M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede

Regional Case StudiesMiddle East

Climate and Society

Seminar 14.12.2011

M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede

M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede

The Middle East Conflict

Water resources are a conflict

source!

Water resources can create peace!

M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede

M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede

Overview

Conflict Geography→ Water Resources in the Region Historical overview Situation today Climate Change and the Conflict

M.P.S. 2011-2012

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Conflict Geography

Jordan River

Sea of Galilee

West Bank aquifier

Coastal aquifier

M.P.S. 2011-2012

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Historical Conflict

1948 Founding of Israel 1956 Suez Canal Crisis 1967 6-Day War 1973 Yom Kippur War 1994 Peace Tready Israel-Jordan (water treaty)

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M.P.S. 2011-2012

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The 6-Day War

A war for water?

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Situation today

Israel controls: - West Bank Aquifers- Coastal Aquifers (Not Gaza)- Sea of Galilee- Golan Heights

Water distribution conflict with the Palestinians

M.P.S. 2011-2012

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Situation Today

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Agriculture and domestic consumption

• Israel‘s agriculture is heavily subsidized.

• Domestic use of water is considerably higher in Israel than in the Palestinian areas.

• The securitization of fresh water sources makes water part of the political conflict.

M.P.S. 2011-2012

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M.P.S. 2011-2012

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Water consumption in Israel

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Impact of Climate Change

Annual rainfall volume in Israel (billion cubic metres, BCM). Source: Israeli Meteorological Service in Israel’s 2nd

National Communication on Climate Change (INC 2010: 37), which is in the public domain.

M.P.S. 2011-2012

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M.P.S. 2011-2012

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Possible Impact of Climate Change

Forecast for the Upper Jordan Catchment(UJC):

Two time slices(1961-90 and 2070-99) of the global climate scenario B2 of ECHAM4 were dynamically downscaled with the meteorological model MM5 in two nesting steps of 54 km and 18 km resolution.(Suppan 2008, Impact on Climate Change on Water availability in the Near East)

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Upper Jordan Catchment

- Annual temperature increases up to 4.5° C and 25 % decreases in mean annual precipitation

in the mountainous part of the UJC.- Total runoff at the outlet of thecatchment is predicted to decrease

by 23 %, and is accompanied by significant decreasing roundwaterrecharge.

M.P.S. 2011-2012

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Relative change in the median annual precipitation in % Expected absolute change in the median annual in Celsius

2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990 (REGIONALE AUSWIRKUNGDER KLIMAÄNDERUNG AUF DIEWASSERVERFÜGBARKEIT IN KLIMASENSITIVEN GEBIETEN

Harald Kunstmann,)

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Possible impact on the conflict

- Less precipitation(total)- Less groundwater- Higher average temperature- Growing population

Indicators for future conflict?

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Opportunities and Threats

- Negative: 6-Day War.Securitization of water.

- Positive: Treaty on water between Israel and Jordan.Red Dead Canal?Cooperation between Israel and Palestine on water issues.

M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede

M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede

Thank you for your attention!

Water resources are a conflict

source!

Water resources can create peace!

→ What do you think?

M.P.S. 2011-2012

Nils Schaede