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334

Subject Index

Ability,66-67.Accuracy, 3, 20-21,66-69,74,78-79,99,106,108,168,170,174-177,259­261,267,296,305,307,310,Accuracy measures, 170-175.Acceptable, 10,35,299·300.Activist, 58-60.Adaptive audience, 13, 18.Agency thoory, 42, 54, 240, 287.Analyst, 107,206,262-287.Analytical Review, 266-267.Anchoring, 109-112, 129.AnnOlated bibliography, 227-236,246-258,268-282.Argument, 2,12, 14-18,31,39-40,42,60,69,127,219,224,240,245,259,295,308.)URI~,51,57, 167-168,220,222.Artificial intelligence, 199,207,218.Assumptions, 302.Astrology, 51,55,62.AttiUJde, 9, 13,26,30,93,96,99,116, 123,210.Auditing, chp. 15,266-267.Availability bias, 86,119-120,129.Averaging, 2, 144, 152,223.Backcast, 177.Backlash (HIPS), 128-133Bankruptcy, chp. 12,95,190-191,203,237.Bias and heuristics, 30, 86,91,103,109-133,223,261,302.Body language, 53.Bootstrapping, 205-207, 223, 301.Brainstonning, 196.Budget, 21, 216, 300-301.Canonocial correlation, 197.Capacity, I.

Capital,6.Casting, 78.Charisma, 2.Causal models, chp. 8,43, 176,301.Causal chains, 197.Causality, 53-56, 62, 80,125-126,179-180,208,244,262.Change, 13,27,68,297,307.Chaos thoory, 243.Chi,101-102.Classification, 51, 190.Cliques - see groups, 65.Clouds,55.Coding, 117.Coefficients (slope), 202.Cognitive authority, 8.Cohesive - see compatible, 25, 75.Combine - see eclectic, 36, 213,220,222,227-236.Commitment, 7,18,20,79-80,112,116.Communication 8-13,19,23,43,64-67,84,85,132,216,223,285,303.Compatibility 5, 64, 70, 73, 75-76,114,307.Competitor, 6.Computer, 116, 143, 193,205,208,210,223,243,260,306.Concern, 6, 8, 91,107,299-300.Confmn - see falsify, 40, 112.Confidence, 90, 100, 116, 121,124-125,134-138,224,301.Conflict, 77.Consultants, 302-303.Contingency theory, 240·241, 261,288-289.Control,9, 14,216.Convince, 1·6,8,12,14,26,30-31,70,91.Correlation - see regression, 3, 68,102,107-108,192,194,220,222.

Subject Index

Cosl, 3, 7,9, 19,81, 150,206,263,286,301,305-307.Critical theory, 240-241.Culture, 69.Curve fining, 154-163, 167, 176.Cycles - see seasonality, 140-142,244,310.Data types, 94-96.Decision making, 2, 51,59,67,77,106,205,208-209,215,223,299.~uctive,54,308.

Delphi, 61, 79-82,176.Demographics, 23.Differencing, 147-150.Disconfum - see confum, 40.Dichotomous, 190-192,223,284.Disclosure, chp. 14,112, 196,264.Discourse, 43-45, 243.Dreams, 53, @.til.Dummy - see dichotomous, 190.Earnings - see profit.Eclectic approach, chp. II, 1,31,300.Education, 3,5, 13.Effective, 7, 11,69,70,75,120,259.Empirical evidence, 7, 10,39-40,67,77,108,113,180,262,265,284,289­295,300.Errors, 22, 113, 128, 168, 17~175,182-192,220,260.Ethnograph,117.Evaluate, chp. 15, 5.Evidence, chp. 2,4,7,17,117-118,223-224,242.Expectation theory, 72-73.Experience - see judgment, 8,35,41,119,122, 196.Experience tables, 198.Experiment (test), 2, 6, 22, 26, 39, 57,87,103,108,114,128,130,131,134-138,143, 196,224.

Expert - see semiexperts, 12, 105, 108-109,115,118,205,207,306.Expert system, 207-210.Explanation, 38-39, 53.Exponential, 127,203, 139, 150-154.Expressible, 12.Exttapomtion,chp.7,33,43,56,87,209,220,224-225,260,263,266.Eyeball, 143-144, 153-154.Faces, 23.Failure, 66, 238, 242-243.Faith, 31, 203.Fallacies, 16-18, 86.Falsify - see confirm, 41.Feedback, 18-26,68,73,80-81,134-138,217,223.Format (reports), 23.Fraud, 304-305.Freezing, 4, 5.Galgal,54.General function, 159.Goals, see objectives, 26, 67, 75, 174.Graphical information, 22-25,142-143,215.Groups,chp.4,2,5,19,22,25,54.

108,111-112,124,132,176,206,214,218-219,245,262,302.Group size, 66.Group think, 63.Hawthorne, 34.Heisenberg, 34.Heuristics - see biases, 10, 86.Heuristic regression, 199-202.Historical model, 202-203.History, chp. 3, 11,12,37,59,84-86,118,120,180,242,308.Hypothesis, 38,42.Hypothetical - see scenarios.Human information processing - see biases, 9,22,118,128,205,223.Idols, 119.

336

Subject Index

I-Ching. 59, 62. LOTUS (spreadsheet), 143, 154, 165, 176, 181.Images, 6, 9, 53, 60~2. 196. Maintenance, 306.Impact, 21-22. Marketing the manager, 285-286.Implement, 5.68.216. Markov chains. 168-170,301.Independent variables, 196-198. Mental set, 109.Induction, 56-58.119,139,199,242. Models (detenninistic). chp. 10,219.Influence. 2. Meeting - see group.Infonnation. 22, 25. 31. 33,60,69.108. Memory - see biases, 105, 122. 129,225.116,118,129.142.225.259-260.265. Metaphor. 2, 5,8-13.109,210.221-222.303.283, 286. Methodology - see evidence.Input, 213,303-305. Motivation, 11,20,23.53.68-76.Insects, 55. Multicollinearity. 192-193.Instrument - see questionnaire. 89. Multiple methods - see eclectic. 31-32. 219,Intentions. 106. 244,300-302,307.Interaction, 35,66, 113-116,263. Multiple regression, 193.206.Interpersonal-see compatible, 25, 70-71, Myth, (fable). 3, 39. 56.74,77. Needs, 71.Interpretive - see qualitative, 6. 32.34. Newton, 37, 221.4345,51,112,124,222,224,244. Nominal data, 94,101-102,168.223.Interviews. chp. 6, 105-106. Nondirective, 6, 105.Intestines. 56. Nonlinear, 65.155. 165, 197.Intuitive, 7.53-54, 124. Nonresponse - see response.Institutional theory. 38, 240, 287-288. Nonnal data, 189.Jargon, 12-13. Nonns, 69-70.Jesus, 54-55, 60. Objectives, 4.19,37,39.44.92,Judgment - see biases, 32-34. 53, 86-87, 209,243.307.lOS, 118, 130, 152. 196.202,205,220, Ogam.59.222.224-225. Opinion, 106-107,302.King. 53-54.60. Optimism, 106, 112-113. 128, 173,261.King Kong. 188. Oral, 23.K-S test, 189. Ordinal data, 95.Language, 6-7,9. 19.98. Organization, 2.9, 11. 13, 18,21.65,Leadership, 14.17,65,242. 67.69.73, 110, 118.213,216,219.Letter (cover). 90. 225. 303.Learning. 13,83,109,124,218,222.307. Outliers, 185-190, 192.Linear, 163-165. Overload, 22, 142.Listening, 105. Participation - see compatibility, 67-68, 206.Liver, 56, 62. Peer. 2, 21, 68.Logistic curve. 155. Perfonnance, 21, 25-26, 34, 66-68, 70,103,Logit, 191. 125.217,297.

337

Subject Index

Personality, 5,9,53. Satisfaction. 72.Persuade - see convince, 9,14.91-92,219. Saturation - see overload, 215.Pessimist, 106,128,173,261. Scale data, 95-96,101.Plan. 1.5.174. Scatter diagram, 198.Planning, 25-26, 58,60-62,105-107. Scenario, 3, 8. 60-61, 82-87, 205.Poetry, 9. Scientific. 33-36,40-43, 57, 81, 89-90,Political risk. '21)7. 105,119,125.220-221,224,260.Post-monem. 113.297. Seasonality,139-140.Probabilities. 57-58,122-129.211,242. Shaman, 53-62.Probit, 191,241. Share (stock) market, 6,126,170,180, '21)3.Process - see system, 214. 205.263-266,283,301,308.Profit, chp. 13,99.101.180,211,220,284. Shock. 178.Profit quality, 264. Semi-expens, 105.Proof, 7. Signalling, 284-285, 287.Quadratic curve, 150, 157, 164-167. Simulation (regression). 181-192.Quality. 10-11.33,66.68.303. Simultaneous causality, 197.Quantitative. 7.33-34.47.87.224-225,131, Sine curve, 159.217.221.224,283. SiMer. 112, 128.Qualitative - see interpretive, 34,48-49, Small world, 133.105.207,218,283. Smoothing, 144-154.QuestioMaires. chp. 5.43-44. 105, 115. Smoothing period, 144-146, 149.Questions, 92, 96-97. Spreadsheet - see LOTUS, 211-215, 218.Random numbers. 52,60,62. 125, 181. Statistics, 4,7-8,32,45.57-58,85-86.Randomness, 93.139.140-145,152,174, 99,110.189.214,221.176.199. Stepwise - see regression, 193-194.Rank data, 95. Stock, 1,61,75, 108-109, 154, 173,239,266.Ratio data, 77, 94.101-102. Structure, 77, 116.Ratios (accounting). 237-240. Subjectivity - see judgment and interpretive.Regression, 51.125-126,163-167,176, Success. 4. 20.180-199.207.223,242. Surprise, 3.113,121.Regression (heuristic). 199. Survey - see questioMaire. 89, 196,289-296.Relevance, 16. System. 2, 9, 13,27., 116, 306.Report, chp. 1. Tarot, 54. 59, 62.Responses, 17,25.91,117. Testing. WI, 175-177.207,260,293-295,307.Ritual, 59, 62, 68. Theory. 36-39,41,54,61,70,72,221,224-225,Role Playing, 76-79. 240,283-289.295,309.Rune stone, 59. 62. Theoretical shapes, 139-142, 155.Rulebase.208. Trend,30, 139-143, 146, 154,242.Saint, 112. 128. Trains, 208-209.Sample. 90, 121. Triangulation. 32.

338

Subject Index

Truth, 44, 244.Turing test, 210.Turkey, 56, 139, 178.Validity. 32, 92.102-103.176-177,203.219.Variables. 196-198,213-214,222,242.266.Visual, 23.Vivid, 2. 7. 9-11, 61-62,86,129.Unobtrusive. 42-43.

339