Reducing greenhouse gas IN THIS ISSUE emissions: The ... · emissions: The carbon tax option discussion paper ... study provides ... how tax revenues would be appor-tioned between

VOLUME 17 NUMBER 1 www.erc.uct.ac.za MARCH 2011

IN THIS ISSUEReducing greenhouse gasemissions: The carbon tax optiondiscussion paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Report on 2010 Energy Modelling and Analysis courseheld at ERC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Measuring the rebound effect ofenergy efficiency initiatives for thefuture. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Our energy future . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Mayor urges Capetonians to bringdown city’s carbon footprint . . . . 7City’s Annual Report for 2009/10shows infrastructure-led growth . 9Climate change: study providesgreenhouse-gas emissions for 100 cities in 33 nations . . . . . . . 10The dilemma of climate infor-mation for smallholder farmers . 11100% renewables by WWF . . . 13SOLTRAIN initiatives . . . . . . . . 14Maximum energy savings all year round for green school . . . 15Smart and Just Grids:Opportunities for sub-SaharanAfrica publication. . . . . . . . . . . . 16Neglected energy source can fuel giant leap forward indeveloping nations . . . . . . . . . . 16Renewable energy – a moreviable option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Introducing Research Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18WinDABA 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Doug Banks Renewable Energy Vision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19CSP tipped to emerge as domin-ant solar technology in MENA . 20Meeting MENA’s energy needs:Has the solar boom begun? . . . 20Carbon markets and climate finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Solar Kits project. . . . . . . . . . . . 21Energy and climate changecourse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Energy events 2011 . . . . . . . . . 23

Sponsored by the Departmentof Science & Technology

Reducing greenhouse gasemissions: The carbon taxoption discussion paper

INTRODUCTION The Energy Research Centre(ERC), University of CapeTown, welcomed the publica-

tion of the Discussion Paper on aCarbon Tax Option (National Treas-ury 2010), and expressed its appreci-ation to National Treasury for theopportunity to comment in February.The ERC had the following commentsto make.Level of a carbon tax Conceptually, the tax level should beset in order to achieve the desiredoutcome, in this case an environmen-tal goal of limiting GHG emissions, orreducing them relative to a growthtrajectory. The tax level should giveeffect to the ‘peak, plateau anddecline’ trajectory agreed by Cabinetin 2008 and included as the basis ofSouth Africa’s international commit-ment to act, as submitted to theUNFCCC in January 2010 (RSA2010). • The discussion document con-

cludes (p. 59): ‘It would appearthat a tax of R75 per ton of CO2,with an increase to about R200per ton CO2 (at 2005 prices) wouldbe both feasible and appropriateto achieve the desired behaviour-al changes and emissions-reduc-tion targets’.

• The timing of the increase in taxrate should be specified, to pro-vide a clear price path and there-fore a longer signal.

• The relationship to the emissionslevel needs to be monitored,hence we suggest an adjustmentmechanism.

• Based on various analyses of car-bon taxes (Kearney 2008; Pauw2007; Winkler 2007; Winkler &Marquard 2009), we are not con-vinced that these tax levels areconsistent with a trajectory thatwould see our country’s GHGemissions ‘peak, plateau anddecline’. The rationale of relating the tax

level to marginal external damagecosts (p. 6) does emerge from the lit-erature (Goldblatt 2010; Pearce1991). This approach is commonlyapplied to other environmental exter-nalities, such as local forms of air pol-lution, but is more difficult to apply toGHGs, since these are global pollu-tants. Calculation of damage coststhus needs to be done globally, andthe uncertainties are significant. Inaddition, the marginal damage costalso rises with the concentration ofGHGs in the atmosphere. Thus:• the derivation of a range of mar-

ginal external costs ‘in the regionof $5-30 per ton of CO2’ is notclear. The overview refers to Table4 on p 23, but that table containsa much wider range, from lessthan $1 to $ 85.

• If this approach was followed, acarbon tax policy might then refermore extensively (than in para 31)to the social cost of carbon, socialimpacts from localised environ-mental pollution, impacts onhealth, potential livelihood shiftsdue to climate variability. Given the methodological difficul-

ty of determining marginal damagecosts, methodologically, would a bet-ter approach not be to set the carbon

2 Energy Management News

tax at the marginal cost of mitigation,given a specific set of national goals?This would be based on the least-costestimate for achieving a specific set ofeconomy-wide mitigation goals, there-by also providing a basis to engagemulti-laterally the issue of fair sharingof mitigation burden and costs. A morepractical approach is suggested, set-ting the tax rate in relation to a desiredemissions level, i.e. the one politicallyagreed as above. The question of thetax level then becomes one of incen-tives – at what level would firms andconsumers switch to lower-carbonoptions? This should be consideredfrom two points of view – from an econ-omy-wide point of view (which capturescomplex economic interactions), andfrom a technology investment point ofview. There are also some sectors ofthe economy, which are expected to beunresponsive to a tax, and this needsto be factored in. Evidence from energymodelling for the LTMS suggests thatthere is a significant response from theenergy system at a tax level of aroundR150-R200 (Hughes et al. 2007; Win-kler 2007). Using the recent cost esti-mates for new power plants from theIRP suggests that the differencebetween new coal plants and low-car-bon technologies is around 20-40c/kWh, which equates to a tax of R200-R400 per ton of CO2.Adjustment mechanism The discussion paper makes a veryimportant point on phasing on p. 6:‘Although a carbon tax would not set afixed quantitative limit for carbon emis-sions over the short term, a tax set atan appropriate level and phased in overtime would provide a strong price signalto both producers and consumers tochange their behaviour over the medi-um to long term.’

Treasury and government shouldconsider an adjustment mechanism(Winkler & Marquard 2009) that wouldinduce a response from the economythat conforms to the ‘peak, plateau anddecline’ trajectory as specified by SouthAfrica (RSA 2010):• ‘Price discovery’, or more precisely

the discovery of a tax rate consis-tent with emissions levelling off at550 Mt CO2-eq per year between2020 and 2025; and

• Adjusting the tax level (up or down)over time, if emissions exceed a setpercentage (say 5%) below orabove the ‘peak, plateau anddecline’ trajectory of South Africa’s

GHG emissions, respectively (Win-kler & Marquard 2011).

Use of tax revenues We concur that good public financepractice does not ‘support the full ear-marking of specific revenue streams’(p. 8). Treasury is taking due care notto complicate the budgetary process.On-budget allocation of revenues mightbe a better option, with funds beingchannelled towards projects focusedon climate change mitigation. However,clarity would need to be provided onhow tax revenues would be appor-tioned between tax shifting, limited ear-marking and revenues flowing to thegovernment’s coffers.

More information needs to be pro-vided in section 8 regarding the recy-cling of revenues through tax shifting.Details of where tax reductions will bepursued should be made available, butnot necessarily the magnitude of thereductions. Some areas have beenaddressed (p.7 on free services, seealso next section).Protecting the poor The approach of designing the tax toinclude ‘compensating measures tominimise adverse impacts on lowincome households’ (p. 4) is stronglysupported. The revenue streams froma carbon tax should be allocated to on-budget programmes, including theideas for ‘developmental programmes– from reducing distortionary taxessuch as payroll taxes, to targeted roll-out of free basic services such as elec-tricity and water to poor households, tohigher transfers to low- and middle-income households’ (p. 8). This issound design for mitigation in the con-text of poverty and development. Thesupport programmes should seek toachieve the developmental goals in themost locally sustainable manner possi-ble.

Both protection of the poor fromincreased costs and promoting envi-ronmental outcomes should be done inaccordance with sound public financepractice. We support the notionadvanced in the paper of ‘partial ‘on-budget’ earmarking of some revenuefor specific (e.g. environmental orsocial) purposes’ (p. 8-9). Conflictbetween the commitment to the poorand resistance to earmarking of money(p. 50)

The final policy might further speci-fy how government will off-set the impli-cations of the tax on the poor. What

developmental programmes (p. 7-8)might to considered. One option thatemerges from our work on energypoverty would be an increased andextended poverty tariff: from 50 kWh to100 kWh; other fuels as well LPG(DME 2003; Gaunt 2005; Howells et al.2006; Mapako & Prasad 2005;Mavhungu 2000; UCT 2002). This sup-ports the notion identified on page 7 ofthe discussion document. Furtheranalysis is needed of householdexpenditure patterns and the potentialimpact of increases of carbon or ener-gy prices (but see the note on IRP2010showing increases due to non-carbonfactors, in the next section). Section 8of the discussion document might thencomprehensively cover all the potentialareas where carbon tax revenues couldbe channelled. Competitiveness for industries A range of policy options should beexplored. The tax rate should be set inrelation to the environmental outcome,as already argued. The particular situa-tion of energy-intensive industriesshould have specific solutions (Winkler,Jooste & Marquard 2010a), rather thanstarting at a low tax rate to accommo-date. The latter approach would becontrary to the purpose of the tax, toreduce GHG emissions.

The increase in the average elec-tricity prices which the country is cur-rently undergoing, and which will con-tinue for around a decade, will notprimarily be due to a shift to moreexpensive low-carbon generationoptions, but because the electricityprice is currently below long-run mar-ginal cost for historical reasons.IRP2010 (DoE 2010) shows that theelectricity price will more than doubleunder any scenario, including a coal-intensive scenario utilizing the cheap-est supply options, from around 40 c /kWh to over 100 c / kWh. The differ-ence between various policy cases(with the exception of EM3.0) is small.The policy cases are similar to the ref-erence case, even when they includesignificant limitation on GHG emissionsin the electricity supply sector.

Sectoral exemptions are a possibil-ity, but as the paper states, may lead toinefficiencies in abatement (p. 8). Itmay be the case that specific sectorsare relatively inflexible in the short tomedium term. This could have variousreasons, including lack of technologyoptions to switch to and greater levelsof sunk investments. While such sec-

Energy Management News 3

tors may warrant approaches struc-tured to their circumstances, anyexemptions or special dispensationsshould only be introduced if a mitigationplan, benchmarked against internation-al best practice, is in place for the spe-cific sector. No new installations shouldhave any kind of exemption, since thiswould undermine the rationale for thetax, which is at least partially to incen-tivise investment in low-carbon technol-ogy (Winkler et al. 2010a).

One possible complication asregards the point of imposition of thetax is the regulatory system which setprices in the energy sector. The regula-tory system that prices liquid fuelswould currently prevent some refineriesfrom passing on the tax to consumers,but not others. This is a complex andparticular problem that should beaddressed as part of a) an overall miti-gation plan with specific sectoral com-ponents, and b) as part of a review ofliquid fuel regulation as a whole.

Revenues from the general carbontax should support programmes thatpromote efficiency and diversification inenergy- and emissions-intensive sec-tors, towards a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society. Anyfunding of such programmes through atax should also take into account thesupport that some sectors havereceived from government in the past,and the real impact that such measuresare likely to have on the profitability ofthe sectors concerned.

Rather than supporting energy-intensive industries (e.g. through theDevelopmental Electricity Pricing Pro-gramme), incentives provided by gov-ernment should consistently be infavour of climate-friendly technologies,systems and programmes. One exam-ple would be to fund DSM / energy effi-ciency activities, another would befunding the Renewable Energy Feed-inTariff (REFiT).Border tax adjustments The issue of border tax adjustments(BTAs) is dealt with together with com-petitiveness. The two are clearly relat-ed, but we suggest treating them dis-tinctly, as BTAs are fundamentally aninternational trade issue. South Africa’sposition in the climate negotiations hasbeen unambiguously opposed to theimposition of border adjustment meas-ures (taxes or otherwise) by the US orEU.

Carbon tax and cap-and-trade This document deals with carbontaxes, whereas another will outlineemissions trading. There are the twomajor options in the literature (Ander-son 2008) and have also been com-pared for the South African context(G:enesis 2010; Goldblatt 2010; Win-kler & Marquard 2010). We held aninternational conference at UCT on thebroad concept of ‘putting a price oncarbon’ (Winkler, Marquard & Jooste2010b) and papers on these issueshave been published in Climate Policy.

Based on our analysis and readingof the literature, our view is that theinstruments are not mutually exclusive.We know of no emissions tradingscheme that covers an entire economy,many cover large installations – and acarbon tax might cover the rest. Cer-tainly the option in the current discus-sion document, a carbon tax, has agreat advantage in ease of administra-tion. Yet a carbon tax will tend to bepassed on, where that is possible, sothat the burden may not rest with largeemitters within our economy. Theremay be a case for regulation of some ofthe trace gases with high global warm-ing potentials, e.g. HCFCs and otherspecies. Emissions trading retains akey advantage – that the cap givesgreater certainty of the quantity of GHGemissions, a non-trivial consideration inthis context.

From an international perspective, itseems at this point that the EU-ETS willcontinue and that other countries mayadopt emissions trading (Australia,maybe China and others). Emissionstrading is likely to continue regardlessof when a new climate treaty is agreed.One scenario for reducing fragmenta-tion in the climate regime is that carbontrading systems will be increasinglylinked. Other things being equal, itwould be simpler to join a South AfricanETS to other ETS’es than a tax. Suchlinkages would also address one of themost compelling critiques of trading,namely that South Africa has too fewlarge players for a liquid market. Oneoption requiring further exploration is aregional approach, within SADC or theSouthern African Power Pool.

We look forward to reading theoption document on emissions trading,to be released in 2011, including ‘theeconomics, design and practicality ofan emissions trading scheme’ (p.10).

All things considered, our view isthat Treasury should proceed withimplementing a carbon tax, while not

foreclosing the option of emissionstrading. The carbon tax should build oninitial measures (e.g. the 2 c/kWh levyon non-renewable energy for electricitygeneration). This would allow theprocess of price discovery to begin,adjusting over time in line with theobjective –reducing GHG emissions. COMMENTS ON DETAILED ISSUES On Page 4 of the Discussion Paper, it ismentioned ‘0.2 °C per decade’ for thelast 50 years would be 1 °C from 1960to 2010. The IPCC estimates about 0.7°C (±0.2 °C) for the 20th century. Inaddition the ‘2-5 °C’ estimate is ques-tioned. The IPCC AR4 did work onprobability distribution functions for cli-mate sensitivity, i.e. the temperatureresponse to a doubling of atmosphericCO2, with a range but best estimate of3°C.

On Page 6, it is true that the EUETS ‘experienced significant pricevolatility’ in its first phase. The reasonswere not only free allowances and rela-tively lax targets, however, but also lackof information. A major downwardadjustment in carbon price occurredwhen verified information becameavailable, and the market expectationshad been higher. The information prob-lem is not unique to emissions trading;good information is essential for a car-bon tax (and indeed regulatoryapproaches) as well.

On Page 16, it is mentioned thatSouth Africa is the 12th largest CO2emitter – this is not accurate. In 2005,South Africa is the 19th largest emitterof CO2 without LULUCF emissions, the42nd largest emitter per capita. With allGHGs considered, including LULUCFemissions and other gases, in 2005,South Africa ranks 23rd in terms of totalCO2-equivalent emissions, and 61st interms of emissions per capita. By com-parison to a world average of 6.7tons/cap, South Africa’s emissionswere 9 tons/cap in 2005. South Africa’semissions are high compared to othermiddle-income countries.

On Page 20 in the section 4.1 and4.2 on externalities – as the paperpoints out, the external cost of carbonemissions is a difficult basis on which toset a carbon price. First, this is an inter-national price, second, the price wouldvary considerably according to themethodology (both for damage assess-ment /cost of adaptation, the discountrate and the period), and thirdly, thecost of a marginal ton of carbon wouldincrease significantly at different levels


of concentration since damage is notlinear to concentration. Therefore, thebasis for policy should probably be aspecific emissions pathway, and theprice should be set according to a mar-ginal abatement cost, with an adjust-ment mechanism of some kind to cor-rect errors in the setting of the price.

On Page 32 in paragraphs 73 and74 – this is likely to be very complexespecially given Sasol. This is easilysimplified: 1) tax the carbon going intothe plant, including refinery furnacefuel. 2) exempt carbon going out asnon-energy products (e.g. petrochemi-cals). This would capture all the carbonfrom the original feedstock, as well asthe carbon which is going to be burneddownstream – e.g. petrol. The implica-tion for the petrol price will be that thecarbon content of the petrol will haveeffectively been taxed. The carbon taxon refinery fuel combustion will havebeen paid by the refinery, regardless ofwhether it comes from the feedstock orfrom outside. The only tricky point toaddress is the price regulation of liquidfuels in South Africa. A mechanismwould have to be introduced to allowliquid fuels producers to recover the taxfrom consumers. If this was not passedon, then there would be no incentive tochange consumer behaviour. Thisposes the problem of allocating therefinery emissions to each unit of fuel,and also the problem of the differencebetween Sasol and refineries. Sasol’semissions are strikingly higher thanthose of conventional refineries per unitof output, but the liquid fuels systemsdoes not allow for differentiation. This isnot a trivial question and the solutionwould involve strong lobbying from theindustry, which would likely result in asignificant liquid fuels price increase, ifthe current system of regulation wasused as a basis for this.REFERENCESAnderson, M S (2008). Environmental and

economic implications of taxing andtrading carbon: Some European experi-ences. J E Milne (Ed). The reality of car-bon taxes in the 21st century. Vermont,Environmental Tax Policy Institute: 61-87.

DME (Department of Minerals & Energy)(2003). Electricity basic services sup-port tariff (free basic electricity) for theRepublic of South Africa. GovernmentGazette, Vol. 457 no. 25088. Pretoria,Republic of South Africa. www.info.gov.za/gazette/notices/2003/25088.pdf.

DoE (Department of Energy) (2010). DraftIntegrated Resource Plan for electricity.

Revision 2, version 8, 8 October 2010.Pretoria. http://www.doe-irp.co.za/con-tent/INTEGRATED_RESOURCE_PLAN_ELECTRICITY_2010_v8.pdf accessed13 October 2010.

G:enesis (Genesis Analytics) (2010). Studyto provide an overview of the use of eco-nomic instruments and develop sectoralplans to mitigate the effects of cliamtechange. Report by Genesis Analytics forby B Cloete, G Robb, E Tyler, W Engel,B Cohen, P Notten, M Ncwadi and SThorne Johannesburg, Fund forResearch into Industrial Development,Growth and Equity (FRIDGE). www.dti.gov.za/fridge/FRIDGE_Final%20Report.pdf accessed 3 June 2010.

Gaunt, T. (2005). Meeting electrification’ssocial objectives in South Africa, andimplications for developing countries.Energy Policy 33: 1309 –1317.

Goldblatt, M. (2010). Comparison of emis-sions trading and carbon taxation inSouth Africa. Climate Policy 10 (5): xxx– yyy.

Howells, M., Victor, D.G, Gaunt, T., Elias, R.J. & Alfstad, T. (2006). Beyond free elec-tricity: The costs of electric cooking inpoor households and a market-friendlyalternative. Energy Policy: 3351–3358.

Hughes, A., Haw, M., Winkler, H., Marquard,A. & Merven, B. (2007). Energy emis-sions: A modelling input into the LongTerm Mitigation Scenarios process. Pre-pared by the Energy Research Centrefor Department of Environment Affairsand Tourism, Pretoria, October 2007.http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/LTMS/LTMS-intro.htm Accessed 30 October2008.

Kearney, M. (2008). Long-term mitigationscenarios: Dynamic economy-widemodelling. Technical discussion docu-ment Cape Town, Energy ResearchCentre. www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/LTMS/LTMS-intro.htm Accessed 31 July2008.

Mapako, M. & Prasad, G. (2005). The FreeBasic Electricity (FBE) policy and ruralgrid-connected households, solar homesystem (SHS) users and unelectrifiedhouseholds. Domestic Use of Energyconference, Cape Town, 28-31 March.Cape Technikon.

Mavhungu, J. (2000). Electricity poverty tar-iff in South Africa: possibilities and prac-ticalities. M.Phil thesis. Energy & Devel-opment Research Centre. Cape Town,University of Cape Town.

National Treasury (2010). Reducing green-house gas emissions: The carbon taxoption. Discussion paper for public com-ment, December 2010. Pretoria.http://www.treasury.gov.za/public%20comments/Discussion%20Paper%20Car-bon%20Taxes%2081210.pdf accessed20 December 2010.

Pauw, K. (2007). Economy-wide modeling:An input into the Long Term MitigationScenarios process, LTMS Input Report4. Cape Town, Energy Research Cen-

tre. www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/LTMS/LTMS-intro.htm Accessed 30 October2008.

Pearce, D. (1991). The role of carbon taxesin adjusting to global warming. The Eco-nomic Journal 101: 938-948.

RSA (Republic of South Africa) 2010. Letterdated 29 January, for the South Africannational focal point. Pretoria, Depart-ment of Environmental Affairs http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/application/pdf /southafr icacphaccord_app2.pdfAccessed 8 February 2010.

UCT (University of Cape Town) (2002).Options for a basic electricity supporttariff: Analysis, issues and recommen-dations for the Department of Minerals &Energy and Eskom. Cape Town.

Winkler, H. (Ed) (2007). Long Term Mitiga-tion Scenarios: Technical Report. Pre-pared by the Energy Research Centrefor Department of Environment Affairsand Tourism, Pretoria, October 2007.www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/LTMS/LTMS-intro.htm Accessed 30 October 2008.

Winkler, H, Jooste, M & Marquard, A 2010a.Structuring approaches to pricing car-bon in energy- and trade-intensive sec-tors in South Africa. Climate Policy 10(5): 527–543.

Winkler, H. & Marquard, A. (2009). Analysisof the implications of a carbon tax. CapeTown, Energy Research Centre, Univer-sity of Cape Town. www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/ECCM/ECCM-intro.htmaccessed 30 April 2009.

Winkler, H. & Marquard, A. (2010). Putting aprice on carbon in the context of devel-opment. Editorial Climate Policy 10 (5):489–493.

Winkler, H. & Marquard, A. (2011). Analysisof the economic implications of a carbontax. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa– Vol. 22 No. 1 – February 2011 pp 54 –68.

Winkler, H., Marquard, A. & Jooste, M. (Eds)(2010b). Putting a price on carbon: Eco-nomic instruments to mitigate climatechange in South Africa and other devel-oping countries. Proceedings of the con-ference held on 23-24 March 2010 inCape Town. Energy Research Centre,University of Cape Town.

� Contact: Prof. Harald WinklerEnergy Research CentreUniversity of Cape TownTel: 021 650 2100E-mail: [email protected]: www.erc.uct.ac.zawww.treasury.gov.za


The Energy Modelling and Analy-sis course ran for the third year insuccession in 2010 (after a two

year break). This year, 10 of the Ener-gy Research Centre’s (ERC’s) 15 mas-ters students completed the modulewhich proved to be the most popular ofthe optional modules available in theERC’s master’s programme. 3 externalstudents participated through the Uni-versity of Cape Town’s program forcontinuing professional development(CPD). Among these CPD studentswere participants from other academicinstitutions, industry and governmentdepartments.

The course structure has maturedover the past three years, and this year(after a number of internal planningsessions), a wide range of expertswere selected as presenters to ensuresufficient depth in the course topics.These experts included the ERC’sEnergy Systems Analysis Group (DrBrett Cohen, Alison Hughes, AjayTrikam, Mamhloko Senatla, Bruno Mer-ven, and Stephen Davis); Dr AndrewMarquard also from the ERC; Ian Dur-bach from the Department of StatisticalSciences at UCT; and outside lecturersincluding Hilton Trollip from IDASA;Antony Boting from Strategic EconomicSolutions; Josephine Musango fromCSIR; Steve McFadzean and GlenHeinrich from Eskom, and our interna-tional guest lecturer for 2010, Dr NeilStrachan from the University College ofLondon.

With the funding made available bythe South African Energy ResearchInstitute (SANERI), the course contentwas reviewed and upgraded. Thecourse therefore followed a new formatthis year, and consisted of a pre-read-ing period with exposure to energymodel tutorials, followed by two contactperiods running for 3 days each. Thisyear, a consolidation period of 10 dayswas included between the two sets oflectures to ensure that students hadtime to be sufficiently grounded in thefundamentals of energy modellingbefore being exposed to the more tech-nical aspects of the course. The stu-dent assessment took place through a

combination of exams, long assign-ments and course participation marks.

The main themes of the coursehave been established as:• Understanding the importance of

Energy Systems Analysis to EnergyPlanning

• Modelling theory and methods• Model construction• Interpretation of output• Application of modellingVarious sub-themes and topics arecovered within each of these mainthemes.

In light of the current need forcapacity building in the energy planningand decision-making, and the scarcityof available skills to conduct this type ofwork in the energy sector, the ERC withthe support of SANERI continues to bewell placed to drive the local develop-ment of skills and capacity in thisscarce skills discipline. The course hasalso benefited to a great degree fromthe assistance of the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA) who pro-vided capacity building support andfunding for guest lecturers under atechnical cooperation agreement with

the ERC. We will continue to look forways to refine the course contentbased on the needs of the sector, andmaking it more widely available to thesector and to postgraduate students.The course will be run in 2011.� Contact: Stephen Davis

Course ConvenorEnergy Research CentreUniversity of Cape TownE-mail: [email protected]

MEASURING THE REBOUND EFFECT OFENERGY EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES FOR THEFUTURE: A CASE STUDY IN SOUTH AFRICA

Improved energy efficiency is seen as one of the affordable solutions to theenergy supply shortages in South Africa. However, observed savings are oftenlower than what would be theoretically predicted based on technology charac-

teristics alone. The ‘rebound effect’ is a term that refers to the extent to which theoretical

energy efficiency savings are not achieved due to subsequent behaviouralchanges.

The Energy Research Centre has undertaken a three-year study that set outto quantify the rebound effect of energy efficiency initiatives in South Africa’s res-idential sector. The study also aimed to explore ways of mitigating that effectusing awareness and education.� Contact: Stephen Davis

Researcher – Energy Systems Analysis and Planning GroupEnergy Research CentreUniversity of Cape TownE-mail: [email protected]: www.erc.uct.ac.za

Report on 2010 Energy Modelling and Analysiscourse held at ERC


There is a pause while the Depart-ment of Energy considers all thepublic comment on its draft Inte-

grated Resource Plan 2010 (IRP2010).The comment was voluminous, whichin part is tribute to the Department’sopen and transparent process for con-ducting most of the study. Unfortunate-ly, in the dying stages of drafting, theprocess moved from being open andtransparent to closed and opaque. Dur-ing these stages, the integrity of thestudy was destroyed and the wholeexercise rendered futile. The pauseseems likely to be protracted.

As our energy future is presentlybadly compromised by delayed con-struction of power stations, it is all themore important that IRP2010 shows usa clear way forward. Accordingly, earlylast year the Department called forcomment on the issues it intendedbuilding into an energy planning model.Many responded. There were com-plaints from some quarters that thecommenting documents were only inEnglish; that rural citizens would find itdifficult to make input; and that genderissues had not been taken intoaccount. However, in comparison withsimilar exercises carried out by otherDepartments, this one was a shiningexample of public consultation.

The Department also hired theElectric Power Research Institute, ofPalo Alto in California, to prepare areport costing the various options forgenerating electricity. This report is nowavailable from the Department. It pro-vides an excellent and impartial com-parison of a wide range of options, fromconventional coal-fired stations topower generated from municipal land-fills. All the assumptions are listed andopen to scrutiny. The report not onlygives costs, but also such details aswater consumption per unit of outputand the various emissions.

I found a few slight errors. The priceassumed for coal seemed high; the out-put of wind turbines seemed optimistic(particularly as our own wind atlas isnot yet complete); there was no costingof hydropower; and pumped storagehad been omitted from the list ofoptions. Nevertheless, as a basis forplanning our energy future, it was a

report of great value.The Department arranged further

input in the form of a projection of thefuture demand. Eskom gave a range ofvalues, the difference between thembeing driven by differences in theassumed GDP growth. The CSIR like-wise gave a range, also dependent onGDP. The lower range of Eskom’s esti-mates was virtually identical to the midrange of the CSIR’s estimates, but theDepartment chose the mid range ofEskom, which would see us needingabout 67 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, upfrom 39 GW today.

In December 2010, during a publicmeeting in Cape Town, UCT’s Prof.Trevor Gaunt gave another estimate,based upon his observation that thedemand had grown linearly at 800 MWper annum for the past 50 years. Hisestimate fortuitously agreed almostexactly with the mid range of the CSIRand the lower Eskom estimate, whichwould suggest 55 GW by 2030. The 12GW difference between that chosen bythe Department and these estimates isvery significant – it represents threelarge coal-fired power stations!

Armed with an almost-agreed set ofassumptions, the Department ran its

planning model. The model tested anumber of scenarios:• A base case of business-much-as-

usual, with coal-fired power sta-tions, imported hydropower, andgas-fired turbines (although therewas a strange suggestion to importcoal to fuel some power stations,the rationale for which was ob-scure)

• Cases where carbon dioxide emis-sions were limited to 275 or 220 mil-lion tons (they are 237Mt today)

• A carbon tax case• Some cases where development

within the SADC region wasencouraged, e.g. a coal-fired powerstation in Botswana

• Some so-called ‘balanced’ scenar-ios, in which significant quantities ofwind and solar power were forcedinto the model.They did not come out strongly in

favour of a carbon tax. However, theywere strongly in favour of limiting car-bon dioxide emissions. In order toachieve this, they recommended cours-es of action with three key features:• Removing existing coal-fired power

stations from service as soon aspossible;

• Installing up to 1 600 MW of renew-able energy every year from 2014onwards; and

• Meeting peak demands with gasturbines fuelled with imported natu-ral gas.The model the Department em-

ployed could readily be understood. Iwas able to duplicate most of theirresults. It was possible to develop alter-native scenarios that met the con-straints at lesser cost and lesser waterdemand. It made a huge difference tothe cost of generating electricity if thegas turbines were replaced by the farcheaper pumped-storage alternative.The costs could also be contained if thelife of the coal-fired stations wasextended. Refurbishment is far cheap-er than building new plant.

But I was unable to find an afford-able way of introducing renewableenergy in large quantities. It cost toomuch. This, presumably, was why theDepartment had had to force the modelto accept large quantities of renewable

Ourenergyfuture


energy. Moreover, forcing in largequantities of energy increased thereserve margin to over 20%, instead ofthe economic optimum of around 15%.If the growth in power demand is lowerthan the Department chose, then wewill soon be back in a position of havinga massive excess.

Finally the Department introduced asleight-of-hand. It rated the variousscenarios using a ‘rigorous multi-crite-ria decision making framework’. Thiswondrous tool weighted intangibles like‘regionalisation’, ‘localisation’ and ‘un-certainty’ heavily (nearly 50% in total);emissions quite strongly (about 20%);and water demand half as strongly asemissions. Cost was present, butbecause of the structure of the frame-work, played no part in the decisions!Rigorous it was not.

So the integrity of the whole exer-cise was destroyed by some fiddlingwith the answers, followed by a ridicu-lous exercise to try to justify the fiddle.Public money should not be wasted inthis way. The honest endeavours ofstakeholders to help the Department inits early attempts at transparencyshould not have been discarded. Ourfuture should not be compromised bypseudo solutions that ignore cost. Thecost of power is far too important to ourwhole economy to allow the Depart-ment to play games. From the pooresthousehold to the most productiveindustry, the cheapest possible powershould be the target.

Should be? No, it is! That is the offi-cial energy policy of South Africa. OurDepartment of Energy needs to read itsown White Paper. This is a summary of a lecture given tothe SA National Energy Association inCape Town on 16 February 2011.With acknowledgements to Business Day� Contact: Prof. Philip Lloyd

Energy Institute Cape Peninsula University of Tech-nologyMobile: 083 441 5247E-mails: [email protected] and [email protected]

Arecent climate change studywhich analysed greenhousegases from 100 cities in 33

countries determined that Cape Townemits more greenhouse gases percapita than major cities like London andNew York.

The study was not limited to theCity’s municipal area and instead cov-ered the greater Cape Town region,including flight and harbour emissions(which should be part of the nationalcarbon emissions inventory account,as opposed to an individual city’saccount). The study sought to establishlow carbon zones in South Africa andwas not considering a city metro area.The Cape Town metropole emitsapproximately 5.8 tons of carbon percapita (measured in 2007) as com-pared with the 11.7 tons per capitareflected in the article.

Despite the exaggeration in the arti-cle, the City has always maintained thatCape Town’s emissions are unaccept-ably high and has implemented its ownprogrammes to mitigate against this.For the City to be successful, residentsmust take responsibility for the city’sfuture.

‘We need to work together to bringdown our carbon emissions and a fewsmall lifestyle changes can make ahuge difference,’ said the City’s Execu-tive Mayor, Alderman Dan Plato.

The City would like to remind resi-dents of a few tips to bring down boththeir carbon emissions and their elec-tricity bills:GEYSERS • Maintaining a geyser temperature

of 55 degrees Celsius uses consid-erably less energy than the stan-dard 70 degrees Celsius. However,the geyser should not be droppedbelow 55 degrees Celsius.

• In most cases, the thermostat is

located inside the cover over theelectrical element of the geyser. Tolower the temperature, switch offthe electricity circuit at the mains,undo the cover, and then turn downthe thermostat using a screwdriver.Alternatively, hire a plumber toassist you.

• Insulate your geyser and waterpipes leading to the geyser (for 3metres) to maximise heat retention.

USE LESS HOT WATER• It helps to shower instead of bath,

and to take shorter showers.• Install a water efficient shower-

head.• Only fill the kettle with as much

water as you need. • Wash a full load of dishes, rather

than one dish at a time. • Use cold water where possible for

laundry washing. SWITCH OFF EQUIPMENT WHENNOT IN USE• Turn appliances off at the wall plug,

rather than leaving them on stand-by. While on standby, appliancescan still draw 20% (or more) of theelectricity that they draw when inuse.

• Turn the geyser off when you go onholiday.

REDUCE POOL PUMP OPERATION• If you have a pool with a cleaning

system pump, drop its operatinghours to the minimum, i.e. six hoursa day.

• Clean the filters regularly and con-sider installing a pool cover andswitching off the pump in winter.

REDUCE EXCESSIVE HEATING ORCOOLING• Heaters and air conditions are a

large drain on power. The public are

Mayor urgesCapetonians to bringdown city’s carbon

footprint


urged to use localised equipmentrather than central air-conditioningor heating systems, and to onlyheat or cool occupied rooms.

• The room temperature should notbe more than 10 degrees Celsiusabove the outside/ambient temper-ature.

• Fan or oil heaters with thermostatsare best.

• Avoid under-floor heating. • In summer use a fan rather than air-

conditioning. • The best ‘no cost’ saving option is

to wear warmer clothing in winterand open the windows in summer.

‘INVEST TO SAVE’ – INSTALL ASOLAR WATER HEATER• Solar heaters typically save about

two-thirds of a household’s waterheating cost, but this varies accord-ing to household. They should beinstalled with a timer for the bestpossible saving.

• With rising electricity tariffs and thenew subsidies from Eskom, thepayback period for a solar heater isnow no more than five years.

INSTALL A HEAT PUMP • Heat pumps can serve as an alter-

native if a solar water heater is nota viable option.

• Heat pumps can achieve similarsavings, but are a relatively newtechnology for homes, so they arenot well tested yet and may requiremore maintenance than a solarwater heater.

INSULATE THE CEILING/ROOF• Good ceiling and roof insulation can

keep the home up to five degreesCelsius warmer in winter, and 10degrees Celsius cooler in summer.More comfortable indoor tempera-tures lessen the need for electricalheating and cooling.

• Savings of about 75% are possiblewhen adding insulation.

• Insulating other parts of the homealso helps. For example, preventingheat loss through windows or underdoors.

INSTALL EFFICIENT LIGHTING• Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL)

use 75% less power than old incan-descent bulbs, and they last muchlonger. Remember to dispose ofthese bulbs safely due to theirpotentially harmful chemicals.

• LEDs are even more efficient and

last 130 times longer than CFLbulbs; they serve as an idealreplacement for halogen down-lighting.‘I encourage all residents to monitor

their electricity consumption and costs.Please encourage all those in yourhome to do the same, including chil-dren and domestic workers. Energy-efficient equipment goes hand in handwith a change in behaviour. It’s no useinstalling energy-efficient lighting if youleave lights on when you’re not in theroom,’ said Mayor Plato.

The last financial year saw morethan 100 projects across 51 pro-gramme areas ensuring that CapeTown is a more sustainable city, includ-ing:• The City’s Electricity Savings cam-

paign • The City supports the ICLEI (local

governments for sustainable devel-opment) Strategic Plan for 2010 –2015.

• The Climate Adaptation Plan ofAction which seeks to reduce ener-gy consumption.

• Traffic lights have been retrofittedwith energy efficient LEDs.

• Public streetlights have been fittedwith energy-efficient high-pressuresodium lamps.

• The City launched Africa’s firstClean Development Mechanismproject in the Kuyasa informal set-tlement.

• The mass roll-out of solar waterheaters.

• Greening of housing developments.• Institution of green building guide-

lines.• The Smart Living awareness cam-

paign and Smart Events Handbook.• The sale of Green Energy certifi-

cates from the Darling wind farm tooffset energy.

• Education programmes at schoolsin the metro.

• Carbon offset projects as part ofGreen Goal 2010.

• Waste projects to use methane asan energy source.

• The City participates in Earth Hourannually. ‘Cape Town aims to consume 10%

less energy by 2012. This will beachieved through a proactive roll-out ofsolar water heaters and an electricitysavings campaign. The City is alsoencouraging more compact andresource-efficient development, but this

can only be done through a strong part-nership with our residents,’ said MayorPlato.� Contact: Rulleska Singh

Media Spokesperson: Office of theExecutive MayorCity of Cape TownTel: 021 400 1257 Cell: 082 402 4825Sarah Ward Energy and Climate Change UnitCity of Cape TownTel: 021 487 2124/2200 Cell: 084 606 7177 E-mail:[email protected]: www.capetown.gov.za/envi-ronmentwww.capetown.gov.za/smartliving-handbookwww.eskomdsm.co.zawww.savingenergy.co.za


The City of Cape Town’s AnnualReport for the 2009/2010 finan-cial year is a clear indicator of its

strategy to promote infrastructure-ledeconomic growth in Cape Town. Thistype of development is crucial for theCity to realise its full potential and gen-erate financial, economic, and employ-ment benefits for all residents.

‘This year City Directorates re-mained as focused and committed asever to working together to deliver serv-ices and infrastructure to Cape Townand its people, despite the added work-load and significant budgetary con-straints resulting from the preparationsto host one of the largest sportingevents in the world – the 2010 FIFAWorld Cup™,’ said the City Manager,Achmat Ebrahim.

The responses to the City’s regularcommunity satisfaction surveys of 3000 residents and 701 businesses,show that overall perceptions of per-formance have improved significantlyover the past three years. This percep-tion is borne out by the results in theAnnual Report – a document whichprovides residents and stakeholderswith feedback on the City’s achieve-ments against the objectives set out inthe 2009/10 Integrated DevelopmentPlan.

The latest Annual Report showsthat the City is on firm financial ground,with its seventh consecutive unquali-fied audit from the Auditor General andthe receipt of the highest rating of allmetropolitan municipalities analysed byindependent credit ratings agency,Moody’s.

For the fifth consecutive year, theCity managed to maintain its positivelong-term credit rating of Aa2.za with astable outlook from Moody’s. Thisprized rating provides investors andresidents with confidence in the finan-cial leadership and management of themunicipality. Moody’s also gave theCity a short-term issuer rating of Prime-1.za. This means that investors are ofthe opinion that the City has the ability

to honour unsecured financial contractsand obligations.

The City collected 95.17% of billingas revenue during the financial year.On the other side of the spectrum, theCity handled its budget well, spending109.07% of the training budget, 83% ofthe capital budget and 97.4% of theoperating budget. The preparation asHost City for the 2010 FIFA World Cupsaw a R12.4 billion investment in infra-structure improvements across CapeTown.

The Annual Report also reflects onsome of the following key areas:SERVICE DELIVERY• The City provided 100% of formal

households with access to basicwater and sanitation services and92.18% with access to electricity.

• 7% of informal households receiveaccess to water; 77% receive sani-tation services; 72.87% receiveaccess to electricity;

• Of all known households in CapeTown, 99% receive basic levels ofsolid waste removal.

• A total of R1.56 billion was spent onrepairs and maintenance

• The City was awarded the BlueDrop Award for its drinking waterquality and received eight GreenDrop certificates for management ofits wastewater treatment plants.

• There was a 26.8% reduction inunconstrained water demand.

• The City managed to save 19.77%of its landfill airspace, in relation tothe volume of waste disposed – a3.83% improvement on the previ-ous year’s figure. This illustratesthat the Integrated Waste Manage-ment By-Law is showing a positiveimpact.

• The number of electricity outageswere reduced and R516 million wasspent on upgrading the City’s elec-tricity network, with another R623million earmarked for continuedmaintenance in the coming financialyear.

• R786 million was invested in up-grades to water and sanitation infra-structure.

• On average, one tap has been pro-vided for every 12.56 households,which is well above the nationalstandard of one tap per 25 house-holds.

• Another 6 656 toilets were installedin informal settlements; this meansthe City has caught up on its his-toric backlog.

SUSTAINABILITYMore than 100 projects across 51 pro-gramme areas are aimed at makingCape Town a more sustainable city.• The City has reduced its energy

consumption by 6.77%.• A third of traffic lights (400 out of 1

200 intersections) have been retro-fitted with energy efficient LEDs.

• As of June 2010, 40 000 out of 300000 public streetlights have beenfitted with energy-efficient high-pressure sodium lamps.

• Four City-owned administrativebuildings have been retrofitted withenergy efficient equipment.The City launched Africa’s first

Clean Development Mechanism proj-ect in Kuyasa informal settlement. Thispioneering project made households in2 333 households in Kuyasa moreenergy efficient through the installationof solar water heaters and energy effi-cient lighting and ceilings.� Contact: Willem Claassens

Head: Reporting – Integrated Devel-opment Programme City of Cape TownTel: 021 400 9823 Cell: 082 341 9070Website:www.capetown.gov.za/reports

City’s Annual Report for 2009/10 showsinfrastructure-led growth


Policymakers need to take a freshlook at the differences betweengreenhouse gas emissions from

different cities to identify new opportu-nities to mitigate climate change, saysa forthcoming study in the peer-reviewed journal Environment andUrbanization published by Sage Publi-cations and the International Institutefor Environment and Development.

The study provides greenhouse gasemissions per person for over 100cities in 33 countries and suggests pol-icy tools that city governments can useto take action on climate change. Thecities are in Argentina; Australia;Bangladesh; Belgium; Bhutan; Brazil;Canada; China; Czech Republic; Fin-land; France; Germany; Greece; India;Italy; Japan; Jordan; Mexico; Nepal;The Netherlands; Norway; Portugal;Republic of Korea; Singapore; Slove-nia; South Africa; Spain; Sri Lanka;Sweden; Switzerland; Thailand; UnitedKingdom; and United States.

‘Cities worldwide are blamed formost greenhouse gas emissions butmany cities have very low emissions,as do many city dwellers in even themost industrialised countries,’ sayslead author Daniel Hoornweg, leadurban specialist on Cities and ClimateChange at the World Bank.

‘Differences in production and con-sumption patterns between cities andcitizens mean that it is not helpful toattribute emissions to cities as a whole.Policymakers need a better under-standing of the sources of emissions ifthey are to develop real solutions.’

Hoornweg and colleagues showedthat emissions per person per year varyfrom 15-30 tonnes of carbon dioxideequivalent in some cities in industri-alised countries to less than half atonne per person per year in variouscities in South Asia.

But there is also great variationwithin countries and even within cities:• In the United States, the emissions

per person in Denver are doublethose of people in New York, whichhas a greater population densityand much lower reliance on privatevehicles for commuting.

• In Toronto, residential emissionsper person in a dense, inner cityneighbourhood with a high qualitypublic transport system are just 1.3tonnes of carbon dioxide equiva-lent, compared to 13 tonnes in asprawling distant suburb.And there are some surprising dif-

ferences between cities in differentparts of the world:• Many European cities have less

than half the emissions per personof many cities in North America.

• Some successful and wealthy citiesin Brazil have lower emissions perperson than poorer cities in Asiaand Africa.

• Emissions per person in Londonare lower than those in Cape Town,South Africa.The paper shows that emissions

vary greatly depending on whether theyare calculated according to what a city(or a citizen) produces or instead whatthey consume.

‘Lifestyles and consumption pat-terns are key drivers of greenhousegas emissions in emissions in far offcities, as in the case of Western con-sumer demand for Chinese goods,’says Hoornweg. ‘From the productionperspective Shanghai has high emis-sions but from the consumption per-spective its emissions are much lower.’

Equally, a wealthy city where manyinhabitants have a high-consumptionlifestyle can have low per capita emis-sions from a production perspective,but very high emissions from a con-sumption perspective.

‘This paper reminds us that it is theworld’s wealthiest cities and theirwealthiest inhabitants that causeunsustainable levels of greenhousegas emissions, not cities in general,’

says Dr David Satterthwaite, who is theeditor of Environment and Urbanizationand a senior fellow at the InternationalInstitute for Environment and Develop-ment.

‘Most cities in Africa, Asia and LatinAmerica have low emissions per per-son. The challenge for them is to keepthese emissions low even as theirwealth grows.’ � Contact: Daniel Hoornweg

World Bank Tel: +1 202 458 4731E-mail: [email protected] Dr David SatterthwaiteIIED Tel: +44 (0)207 388 2117E-mail: [email protected]: http://eau.sagepub.com/con-tent/early/recent

Climate change: study providesgreenhouse-gas emissions for 100

cities in 33 nationsStudy asks ‘whose greenhouse gas is it anyway?’ and urges a broader look at cities and climate change


INTRODUCTION Awareness of risks associatedwith climate change and climatevariability is critical for agricul-

ture smallholder farmers in building anddeveloping adaptive measures. At thecore is climate information, an impor-tant variable for both decision makingand for the sustainability of communi-ties and livelihoods. Access to climateinformation by farmers is vital: farmersneed to know when it will rain, the tim-ing and length of the rain season, howheavy rains will be, and if there will beany dry spells. This climate informationenables farmers to make decisions on:crop selection, selection of crop vari-eties, buying inputs, harvesting, shiftinglivestock to other locations, and soforth. The climate information alsoserves as a warning on impendingextreme climate variabilities such asfloods and droughts, with far reachingeconomic consequences.

Two main sources of climate infor-mation are the scientific informationforecasting (SCF) by country meteoro-logical departments, and traditionalforecasting. It is important to discusshow information generated from thesesources is passed on to the end-user,the smallholder farmers, and whetherthe climate information generated ismeeting its intended objectives. Thevalue of climate information cannot beunderemphasized. Smallholder farm-ers, in the main, lack the savings andinsurance and other secure ways ofmaking a living to help them recoverfrom an extreme event, and remainmore vulnerable to its effects.SCIENTIFIC FORECASTINGModern-day climate scientists havebeen developing seasonal climate fore-casts with increasing accuracy over theyears, using the knowledge of thephysics of the atmosphere to predictthe most probable future weather/ cli-mate scenario. This has enabled im-provement on tools for climate obser-

vation, monitoring, prediction and earlywarning systems.

Scientific information is relayed bymeteorological departments that gener-ate it, and is broadcast by radio and tel-evision at certain times of the day, andconveyed by newspapers. One as-sumes the climate forecasts to be read-ily accessible to farmers. That this isnot so is largely attributed to the wayclimate information is packaged andtargeted, inability of meteorologicaloffices to link information with actualusers, the distortion of informationalong the supply chain to the final end-user, and indeed that they may nothave access to media sources. Theway information is packaged has someserious problems: (i) farmers needclear messages and not probabilitiesas typical with weather forecasts; and(ii) the meteorological information is notdownscaled enough to be usable atlocal level. Even though media sourcescan be relied upon to reach the end-users where farmers have access tothese sources, there is no guarantee

that farmers listen to radios and televi-sion weather broadcasts. Other chan-nels may, instead, be more popular orthere may be other priorities at thetime. By implication, climate informa-tion may not be reaching its intendedtargets, and where it does, not it a waythat makes it very usable. Large infor-mation gaps therefore remain.TRADITIONAL FORECASTINGInformation deficit resulting from SCFleads farmers to rely on other fore-casts, such as traditional sources ofinformation. Traditional forecasts havebeen generated by communities overtime to allow them to understand andcope with their particular agro-ecologi-cal or socio-economic environment.They form the basis of community leveldecision making mainly in terms of foodsecurity or socio-economic activities,and have been preserved throughmethods such as oral tradition anddemonstration. This is not surprisingsince over the years communities/liveli-hood groups have developed their ownclimate prediction schemes based onobservations of behaviour of surround-ing environments.

Table 1 shows some examples fromtraditional sources. The traditionalapproach thus provides informationabout likely future events enablingfarmers and communities to take thenecessary pre-emptive actions toreduce vulnerability. The traditionalapproach is dynamic and is continu-ously evolving through internal creativi-ty or external influences. Information isusually disseminated at communitygatherings attended by a range ofstakeholders, in some cases, includingagricultural extension workers.

The general problem the traditionalapproach encounters is that it is hardlydocumented and information givenapplies to a given local radius. Thisway, the traditional source is at theother extreme of SCF, which is highlyaggregated. Worse still, traditionally

The dilemma of climateinformationforsmallholderfarmers


used indicators previously used tomake critical decisions are now provingless reliable. It is not just researcherswho are challenging their assumptions,but vulnerable communities are alsoquestioning the viability of some of theirtraditional knowledge systems. CONSTRAINTS WITH MODERNFORECASTSFarmers are strongly motivated to usedata and information on climate vari-ability and change provided it is in formand language they understand and canuse, and when this is accompanied byrelevant advice that help them applythe information, for example, to theirplanting and cultivation activities. Forfarmers and extension workers the cli-mate forecasts are useful, but not suffi-cient. Obviously, scientists cannot pre-dict the weather with enough lead timeand precision to warn farmers when toplant or about upcoming risks.

Information providers are learning

that they need to go further in providingregular updates and meaningful advi-sories to complement their seasonalforecasts. For farmers, the limitationsof forecasting have reinforced the needto employ a range of strategies to dealwith uncertainty. Working with tradition-al knowledge providers opens chan-nels for greater dissemination of cli-mate information, in languages andforms that are useful to rural farmers. CHALLENGEBoth traditional and modern knowledgetypes have their own merits and demer-its. The reason that indigenous knowl-edge sources are preferred by the localcommunities is because it blends wellwith cultural norms and has been test-ed and used for a long time. Eventhough the two knowledge bases (tradi-tional and modern) are very different,both try to solve the same problems.Merging the two sources of informationmay lead to better climate risk man-

agement at the local level and promotepoverty reduction and sustainabledevelopment.

The modern meteorological fore-cast would be more helpful downscaledso that precise information can be pro-vided and not in terms of generalities.Harmonizing modern and traditionalforecasts is a step forward based onthe willingness of traditional forecastusers to allow scientists to test their cli-mate knowledge and methods.� Contact: Jabavu Nkomo

International Development ResearchCentre (IDRC)Nairobi, KenyaE-mail: [email protected]

Table 1: Indicators of drought and rain based on indigenous knowledgeIndicator IndicationPlants Fast bearing of fruits – good rains while immature dropping of

fruits – droughtHigher than normal flowering density of certain tree species

Ambient temperatures Higher than normal especially at night – good rains; lower than normal – poor rains

Behaviour of domestic Some local communities look at intestines of freshly slaughanimals tered animals (lamb) to indicate onset of a dry or wet spell

Higher than normal frequency of goats mating in August-September suggests lots of rain. On the contrary, increased libidoin donkeys is an indicator of below normal rainfall and a possible drought in the coming seasonThe appearance of frequent and many spider webs are signs of good rainfallNesting of birds high on trees or of crocodiles high on the ground near rivers are signals of likely flooding

Appearance of the moon First rains just before the appearance of the new moon – good rainsFull moon covered by clouds – good rains

Nature Heavy thunderstorm – good rains. Direction of the winds indicates the weather conditions, whether it will be a dry spell or wet period Dew forming can be seen as a sign of precipitation of rain, and whirl winds signifying drought and absence of rainOccurrence of army worms – drought Butterflies are used to signify the onset of rainfall and a dryspell


WWF’s global network launchedthe result of a 2 year journeywith ECOFYS in February – a

study and vision to arrive at 100%renewable energy by 2050 – phasingout all fossil and nuclear energy bythen. This 100% Renewable EnergyVision will certainly be the key guide fortheir work in future.

This is what the 100% Renewables(RES) Vision is about: 1. Energy conservation and efficiency,the rapid penetration of the most effi-cient technologies and usages, areparamount to achieve 100% RES. Thatis why in the scenario global final ener-gy consumption peaks in 2025 andreturns to 2000 levels by 2050. Inessence, their vision foresees half thefinal energy use by 2050 compared tothe IEA BAU case. 2. Continuous expansion of renew-ables, particularly the various wind andsolar technologies are key to the elec-trification of almost all usages. Thisrequires substantive grid expansion,grid enhancement and smart grid man-agement across regions and nations tobring the power to the people mosteffectively and reliably. 3. They assume that all people onEarth will receive reliable and sufficientenergy by 2050. Energy poverty andthe associated plight of billions will beover. In that sense, the traditional andoften polluting biomass use in poorareas of developing countries will dis-appear and be replaced by modernenergy services incl. highly-efficientand sustainable bioenergies. 4. They have looked ‘only’ at technolo-gies that are on the shelf already andmay be ready by 2020. 5. They have not reduced the projectedglobal GDP development, the amountof industrial materials needed, kilome-tres travelled, the floor area required

etc. by a growing population in particu-lar in developing countries. So the serv-ice provision is somewhat Business asUsual, but the energy needed to pro-duce these services is highly efficient.Also, they have a substantive modalshift (in transport) in system. 6. Only sectors of economy which can-not be fuelled by renewable electricityand in conjunction with high energy effi-ciency efforts will rely on biofuels, inparticular aviation, shipping and long-haul trucking. There is no biofuel usedin light duty vehicles. They believe thatbased on strong sustainability criteriathis biofuel can be provided with lowrisks. The risks of continuing relianceon oil, in particular increasingly uncon-ventional and high-risk oils, is a keythreat against which risks of biofuelsneed to be compared. However, theyare not naive. They will work also tobring down the amount of biofuels intheir scenario of about 105 Exajoule by2050. Further modal shift in transportand in addition to what is part of themodel calculations is required. Also,they hence need very strong R & D fornew materials to replace energy-inten-sive materials and also much moredevelopment of renewable hydrogen toreplace bioenergies eventually. Butthey are not there yet and technologiesare not mature. 7. Their cost assumptions – global pay-back after 2035 – is very conservative.They have assumed based on IEA datathat global energy prices will be risingby about 2% annually – which is verylow when observing the last 15 yearstrends and assuming that global oilprice will be $US 87 per barrel by 2030. 8. As a strategy, they will work veryclosely in future with all the cleantech/energy companies providing ambi-tious and clean solutions. They will alsowork with those companies that are notfully there yet but potentially may/willdeliver major parts of the solutions as

well in future. 9. They are happy to learn and are con-vinced that technology alone and eventhe toughest policies for energy effi-ciency standards, renewable energytargets and most generous support andfinancing schemes are not enough toachieve this vision of 100% renew-ables, based on the most efficient tech-nologies. The global rich and middleclasses everywhere also have to ques-tion individual lifestyles. Sufficiencymust be part of the solution. Thatrelates to diets, transport behaviouretc. The planet’s boundaries are gettingstretched already and even more sowith 9 billion humans on Earth verysoon. To create space, economicgrowth and well-being for the manypoor mainly but not only in developingcountries, richer individuals have toscale back expectations on continuedgrowth. There should be no compro-mise with nature and the life-sustainingecosystems. � Contact: Dr Stephan Singer

Director Global Energy Policy WWFInternational WWF European Policy Office Avenue de Tervuren 168 1150 Brussels Belgium Tel: + 32 (0) 2 743 88 17 Mobile: +32 (0) 496 55 07 09 E-mail: [email protected]: http://wwf.panda.org/wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/foot-print/climate_carbon_energy/ener-gy_solutions/renewable_energy/sus-tainable_energy_report/

100% renewables by WWF


The three-year Southern AfricanSolar Thermal Training and Dem-onstration Initiative (SOLTRAIN)

aims to assist Southern Africa transi-tioning from fossils to renewable ener-gies, thereby creating jobs, addressingthe energy crisis and protecting theenvironment.

Universities and SMMEs receiveexpert training and disseminate thisknowledge. They obtain specialistadvice in designing, manufacturing andinstalling solar thermal systems. Theseare monitored and improved by Austri-an experts. More than 50 improvedsystems will be installed at social insti-tutions like old age homes andHIV/AIDS orphanages.

A Solar Water Heating test centre isalso sponsored to improve the quality,performance, lifetime and affordabilityof solar water systems in SouthernAfrica.

Project partner, Sustainable EnergySociety of Southern Africa Solar WaterHeating Division (SESSA SWH) targets1m2/capita by 2020, thereby creatingmore than 200 000 new and sustain-able jobs, annually saving 30 500 GWhelectricity (replacing 3 Koeberg nuclearplants), 49 523 billion litres water, 19130 kilotonnes coal, 5 636 kilotonnesash as well as 46 521 kilotonnes ofCarbon Dioxide equivalent greenhousegases.

SOLTRAIN has already trained 400university lecturers and industry lead-ers who disseminated their specialexpertise to more than 400 solar ther-mal specialists, the lion’s share being inGauteng.

Nine policy decision-maker work-shops informed authorities and finan-cial institutions in South Africa, Namib-ia, Mozambique and Zimbabwe aboutinternational best practice in advancingrenewables and solar water heating.While Southern Africa is endowed with59% of the world’s best sunshine,South Africa ranks only in position num-ber 35 worldwide with solar application.

To date 60 SOLTRAIN sponsoredapplications for social institutions have

been approved, mostly in the WesternCape. A new tranche started in midFebruary, closing on 30 June 2011. Thesystems have to apply the lessonslearnt and should have high demon-stration value.

SOLTRAIN sponsors an outdoortest centre for the University of Stellen-bosch, which is likely to be placed inUpington where it is less cloudy. Thiscentre will provide training to studentsas well as feedback to industry.

SOLTRAIN is financed by the Aus-trian Development Agency (ADA) andimplemented by the Austrian Institutefor Sustainable Technologies with proj-ect partners from South Africa (Sustain-able Energy Society of Southern Africaand Stellenbosch University), Namibia(Polytechnic of Namibia), Mozambique(Eduardo Mondlane University andN&M Logotech Lda.) and Zimbabwe(Domestic Solar Heating).

� Contact: Prof. Dieter HolmSOLTRAIN Coordinator SouthernAfrica and SESSA organiser for Gaut-engP.O. Box 58 Hartbeespoort 0216 South Africa Tel: +27 (0)12 371 3389Cell: +27 83 287 3220E-mail: [email protected]: www.soltrain.co.za

SOLTRAIN initiatives


THE SCENARIOCape Town-based Lunar Products,supplier of LLumar Window Film, wasapproached by DTM/Spoormaker Con-sulting Engineering to provide a win-dow film to maintain maximum energysavings all year round.

Their client, Gina Mattei, the princi-pal of the Old Mutual Green’ scoolEarly Learning Centre in Pinelands,Cape Town, a large crèche (280 chil-dren in a 2 200m² building) for theinsurance giant, pointed out that theywere experiencing extremely high heatgain through their windows (tempera-tures of up to 30°were recorded) andwere also losing a lot of heat in winter –especially from their under floor heatingin the nursery section.

An up-market air conditioner wasinstalled, however, with the amount ofglass in the building, the competitionbetween the cool air and the heat pen-etrating the building, would have ren-dered the air conditioner almost use-less, or would have sent the school’selectricity bill sky high.

The engineering company waslooking for a film that would provide aU-value, the measure of how well abuilding component transmits heat, alower U-value indicating that more heatis kept inside the building of approxi-mately 4.0 – 4.5 W/(m²K) (to fit intotheir energy models) and still allowmaximum visible light transmittance(VLT).

Another requirement was a budgetlimit of R500 per square meter. THE SOLUTIONLunar Products recommended LLumarLE 50, which will provide a 30%increase in insulation of internal heatduring winter and a solar energy reduc-tion of 58% during summer time.

The increased insulation benefit inLLumar’s low emissivity LE films isachieved by its low emissivity coatingwhich reflects a large proportion (64%)of radiant energy back into the room,significantly reducing the radiant ener-gy lost through the glazing. This is

achieved while providing an opticalclear view from the inside of the build-ing. The LE 50 looks extremely naturalfrom the inside of a building and it isactually very difficult to notice that thereis any film on the windows after instal-lation, which is what the client particu-larly wanted.THE RESULTSThe LLumar LE 50, LE film provided aU-value of 4.4 W/(m²K) (insulating theinternal heat) and a total solar energyrejected (TSER) percentage of 58%,reflecting a huge amount of the solarheat gain on hot and sunny days. Witha VLT of 49%, it also retains a lot of nat-ural light as requested by the client.

Based on the information from theenergy model completed by DTM, theinstallation is expected to yield suffi-cient energy savings (especially withthe installation of a new AC system andwith massive electricity rate increasesin South Africa) to pay for itself inapproximately 3-5 years.

Gina Mattei, principal of the Green’scool, says:

‘The LLumar Window Film placed

on most of the windows and doors cutthe penetrating heat by more than 70%.Not only does the film cast a shadowdown our passages, which gives thebuilding a warmer, more comfortinglook from that of the glaring sun reflect-ing off our floors, but it also assists inkeeping the building naturally cooler,therefore, reducing the strain on our airconditioner.’� Contact: Piet Ebersöhn

Snelco ProTel: 012 348 1937E-mail: [email protected]:http://gallery.me.com/jacques-stander#100047.

Maximum energy savings all year round for green school


Smart and JustGrids: Opportunitiesfor sub-SaharanAfrica publication

Anew paper was released in Feb-ruary titled: Smart and JustGrids: Opportunities for sub�

Saharan Africa. The authors are Mor-gan Bazilian, Manuel Welsch, DeepakDivan, David Elzinga, Goran Strbac,Mark Howells, Lawrence Jones, And-rew Keane, Dolf Gielen, V.S.K. MurthyBalijepalli, Abeeku Brew�Hammond,and Kandeh Yumkella. It is availablethrough The Energy Futures Lab atImperial College London.

Some of the well�known andemerging concepts, systems and tech-nologies of Smart Grids may offer animportant contribution to universalaccess to electricity in sub�SaharanAfrica. They argue that these SmartGrid advances may enable sub�Saha-ran African countries to leapfrog ele-ments of traditional power systems interms of both technology and regula-tion. This could accelerate national andregional electrification timeframes,improving service delivery, minimizingcosts and reducing environmentalimpact.

They introduce the notion of JustGrids to reflect the need for power sys-tems to contribute towards equitableand inclusive global, economic andsocial development. While Smart Gridsmay provide an efficient mechanism toaddress the massive electricity infra-structure building requirements, JustGrids will help guarantee access tomodern energy services without mar-ginalizing the poor. This paper presentsthe concept of Smart and Just Grids,and considers specific priorities thatcould usefully be implemented in sub�Saharan Africa in the short�term. Itreviews the literature, provides a foun-dation for policy development, and sug-gests areas for further, more detailedresearch. � Contact: Dr Morgan Bazilian

Special Advisor to the Director-Gener-al on Energy and Climate Change United Nations Industrial Develop-ment Organization (UNIDO) Vienna International Centre, D2283 PO Box 300, A-1400 Vienna, AustriaTel: +43 (0) 1 26026 3504 E-mail: [email protected]: www.unido.org andwww3.imperial.ac.uk/energyfutureslab

Neglectedenergy sourcecan fuel giantleap forward indevelopingnationsDeveloping nations have an

untapped resource that couldenable them to fight poverty,

create jobs, gain energy independ-ence and help to both limit and adaptto climate change, says a report pub-lished on 10th March by the Interna-tional Institute for Environment andDevelopment.

It urges such nations to takeadvantage of their dependence onbiomass fuels — such as wood andcharcoal — and move towards greeneconomies in which the poor benefitfrom producing sustainable, cleanenergy.

The report points out that relianceon biomass fuels is set to treble from10 to 30 percent of global energy con-sumption by 2050. Advanced newtechnologies can convert wood to liq-uid and gaseous fuel or can producewood bundles or pellets that can be‘gasified’ to make electricity.

While developed nations are tak-ing this seriously, developing nationsare generally lagging behind, andtreat biomass energy as traditionaland dirty, a health hazard, povertytrap and threat to forests. But thereport shows how they can turn theiralready heavy biomass dependenceinto an advantage.

Biomass energy is highly flexibleand can be readily converted into allthe major energy carriers (heat, elec-tricity, liquid and gas). This means itcan meet many of diverse energyneeds: from irrigation pumps and illu-mination, through agricultural pro-cessing and refrigeration to transportand telecommunication.

‘Many governments in developingnations dissuade people from burningwood or charcoal as fuel as they thinkit is backward, but this just criminalis-es poor people for their energy needsand does little to limit deforestation,’

says Duncan Macqueen, a seniorresearcher in the IIED’s NaturalResources Group and co-author ofthe report. ‘Instead governmentshould embrace and legalise biomassfuels as a source of energy and enactpolicies that make supply chains sus-tainable.’

Macqueen explains more in anIIED opinion paper that was also pub-lished on 10th March.

The report shows that if nationsmanage their forests and ensurereplanting happens in a way that issensitive to food security needs, bio-mass can be a renewable and sus-tainable source of energy. Biomassalso produces lower emissions ofgreenhouse gases than fossil fuels.As biomass energy is labour intensiveacross the whole supply chain, it canoffer employment options to reducepoverty, while the potential healthhazards can be easily solved by bet-ter processing and stove technolo-gies.

‘Fossil fuels are running out andthreatening our global climate in theprocess, so the hunt is on for greenermore sustainable energy,’ says co-author Sibel Korhaliller. ‘Developingnations that get serious about bio-mass energy and end any historicprejudices against such fuels willgreatly serve their national interests.This will need a new approach thatlegalises and secures sustainableproduction by and for the millions ofpoor people who both produce anddepend on biomass for energy.’

The report outlines ways fordeveloping nations to enact policiesto capitalise on the potential for bio-mass fuels to tackle climate changeand poverty, and create energy secu-rity, jobs and sustainable economies. � Contact: Mike Shanahan

Press OfficerInternational Institute for Environ-ment and Development (IIED)3 Endsleigh StreetLondon WC1H 0DDTel: 44 (0) 207 388 2117Fax: 44 (0) 207 388 2826Email: [email protected]: http://twitter.com/shanahan-mikeWebsite: www.iied.orgDuncan MacqueenIIED Tel: +44 (0)131 226 6860E-mail: [email protected]


Amazingly abundant, renewableenergy is proving to be a moreviable option in industry. The

power supply crisis has accelerated theneed to diversify the nation’s energymix and our need to move towardsother alternative energy sources suchas solar water heating, wind, PV, hydroand various solar thermal technologies.

South Africa is one of the highestemitters of greenhouse gases becauseof its reliance on coal, a major indige-nous energy resource, to generatemost of its electricity and a significantproportion of its liquid fuels. On theother hand, it is home to one the high-est sources of solar radiation, makingsolar technology investment and re-search more attractive, as noticed bythe successful recent investor solarpark conference in Upington.

Further entrenching our greenagenda, the country is committed toreducing emissions. Irvan Damon,brand ambassador of the SustainableEnergy Society of Southern Africa(SESSA) Solar Water Heating says,‘South Africa is committed to reducingcarbon emissions by 34% by 2020.’ Tothis end, energy supplier Eskom hasalso pro-actively committed to reducingits reliance on coal as a primary ener-gy-generating source.

While the cost of electricity remainsamong the world’s lowest, Damon saysSouth Africans need to be reminded topractice greater energy saving habits.‘Most of us have a high discount rate,preferring not to invest in energy savingdevices which might cost more initially,but have greater economic and envi-ronmental rewards later,’ he says.

According to Damon, the powerinfrastructure in South Africa could dowith a greater energy mix from renew-able sources, contributing to greatergrid stability and energy security.‘Where the grid is not able to reachdeep rural areas, off grid options likesolar water heating, wind and PV

become more viable,’ he adds.The government is working togeth-

er with the private sector to bring SouthAfrica’s electricity supply and distribu-tion system back into balance. Withmaster policy-frameworks like the Inte-grated Resource Plan, mapping out theDNA of our energy matrix for the nexttwo decades or so, government hasmade huge progress towards embrac-ing a more positive and greener energylandscape.

At the same time, the importance ofreducing demand by pricing electricitycorrectly as well as promoting energyefficiency and deterring, and if neces-sary outlawing, energy inefficiencycould also feature in the near future.Damon says, ‘At the moment the ener-gy climate in South Africa is lookingoptimistic with government creating thepolicy and the investment climatelargely favourable for existing and newrenewable energy players and alsoencouraging energy efficiency strate-gies.’

He says, ‘We are seeing a morepragmatic collaboration from the majorplayers, from renewables to conven-tional in South Africa; and this will alsogreatly assist in reaching our 2020emissions goal.’

‘In addition, the topic of green collarjob creation is an interesting one; somepreliminary research has indicated thatthe renewable sector could add 300000 jobs in the next 10 years, 20 000 ofthose in the next two years. To this end,government as well as key industrybodies, have been focused on speed-ing up the local manufacture of keycomponents for the green economy byfocusing on local skills developmentprogrammes,’ he says.

‘According to some, internationalexperience has shown that pro-grammes directed at the built environ-ment can have a big impact and thusthe greening of South Africa’s construc-tion industry is important and could pro-

duce more jobs. Investing in green col-lar jobs and the manufacturing sectorwill also make South Africa more com-petitive internationally; the Chinesegovernment has backed its renewableenergy programme heavily, producingjust over a million jobs, 600 000 in thesolar water sector alone’ he concludes.

Damon also notes that recentlygovernment echoed that it wanted tocreate 5 million jobs in the next decade.‘I believe that the renewable sectorcould be one of the primary drivers ofnot only helping to achieve this out-come locally, but also contributing toour competitive edge in the green-techexport market’.� Contact: Nkuli Mngcungusa

E-mail: [email protected]

Renewable energy — a moreviable option


Research Caribbeanis a new platform,and part of Research

Professional, the world’sleading online platform andfirst source of informationand expertise on news,funding opportunities andsponsorship information for academics,policy makers and professionals in theUK, Europe, Africa and North America.Research Caribbean will: • Keep Caribbean researchers abreast

of regional and international devel-opments within the research, inno-vation and development sectors,

• Present Caribbean knowledge in aform that is accessible and compre-hensible to potential users, includ-ing key decision-makers nationally,regionally and internationally,

• Encourage placement of researchat the centre of policy development.and

• Engage key policymakers, decisionmakers, and funders within and out-side of the region to use the plat-form as their primary source ofinformation, analyses to betterinform policy actions. Their correspondents, based in the

Caribbean and across the globe, willcapture the latest developments andanalyses on and by the Caribbean andthe extended Caribbean diaspora in asingle platform, Research Caribbean.They will bring news on the latestdevelopments, funding and trainingopportunities, innovation and researchin, on and about the Caribbean arisingfrom institutions, policy makers, profes-sionals or independent researchers.

Research Caribbean will featurepolicy analyses and critiques by lead-ing thinkers. Their news platform willalso feature research and develop-ment, profiles, literature reviews,upcoming training opportunities andevents as well as up-to-the-minutefunding opportunities available to theregion drawn from Research Profes-sional’s established network of morethan 13 000 research funding opportu-nities contained on the Research Pro-fessional platform.

This will provide Caribbean deci-sion makers and research managersacross the African Caribbean and

Pacific (ACP) region withcore baseline informationon funding, programmesand policy affecting re-search that will help theCaribbean become moreviable and competitive inthe knowledge economy.

Research Caribbean: Content Out-line – fortnightly research and innova-tion news • Up Front: Lead story on new/break-

through research and development,policy or funding.

• Editorial, Op-Ed & Opinion & Analy-sis: open debate on current issuesin R&D developments in Caribbean

• News: Latest developments underheaders (relevant to each particularissue): Economy & Finance; Policy,Bilateral/Multilateral, Science, Arts& Innovation, Science & Technolo-gy, Society & Politics, Agriculture,Tourism, Trade, Environment & Cli-mate Change, Health, Education,Media & Information Technology

• Caribbean Research & Develop-ment in Brief: snippets of aroundthe region developments in R&D

• The Caribbean & the World: R&D,policy developments impacting theCaribbean from elsewhere (may beintegrated into some of the above)

• Profiles/Interviews: researchers/sci-entists/innovators, policy makers onthe cutting edge of development

• Profiles of Collections: Descrip-tion/profile of special collections ofvarious materials relevant toCaribbean housed at various insti-tutions internationally and within theregion

• Literature: book reviews, policyreviews/critique, new publications

• Inbox: Letters/correspondence fromreaders/partners/sponsors

• Training & Education Opportunities& Events: courses, conferences

• Funding opportunities available onResearch Caribbean

� Contact: Dr Kris Rampersad Research Caribbean Editor E-mails: krislit2@ @yahoo.com [email protected]: www.research-africa.net

Introducing ResearchCaribbean

WinDABA2011

The South African Wind EnergyAssociation (SAWEA) is proudto introduce WinDABA 2011,

South Africa’s Wind Industry’s Con-ference and Exhibition. This excitingevent is taking place at the CapeTown Convention Centre, CapeTown, South Africa, from 27-29 Sep-tember 2011.

SAWEA is the leading trade andprofessional body representing thewind industry in South Africa. As thevoice of South Africa’s wind industry,SAWEA’s primary purpose is to pro-mote the sustainable use of windenergy in South Africa acting as acentral point of contact for informa-tion for its members, and as a grouppromoting wind energy to govern-ment, industry, the media and thepublic.

South Africa has an abundantwind resource, and coupled with itsvast tracts of open land and infra-structure – the potential to become a‘wind powerhouse’. Go to www.sawea.org.za for more informationon the South African Wind Industry.

WinDABA 2011 will tackle the fullrange of wind energy subjects,developing strategies, the adaptationof successful technologies andstrategies to specific regional andlocal conditions. The conference willaddress not only technology issuesbut also policy and regulatoryaspects, funding, return on invest-ment and environmental impact.

The Cape Town Convention Cen-tre offers state-of-the-art equipmentproviding a venue above all expecta-tions.� Contact: Cheryl Peters

Conference ManagerWinDABA 2011 Conference andRenewable Energy ExhibitionTel: +27 21 689 7881Fax: +27 21 686 4361E:-mail: [email protected]: www.windaba.co.za andwww.sawea.org.za


Doug Banks was a significantauthority and agent provoca-teur in Renewable Energy. In

memory of him and to honour thelegacy of his work, the Doug BanksRenewable Energy Vision (DBREV)initiative was formed in July 2008.THE VISIONThe DBREV was established with thepurpose of building intellectual capacityin the field ofrenewable energy in SouthAfrica. Built on the passion and visionof Dr Doug Banks, who during his lifeinspired a number of bright young peo-ple to make a career in renewableenergy and to focus on the energyproblems of Africa in particular, the fundaims to support South African studentsfrom an engineering, scientific or tech-nical background to carry forward thisvision.

To formalize the DBREV a constitu-tion has been drawn up and a trust reg-istered, with members of Doug’s family,close friends and Renewable Energycolleagues as the trustees.

Sponsors made the first DBREVscholarship award possible.THE SCHOLARSHIPThe first DBREV scholarship wasawarded to Ms Gaby Coppez, an engi-neering graduate, enabling her to enrolfor a Masters degree at the Universityof Cape Town (UCT). With the mentor-ship support that distinguishes thisscholarship and the experienced guid-ance of her UCT supervisor Prof S.P.Chowdhury, Gaby has started shapingher thesis, ‘Modelling and Simulation ofHybrid Renewable Energy GenerationSystems for Rural Electrification’.

With the extra financial supportoffered by the DBREV she has attend-ed two conferences, the first in Waleswhere she presented a paper on ‘TheImportance of Energy Storage inRenewable Power Generation: AReview.’ At the PowerCon meeting inChina she presented a paper entitled‘Impacts of Energy Storage in Distrib-

uted Power Generation: A Review’.Both of these papers focus on dif-

ferent aspects of the importance ofenergy storage within off-grid renew-able energy systems. Gaby is full ofenthusiasm after her experience: ‘Theconference was fantastic! I met somany people from all around the worldall involved in very interesting proj-ects.... have found people that I can callon for thoughts and discussion onthings.... It was so interesting to hearwhat’s going on in Europe and aroundthe world in Renewable Energy.... Itwas a very mind expanding and inspir-ing time and I’ve gotten straight backinto work and am now deep into model-ling and simulation. I think this is allvery enriching for my Masters thesis.’GOALSIt is their intention to raise a R5 millioninvestment to be in a position to awarda scholarship each year, and if thingsgo well, to expand our impact beyondthe borders of South Africa.

Many of the 2009 scholarship appli-cants mentioned that the offer of men-torship was a significant draw card. Asthere appears to be a real need for this,it is our desire to grow the DBREVmentor base and capacity.

How can you get involved or showyour support for the DBREV?• Sign up as a ‘Friend of the DBREV’

on their website – www.doug-banks.co.za.

• Become a DBREV sponsor, eitheras a corporate or as an individual.

• Become a DBREV mentor by mak-ing your experience available toguide the DBREV scholars.

THE SPONSORSThe DBREV wishes to thank its spon-sors and contributors which have madeit possible to get the fund off theground. In order to secure the sustain-ability of the DBREV Scholarship Fundinto the future we wish to invite moresponsors and partners to help build thisinitiative.� Contact: Dave Gale

Doug Banks Renewable EnergyVisionE-mail: [email protected]: www. dougbanks.co.zahttp://gabyelectrification.blogspot.com/

Doug Banks Renewable Energy Vision


CSP tippedto emerge

asdominantsolar

technologyin MENA

Political stability is being cited asthe biggest challenge for solardevelopment in North Africa and

Middle East, according to researchconducted by CSP Today.

CSP Today’s industry survey, Out-look on Solar in North Africa & MiddleEast, featuring around 400 solar indus-try players, indicated that 38.2% ofrespondents believe that political stabil-ity is going to be the major issue forthese regions. It was followed by finan-cial support (26.8%), regulatory frame-work (24.2%) and plentiful oil and gasresources (10.5%).

The future of CSP technology inNorth Africa and Middle East is sched-uled to be discussed by key organisa-tions including Masdar, Total, CreditSuisse, World Bank, IFC, BNP Paribus,Qatar Petroleum Company and JBIC atMENASOL 2011, the premier solarevent for North Africa and the MiddleEast.

Also, as per the findings of the sur-vey, around 62% of respondentsbelieve that CSP technology is going tobe dominant technology in North Africaand around 53% expressed the samefor the Middle East market.

The solar industry’s key playersincluding Abengoa, First Solar, Isofo-ton, BrightSource, Soitec, Kaneka andAcciona among others are scheduledto discuss in detail the potential of CSPand PV technology during MENASOL2011.

When asked what the biggest chal-lenge was facing this exportation ofpower to Europe, the two biggest con-cerns was political co-operation (50%),and transmission of the energy (42%).With Spain and Morocco only beingseparated by 13 km of the Atlantic

Ocean, it makes this country a perfectcandidate to realise the dream, espe-cially as they import 96% of their ener-gy needs, making them eager to beenergy independent.

However, what is less well known isthe Arab perspective on this deal, atMENASOL 2011 UNESCO have organ-ised a roundtable discussion with 22+government officials from the Ministries

of Energy in the region to discuss aplan that works for Europe and MENA.� Contact: Heidi Hafes

Event DirectorCSP, CPV & Thin Film TodayTel: +44 207 375 7206E-mail: [email protected]: www.csptoday.com/solar-conference

Meeting MENA’s energy needs:Has the solar boom begun?

The ‘sun belt’ region has been coined as the emerging solar market for sev-eral years, up to this point the large potential for renewable resources inthe Middle East has remained largely untapped. This is especially true of

solar power; its potential in the MENA region alone far exceeds global electricitydemand.

However things are set to change with the current Spanish crisis destabilis-ing one of the leading solar markets, and USA regulatory hurdles making solardevelopment a pain staking process with weighty financial burdens. The time hascome for the MENA region to deliver on its promise, and 2011 is the year we canexpect the market to significantly move forward. Company heavyweights such asCH2MHill, WorleyParsons, AREVA, Siemens, ABB, Schott, Abengoa & Accionaare not only closely monitoring the opportunities presented in the North Africaand Middle East market, but are active players positioning themselves for whenthe industry explodes.THE CSP & PV POTENTIAL According to a report by the Electrical Engineering Department at King Saud Uni-versity, the Middle East receives 3 000 – 3 500 hours of sunshine per year, withmore than 5.0 kW/m2 of solar energy per day.

Clearly demonstrating there is an energy demand, market and capacity forboth CSP and PV technologies including CPV and Thin Film. An EPIA reportcompiled an accelerated scenario, with 66 sunbelt countries based within 35° ofthe Equator. They concluded the installed solar PV capacity can expect to reach405 GW by 2030, bringing electricity to around 300 million people and make up2.5-6% of the sunbelt’s overall power generation.

Interestingly, amongst the new CSP markets, the largest build-up of CSPcapacity expected will be in MENA. 1 430 MW of projects have been announced,with total investment in North Africa predicted to reach $5.6 billion, tripling currentinvestment in CSP technology. In the IEA scenario North Africa would most like-ly export about half its production to Europe, making this an important regionpolitically and commercially. ACCELERATING THE MENA SOLAR REVOLUTION In 2009 and 2010, countries across North Africa and Middle East publicallydemonstrated their eagerness to harness their solar energy, become a solar huband export the power to Europe. These are big dreams, but what is the reality?The organisers have published a country profile report detailing the public andprivate initiatives in Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait,Saudi Arabia and UAE. � Contact: Heidi Hafes

Event DirectorCSP, CPV & Thin Film Today Tel: +44 207 375 7206E-mail: [email protected]: www.csptoday.com/solar-conference, www.csptoday.com/menareport

Energy Management News 2121 Energy Management News

Now that the dust has settled fol-lowing the COP16 meeting inCancun, we are able to get a

clear perspective on what wasachieved and what consequences ithas for the global carbon markets.

It has been said that the outcome ofthe summit was more of a victory forthe UN process than the climate itself,with the major decisions postponeduntil the end of this year in Durban, buta path has been laid towards an inter-national consensus on making the nec-essary emissions cuts and how theymay be achieved. This can only begood news for the carbon markets.

Green Power Conferences’ ac-claimed Carbon Markets & ClimateFinance series returned in 2011 with afocus on the outcome of the summit,the implications of the Cancun deal fornational and international climate poli-cy, climate financing and transferringtechnology to developing countries, thestatus of forestry and REDD creditsand what new business opportunitieshave emerged in light of the qualifiedsuccess of COP16.

The 4th Carbon Markets & ClimateFinance Africa was held in Johannes-burg in January, bringing Africa’s car-bon market leaders together to developinstitutional capacity and substantiallyincrease the pace of project investmentand development.

April sees the return of Carbon Mar-kets & Climate Finance Americas, LatinAmerica’s leading forum and exhibitionfocused on the emerging options andstakeholders in the climate financearena and the effect on a continent tak-ing an increasingly important role inglobal climate policy and commerce.

New for 2011 – the Carbon Markets& Climate Finance series of events inAfrica and Brazil both feature a pre-conference Renewable Energy Fin-

ance briefing and a post-conferenceForestry Carbon Markets & REDD day.

� Contact: James TaylorCarbon Markets SpecialistGreen Power ConferencesE-mail: [email protected]: www.greenpowerconfer-ences.com

Solar Kits projectSolar Technologies distribute basic Solar Kits to families in Africa, which

have no electricity in their homes. This has a huge impact on people sincethey not only save on electricity (if they have it available), but it is healthi-

er (not using lamp oil), children can do homework at night, the electricity moneycan be used to buy essential items and they get to educate them about Renew-able Energy.

The basic kit consist of a 12W Solar Panel, 15A Charge Controller, 12V 7AhBattery and 3 x 3W LED Lights. The lights can be used for 7 – 9 hours per dayand the solar panel can recharge the battery in 4 – 6 hours. They either sell thisat reduced prices or give it away to disadvantaged families depending on thenumber of sponsors that they have.

Their target is to distribute 5 000 of these kits per month. At the moment theirrestriction to distribute these kits is mainly financial. The cost of a kit like this ismore or less R1 500.00 each (USD 202). The more kits they supply the less theywill cost.

Solar Technologies are looking for partners to assist them in this project,working together in bringing Renewable Energy to Africa.� Contact: Christo Fouche

Solar TechnologiesCell: +27 74 186 4101E-mail: [email protected]: christofoucheWebsites: www.energysavinglights.co.za, www.solartechnologies.co.za

Carbon markets and climate finance

22 Energy Management News Energy Management News 22

OBJECTIVESThis course is designed to familiarisestudents with issues concerning energyand climate change mitigation. It intro-duces science, history, politics andeconomics of climate change, andfocuses on how these relate to energypolicy. Students will also develop adetailed understanding of greenhousegas emissions from the energy sector,and the potential for mitigation, and willlearn some practical, quantitative toolsfor the analysis of energy and climatechange issues. On completion of thiscourse, students will have an under-standing of the complex challenge ofclimate change and a range of dimen-sions in seeking a solution to reducinggreenhouse gas emissions. COURSE CONTENT• Climate change: the science basics

and impacts• The international response to cli-

mate change• Economics of climate change• The context of addressing mitiga-

tion in South Africa• Analysis of GHGs• Carbon markets• Mitigation options and potential –

electricity supply, liquid fuel andtransport, energy efficiency andDSM, long-term mitigation scenar-ios for South Africa, economics andregulatory instruments, cities andclimate change mitigation

• International support – technologytransfer, international finance, lowcarbon economy and society

• Cities and climate change mitiga-tion

COURSE LECTURERSThe majority of the lectures will be pre-sented by staff at the Energy ResearchCentre which includes the following:• Professor Harald Winkler (Course

convenor, and Group leader ofEnergy and Climate ChangeGroup)

• Dr Andrew Marquard (Energy andClimate Change SeniorResearcher)

• Dr Debbie Sparks (Energy and Cli-mate Change Senior Researcher)

• Mr Thapelo Letete (Energy and Cli-mate Change Researcher)

• Mr Alfred Moyo (Energy and Cli-mate Change Researcher)

• Ms Anya Boyd (Energy and Cli-mate Change Researcher)

Several of the lectures/seminars will bepresented by outside lecturers who areconsidered to be specialists in theirfields.COURSE INFORMATIONWho should attend?This course will be of benefit to profes-sionals from government, NGOs etc.who would like to gain an understand-ing of the intersection of energy and cli-mate change issues, essential for ener-gy policy in South Africa and climatepolicy globally. FormatThe course consists of a one-weekintensive course. The course is part ofthe modules for the Energy ResearchCentre’s Masters programme, andMasters students will need to do addi-tional work, notably assignments and aresearch project either side of the lec-ture week. Other participants mayattend the intensive week only, for con-tinuing professional development orgeneral purposes (no formal credit, orfollow-up work). CostThe fee for the course will be R6 900.This fee includes lecture notes andreadings will be availably electronicallyfor download on a vula site before thelectures commence. Details will be sentto participants.

Discounts for staff and students ofUCT, and students of other tertiary edu-cation institutes are available undercertain circumstances.

Payment details are on the applica-tion form. Certificates and CPD points A certificate of attendance will beawarded to CPD participants for eachcourse. Participants need to attend80% of the lectures to qualify for anattendance certificate.

According to guidelines set out bythe Engineering Council of SouthAfrica, attendance of this course willearn participants 5 credits towards Cat-egory 1 (Dev-elopmental Activities). VenueSeminar Room, Snape Building, Engi-neering Mall (Upper Campus), Univer-sity of Cape TownDate and time08h30 – 16h30Monday 16 May – Friday 20 May 2011.Applications and cancellationsIn order to ensure a place on thecourse applicants should complete andreturn the attached registration form tothe course administrators – details areon the application form

Confirmation will be sent on receiptof an application form. Applicationsclose on 13 May 2011

Cancellations must be received oneweek before the start of the course, orthe full fee will be charged.

� Contact: Heidi Tait or Sandra JemaarCPD ProgrammeUniversity of Cape TownTel:: 021 650 5793Fax: 021 650 5501E-mail: [email protected]

Continuing Professional Development ProgrammeFaculty of Engineering and the Built EnvironmentUniversity of Cape Town

Energy and climate change course


MAY 20119 – 11THE WIND POWER AFRICA 2011CONFERENCE AND RENEWABLEENERGY EXHIBITIONCape Town, South AfricaContact: Deidre Raubenheimer, Man-ager, UCT Conference ManagementCentreTel: +27 21 406 6167Fax: +27 21 448 6263E-mail:[email protected]: www.cmc.uct.ac.za16 – 20 ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGESeminar Room, Snape Building,Engineering Mall Upper Campus,University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South AfricaContact: Heidi Tait or Sandra Jemaar,Continuing Professional Development Programme, University of Cape TownTel: 021 650 5793Fax: 021 650 5501E-mail: [email protected] CARBON EXCHANGE –NEW GREEN YOUR OFFICECOURSEJohannesburg, South AfricaContact: Bianca Uliana, Global CarbonExchangeMobile: 072 494 1841E-mail: [email protected] 201114 – 15WIND POWER ITALIARome, ItalyWebsite: www.greenpowerconfer-ences.com/winditalia21 – 22SOLAR SOUTH AFRICAJohannesburg, South AfricaContact: Jo-Anne Duff (Speakers),Green Power Conferences E-mail: [email protected] Brady (Sponsorship and Exhi-bitions), Green Power ConferencesTel: +44 (0) 20 3355 4205E-mail: [email protected]: www.greenpowerconfer-ences.com

JULY 20116 – 7GLOBAL WINDPOWER FINANCE &INVESTMENTLondon, United KingdomWebsite: www.greenpowerconfer-ences.com11 – 142ND ANNUAL CLEANTECHINVESTMENT WORLD ASIA 2011SingaporeContact: Ng Ya Ling, TerrapinTel: +65 6322 2771E-mail: [email protected] – 29RENEWABLE ENERGY AFRICACONFERENCE & EXPOSandton Convention Centre, Johan-nesburg, South AfricaE-mail: [email protected]: www.reafrica.comAUGUST 201115 – 17INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL USEOF ENERGYCape Town, South AfricaTel: +27 21 460 3660Fax: +27 21 460 3728E-mail: [email protected]: http://active.cput.ac.za/ener-gy16GLOBAL CARBON EXCHANGE –NEW GREEN YOUR OFFICECOURSEJohannesburg, South AfricaContact: Bianca Uliana, Global CarbonExchangeMobile: 072 494 1841E-mail: [email protected] – 2 SeptemberISES SOLAR WORLD CONGRESS2011Kassel, GermanyWebsites: www.solar.uni-kassel.deand www.swc2011.orgSEPTEMBER 201113 – 1510TH IEEE REGION 8 AFRICON2011 CONFERENCEZambezi, Sun Hotel, Livingstone,ZambiaWebsite: www.africon2011.org

27 – 29 WINDABA 2011Cape Town, South AfricaContact: Cheryl Peters, BusinessRelations ManagerTel: +27 (0) 21 689 7881Fax: +27 (0) 21 685 4361E-mail: [email protected] – 1 October5TH INTERNATIONALCONFERENCE ON ADVANCEDRESEARCH IN VIRTUAL ANDRAPID PROTOTYPINGLeiria, PortugalWebsite: www.vrap.ipleiria.ptNOVEMBER 201121 – 23SMART ELECTRICITY WORLDMENAMovenpick Hotel, Jumeirah Beach,Dubai, UAETel: +971 4(0) 440 2518E-mail:[email protected]

Visit www.erc.uct.ac.za forfurther events and details

Energy events 2011

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Documents

Reducing greenhouse gas IN THIS ISSUE emissions: The ... · emissions: The carbon tax option discussion paper ... study provides ... how tax revenues would be appor-tioned between