by WSC of measurement at Little Red Deer River near RFC notified by WSC of measurement at Little Red Deer River near Water Valley of 568 m³/sWater Valley of 568 m³/s

Chronology of Key Events – Red DeerChronology of Key Events – Red Deer

Alberta June 2005 Floods by the numbersAlberta June 2005 Floods by the numbers Number of storm events: Number of storm events: 44 Number of flood events: Number of flood events: 33 Number of times High River and Okotoks flooded in 22 days: Number of times High River and Okotoks flooded in 22 days: 33 Number of years to the day from the last flood in High River to Number of years to the day from the last flood in High River to

the first one this year: the first one this year: 1010 Number of stations recording flood of record: Number of stations recording flood of record: 2121 Number of communities declaring local states of emergency: Number of communities declaring local states of emergency: 2929 Highest flow recorded: Highest flow recorded: 3,8323,832 m m33/s /s

– South Saskatchewan River at Medicine HatSouth Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat Number of provinces flooded as a result of second event: Number of provinces flooded as a result of second event: 33

– Alberta, Saskatchewan and ManitobaAlberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba

Preliminary damage estimate: $700 millionPreliminary damage estimate: $700 million

Number of advisories issued by River Forecasting: Number of advisories issued by River Forecasting: 4444

Number of phone calls to/from River Forecasting: Number of phone calls to/from River Forecasting: 2,5662,566

Number of faxes sent by River Forecasting: Number of faxes sent by River Forecasting: 26,43626,436

Number of web hits to flood information: Number of web hits to flood information: 774,310774,310– Previous High: 179,266 - June 2002Previous High: 179,266 - June 2002– Most web hits in one day: 98,310 - June 7, 2005Most web hits in one day: 98,310 - June 7, 2005

Number of gauge site visits by Water Survey of Canada and AENV field staff: Number of gauge site visits by Water Survey of Canada and AENV field staff: 352352 Number of gauge measurements conducted by WSC and AENV field staff in June: Number of gauge measurements conducted by WSC and AENV field staff in June:

204204

Number of days that River Forecasting was on 7x24: Number of days that River Forecasting was on 7x24: 2222 Number of overtime hours worked by River Forecasting, Data Management and Number of overtime hours worked by River Forecasting, Data Management and

System Support: System Support: 1,5531,553 Number of times Emergency Public Warning System used by River Forecasting:Number of times Emergency Public Warning System used by River Forecasting: 7 7

Alberta June 2005 Floods by the numbersAlberta June 2005 Floods by the numbers